Corona Virus Updates Part 2

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: DanDanDat

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: DanDanDat
So when should we be seeing infection and death rates in other countries start to rise?

A week ago. So now basically.

So you are saying the infection and death rates in other countries are mimicking that of wuhan? It is now a forgone conclusion that major cities in other nations will be on lockdown in a month or so?

Or are you saying it happens now or it won't happen?

It's not going to happen. It would have happened by now. Wuhan quarantined Jan 23rd-24th = 14 days MAXIMUM for incubation period, last people to flee Wuhan = Jan 23rd-24th + 14 days INCUBATION (assuming they got infected on the very last day in Wuhan) = Feb 6th-7th.

So you, the self proclaimed and more widely acclaimed mathematical moron are now proclaiming the all clear based on - your mathematical ineptitude.

F- You must try and at least initiate some form of electrical activity between neurons before engaging cake hole into simpleton ga-ga mode.

Dunning - you're a first class Kruger.

originally posted by: DanDanDat

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: DanDanDat
So when should we be seeing infection and death rates in other countries start to rise?

A week ago. So now basically.

So you are saying the infection and death rates in other countries are mimicking that of wuhan? It is now a forgone conclusion that major cities in other nations will be on lockdown in a month or so?

Or are you saying it happens now or it won't happen?

Well yes apologies I was being flippant. Yes I am basically saying we should be seeing these increase now or anytime soon, but it is my opinion, and it is just my opinion based on my modelling and trawling through data that we will see these numbers very gradually climb now, getting faster and faster (not going to talk about exponential curves, I think I would be hunted down because this filled many pages earlier )

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: IngyBall
a reply to: Necrose

It's almost like you don't know what you're talking about. You predicted ~2300 cases for yesterday and it was around 2800, now today it's below your expectations. I know you want to go about and dance on how the number of infections decreased dramatically, but let me bring in a bit of knowledge from meteorology that applies here. You can't call one succession of statistics a trend. For example, in weather, if the computer models change from one run to another it's not a trend, however if there is a consistent change over multiple models runs it becomes a trend. Now there was a trend of a decrease in infections per day, but that trend was broken yesterday, could a new trend start? Sure, but you can't tell that after one day of data. So before you go prancing lets wait a few days, see if a trend starts back up, or see if the numbers are just fluctuating day to day.

Just ignore what she says and call by her proper name - Dunning-Kruger

Works for everyone else.

How about you stop calling me names.

a reply to: Brick17

Thank you. I almost wish I'd never asked

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: DanDanDat

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: DanDanDat
So when should we be seeing infection and death rates in other countries start to rise?

A week ago. So now basically.

So you are saying the infection and death rates in other countries are mimicking that of wuhan? It is now a forgone conclusion that major cities in other nations will be on lockdown in a month or so?

Or are you saying it happens now or it won't happen?

It's not going to happen. It would have happened by now. Wuhan quarantined Jan 23rd-24th = 14 days MAXIMUM for incubation period, last people to flee Wuhan = Jan 23rd-24th + 14 days INCUBATION (assuming they got infected on the very last day in Wuhan) = Feb 6th-7th.

So you, the self proclaimed and more widely acclaimed mathematical moron are now proclaiming the all clear based on - your mathematical ineptitude.

F- You must try and at least initiate some form of electrical activity between neurons before engaging cake hole into simpleton ga-ga mode.

Dunning - you're a first class Kruger.

More insults please. I'm reading them out loud and it makes me wet.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: DanDanDat

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: DanDanDat
So when should we be seeing infection and death rates in other countries start to rise?

A week ago. So now basically.

So you are saying the infection and death rates in other countries are mimicking that of wuhan? It is now a forgone conclusion that major cities in other nations will be on lockdown in a month or so?

Or are you saying it happens now or it won't happen?

It's not going to happen. It would have happened by now. Wuhan quarantined Jan 23rd-24th = 14 days MAXIMUM for incubation period, last people to flee Wuhan = Jan 23rd-24th + 14 days INCUBATION (assuming they got infected on the very last day in Wuhan) = Feb 6th-7th.
Given that the majority had left Wuhan and surrounding areas a few days BEFORE lockdown, they would have shown the symptoms of the disease by now, even the ones that got infected by those people should have been showing symptoms already, because the incubation period varies, in some cases could be like 5 days or so.

