An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

As usual, with any EQ in this area of north central Nevada, it's been deleted already.

Originally posted by kattraxx
reply to post by soma_pills

 

When you get a good ear tone, would you describe it in detail to us? Maybe some others are getting the same thing, but don't equate it to a precursor.

For me it is usually that I get a high pitch tone in my ear. In some cases you feel a 'block' or mild physical pressure, but mostly it's like someone just turns down the outside world's noise and replaces it with a standing tone. Usually they are high in pitch, although I have had a few low pitch ones. Sometimes they are subtle and sometimes they are pretty loud and really snap me to attention from whatever I was doing. They last anywhere from 5-30 seconds per tone.

On average I would say they usually last about 10 seconds and are high pitch with a medium 'intensity'. I seem to get them in waves or clusters where I will get them over the course of a few days, then they drop off for a while, then come back. *Occasionally* I will get some that are more pressure oriented or in a series. One time when living in SF I got a series of pulsing pressure waves/sound tones that lasted almost a minute and was like a little oscillating piston in my ear. Freaked me the heck out!

I've seen enough anecdotal evidence and read enough of other people's experiences to believe they are related to EQs/magma/faults (my favorite from another web site was someone who kept getting them while driving this one road at the same spot, only to find that spot crossed the San Andreas fault). I just don't know how to correlate them yet and I don't know how far afield or what time window I should restrict to. The best advice I have seen is to just keep track of them and then see if a pattern emerges for a certain regions.

Magnitude 3.0 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2008 December 31 17:48:16 UTC
San Juan Batista

Hot spring area.

Just had a 10 second, medium to low tone in my left ear. 1/1/09 - 9:22 PM Pacific. Just posting to see if anyone else had anything.

Hello all, I'm back after the holidays, haven't kept up with much for a few days so some back reading is in order. Just wanted to come on and state I am having stomach pain tonight, started around 100am EST, along with low ear tones. Lower leg pain too. Also a feeling of sadness, intensely sad, which shouldn't be, I just had a wonderful holiday, and in particular, a great day in general today.

A little after 6 am, it is friday morning, my ear tones just changed to another level of shrill, the stomach pain is still with me, and add right temple pressure/pain.

reply to post by space cadet

Here in the netherlands same strange things.
Pain in the belly, in the legs, ears are ringing also.
I just did some phonecalls and guess.... more people having this.
Also the feeling that something is going and will come but don't know what.
The kind of depression feeling also over here.
All the things in the world getting weirder and weirder.

Forget almost the shaking hands and legs.

reply to post by coolvibe


Had another 10 second tone, right ear this time and high pitch but very soft, around 7:30 AM PST. Funny you guys mention leg pain as my left foot was all tingly and weird last night. *shrug*

Incidentally, I have my phone set to page me whenever the USGS records a 7.0 or greater quake, and it just went off for the Santa Cruz islands, but the web site is showing prelim mag of 5.4 only.

link



[edit on 2-1-2009 by soma_pills]

DELETED: Event US 2009bica

== EVENT DELETED NOTIFICATION ==

***This event has been deleted after review by a seismologist.***

Geographic coordinates: 11.463S, 166.267E
Magnitude: 7.0
Universal Time (UTC): 2 Jan 2009 20:37:18
Time near the Epicenter: 3 Jan 2009 07:37:18

Location with respect to nearby cities:
462 km (287 miles) NNW (348 degrees) of Santo (Luganville), Vanuatu
486 km (302 miles) ESE (104 degrees) of Kira Kira, Solomon Islands
725 km (451 miles) ESE (108 degrees) of HONIARA, Solomon Islands
2096 km (1303 miles) E (98 degrees) of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea

I am astounded to see someone come on today and post one of the same things I was about to post, my hands are shaking today. Actually I feel inside like I am vibrating almost, my heart is palpitating, my ear tone is distant, shrill today. Clumsiness has set in too, just in the last hour, it is now 1245am, est.


edit to fix silly mistake

[edit on 2-1-2009 by space cadet]

It is now 513am est, I am still having heart palps, they seem to be getting stronger, as of about 15 min ago, and nausea just set in.

I wanted to show this link, it may have already been posted, it shows the yellowstone swarm :

www.youtube.com...



t is clearly moving across the lake, that worries me, has there been any report of that lake losing water? If water goes missing from it that will allow whatever pressure was being held back by the weight and pressure of the water to now escape, the same situation from what I understand as it's last major eruption, at least that is not 'the big one'.

[edit on 3-1-2009 by space cadet]

Check these out, one is suppose to be a real time image at Mammoth Springs at Yellowstone, but it is stopped on Dec 30th 2008 at 217pm.

www.nps.gov...


