An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Originally posted by space cadet
I forgot to mention or ask if any of you heard about the chilean volcano opening up two new calderas? Yep, it is starting to sound more like a supervolcano, I know I watched a few years ago a show about Yellowstone, and how it could open up more than one caldera at a time, part of what makes it a supervolcano.
[edit on 15-6-2008 by space cadet]

Hi space cadet...

regarding your other post on the previous page, none of us are laughing at your pains...because we know what it's like. Okay, we might grin a little but believe me, you have our understanding.

About supervolcanoes. Fortunately these are pretty rare animals. They don't look like the usual "coned" volcanoes at all, but more like a huge, collapsed crater which is typically many miles across. While normal volcanoes are formed by gradually building up a cone from ejecta, ash and lava, supervolcanoes are formed relatively rapidly when a magma chamber in the earth erupts and sends a massive amount of material into the air. After it's all calmed down again the crater is left. Because it's been many thousands of years since the last supervolcano eruption, these craters have weathered down and so they've lost their sharp "edges" and it can be difficult for most people to even recognize what they are. That's the case with Yellowstone.

As you would recall from reports about Yellowstone, when one of these things erupts its effects are massively devastating and can affect the whole planet. So, we are lucky that the volcano in Chile is just a "normal" volcano, like Vesuvius or Mt St Helen's...

Forgot to mention about the calderas... Some normal volcanoes can and do develop multiple calderas but that still doesn't make them supervolcanoes...

I'm not down-playing the Chile volcano's effects though. Any violently active "normal" volcano is still extremely dangerous to those who are within some miles but it won't have a huge impact on the world at large -- which the Yellowstone supervolcano will certainly do when it eventually blows up again... I say "when" because scientists are pretty sure it will but it's hard to say if it's likely in the near future or thousands of years from now. That's one reason we are trying to obtain accurate and reliable data, especially in respect of seismic events that may be volcanic in origin: if anything untoward is happening with Yellowstone then we'd like to know about it...

Edited for glitches etc.

[edit on 15-6-2008 by JustMike]

Originally posted by space cadet
I would like to report that I am still having a strange pain in my left buttock ( go ahead, laugh it out), but it is getting worse, and tonight my ears are ringing in a whole new tone, the tone was different when I woke up today, it is more high pitched now.

Ice down your low back and tell me if it goes away. You may have pulled a muscle and now it is pinching a nerve in your spinal area. I am an expert in back problems. Ice always works.

reply to post by JustMike


I would suggest everyone take a trip to Kona, Hawaii and see the volcanoes there. You will learn allot about them. I drove to the main park at Kilauea and I was like where is the volcano? My dad goes your on it.
As we walked over to the sight seeing binoculars I saw that we were on the rim of the main caldera and it was massive to say the least. This is what I was right on the edge of. hvo.wr.usgs.gov...


Later we walked across the lava fields were it was running into the ocean with scientist from the park taking samples and we almost got trapped by a new lava flow that suddenly came out of the hardened lava, It is running under you the whole time you are walking around there and its pretty freaky.

You are literally taking a huge risk by being out there even with the park rangers and I'm surprised that they let people go out there. It was the most amazing thing to see.
I will try and find them, The pictures and e-mail them to Kat so she can post them here to share with you all. Luckily there were no quakes at the time because I was hungover from partying the night before and would have had a heart attack.

Those pictures of the Chilean volcano erupting are evil looking.

reply to post by Sky watcher


Sky, I'd love to see those volcano pix and put a couple up on the thread.

Space, how is your back/hip? Watch the EQ maps.... keep track of your aches, the date/time, then what seismic events happen and email Charlotte King for more information on precursors.

Mexico hit-- Mexico, 4.2, 6/15

This is interesting. Wavs of what earthquakes sound like.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Also cool, listen to a volcanic harmonic tremor (eerie) and a variety of seismic events.

