There Are Some MAJOR Discrepancies in the Orbit Projections of ELEnin

oh really.... its still close for something that big.

damn... space inst a safe place

We understand what you are trying to say but you fail to understand the source you sited simply made up the numbers, as you see nearly 3 months before they said JPL was off by 200% when they put up no such thing. I understand one can use time machine to go back and view the source, have you done this?

reply to post by Illustronic


What source, I´m talking about the info from the OP, are you saying it is not coming from NASA itself?

I don´t think you understand at all, or won´t.

Originally posted by CaptainInstaban
So, what are you saying, is that the OP is wrong.

The first image in the OP obviously does not show a closest approach. It appears that there will be a closer approach than the positions shown, just by following the paths of the trajectories.

I'm not even accusing the OP of being wrong. The OP doesn't even claim the first image is a closest approach, though it seems to be implied, and maybe that implication is incorrect.

I'm accusing the OP of looking at something which appears to be a closest approach in the 2nd image, and comparing it to something which is not the closest approach in the first image. It's comparing apples to oranges. Can't you see elenin hasn't even reached Earth's orbit yet in the first image? How could that possibly be a closest approach? It's not, you can tell just by looking at the position of Elenin it will get closer than is shown in the image, probably to about the same distance as shown in the second image.

reply to post by Arbitrageur


First of, that qoute was not replied to you, so I don´t know why you act like I was talking about you or to you, I replied to Phage, maybe you logged on to the wrong profile.

And you don´t understand, at all.

The two pics are of the predicted position of the same day, 17 Oct. 2011. One from March, the other from July?.

Because of the deviation in the prediction, elenin is another position in the pics, like duh.

The point is, that the predicted course was off, and by a biiger distance than the predicted closest approach.

Actually it is a hyperbolic orbit. Elenin has never been here before and will never return.

Comet Elenin's orbit is only hyperbolic (and very slightly at that) with respect to THE CENTRE OF THE SUN. However, the centre of the Sun is NOT the centre of mass of the Solar System. The giant planets (particularly Jupiter and Saturn) perturb the Sun, and cause it to move out of position with respect to the Solar System barycentre (the TRUE centre of mass). Calculations of the ORIGINAL orbit (before the comet entered the planetary region) have revealed that C/2010 X1 Elenin is a new arrival from the Oort Cloud, where it will have been perturbed by a passing star hundreds of thousands of years ago.

However, the story does not end there. Gravitational perturbations by Saturn (December 2008) and Jupiter (December 2012) will reduce the orbital period to approximately 11900 years. Therefore, Comet Elenin WILL return.

I did not need to see this just now as the date seemed familiar. And before my morning coffee....
Right next to my birthdate on my drivers licence
Clearly says : Date of Expiry 17/10/11 What do they know ? ?

Originally posted by Phage
There is something odd about your images.
In the first one, "March 30,2011", the distances are in the format:
- Earth: 0.463 AU - Sun 1.073 AU
(Repeated three times).

In the second one the format is
Earth Distance: 0.234 AU
Sun Distance: 0.957 AU

As had been shown, there are examples on ATS of earlier images from the orbit diagram (one from March 30). None of them show a close approach distance of 0.463 and none of them show the distance format in your first image.

Something's screwy.

And no, the orbit calculations have not changed that much.

edit on 8/11/2011 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Is this another one of your hit and run hope nobody asks about it- comments?

So you found a little something to discredit the info, and, again you try to imply that you are delivering factual information, but never backing it up with anything at all.

When I come up with my argument you post all sorts of links, but refuse to discuss what I said, and give a direct answer, suggesting there´s all sorts of problems with sources, but not saying anything at all.

I can only assume that the distance of 0.463AU was the calculated close approach distance of Elenin to Earth based on a limited number of observations. However, I would have expected enough observations to have been made up to March 30 to enable a calculation with a far greater degree of accuracy than that. Nevertheless, the orbit of Comet Elenin is now well established, and the close approach to Earth will occur on 2011 October 16 at a distance of 0.2338AU. This will not change!

Ahh, Elenin, just hit us or pass us, I'm sick of this.

Following quote taken from the OPs images (disclaimer for the applet being used)

The applet was implemented using 2-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances

anyone bother to use the suggested "horizons" program to check? didn't think so.

reply to post by aginstitall


Clever guy eh?
I was simply wondering will the Moon be between Earth and Elenin or,will the Earth be between The Moon and Elenin?

reply to post by phishyblankwaters


It's also funny for them to use those applets when it calculates based off the actual estimated size/mass of the object. Considering they keep saying that Elenin is way bigger than we're being told, etc, it seems silly to try and doom and gloom us with this.

Of course, orbital projections for newly discovered objects will always fluctuate until they've been able to track them long enough. So even if this plotting is accurate and not somehow 'influenced', it doesn't necessarily mean anything.

Originally posted by Phage
There is something odd about your images.
In the first one, "March 30,2011", the distances are in the format:
- Earth: 0.463 AU - Sun 1.073 AU
(Repeated three times).

In the second one the format is
Earth Distance: 0.234 AU
Sun Distance: 0.957 AU

As had been shown, there are examples on ATS of earlier images from the orbit diagram (one from March 30). None of them show a close approach distance of 0.463 and none of them show the distance format in your first image.

