An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Hi folks,

there's been a mag 3.4 in NthCal. (Event ID nc40219336) At the time of posting, this event has not yet been reviewed by a seismologist. I've given the link to the data page, but I have also saved images of the maps, data page and waveforms for future reference. Just for now, here's the regional map. Purely as a matter of interest, this quake is directly due west from one of the Nevada swarm locations:

good morning all, its 7:25am on tues june 17th

This morning I noticed a HUGE swarm of ants coming out of new cracks in ground between the 2 cement plates of my driveway... there is a material in between the plates, and this morning ther were 4 or 5 3 inch by 1 inch tears in the ground, not normal ant holes, not round at all.. It looked like the ground parted a little, and the ants were very very agitated.. I always have lots of ants here in reno, but never saw them in this spot before today.

stomach is acdting up and I still feel an urgency to leave, yet i dont have anywhere to go, or know why...

last night i felt another of the sustained tremors, or vibrations, in the early evening.. lasting about 10 seconds or so... my dog jumped up from a nap and couldnt get away from me for the duration.

edit---- It looks like today is starting off to be bouncy.... I left the house minutes before this one. My mother in law at home said the house creaked and popped for a second or two.
NEWEST RENO QUAKES



[edit on 17-6-2008 by damntheptb]

I'll be leaving any second, but I see an EQ of unknown magnitude not far from Modesto, CA.

Could someone save the info?

Thanks.

reply to post by kattraxx

Hi Kat, It was a mag 2.7. I saved the data page as a screen shot. Details here. Been a very busy day for the region, though. More 2-plus quakes than average by the looks and three of 3.0 or bigger. (That's just an opinion. I'd have to check records to confirm that.)

There has also just been a mag 5.8 south of Panama. This is the strongest quake in a few days so it's worth noting. I've saved the data page and local (ten-degree) map for reference if required for any research we may do in future.

alright.... been away for a few days..

ok.. someone had asked me what I was getting at about Oregon being so quiet.

if you spend time traveling around Oregon, you will know that it's covered in young volcanoes. tons and tons and tons of them.. lava fields and such..

the point I was trying to make is that with EQ activity going on in all the states around it, Oregon is too quiet. be a neat twist to see something like crater lake pop back into action.

reply to post by pynner

Yes, you make an interesting point. It seems that there is more activity -- in terms of strength of quakes at least -- in those that have been occurring offshore from Oregon along the boundaries of the Juan de Fuca plate, rather than on land. The mag 4.9 on June 14 off the coast of Oregon is a case in point. Here on the Historical Motion Tensor Solution Map for this quake (from USGS), you can clearly see the its proximity to the Blanco fracture zone, shown here as a rather zig-zag line that runs diagonally downwards. (The quake is marked by a star):



This plate is subducting under the North American plate along the Cascadia Fault and it's basically the effects of this movement that created the Cascades, or at least contributed to it via the volcanoes. The subducted plate is pushed so deep that some of it melts and comes up to the surface as magma:



So, if there is a sudden or significant increase in volcanic activity in Oregon or anywhere along the Cascades, it will likely be due in large part to the subduction effects of this plate along the Cascadia Fault. Increasing volcanic activity could therefore be taken as a signal that things are happening down deep where the plate is subducting. The worrying thing about this is that such activity could indicate the plate is ready to move, but in order for the plate to move very much, part of it that has been "stuck" for about 300 years will have to release and that would produce a pretty significant quake...and as for how much volcanic activity might result as a consequence of that, it's hard to say.

Edited for typos


[edit on 17/6/08 by JustMike]

Speak of the devil...

There has been another quake off the coast of Oregon.

Here is the data page:



I have to say that this new quake doesn't surprise me. In my prediction post on June 12 I said:

I feel most strongly about off the coast of Oregon, but not so strongly that it will be directly west of Eugene as in my previous prediction. Magnitude for this one may not be so great but I would expect over 4.0 on this occasion. Could actually be two or three close together there, both in location and time.

