Manhunt for a Cop-Hating Pennsylvania ‘Survivalist’

a reply to: 12m8keall2c

at one point in the first week or early into the second I heard the command/control officer menton that one of the SERT units was going to be bringing an additional 200 units in with them to do a sweep of the area they were searching.

There's literally been hundreds of units/individuals out there every day since.... not including the K-9 units [they get paid for too.

handler and the dog itself are billed by the hour as well.

originally posted by: 12m8keall2c
a reply to: Aazadan

start adding zeroes, aazadan.. with near 1, 000 individuals having participated in the search thus far, plus you have to factor in all the other resources they've employed [not counting patrol cars and other equipment.


I'd venture a guess of well over a million to date, but there's a fair portion that's likely being covered by the various federal agencies and such who are also participating/helping out.

at about $3, 000-$5,000 /hour per chopper...... and it just goes through the roof at that point.

How many that have participated have been funded directly by the Pennsylvania State Police though? High costs are one thing but if they're spread among several agencies it's much easier to pay them. All I can really do here is use Dorner as a point of comparison, it was a manhunt that has lasted 1/3 the time but involved a far greater search effort and even that only came to $1 million at the most going by statements of the cost.

If I'm wrong here I'll reconsider, but I'm just not seeing it yet. But very little ever seems to be said on the cost of these large operations so it's not like I have a huge base to work from.

a reply to: Aazadan

although they have had Many officers from both New Jersey and New York involved, I'd have to think that those agencies will eventually be billing the state for their costs..

as for the Feds and whatnot, they'll likely bear those costs on their own at US taxpayer's expense.

I'm not exactly sure either, as to how all that is handled and who pays what, but the overall costs have to have exceeded $1M easy at this point. Those AMRAPS and armored personnel carriers can't be cheap to operate on that type terrain.... or anywhere, for that matter.

a reply to: 12m8keall2c

LOL

and now we get to hear of two 'officers' who were medivacd with non-life threatening injuries incurred after falling out of a tree they were in during today's search..... guess we'll hafta add those medical/transport costs to the whole of it as well.

a reply to: 12m8keall2c

start adding zeroes, aazadan.. with near 1,000 individuals having participated in the search thus far, plus you have to factor in all the other resources they've employed [not counting patrol cars and other equipment.

No doubt. Don't forget to add on the costs of lodging and per diem. Those people don't all live there and they're not going to personally 'eat' those costs.

It costs about a thousand bucks just to crank up a helicopter once you've considered every aspect of what's associated with that.

There's nothing cheap at all about what we're talking here. Those boneheads should've made the reward $500K, added "Wanted Dead or Alive" to Frein's poster, opened hunting season early, ... and let greed follow its natural course.

a reply to: Snarl

yeah. bitch of it is, per diem's gotta be at or over $50/day...... meals and whatnot..... then they pocket most of that by going where they can eat for free [locals volunteering time and food]

a reply to: 12m8keall2c
Ouch lol. Guess they shoulda stuck with the good old boy's tree stands instead of trying to climb trees lol. Last time I was up that way I found some crazy "tree stands" one was like a mini house, had a kerosine heater and minigrill and everything. So much for roughing it during hunting

a reply to: TKDRL

yeah. I'm headed that way Friday morning [Gettysburg area] for a week.

my step father and a coupla his boys have one that's just like home. make breakfast on a coleman grill. shades, blinds, heater, radio, electric. the works.

like you said.... so much for roughin it.

a reply to: 12m8keall2c
Good luck lol. Hoping to win the moose lottery this year myself

originally posted by: Snarl
a reply to: 12m8keall2c

start adding zeroes, aazadan.. with near 1,000 individuals having participated in the search thus far, plus you have to factor in all the other resources they've employed [not counting patrol cars and other equipment.

No doubt. Don't forget to add on the costs of lodging and per diem. Those people don't all live there and they're not going to personally 'eat' those costs.

It costs about a thousand bucks just to crank up a helicopter once you've considered every aspect of what's associated with that.

There's nothing cheap at all about what we're talking here. Those boneheads should've made the reward $500K, added "Wanted Dead or Alive" to Frein's poster, opened hunting season early, ... and let greed follow its natural course.

Maybe, but it's also possible you're over estimating costs. Like I said I was trying to use Dorner for reference and that only came to a million. They had non stop helicopters, drones, and tons of people in the field. Granted this has been going on 3 times as long but the number of people involved is a bit smaller (disclaimer; I don't know exact numbers on either). Lets say it is a million at this point... at what point do they start to run into an issue with funds? Going by recent statements they basically said the money was there and won't be going away.