I looked for Mammoth Springs because of this video:

www.youtube.com...

reply to post by space cadet


The past two or three days, everyone seems to have the exact same precursors. While I'm not sure about the short-lived nausea everyone's mentioning, I think some of it is northern California, including the bay area and offshore, down to Tres Pinos. Maybe there will be another in the 4.0 range around The Geysers or Tres Pinos this week. I wonder if all the geyser and hot spring activity lately was a precursor of sorts for the Yellowstone activity?

Space Cadet, here's a little inforomation on a series of four earthquakes in the 6.0+ range at Long Valley caldera (Mammoth Lakes), California in 1980 (coincidentally, the same year Mt. St. Helens blew). I'm sure this alarmed everyone, but I suppose these things happen with volcanoes. Just mentioning it in case there's a higher mag quake at Yellowstone. Hopefully, it'll quiet back down the way Long Valley did.

Volcanic Unrest. In May of 1980, a strong earthquake swarm that included four magnitude 6 earthquakes struck the southern margin of Long Valley Caldera associated with a 25-cm, dome-shaped uplift of the caldera floor. These events marked the onset of the latest period of caldera unrest that continues to this day. This ongoing unrest includes recurring earthquake swarms and continued dome-shaped uplift of the central section of the caldera (the resurgent dome) accompanied by changes in thermal springs and gas emissions.

lvo.wr.usgs.gov...

Edit to add:

Charlotte King is best known for her accurate prediction of the major
eruption of Washington's Mt. St. Helens, May 18, 1980.
She was a mere 12 minutes off.

Chris Dodge of the Science Policy Research Division,
of the US Library of Congress, rated Charlotte's overall accuracy rate as 85-90+% for
earthquakes measuring over 6.0 magnitude; 100% for Mt. St. Helens; and
near 100% on other volcanoes, time, magnitude and location.

www.viser.net...

Interesting that all this activity, Mt. St. Helens and Long Valley caldera happened in May of 1980.



[edit on 1/3/09 by kattraxx]

Magnitude 7.6 - NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
2009 January 03 19:43:54 UTC

Magnitude 7.5 - NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
2009 January 03 22:33:42 UTC


Tsunami Warning Center

www.prh.noaa.gov...

Odd, there is an event listed for today, but when you try to read the text or html document-- you get page not found.

Adding:

MAP 7.5 2009/01/03 22:33:42 -0.714 133.245 45.4 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.0 2009/01/03 22:23:47 -0.510 132.214 35.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.2 2009/01/03 22:07:47 -0.319 132.869 35.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.6 2009/01/03 21:49:32 -0.363 132.834 35.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 5.1 2009/01/03 21:30:47 -0.563 133.124 64.6 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 4.8 2009/01/03 20:47:34 -0.282 132.880 35.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 7.6 2009/01/03 19:43:54 -0.510 132.783 35.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
MAP 4.7 2009/01/01 03:44:54 -6.817 130.006 45.6 BANDA SEA


[edit on 1/3/09 by kattraxx]

[edit on 1/3/09 by kattraxx]

Magnitude 5.3 - SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO, ARGENTINA
2009 January 03 21:15:00 UTC

With so much happening on the other side of the Pacific plate, I wonder if we can expect reactions on this side.
-------------------------------------

Interesting information on the Japan Meteorological Agency site.

Prediction of Tokai Earthquake

When anomalous crustal activity is observed around Tokai region, information is issued in relation to the occurrence of the great earthquake (Tokai Earthquake).

www.jma.go.jp...




[edit on 1/3/09 by kattraxx]

1:08am pst..

sharp pain in my left temple and left side of my sinus.

I know this isn't going out on a limb... but im going to say at least another 6 or 7 in that area of Indonesia that's going off right now.

I think I have that part of my melon narrowed down to the western pacific.

Having stomach pain, upper abdomen area, lower leg pain, both legs, very low sounding ear tones. I still have that shaking or trembling feeling inside, and the heart palps, slight nausea. It is 505am est.

Hi all,

I was over on the "Yellowstone" thread for a few days, but time to get back here and make a few observations that would be off-topic over there.

First: do you recall back on Dec 27, there was a series of five quakes in Utah at three different locations (including a mag 4.5), but that all of them got deleted after being reviewed by a seismologist? (It's back in the thread a few pages with data, maps, etc.) Well I wondered about it then, because we all know that deleting that number of quakes in a relatively small area is very unusual. (They were not P-wave pickups from a major quake elsewhere in the world, either. I checked. Besides, the timings varied too much for that scenario.)

