Corona Virus Updates Part 2

a reply to: jadedANDcynical
I did the maths (using a calculator) and it goes like this.

If I recall somewhere here way back... a conservative number of (infected) people without fever would be like 3/50 = .06

3100 people*.06=185.

So along those lines, even if that is super fuzzy or completely wrong, even a lab monkey with a fever could see that almost 200 people could still get by detection in high-tech US airports, even when we aren’t testing all Int’l airports.

Anyone else want to yell, agree, or stuff a graph down my throat before we conclude this ain’t cool?

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
a reply to: texasgirl
There’s varying reports on WeChat and Twitter.
Seems to be city specific.
Shenzhen, some say back to work 10th, some 18th according to posts.
Friends say Guangzhou has no return date yet.
In-laws in Tianjin haven’t heard a return date announced and they watch news all day.
I’ve asked WeChat people will post more info if different.

In Shanghai, one of my family members there has been told they will be re-opening their business on February 20th (a Thursday as it so happens).

We shall see.

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: misfit312
Hmm. Question the 3000 tests a day.

Are they being used on new patients first or retests? If they keep testing the same people with those kits because of false negatives...that's even more new cases being missed. Is my thinking flawed here?

That's something I forgot to take into account.

I believe your thinking is correct. I also believe China reached their testing capacity a week or so ago. CDC struggling with relatively few confirmed cases so you can imagine the immense strain they must be under. I wonder how long it will be until they don't bother testing anymore because they need to divert manpower elsewhere.

Makes no difference either way. Use tests to retest and miss new cases. Use tests on ‘new’ cases and miss those who might have tested negative. 3,000 test kits are 3,000 test kits. The ONLY conclusion is that people with the virus will be missed. Not that it really matters as they have absolutely no handle on the actual numbers infected - official figures are just a drop in the ocean in truth.

Uh Oh...

Crew Member Dies for Unrelated Reasons on Virus-Delayed Cruise Ship: Sources

Authorities do not believe the man’s death was related to the coronavirus, but are treating it with an “abundance of caution” as they await autopsy results

source

To any that are interested. A good documentary on YouTube about the Spanish Flu. the statistics are quite staggering. If you see the reality of what can happen with a virus outbreak like this on the human population, a better appreciation can be had of the caution being taking for the new outbreak of the coronavirus, and future outbreaks of novel viruses of such ilk.

a reply to: ARM1968

Yes my thinking was on the street. How many new people come down with it but can't get tested because of retests and they just continue to spread...

Countries really are going to have to work double time to minimize spread and I don't think they can. Not with such a backlog.

That virus is sneaky as hell. I can only imagine how fast scientists must be going to even TRY to catch up to it.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

2147 new cases 81 new deaths. Happy if true. The new cases dropped considerably.

originally posted by: misfit312
Uh Oh...

Crew Member Dies for Unrelated Reasons on Virus-Delayed Cruise Ship: Sources

Authorities do not believe the man’s death was related to the coronavirus, but are treating it with an “abundance of caution” as they await autopsy results

source

And they're just announcing that now??

I get it might be unrelated but quite important nonetheless. It seems to me that info is being trickled on a 'we don't think you need to know' basis

a reply to: deviant300

I introduced myself on page 125.

We only have between 23-25 RAMC units of varying types, Field Hospitals etc (this number includes regular and reserve). The Defence Medical Services have no hospitals of their own in the UK other than in Birmingham which is only a military wing of the NHS hospital in place. So any future facilities deployed in the UK will either be a field setup, requisitioned property. As for CBRN we only have 28 Engr Regt RE and 27 Sqn (Falcon Sqn) RAF that have this capability, again no dedicated facility. There is no such thing as a high level or high state medical facility. The U.K. Military is integrated with the NHS, by that I mean that not all UK military bases (all 3 services) have medical centres and a medical centre is exactly the same as your local GP surgery, no beds. No particular RAMC unit is specialised in CBRN or contagions but they do train for this. For example, 5 Armd Med Regt deployed to help combat Ebola in Sierra Leone in 2014. All this is in the public domain.

There currently are no orders for any type of plan in the UK involving the military. I haven't heard anything on my mate network or where I am stationed. But there are countless plans for all situations involving Military Aid to the Civil Authorities so I'm under no illusion that further up the chain of command such plans are there if not underway. I'll be concerned when I see things at my level. Nothing as of yet.