I would think these sorts of things are budgeted for under a nationwide insurance payout type of model. That would provide immense resources to anyone that needs it while still leaving the individual departments with the need to be financially responsible.

If that's the case then Frein can't be planning to beat them economically as I and some others had earlier assumed. Which means the only strategies left to him are a suicide attack or to escape the perimeter. With hunting season coming up that's his best and probably only chance to escape. In Feins favor he's much more mobile than the PSP, but he has fewer resources and they decline by the day. If he remains trapped he gets weaker every day while the opponent gets stronger.

Here's what I don't understand, if you look at some of the threads around here of screwed up things in the national forests you can find spiked balls that swing from trees based on tripwire, pits full of spikes, and so on. All designed to kill the random people who enter the woods. Why has Frein not done any of this? Ambush tactics would severely impact the speed at which the PSP can go through the woods. Even if there were only a handful out there (in high profile spots) the threat of more would slow everyone down.

Anyways, lately I've been reading Sun Tzu's the Art of War. It's quite an interesting book and I had always meant to go through it one day... I had already been familiar with large parts of it as the book has very important ideas in my field although it's not really required reading. In a chapter I read the other day it talked about the interaction of a small force against a large force. These are the excerpts I found relevant here:

1. Sun Tzŭ said: Whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight; whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle, will arrive exhausted.

This is basically saying the one who shoots first dictates the pace of the battle. I don't think there's any argument Frein's actions have dictated everything.

3. By holding out advantages to him, he can cause the enemy to approach of his own accord; or, by inflicting damage, he can make it impossible for the enemy to draw near.

Assuming they were real, think of the explosive devices. If those were intended to be traps (or he did what I mentioned above) the PSP simply wouldn't be able to advance.

6. An army may march great distances without distress, if it marches through country where the enemy is not.

Seems like a real failure on Freins part to not trap things further.

12. If we do not wish to fight, we can prevent the enemy from engaging us even though the lines of our encampment be merely traced out on the ground. All we need do is to throw something odd and unaccountable in his way.16

He is doing a lot of this. Poorly improvised pipe bombs, diapers, and whatever else.

16. The spot where we intend to fight must not be made known; for then the enemy will have to prepare against a possible attack at several different points;20 and his forces being thus disturbed in many directions, the numbers we shall have to face at any given point will be proportionately few.

17. For should the enemy strengthen his van, he will weaken his rear; should he strengthen his rear, he will weaken his van; should he strengthen his left, he will weaken his right; should he strengthen his right, he will weaken his left. If he sends reinforcements everywhere, he will everywhere be weak.21

18. Numerical weakness comes from having to prepare against possible attacks; numerical strength, from compelling our adversary to make these preparations against us.22

19. Knowing the place and the time of the coming battle, we may concentrate from the greatest distances in order to fight.23

Longer quote there. I believe that his ultimate fail back plan if he becomes trapped and cannot get out involves an ambush shootout in very beneficial terrain for him while the incoming police are exposed. It would have to be an area their APC's can't handle and with little natural cover, with a great snipers nest type spot for him, that's covered by the trees. I don't know if such a spot exists but I would look for such an area as a plan C, D, or E. The plan you know you're not coming back from.

To be perfectly honest, my biggest problem with Frein is in the way he did it. It shows that irrational. If you're going to take some symbolic shots at the police wouldn't it be best to hit the higher ups rather than the first two you see? Or maybe even hunt down a certain victim?

Any activist statement he's trying to make is completely lost in his methods which have been to shoot two random cops and then run into the woods. If he doesn't have an accomplice with hunting season I don't see how he has any chance of getting out.

originally posted by: Aazadan

To be perfectly honest, my biggest problem with Frein is in the way he did it. It shows that irrational. If you're going to take some symbolic shots at the police wouldn't it be best to hit the higher ups rather than the first two you see? Or maybe even hunt down a certain victim?

Any activist statement he's trying to make is completely lost in his methods which have been to shoot two random cops and then run into the woods.

I'd say it's fairly obvious the guy's lost it. I don't think he's making an activist statement at all. I don't even think the shots were 'symbolic', he just decided to go shoot some cops and popped the first two he got to, then panicked and ran for it.

originally posted by: Bedlam

I'd say it's fairly obvious the guy's lost it. I don't think he's making an activist statement at all. I don't even think the shots were 'symbolic', he just decided to go shoot some cops and popped the first two he got to, then panicked and ran for it.