So, while this second quake is nothing startling (for me anyway), what bothers me is the delay in it being made public. This second quake actually occurred over 23 hours ago but it was not on the USGS maps even around two hours ago. I know this for a fact because I have screen shots. Here is the screen shot of the Nth America map that I took at 10 pm my time today (8pm -- 20:00 hrs UTC):



As you can see, the only quake off the Oregon coast is the 4.9 from June 14. I repeat, this screen shot was taken two hours ago, but the 3.8 quake occurred over 23 hours ago.

Here is the screen shot I took at 11:37 pm my time (9:37 -- 21:37 UTC), which shows the quake. I took this shot because I saw that quake was now on the map, but it wasn't there a couple of hours earlier:



One has to wonder why there was a delay of at least 21 hours in posting this quake on the USGS site...

In light of what I wrote in my previous post (ie above this one), it's reason for some concern.

Yeah, I did notice that they had delayed the EQ off of Oregon. Seems to me that they are now filtering everything... so im wondering more and more, how many are we totally missing? are there now swarms in other places?

very odd.

webbot says something is in the cards for around july 8th... in north america... so we will see I guess.

reply to post by pynner

Yes, the problem is it's hard to monitor their site 24/7. We do our best, however. It concerns me that there is not waveform data for that latest 3.8 quake, but as it's not on a plate boundary but rather is towards the center of the Juan de Fuca plate, there may be reasons why they don't want to release the data they must obviously have. They regularly release data for even smaller quakes in Calif and Oregon so that's not the reason. (Not for the Nevada swarms, though. No waveform data is available for any of them.)

Please keep an eye open for any reports of unusual or increased volcanic activity, especially in the regions we are concerned about. If you find anything, it would be great if you can both post links and save pages by whatever means. Links have a habit lately of going down, and pages just go missing. Screen shots and so on could be very useful...

I still have concerns for the Bay area (as I noted the other day).

Well it's nearly 1 am here some I'm off to bed. Shift change!

Mike

Originally posted by billbryan516

Due to liquefaction and different soil/rock densities, different water-tables all around L.A. it showed how some places were experiencing 11, 12, even 14 on the Richter Scale. I'm sure I don't have to explain to you all how that's possible. ;-) The most interesting thing was, the initial data released was that the Northridge quake was a 7.1. In California, the government (FEMA) is responsible for granting funds to cover ALL rehabilitation costs of a seismic event 7.0 or greater. Needless to say, the earthquake was "downgraded" to a 6.8 and a retraction was posted for Cal Tech's study.

Its not possible to have a 11 or 14 for that matter without the country being ripped in half just so you know. I don't doubt for a second that they downgraded the quake so they wouldn't have to help though.
Welcome to the group.

Actually..that's not necessarily true. Once you reach a certain intensity, you've maxed out. That's just how solid earth works. The magnitude is more a measure of the length of the quake.
The downgrade was from a 7.1 to a 6.8.
One of the most reliable geologic institutes in California released that information. I mean, they could have been mistaken but that's what they said.

BTW....
Full moon tonight....and I was looking at it and noticed VERY strange cloud formations...very whispy...and there were lines of them. Best description would be the vapor-trails from several jets flying side by side...although that didn't happen.
I looked at a few of the vids here and now I'm feeling a little...ok... a LOT concerned!!!!

Magnitude 4.5 - BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 4.5
Date-Time

* Wednesday, June 18, 2008 at 06:50:25 UTC
* Tuesday, June 17, 2008 at 11:50:25 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 31.832°N, 116.376°W
Depth 0.2 km (~0.1 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
Distances

* 22 km (14 miles) NE (56°) from Maneadero, Baja California, Mexico
* 23 km (15 miles) E (100°) from Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
* 76 km (47 miles) NW (308°) from Lázaro Cárdenas, Baja California, Mexico
* 99 km (61 miles) SE (142°) from Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 3.3 km (2.1 miles); depth +/- 3.9 km (2.4 miles)
Parameters Nph=022, Dmin=95 km, Rmss=0.26 sec, Gp=284°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=E
Source

* California Integrated Seismic Net:
* USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR

Event ID ci14375776



PLUS

Magnitude 2.6 - BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 2.6
Date-Time

* Wednesday, June 18, 2008 at 06:48:29 UTC
* Tuesday, June 17, 2008 at 11:48:29 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 31.882°N, 116.367°W
Depth 0 km (~0 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
Distances