Now, as we also know, the Yellowstone quake swarm started in Dec 26, but began to intensify on Dec 27. So I am wondering if there was some kind of connection and that is why the quakes were deleted. I studied my saved copies of Yellowstone helicorder traces for Dec 27 and found that (for example) station YTP shows a quake trace that begins at about 9:18:38 UTC (+/- 1 second), which would correspond very closely to the travel time for the P-wave from the mag 4.5 in Utah that occurred at 09:18:25 UTC. The other (later) Utah quakes do not appear to have registered on that YTP helicorder, but they were smaller, and the apparent pick-up of the mag 4.5's P-wave is nowhere near as large a trace as such a quake would produce if it were within Yellowstone.

The quake also shows quite well on YML, LKWY and YLT. My copies of traces for other helicorders do not show it so well, but this is explicable depending on what type of recorders they are. They show best on broadband instruments, such as those I've mentioned.

Summary: considering that the exact time of the original (deleted) mag 4.5 quake is known, and that is corresponds closely to the time for its P-wave to travel to Yellowstone, and that the Yellowstone broadband helicorders detected a quake within a second of the expected arrival time of that P-wave, I conclude that the mag 4.5 event in Utah very likely happened but was for some reason deleted. As for other, smaller events, I am not sure because I lack the data.

I can post images from the Y/stone helicorders for Dec 27 2008 if such visual evidence is required. The other data for the Utah quakes are already on record here.

Mike

On to the next matter...

There have been some very powerful quakes in Indonesia in the past day, including two over mag 7, and some members may be concerned about possible knock-on effects for Yellowstone.

I'd like to point out that there is only a small likelihood of such effects from the Indonesia quakes, because the Yellowstone area of the USA falls just within the so-called "shadow zone" for those quakes and this is why not even the P-waves were recorded very clearly on the Y/stone helicorders.

However, the Afghan mag 5.9 quake that also occurred yesterday at 20:23 UTC in the Hindu Kush region, is quite another story. This is because its location, at 36.402°N, 70.754°E, places it longitudinally at almost 180 degrees around the world from where the Yellowstone quake swarm has been happening at around 44.5°N, 110.3°W. Those who've read even the last half-dozen pages of this thread will know that there can be effects (in some cases) from quakes at 180-degree opposition on the globe, even with some variance in latitude as I've previously pointed out.

The problem with Yellowstone is that it is not sitting on a major tectonic fault, but atop a magma plume (a "hot spot"), so the methodologies I have applied to predicting quakes may not apply. Its activities relate more to volcanic/magmatic/hydrothermal processes than to "simple" tectonic interaction effects. All the same, this quake in Afghanistan does, in my humble opinion, marginally increase the likelihood of a stronger quake in the Yellowstone region within the next three days. By "stronger" I mean more than that mag 3.9 recorded there earlier in this current swarm and which is, I believe the strongest of that swarm to date.

That being said, I actually consider any triggering effects from the Afghan quake might be more noticeable within the range from Nevada into California, as the difference in longitude is not great but there is a higher number of conventional tectonic faults with the possibility for energy release. This is especially so as there was a mag 5.8 in almost the same place in Afghanistan on Monday Dec 29, so while its effects alone might not be enough to "trigger" anything, the new 5.9 yesterday is not going to help things at all in any way good.

I can't make a firm prediction for a specific time and place right now as I lack other indicators, but as I've sometimes done before, I thought it best to post what I guess we can call an "advisory".

Best regards,

Mike

so...

a nevada quake like this:

Magnitude 4.3 - NEVADA
2009 January 04 15:29:20 UTC
DetailsSummaryMapsScientific & TechnicalWhere can I find...?
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 4.3
Date-Time Sunday, January 04, 2009 at 15:29:20 UTC
Sunday, January 04, 2009 at 07:29:20 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 41.693°N, 114.405°W
Depth 0 km (~0 mile) set by location program
Region NEVADA
Distances 30 km (18 miles) SE (131°) from San Jacinto, NV
41 km (26 miles) NE (44°) from Wilkins, NV
50 km (31 miles) NNW (327°) from Tecoma, NV
80 km (50 miles) NE (36°) from Wells, NV
110 km (68 miles) NNW (345°) from West Wendover, NV
235 km (146 miles) WNW (297°) from Salt Lake City, UT

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters Nph= 52, Dmin=0 km, Rmss=0 sec, Gp= 0,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=1
Source Seismological Laboratory, University of Nevada, Reno

Event ID nn00270790



very northeast corner of nevada..