Though there are a bunch of ways it could have gone down ... I'd have to agree with your assessment.

I've been looking for an opening to ask you personally since you joined the thread: Why do you think he hasn't shot a cop up there in the woods?

Very nice post.

originally posted by: Aazadan

Maybe, but it's also possible you're over estimating costs. Like I said I was trying to use Dorner for reference and that only came to a million. They had non stop helicopters, drones, and tons of people in the field. Granted this has been going on 3 times as long but the number of people involved is a bit smaller (disclaimer; I don't know exact numbers on either). Lets say it is a million at this point... at what point do they start to run into an issue with funds? Going by recent statements they basically said the money was there and won't be going away.

Up front, I'm going to give you this. The PSP have an unlimited line of credit. I'm sure that's partly there for the wound licking. We on ATS aren't the only ones talking about this. Somebody's gonna take a different kind of lick if they're abusing that funding ... and I'll guarantee you people are looking hard to throw some dirt on them (dead cops or not).

As for overestimating ... uh-uh. Might be a matter of perspective, but I bet a whole bunch of people underestimate how much a cop gets paid every year to begin with (do you know?). I firmly recall somebody saying there were "300 cops up in the woods". That's 2,400 man hours per day. Now, by my calculations, that's a hundred grand a day ... in salary alone.

Here's what I don't understand, if you look at some of the threads around here of screwed up things in the national forests you can find spiked balls that swing from trees based on tripwire, pits full of spikes, and so on. All designed to kill the random people who enter the woods. Why has Frein not done any of this? Ambush tactics would severely impact the speed at which the PSP can go through the woods. Even if there were only a handful out there (in high profile spots) the threat of more would slow everyone down.

Speculation aside, making booby traps is damned hard work, and you've really got to know what you're doing. I found that one of the most laughably unrealistic scenarios in the Rambo movie. Frein though, he could have gotten a'hold of some bear traps had he 'really' planned to be lurking in those woods for an extended period of time. Best thing though ... and the thing we know he's capable of ... shoot a couple more cops. Don't even try to kill 'em. Just aim for the lower abdomen. I will guarantee you nothing would slow them down more.

Longer quote there. I believe that his ultimate fail back plan if he becomes trapped and cannot get out involves an ambush shootout in very beneficial terrain for him while the incoming police are exposed. It would have to be an area their APC's can't handle and with little natural cover, with a great snipers nest type spot for him, that's covered by the trees. I don't know if such a spot exists but I would look for such an area as a plan C, D, or E. The plan you know you're not coming back from.

If he's gonna get into a gunfight, he must avoid being surrounded by a viable force (one-on-one ... I'm betting on the .308). He's might lose if they can pin-point his position and put a QRF on him. Not sure how good tactical comms are out in the woods. Listening to the scanner feed leads me to believe 'not so good', but they probably have something better they're not telling us about.

To be perfectly honest, my biggest problem with Frein is in the way he did it. It shows that irrational. If you're going to take some symbolic shots at the police wouldn't it be best to hit the higher ups rather than the first two you see? Or maybe even hunt down a certain victim?

Any activist statement he's trying to make is completely lost in his methods which have been to shoot two random cops and then run into the woods. If he doesn't have an accomplice with hunting season I don't see how he has any chance of getting out.

I doubt he thought about hunting season opening and a $175K bounty on his head. I almost wonder if he's had the time to work it out ... running to and fro from cache to cache. Then again, squirreling the AK up in a tree threw me. Almost makes me want to believe the cops are right and he really is running around in the woods ... I just can't (completely). We keep alluding to how smart this guy 'must be' ... when the smart thing to do would be to un-ass the area within minutes of the initial trigger pulls. My money is on him being long gone and the cops jumping at ghosts.

originally posted by: Snarl

originally posted by: Bedlam

I'd say it's fairly obvious the guy's lost it. I don't think he's making an activist statement at all. I don't even think the shots were 'symbolic', he just decided to go shoot some cops and popped the first two he got to, then panicked and ran for it.

Though there are a bunch of ways it could have gone down ... I'd have to agree with your assessment.

I've been looking for an opening to ask you personally since you joined the thread: Why do you think he hasn't shot a cop up there in the woods?

I keep wanting to say "if it were me" but I wouldn't have done this that way to begin with, that said, if I suddenly became the guy through evil magic, I'd have left the area promptly, gotten out of range, then changed my appearance and vamoosed in a slow and orderly fashion to the rally point some miles hence, where I'd have gone to ground. So the answer would be "Because I'm not there anymore".