That was my math too back on the 24th.

Unfortunately my family has a trip planned to the Galapagos starting next Friday and I was hoping for more definitive news on the virus by now. All I'm really seeing is that its a big deal for China, China can't be trusted with its its official numbers, and there really isn't much sign of a problem here in the states or south America.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: IngyBall
a reply to: Necrose

It's almost like you don't know what you're talking about. You predicted ~2300 cases for yesterday and it was around 2800, now today it's below your expectations. I know you want to go about and dance on how the number of infections decreased dramatically, but let me bring in a bit of knowledge from meteorology that applies here. You can't call one succession of statistics a trend. For example, in weather, if the computer models change from one run to another it's not a trend, however if there is a consistent change over multiple models runs it becomes a trend. Now there was a trend of a decrease in infections per day, but that trend was broken yesterday, could a new trend start? Sure, but you can't tell that after one day of data. So before you go prancing lets wait a few days, see if a trend starts back up, or see if the numbers are just fluctuating day to day.

Just ignore what she says and call by her proper name - Dunning-Kruger

Works for everyone else.

How about you stop calling me names.

I'm calling you your name.

Waaa Waaa I'm a victim.

I insult everyone here and around me and you should all take it because I'm a waahman, but you say something to me - boo hoo I'm a victim because I'm a waahman.

Foxtrot Oscar Completely Useless Nobody Tata

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: DanDanDat

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: DanDanDat
So when should we be seeing infection and death rates in other countries start to rise?

A week ago. So now basically.

So you are saying the infection and death rates in other countries are mimicking that of wuhan? It is now a forgone conclusion that major cities in other nations will be on lockdown in a month or so?

Or are you saying it happens now or it won't happen?

Well yes apologies I was being flippant. Yes I am basically saying we should be seeing these increase now or anytime soon, but it is my opinion, and it is just my opinion based on my modelling and trawling through data that we will see these numbers very gradually climb now, getting faster and faster (not going to talk about exponential curves, I think I would be hunted down because this filled many pages earlier

)

Thank you for the clarification

a reply to: Necrose

That’s sweat from a fever probably. Might need a pill

Hey hey hey

Let’s stay on topic -

Virus
Theories
CCP handling of virus
Chinese people under quarantine
Crematorium

That stuff.

Personal attacks are MSM material as demonstrated daily.

We are ATS let’s act like it.

If you disagree that’s fine. We shouldn’t insult others or get angry about it.

We all agree -

Virus bad
CCP bad
WHO idiots
Numbers wrong

We should be out there trying to understand if it’s airborne and what that means for the spread. Hopefully no one here has to deal with it.

End mini rant.

How many people are currently quarantined or locked down in China? I tried to google that and can't find any answer.

a reply to: asdfas

Lockdown approaching 500 million

Quarantine 75+ million

Might be higher.

Still unclear if Beijing and Shanghai are on lockdown.

Evidence to suggest tests may give false negatives 50-70% of the time

www.yicai.com...

"Not all patients can detect nucleic acid positives. For patients who are really infected with the new type of coronavirus, there are only The positive rate is 30% to 50%."

Excuse the dodgy translation

a reply to: Joeshiloh

I'm assuming number of new cases to be low (and will be lower each day) because tons of citizens are being confined to their apartment buildings, meaning they can't go to a health center to get tested. This is just an assumption, of course.

originally posted by: asdfas
How many people are currently quarantined or locked down in China? I tried to google that and can't find any answer.

57,040,100 + 46 of the 54 highway exits in Wenzhou were also closed, effectively placing the city of about 9 million, and the first outside of Hubei, in a semi-lockdown.
=
66 million if we count Wenzhou

en.wikipedia.org...

Is there anything to back that up or are those just numbers you're keeping track of in your head? I'm debating someone and would like to be giving truthful info.

a reply to: asdfas

WHO knows....

a reply to: Necrose

66M. Yeah! F’in! Right! That was like 3 weeks ago.

And soft then too

Can you help me with your math you’re so good at and explain why people are talking about 500M+ being closer?

You’re using WIKI? Omfg we’re all doomed!!!!

a reply to: asdfas

My info is mainly multi source news + WeChat + friends and family in China.

Lockdown and quarantine are different.

Necrose is citing quarantine numbers INHO.

Guangzhou and Shenzhen are under lockdown and it’s on MSM is one example.