* 24 km (15 miles) E (87°) from Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
* 26 km (16 miles) NE (47°) from Maneadero, Baja California, Mexico
* 79 km (49 miles) NW (312°) from Lázaro Cárdenas, Baja California, Mexico
* 95 km (59 miles) SE (139°) from Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 5.9 km (3.7 miles); depth +/- 6 km (3.7 miles)
Parameters Nph=018, Dmin=90 km, Rmss=0.29 sec, Gp=292°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=1
Source

* California Integrated Seismic Net:
* USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR

Event ID ci14375768

ooops... just noticed that the small one was first.. should have had those flipped.

not sure if any one has seen this... worth a quick read:


Earthquakes Became Five Times More Energetic, Discovers Australian Scientist Dr Tom Chalko

"New research compiled by Australianscientist Dr Tom Chalko shows that global seismic activity on Earth is nowfive times more energetic than it was just 20 years ago.

The research proves that destructive ability of earthquakes on Earthincreases alarmingly fast and that this trend is set to continue, unlessthe problem of "global warming" is comprehensively and urgently addressed.

The analysis of more than 386,000 earthquakes between 1973 and 2007recorded on the US Geological Survey database proved that the global annualenergy of earthquakes on Earth began increasing very fast since 1990."

www.istockanalyst.com...
www.earthtimes.org...

Today, there has been another quake off the coast of Oregon, this time a mag 4.0. Wave form data is not available for this quake, but here at least is the map showing the quake's location near the fracture zone:



This event is very close to the 4.9 quake that occurred on June 14. Thereis a single page of wave form data for this event.

I have saved data for this new quake for future reference.

The mag 3.8 (noted in this post) is slightly NNW from these two. (No wave form data is available for this quake.)

I must admit that though I predicted there could be two or three quakes in this region within a short time, I am not at all happy about the fact that they have occurred. In fact, they are serving to confirm some of my fears of what this may be leading up to...

I was pretty tired last night and neglected to post the Historic Motion Tensor Solutions Map (from USGS) for the Mag 3.8 mentioned in recent posts. Notice how it is not near plate boundary. It is a matter of conjecture if its location had anything to do with the delay in details of this quake being made public. (And as noted before, no waveform data is available for this one or today's 4.0, but some data is on the USGS site for the mag 4.9 of June 14.)

Anyway here's the image. The orange star marks the position of the mag 3.8 quake; the little "beach ball" things relate to Motion Tensor Solutions for previous quakes and do not represent a "swarm" of new quakes:

Originally posted by JustMike

I must admit that though I predicted there could be two or three quakes in this region within a short time, I am not at all happy about the fact that they have occurred.

In fact, they are serving to confirm some of my fears of what this may be leading up to...

First off, nice prediction, be sure to post on results page.... Second, I feel your fear about things to come, especially with all the increased activity and lack of certain info, at certain times. I just can't shake the feeling that we are at the beginning of a major event in north america, in my mind the west coast. there is way too many volcanoes, dormant or not, and geothermal areas, etc.... the list goes on, yet the experts believe this is "absolutly not volcanic in nature".
I think they know it is, as a lot of our research has uncovered odd relationships between seismic data (when it was available) from the reno area and yellowstone, mammoth lakes.. and we are not experts, just curious people who don't like "I don't know" for an answer.
Maybe they are trying to figure out when, and how they can explain to the public that an eruption or explosion is emminent...maybe they are hoping that this settles with a minor event, and buys them a few more years to figure it out.. I wish i knew the answer, but in my heart I feel something is coming soon for the area around me...
The swarm has started today a little bit away from the verdi-mogul area... it is moving.....
reno swarm...on the move

I dont like that they are starting on the west side of lake tahoe....

Hey guys ^.^, Sorry i havent been around, Lost internet for the past several days and it has been killing me becasue i have so much to read up about, and so much to talk about, some rather interesting things have happened in my eyes. Anyways i am going to go back and read the past 8 pages that i have missed out on. then i will post my reply

Here is an article confirming what I have thought about the swarms here in reno...

SWARM BIGGER THAN AT START

The swarm has NEVER stopped, regardless of what some news sources have stated, and I have never doubted that they are increasing in numbers...