Solar Activity Watch 2011

Ouch...step away from the computer for a few hours and look what happens! Lots of things to keep an eye on, eh?

roduct: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2011 Mar 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 66 Issued at 0030Z on 07 Mar 2011
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 06 Mar
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1164 N24W46 165 0640 Ekc 12 25 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1165 S20W68 186 0200 Eao 11 21 Beta
1166 N11E27 091 0360 Ekc 11 16 Beta-Gamma
1167 N09W09 127 0020 Bxo 04 02 Beta
1169 N21E56 062 0030 Bxo 04 04 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z Mar
Nmbr Location Lo
1163 N17W65 184
II. Regions Due to Return 07 Mar to 09 Mar
Nmbr Lat Lo
1162 N17 353
1161 N11 352

Even though there is inbound activity, SpaceWeather had this article about interference, which might explain some of the issues some people are having, even though it is hard to tell when there is so much activity happening at once:

EQUINOX SUN OUTAGES: Many readers reported an intermittent loss of satellite TV reception over the weekend. Was the sun to blame? Yes and no. Senior forecaster Bill Murtagh of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center explains: "It is likely that the sun caused the problem, but not because of solar flares. Now is the time of year for the 'equinox conjunction,' when the sun lines up with the satellite and the receiving satellite dish. When this happens, radio interference from the sun competes with signals from the satellite and can create noise levels several decibels higher than normal. The problem, which typically persists for 5 to 15 minutes, is referred to as a 'sun outage' and is often confused with sunspot or solar flare activity."

spaceweather.com...

FLARE

0-24 hr

24-48 hr
CLASS M

75 %

50 %
CLASS X

10 %

05 %

We now have an increase in flare percentages. Ham interferences have been terrible today.

SOLAR ACTIVITY: The magnetic canopy of big sunspot 1166 erupted on March 7th around 1400 UT, producing an M2-class solar flare and a bright coronal mass ejection (CME). Check out the image of the movie which captures the expanding plasma cloud. The CME was not squarely directed at Earth. Nevertheless, the cloud will probably deliver a glancing blow to our planet’s magnetic field on March 9th or 10th, possibly sparking polar geomagnetic storms. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Sunspots have also increased on the solar surface. –Space Weather

Extinction Protocol

I found this over at the SolarCycle 24 site and was wondering if anyone knew about it. What are the mechanics behind a flare without a sun spot and how does that work? Thanks.

"M1.5 Flare / No Sunspots Needed: An M1.5 Solar Flare took place at 03:58 UTC Tuesday and was centered around the spotless plage region located in the south eastern quadrant of the visible solar disk."

www.solarcycle24.com...

We have just had an onslaught of M flares.

Date - Start - Stop - Peak
2011/03/08 - 10:35:00 - 10:44:00 - 10:44:00 M5.3
2011/03/08 - 18:08:00 - 18:28:00 - 18:28:00 M4.4

Total in the last couple days there has been 11 M type flares.

reply to post by white_raven

The majority of the activity is coming from 1165 which is pretty much out of the picture now.

1166 did kick out an M1.7 a while ago but is really pretty quiet.

solarmonitor.org...

didnt the 2 big M's today came out of that one lets just turning towards us?

reply to post by white_raven

No. Just the M1.7 (not a big one) yesterday.
Nice CME from 1165 though.

reply to post by Phage
that is quite the CME,.
By the looks alone,. if it were to hit earth it would be an issue.

X 1 class flare being reported.

spaceweather.com...

Just found a thread on it:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by lasertaglover


Just saw where you listed the flare on the Arkansas thread.

Earthquakes/solar flares

reply to post by crazydaisy


I thought they might want to know as well.

It's always a little worrying to consider.

Current Solar X-ray flux showing the flare:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/5f6f595c8e0a.gif[/atsimg]

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Most likely candidate would be 1166 which means a CME would probably be heading our way.
There's no obvious CME showing on STEREO A. No current data from SOHO or STEREO B.

reply to post by Phage


Thank you for the update on that. You would think that an X-class, even though small, would have a CME associated with it.

reply to post by lasertaglover

Actually, STEREO B might have it. If so it is from 1166 but it doesn't look like much.

Looks like a small X-1 flare, but Space Weather says "Stay tuned for analysis." Probably nothing to worry about.

Seems to be
an Itty bitty CME.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/67b6ab4d6938.gif[/atsimg]
A little hard to tell from the beacon mode images though.

FAST CORONAL MASS EJECTION: A coronal mass ejection (CME) exploded from the vicinity of sunspot 1164 during the late hours of March 7th. It leapt away from the sun traveling ~2200 km/s, making it the fastest CME since Sept. 2005. A movie of the cloud prepared by Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab shows a possibly substantial Earth-directed component. This CME and at least one other could brush against Earth's magnetic field on March 10th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

www.spaceweather.com...

Generally the more powerful the CME the faster it reaches us. It looks like it is aimed towards us also.
Two x class flares and the solar cycle is just starting towards maximum means we may be in for a bumpy ride.