If things were to go badly, be under no illusion, the military mindset is very different from your cosy civvie one. Hardship, arduous and dangerous environment might become the norm and harsh decisions made in stressful circumstances. We can see that being leaked out all over China, bearing in mind that their actions are compounded by being a Marxist toltarian state.

Priority would be to all emergency/first responders, military, food/water production, medical supplies, power, distribution as a bare minimum. Everyone else would be reliant on the system and any preparations they had made. But that's worst case. Here in the UK we have a very good system all round. I'll certainly let you know if I ever notice anything beginning to look like things are changing at work.

Hi, I have a question: So Dr Li who died alarmed the authorities on 31st December re 7 SARS like pneumonia cases. That number is now in the thousands in Wuhan and beyond.
Basically containment has failed in Wuhan. What is the next step public health wise for an unconstrained virus?
I'm almost too scared to ask that question

a reply to: Agit8dChop

bnonews.com...

There are currently 37,111 confirmed cases worldwide, including 806 fatalities.

The reported number of new cases is lower that I would have expected
Where are the exponential increase boys at?

Its no surprise more people are being infected when they are kept in isolation with others who do have the virus. The ship off Yokohama a prime example. Now there are 100 possibles who have it when it started with just a few. Those other 90 something may not of got infected if they were let off the ship and isolated elsewhere for 14 days.

About 100 passengers develop fever on cruise ship quarantined off Japan

tass.com...

Nearly 1:1 what my Graph shows with that 0,995 R^2 ( china‘s other update is coming in ~ 1 1/2 hours)

Just lol at those numbers

Since Jan 31st there is a clear pattern: 22, 22 - 20 - 19, 19 - 15 - 11, 11 - 6 - x - x
Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow probably 5%. Two days in a row the same increase, then another drop I guess.

EDIT: yeah, there will be like 400 new cases in China added in 2 hours so it's gonna be more like 8% today

originally posted by: Joeshiloh
a reply to: Agit8dChop

2147 new cases 81 new deaths. Happy if true. The new cases dropped considerably.

Many experts reckon the reported cases are way below the actual amount. Most say over 10,000 a day are being infected.

a reply to: checkmeout

Hi, I have a question: So Dr Li who died alarmed the authorities on 31st December re 7 SARS like pneumonia cases. That number is now in the thousands in Wuhan and beyond.
Basically containment has failed in Wuhan. What is the next step public health wise for an unconstrained virus?
I'm almost too scared to ask that question

I think that depends on each country. You are from the UK, you should read the comment right before yours www.abovetopsecret.com... , if that doesn't answer your question, maybe Brick17 could answer in more detail? And don't be scared to ask questions or post comments. At most you will get heat from users, if that happens just ignore them, they can't harm you in anyway unless you let them xD

a reply to: slatesteam

Well I think you were looking for a disagreement, but I agree with most of what you've said. I'm not defending Communism or Xi, I'm simply pointing out that using this suffering of hundreds of millions to attack Communism is disgraceful. It's not the fault of the Chinese people, it's a virus.

You say "Nowhere is anyone implying the good Chinese people or people of the world under socialism or communism are AT FAULT". Well if you believe that then your eyes are not open. "It will soon come to rid earth of wickedness". That's who I was talking to and you are inadvertently defending. What a thing to say in the face of an emerging pandemic where thousands of Chinese are dead or dying.

Talk of "God's kingdom" and "the looming Mandate of Heaven", well you are both entitled to your beliefs, but if you believe this is somehow bringing about justice or freedom for oppressed people of the world or China, count me out.

Talking about the pro's and cons of different forms of governance, and past crimes against humanity is all very interesting (I'm sure many are saying nooooooooooooooooo!!!), but I'm not arguing for or against so it is irrelevant.

We're here to talk about the emerging pandemic, not use it to attack a people. And they are being widely attacked across the net and in public, which is a scar on humanity. That's what needs defending.

a reply to: checkmeout

#1: Shut down the rumors and gossip on the internet

#2: Deal with secondary outbreaks worldwide

So when should we be seeing infection and death rates in other countries start to rise?