Something's screwy.

And no, the orbit calculations have not changed that much.

edit on 8/11/2011 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Phage, thanks for showing up. However, you didn't read it right. The first image is the Projection AS OF March. then I fastfowarded the animation to OCT 17, 2011.

The second image is the projection AS OF today. then i fastfowarded the animation to OCT 17, 2011.

The differnce between the two is 35 MILLION km. That is quit a margin of error no??!!?!

Originally posted by trueperspective
Phage, thanks for showing up. However, you didn't read it right. The first image is the Projection AS OF March. then I fastfowarded the animation to OCT 17, 2011.

The second image is the projection AS OF today. then i fastfowarded the animation to OCT 17, 2011.

The differnce between the two is 35 MILLION km. That is quit a margin of error no??!!?!

If, as I suspect, you got this 'stuff' from the Elenin.org page, then the orbit viewer is broken, it is missing the Stereo A and Stereo B orbits, which is why double 'Earth - Sun' data is visible in the bottom left. Correct data can be found here Elenin + Stereo A +Stereo B

Sorry to be the party pooper and burst the 'doom seekers' bubble.

However, if you are seeking doom, I can point you in a new direction.

st.

EDIT: Here is an image comparing both webpage source code, you can see the problem, more so if you are familiar with webpage coding. If image is cut off, try opening in a new window.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/67d4973afd73.png[/atsimg]

One way or another, I have no doubts we will see this in our skies when it's closest to earth. Worst case senario (which I don't believe will happen at all), if it hit earth there's nothing any of you can do about that no matter how well you all think you are prepared.

2011 will come and go, as will 2012 and 2013. Don't panic.

Sorry to be the party pooper and burst the 'doom seekers' bubble.

reply to post by SatoriTheory


Was that really that nessescary?

People are just rying to figure out what´s up, based on the observations.

Originally posted by SatoriTheory

Originally posted by trueperspective
Phage, thanks for showing up. However, you didn't read it right. The first image is the Projection AS OF March. then I fastfowarded the animation to OCT 17, 2011.

The second image is the projection AS OF today. then i fastfowarded the animation to OCT 17, 2011.

The differnce between the two is 35 MILLION km. That is quit a margin of error no??!!?!

If, as I suspect, you got this 'stuff' from the Elenin.org page, then the orbit viewer is broken, it is missing the Stereo A and Stereo B orbits, which is why double 'Earth - Sun' data is visible in the bottom left. Correct data can be found here Elenin + Stereo A +Stereo B

Sorry to be the party pooper and burst the 'doom seekers' bubble.

However, if you are seeking doom, I can point you in a new direction.

st.

EDIT: Here is an image comparing both webpage source code, you can see the problem, more so if you are familiar with webpage coding. If image is cut off, try opening in a new window.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/67d4973afd73.png[/atsimg]

edit on 12-8-2011 by SatoriTheory because: Adding Image.

Ultimately, the two sets of data are both from the offical JPL site.

ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

Are you just making things up? The data is from the same source and has changed multiple times.

THEY DON"T KNOW WHERE ELENIN IS GOING!!!!!!!!!!

reply to post by bluemirage5


It would be nice if we could, comets are perty heh. Chances are that it's not going to be bright enough to be viewable with the naked eye.

reply to post by trueperspective


While there is still something screwy with that first image I would like to point out one reason there is a discrepancy. October 17 was not the original date of perigree. As more observations have been made and more accurate numbers acquired the orbital characteristics have had to be changed. The current time of close-approach is October 16 at 19:50 UTC. This time is accurate to less than a minute. There is a .00002 AU difference between the maximum and minimum distances. So, the distance of perigree hasn't changed, merely the tie of perigree. However, this does not answer all of the problems with that original picture, such as why its format is so off.

Originally posted by trueperspective
Ultimately, the two sets of data are both from the offical JPL site.

ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

Are you just making things up? The data is from the same source and has changed multiple times.

THEY DON"T KNOW WHERE ELENIN IS GOING!!!!!!!!!!

edit on 12-8-2011 by trueperspective because: spelling

Well you would think the data would match, but clearly they dont. Data input error, or change of data and someone hasnt updated. I do know which. Either way, Elenin will be approx. 0.23AU from Earth around 17/18th October.

Here is an image of JPL's inline data so you can compare with the data given in the image above.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b7fd134be38f.png[/atsimg]

It's probably going to land in your back yard, maybe you should spend all your money, even sell up while your home is still worth something.

reply to post by CaptainInstaban


The variable that needs to be looked at is not time of perigree, but distance. On March 30 Elenin was still in the asteroid belt and thus potentially subjected to a number of perturbations. As more observations are made and as it gets closer we also get a more accurate estimate on how fast it is going. This is going to change the date of perigree. This means that on March 30, October 17 was not the estimated date for when Elenin is closest. The estimated distance of perigree however, has remained constant. On January 17, the distance was estimated at .24 AU. Presently the distance is estimated at .233. This equates to a change of 2.9% over the course of 7 months. I'd say that their estimates of perigree distance have been spot on the entire time and that there is absolutely no risk for impact. In fact based on 2218 observations the margin of error for perigree is .0092%.