/4lrjpk

[edit on 6/15/08 by kattraxx]

Originally posted by kattraxx
This is interesting. Wavs of what earthquakes sound like.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Also cool, listen to a volcanic harmonic tremor (eerie) and a variety of seismic events.

/4lrjpk

[edit on 6/15/08 by kattraxx]

OK that just proves that hell is under ground in the bottomless pit That is freaky!!

Does that not sound just like Art Bells, Mels hole?

[edit on 15-6-2008 by Sky watcher]

Prediction: San Francisco, probably the Bay area and larger than the 3.1 on Monday June 9. (Over a mag 4 -- but I'm a bit out with my mag predictions lately so don't shoot me if I'm wrong on that.) Time window: my usual range is within three days but I expect it's more likely to happen sooner in that time window rather than later, perhaps even within 24 hours.

I'll respond to some other posts later (eg sky watcher's fascinating one about the Hawaii volcano) but have no time now.

Time of posting this is Monday June 16 at 6:53 am UTC, 8:53 am my local time.

Mike.

I am still experiencing ringing in the ears, I also awoke with a headache today around 3:00 EST, the headache pain was mostly in the back of my head, and right temple area. I am currently experiencing pressure in my head, rushing sounds in my ears, it is 2:55 am EST.

Hi all,
I just wanted to note that I think something big is going to happen in the next day or two. I woke up this morning feeling such an incredible amount of dread, and actually hearing ambulance and fire truck sirens off in the distance. Eerily it seemed like a precursor of things yet to come. I also feel an incredible amount of sadness as well. Last time I felt like this Illinois had the 5.2 quake.

I'm wondering if with all the recent Midwest flooding, we might be due for another one. Especially as the water makes its way down through the Mississippi.

Whether it's an earthquake or not, something big is looming. I just wanted to post this for the record, especially since I didn't document my feelings last time.

What the??? Now we have a mag 3.1 in Utah that occurred 1:27 Sunday afternoon (local time Utah), but I am sure that this was not on the US map even earlier today (Monday). Did anyone see this quake on the US map yesterday??

reply to post by michigangirl

Many thanks for the post, michigangirl... You are assuredly not the only one who has been having such feelings. These are worrying times indeed.

I follow what you are saying about the floods but are you actually feeling that something seismic is imminent in your region -- or is it not possible to pin it down that specifically?

Edited for typos... Fumblefingers strikes again...

[edit on 16/6/08 by JustMike]

JustMike...I'm not sure if this "something big" will be seismic or not. All I can tell you is that it feels the same as before. In fact, I could totally just sit down and weep today. Not like a good I'm depressed cry, but like my soul is weeping for humanity cry. I'm shaky, stomach is upset, feel impending doom, and have one of my nasty migraines starting up this afternoon. Last time I felt this, it was the following morning that Illinois had, and we felt, the 5.2 quake.

I hope it ends up being nothing but an "off day," but honestly my gut tells me something is brewing...

reply to post by JustMike


I was checking maps frequently yesterday and never saw this Utah 3.1 pop up.

I don't get how USGS manages the maps. In fact, there was very little red yesterday. It seems EQs turn blue in minutes.

reply to post by JustMike

Prediction: San Francisco, probably the Bay area and larger than the 3.1 on Monday June 9. (Over a mag 4 -- but I'm a bit out with my mag predictions lately so don't shoot me if I'm wrong on that.) Time window: my usual range is within three days but I expect it's more likely to happen sooner in that time window rather than later, perhaps even within 24 hours.

I'm with you on this prediction, JustMike, based on a couple things. And SpaceCadet is getting the SF bay area too, I suspect.

