There Are Some MAJOR Discrepancies in the Orbit Projections of ELEnin

reply to post by Xcalibur254

The variable that needs to be looked at is not time of perigree, but distance. On March 30 Elenin was still in the asteroid belt and thus potentially subjected to a number of perturbations. As more observations are made and as it gets closer we also get a more accurate estimate on how fast it is going. This is going to change the date of perigree.

You don´t have to explain what I´m seeing here, I did not say anything about the date of perigee not changing, did I?

I actually said to to another poster that Elenin was in a different position in the two pics, because it had deviated from the predicted course. It´s no more then logical that the perigree date also shifts.

The point is once again, that there was quite some deviation between the March and later dates, so much, that Elenin could´ve been on a collission course with Earth for all they knew, yet NASA and lot of people here were claiming that it was sure that it was not on a collission course with Earth.

This means that on March 30, October 17 was not the estimated date for when Elenin is closest. The estimated distance of perigree however, has remained constant. On January 17, the distance was estimated at .24 AU. Presently the distance is estimated at .233. This equates to a change of 2.9% over the course of 7 months. I'd say that their estimates of perigree distance have been spot on the entire time and that there is absolutely no risk for impact. In fact based on 2218 observations the margin of error for perigree is .0092%.

The accuracy in the predicted perigee is not relevant at all, in this case You either don´t understand what i am talking about, or you are trying to focus on that point on purpose.

The OP showed that judging from the predicted Oct. 17 locations, there was quite a big difference in the predictions.

I sure wasn´t talking about perigree predictions, and I think the OP was neither.

I understand one can use time machine to go back and view the source, have you done this?

Actually, for the sake of seeing what was there, I did. I used the "Wayback Machine" on this site. (Please note that this is a NASA site).

A couple of interesting things:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/a2cef929e734.jpg[/atsimg]


1. this is a screenshot of the Wayback machine archive list. You can clearly see that this site has been crawled and archived 399 times since 1997. There is a bar graph at the top that shows the number of times each year a snapshot was taken. Why is it that in the previous years, specifically 2006 - 2009, there are several crawls for each year, but for all of 2010 there was only 1? And if you look at the calendar, the blue circled date is the date of the archive/snapshot (May 27, 2010), which would have been before the alleged discovery of this comet.

So I tried it anyway and put in the comet's designation: c/2010 x1 and I got this:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/56617136b984.jpg[/atsimg]

So, I went to find out about this robots.txt file:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/20418edb66d5.jpg[/atsimg]

Ok, that's pretty interesting. This site doesn't allow this information to be archived?

Conclusion: Even if one used the internet time machine to go back to try and replicate the information from the OP you can't. This particular NASA site does allow that information to be archived. It alludes to the well accepted notion that NASA is trying to hide something.

Interestingly enough I also tried www.elenin.org through the Wayback Machine, and they don't have that one archived either.

I am neither a doomsayer or a naysayer, just presenting facts regarding something someone said. All I know is that the information that we have about Elenin is incomplete, and the "history" of evidence to support either claim seems to be systematically being erased.

Until the end of the month any and all of this is simply hype and speculation. Around the 28th to the 1st of September if there is something as close as it's going to be and roughly the size of Jupiter in the sky and visible. All the chemtrails in the world couldn't hide something that size I don't think. I'm no expert but it would have to be pretty big in relation to distance and size. Roughly 5 times the size of earth millions of miles closer than Jupiter is now makes me believe it will be more than just a spec in the sky. I'm sure someone can do the math and give an estimate. If something is visible and a buzz being created I'll start to wonder. Holograms cant cast sunlight out I don't believe...it's a waiting game.... 10 16 11 isn't that the day that Rev. Camping moved his loldoomsday too?

reply to post by CaptainInstaban


I have finally found an image of the JPL orbit diagram of Elenin from March 30. As has already been demonstrated numerous times in this thread the initial image is wrong. Elenin was never predicted to be .4 AU away on October 17, especially not on March 30. So, the discrepancies you are arguing about are non-existent. While this image is showing the orbit data from October 18, one can be assured that a comet cannot travel .2 AU in a day.


Source

reply to post by Xcalibur254


Do you have a link to that pic, or is the OP pic fake, and yours automatically the real deal? Why couildn´t you find an Oct. 17 pic?

Originally posted by CaptainInstaban
reply to post by Xcalibur254

 

Do you have a link to that pic, or is the OP pic fake, and yours automatically the real deal? Why couildn´t you find an Oct. 17 pic?

The OP's pic is taken from a broken java applet on a non-official webpage. The java applet is being given incorrect data, which I pointed out in a previous post.

st.

reply to post by ThreeSistersofLoveandLigh


Wow, I didn't knwo the internet could do that. Awesome. But, Elenin.org has the old predictions right on their page. Just scroll down and look for yourself. I didn't do anythign that anybody else could not do RIGHT NOW...