And in a "not blaming the victims" sort of way, I do note that one actually correct procedure I see the police barracks/SWAT enclave do here, is that they do that good ol' military thing of keeping the grounds pretty much free of tree clumps and the sorts of shrubbery one could hide in/behind, and they push the tree lines a long way back from the buildings and areas where they mill around. Even if they don't know why they do that, this is it.

a reply to: Bedlam

I'd say that certainly goes against Frein in terms of him being the ultimate strategist. Given the first move in a surprise attack scenario ... I would have gone about it far differently as well. It's a good thing for them that I am not a threat.

I think the biggest mistake the cops have made so far is focusing a search through the woods. I wonder if anyone made a concerted effort to block strategic egress to the west ... out of PA, or to the north ... into Canada. The more I think about it, and the longer the cops keep coming up empty-handed in the woods ... the more I'm sure he di di mau'd.

LOL ... this is why I don't buy the first book in a trilogy until the last one's written.

originally posted by: Snarl

Speculation aside, making booby traps is damned hard work, and you've really got to know what you're doing. I found that one of the most laughably unrealistic scenarios in the Rambo movie.

Well, I couldn't make it through the movie. But I guess he did what, set some Predator style deadfalls and the like? You'd never have time for that on the run.

BUT, that said, it would depend on the situation. I haven't pulled up maps of the area to see what he had to work with. I'm going to make the assumption the cop barracks is up against a large heavily wooded area where people can hunt, so people running around in there all summer with tools wouldn't be considered unusual, right? If this guy had a major, dedicated cop jones going, and there's a badly orchestrated cop enclave right in range of the woodline, you have all the time in the world to prepare for this. You could make those woods a contact breaking delight. A wonderland of entertainment for badly prepared, adrenaline-gushing police to try to pursue you through. You'd have MONTHS to set up and test.

Frein though, he could have gotten a'hold of some bear traps had he 'really' planned to be lurking in those woods for an extended period of time. Best thing though ... and the thing we know he's capable of ... shoot a couple more cops. Don't even try to kill 'em. Just aim for the lower abdomen. I will _guarantee you_ nothing would slow them down more.

Well, ENOUGH planning, and he'd have had some explosives to work with.

The other thing, yeah, they teach you that as part of a tactic Not Appropriate for Description on ATS. But if he had studied this and done it with intent and planning, it's likely he would have figured that out or gotten the relevant FMs on tactics of that sort.

' ... when the smart thing to do would be to un-ass the area within minutes of the initial trigger pulls. My money is on him being long gone and the cops jumping at ghosts.

Mine too, but the guy sorta screwed the pooch on the rest of it, so if I were the cops, I'd be watching his relative's houses. Stock mistake is to go to a friend's or relative's.

a reply to: Bedlam

Well, ENOUGH planning, and he'd have had some explosives to work with.

The other thing, yeah, they teach you that as part of a tactic Not Appropriate for Description on ATS.

Wasn't gonna go there, but you're right. Plastic explosives are neither hard to come up with nor hard to fabricate ... detonators are much more challenging if you don't know right where to go. Biggest concern is getting caught testing 'em. Woo boy!! You don't wanna get caught doing that!!


Somebody reported that he called his parent's house. Do you believe it? I think he knew his life was gonna irrevocably change and I don't see him getting caught in the presence of his family ever again. That ... in and of itself ... leads me to believe he has a few screws loose.

originally posted by: Snarl

Biggest concern is getting caught testing 'em. Woo boy!! You don't wanna get caught doing that!!

Ah, well, I started to tell you how to do this with the blessings of the system, but, no, I got flogged once for this sort of post. I hate these threads, they entice me to get in trouble.

Somebody reported that he called his parent's house. Do you believe it?

I would expect it, actually. Next, he shows up at some place he felt comfortable in the past, a fishing cabin, a friend's house, granny's.

a reply to: Bedlam

I would expect it, actually.

No ... no ... do you believe it? I expect he'd call too, but only once he was in the clear (in his mind). I'd guess he'd be well clear of the woods before that call came in.

a reply to: Snarl

I think it shows you he's not the James Bond of survivalists.

I knew some guys in north Alabama that were scary. One was a former SERE instructor. I'd hate to po those guys.

This guy, I think he's 2/3 nuts and 1/3 too many re-reads of the turner diaries.