I hope it's not bad. Most of my best friends are still there. I think I will email them, just in case... to stay off BART and bridges, etc.

reply to post by michigangirl

I completely understand what you mean by the difference between just feeling "down" depressed and this sort of feeling. I had it this morning. Now I just feel...I don't know what. It's like a "lost" feeling. Not as bad as I had before the Dec 2004 Tsunami, but still not a good feeling at all...

reply to post by kattraxx

There was a very unusual spread of reds yesterday on the USGS map but this was mid-morning to lunchtime (my time) if I recall, which would be well after midnight to the wee small hours where you are. These were all very small quakes, a line of them from SoCal up to the mid-northern region then across and into Nevada. I think I counted nine reds at one stage, meaning nine small quakes within an hour. Then they progressively cleared to blue. But yes, I am certain that the Utah 3.1 was not on the map yesterday.

Hmmm...wasn't there a mag 3.1 in Utah a couple of days back that was under Salt lake, but it suddenly disappeared from the maps? I'm sure it's noted in the thread somewhere. Now this quake (exactly the same magnitude) is just north of the lake. It's not sitting on any of the faults that show in the local region map.

reply to post by kattraxx

Gosh darn I must be slipping...It wasn't a mag 3.1 that went missing in Utah a few days back, it was a 3.3...

Sky watcher picked up on it and Kat got the screen shot before "they" took it off the map and removed it from their (accessible) data files. Details in Kat's post above, with link to Sky watcher's as well...

Anyways, the "disappeared" quake is/was very close to the currently posted one. Interesting, that. Just like the two missing Wyoming quakes (also low three nags as well) were close together. Under 40 miles if I recall. And the one in NE Nevada on June 11 (that also went missing but we got the screen shots ) -- that was a 3.1 as well.

All low-mag 3 range....

Do I see a pattern emerging?

[edit on 16/6/08 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike


Maybe I haven't been following all the EQ maps long enough, but what I have seen in the past month or so, is that earthquakes in the Western U.S. tend to disappear. Perhaps it's as SkyWatcher has said and these EQs are near strategic military installations. Or maybe something else is going on.

USGS has a FAQ section where they "explain" deleted EQs. I still think they should leave the EQ info available with an explanation as to why it was deleted-- mining explosion, etc. Why erase every single trace of the deleted EQ?

And SkyWatcher is right about EQs going from red to blue in minutes as opposed to an hour.

Hey everyone!
I have something interesting to add here. When I joined this site, it came as no surprise to read that the USGS was changing earthquake locations and deleting files. I lived in West Hills, about 3 miles away from the epicenter of the Northridge quake...and I'll say this...that was NO 6.8!!! In fact, Cal Tech published in the L.A. times following the quake "local seismic readings for the greater L.A. area".
Due to liquefaction and different soil/rock densities, different water-tables all around L.A. it showed how some places were experiencing 11, 12, even 14 on the Richter Scale. I'm sure I don't have to explain to you all how that's possible. ;-) The most interesting thing was, the initial data released was that the Northridge quake was a 7.1. In California, the government (FEMA) is responsible for granting funds to cover ALL rehabilitation costs of a seismic event 7.0 or greater. Needless to say, the earthquake was "downgraded" to a 6.8 and a retraction was posted for Cal Tech's study.
Now...as for California's current state, I'm more than worried. I'm sure MOST buildings will be safe when the "big one" hits, but it's the sympathetic quakes that worry me, and I'm getting this strong feeling that it's not just quakes but we might see a return of volcanic activity in Ca and the northwest and I feel like it's coming very soon. I can't say exactly when...but we don't have long to prepare and I'm not certain any amount of preparation will help us all. Escape plans in CA are near impossible and let's face it, this place is over-populated. We're not going to have energy, food, or water enough for everyone and medical help is scarce WITHOUT a major disaster!
I'm going to keep you posted on my feelings here...but I know something's about to happen...for sure.

reply to post by kattraxx

Welcome to the thread and the aches & pains of earthquake sensitivity, Space Cadet. Which reminds me, I had S. America percursors during the night, a few times, ouch, both left and right side-- that usually means Peru, Chile, Brazil, Ecuador.

Chile, 4.7, June 16