If everyone would just verify my data from the source and stop making fun of my horrible cropping skills, we would be having a different debate.

Here are the source website. GO LOOK IT UP!!

elenin.org... & ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

I want an explaination as to why there is such a massive difference.

reply to post by CaptainInstaban


There is no October 17 picture because as of March 30 perigree was estimated to be on October 18. All of these Elenin threads have always been concerned with the perigree, so there is no point for people to post pictures of Elenin's orbit the day before perigree. And I did provide a link to the picture. Luckily it's on ATS so it's timestamped and everything. Furthermore, I know that picture is accurate because it is corroborated by other posts from the same day. People from both sides of the argument said on March 30 that Elenin's perigree was on October 18 and that it would be .23 AU away. The picture in the OP however is not corroborated by anything and comes from a website that strongly pushes the "Elenin is going to kill us all" and "NASA is lying about Elenin" angles.

If everyone would just verify my data from the source and stop making fun of my horrible cropping skills, we would be having a different debate.

reply to post by trueperspective


I´m afraid we wouldn´t even then.

They will just keep attacking the source, since that is the best option for them right now.

Originally posted by trueperspective
I want an explaination as to why there is such a massive difference.

I have given explanations previously.

The java applet for the orbit viewer, on the Elenin.org page, is being given the wrong data, so position of elenin is incorrect. Elenin.org is not an official website.

It is as simple as that.

st.

reply to post by trueperspective


I've seen no one mocking your cropping. I have however seen you ignore the verifiable evidence we have presented that the elenin.org picture is wrong. Elenin was never predicted to be .4 AU away on October 17. SatoriTheory has shown that elenin.org used a broken Java applet and I have provided a picture of the JPL orbit diagram of Elenin from March 30 showing the estimates for October 18 and it is consistent with current estimates. The problem here is not with NASA or JPL, but with elenin.org providing faulty information. Once again, there are no glaring discrepancies between the March 30 estimates and the current estimates.

reply to post by Xcalibur254


Thanks for posting substantial evidence that the original March prediction of Oct 18 was 0.233 AU, and that the Oct 17 pic in the OP is either, fake, false or that Elenin has a propulsion system.

Good job.

Originally posted by Xcalibur254
reply to post by trueperspective

 

I've seen no one mocking your cropping. I have however seen you ignore the verifiable evidence we have presented that the elenin.org picture is wrong. Elenin was never predicted to be .4 AU away on October 17. SatoriTheory has shown that elenin.org used a broken Java applet and I have provided a picture of the JPL orbit diagram of Elenin from March 30 showing the estimates for October 18 and it is consistent with current estimates. The problem here is not with NASA or JPL, but with elenin.org providing faulty information. Once again, there are no glaring discrepancies between the March 30 estimates and the current estimates.

Wow, so the guys that made the elenin.org site created a program that mirrors the JPL program perfectly AND has the wrong info that actually shows Elenin FARTHER away.

Its the offical JPL site that has it closer to us.

If elenin.org was trying to fearmonger wouldn't they fudge the numbers to have it smash into us.

Your logic is extremely flawed.

reply to post by trueperspective


The pic he posted was poted in March here on ATS, so judging from that picture the course hasn´t changed that much.

reply to post by trueperspective


I still don´t get why your pic would be off, I can hardly believe it´s because of a Java error, i also find it hard to believe someone there would fake the pic, so I don´t know.

Originally posted by CaptainInstaban
reply to post by trueperspective

 

I still don´t get why your pic would be off, I can hardly believe it´s because of a Java error, i also find it hard to believe someone there would fake the pic, so I don´t know.

edit on 12-8-2011 by CaptainInstaban because: (no reason given)

Its not a pic. The elenin.org site has a fully interactive animation same as the JPL site. I just took a screen shot from it.

reply to post by CaptainInstaban

It was not a "JAVA error".
The applet was given incorrect orbital elements. Garbage in, garbage out.

reply to post by trueperspective


I checked your link but didn´t have the required plug in.

If it is an animation, I can see how a Java error could mess it up perhaps.

reply to post by Phage


Jeah whatever, computer related thingy.

The applet was given incorrect orbital elements. Garbage in, garbage out.

As in on purpose, or by a computer error?

reply to post by trueperspective


It could simply be they input some data wrong and that through off the model or it could be a deliberate hoax. I can't say one way or the other. The reason they had to write their own program is because if they had simply copied the program from the JPL it would give them the current orbit characteristics as opposed to those from March 30. To further illustrate that it is wrong here is what elenin.org's March 30 simulator shows for October 18:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/375d32d8b1ef.jpg[/atsimg]

Now compare that to the image I posted showing what the actual JPL simulator showed for October 18 on March 30. I'm leaning towards the fact that Elenin.org just screwed up in their programming as opposed to them outright lying.