Alaska - Mt Redoubt Volcano could erupt within days

Based on our current understanding of Redoubt's past eruptions, both historical and from the geologic record, and our analysis of the current episode of unrest, AVO considers the following future scenarios as possible:

1) Failed Eruption: No eruption occurs because magma does not reach the surface. Earthquake activity, gas output, and steaming slowly decrease over several weeks or months. Continued heat flux may cause continued, modest melting of snow and ice on the edifice and subsequent increased, but not hazardous outflow into the Drift River.

2) Eruption similar to or smaller than 1989-90: Unrest continues to escalate culminating in an eruption that is similar to or smaller than the one that occurred in 1989-90. An eruption such as this would likely spread volcanic ash throughout Cook Inlet and other parts of south-central Alaska depending upon the prevailing winds. Communities around the volcano, especially to the east, northeast, and southeast, would likely experience trace to several millimeters (less than 0.4 inches) of ash fall as a result of discrete explosive events. Such events could also generate pyroclastic flows that swiftly melt snow and ice to form mudflows, or lahars, that would likely travel east down Drift River, possibly reaching and flowing into Cook Inlet. If summit lava domes form, as they did in 1989-90, they may repeatedly collapse and generate pyroclastic flows that would likely travel north from the summit crater and form lahars. Smaller lahars could also form in other drainages if hot debris accumulated on other flanks of the volcano. An eruption consisting of multiple explosive events, episodic lava-dome growth and collapse, and lahars may last weeks to months.

3) Larger Explosive Eruption: A significantly larger eruption could occur, perhaps similar to eruptions that are thought to have taken place prehistorically. Such an eruption might involve the production of larger ash clouds, pyroclastic flows on several flanks of the volcano, and larger lahars more frequently reaching Cook Inlet down Drift River and affecting other drainages around the volcano as well.

4) Flank Collapse: The intruding magma or other processes could destabilize a portion of the Redoubt edifice that could result in a large volcanic landslide. At least twice in the last 10,000 years, debris flows generated by such landslides have reached Cook Inlet. It is also likely that a landslide of this type would be accompanied by an eruption. Because of the scarcity of these events in the geologic record, a flank collapse and eruption is considered very unlikely. A flank collapse may be accompanied by visible deformation of the edifice and AVO will be looking for such signs.

Based on all available monitoring data and AVOs knowledge of the volcano, scenario number two, an eruption similar to or smaller than that of 1989-90, appears to be the most probable outcome at this time. We consider one and three to be somewhat less likely, and scenario four to be much less likely.

Comparing the time frame of pre-eruptive activity in 1989-90 (the only other eruption for which seismic data were available) with the current unrest, we would expect such an eruption to begin within the next few days or weeks. It is likely that the onset of an explosive eruption would be preceded by a further increase in seismicity. An explosive eruption would be accompanied by a sharp increase in seismicity. Should earthquake activity or other monitoring data suggest that an eruption is expected within hours, or is underway, AVO would move Redoubt from its current Aviation Color Code ORANGE to RED, and Alert Level WATCH to WARNING.

This was part of the full statement and covers how they are interpreting the data. They have since stated, locally anyway, that an eruption is expected.

Nothing yet though.

[edit on 1/31/2009 by Blaine91555]

Rise and Shine! It's time to wake up sleepyhead...

Latest update.
The next update should have more info if they're flying over it now.

Seismicity remains relatively unchanged since 3:30 PM AKST yesterday afternoon. It is still well above background.

An AVO gas-measurement and observation flight is currently underway. Clear web camera views currently show a steam plume rising from the area of the 1989-90 lava dome.

AVO

The webcam picture hasn't updated.

reply to post by SpadeofAces


We are having a wonderful sunny day with clear skies. Redoubt has calmed down.

After learning a lot more last night my nervousness is gone. We will likely see about 1/4 inch of ash at most. We may have short term disruptions in the natural gas supply which means no electricity. Planes might be grounded for a bit.

I'd say as long as a person keeps a mask, goggles and extra air filters for the car, not much to be concerned about.

The site is up fully and they have some good photo's Here, the webcam Here and the Webicorders Here.

The Ice Storms of late in the Lower 48 are of far more concern in reality.

Do we have a "live" webcam site? still pictures is all I get.
I'm looking for a "Gaza" type cam where we see live moving pictures.

Originally posted by Res Ipsa
Do we have a "live" webcam site? still pictures is all I get.
I'm looking for a "Gaza" type cam where we see live moving pictures.

Nope. The AVO is having enough trouble keeping the site up as it is. We're going to have to make due with stills.

reply to post by Blaine91555

Sounds like it won't be too bad then, as long as nobody ventures out unprotected and it isn't one of the other scenarios they thought might happen. Have they said anything on that? Or still saying it will probably be like the '89 one?

Hopefully it's a clear day when it erupts, so it can be seen and photographed. Not often you get to see a volcano erupt.

Latest observations:

Observers from the gas/observation flight today report continued melting at the summit area. Holes in the ice continue to grow exposing more steaming rock. Volcanic gases continue to be detected. Clear web camera views currently show a steam plume rising from the area of the 1989-90 lava dome.

next ...

Seismicity over the last hour has included the reappearance of periods of weak tremor at the summit stations. These signals are much weaker than the episodes from Friday afternoon.

Observers from the gas/observation flight today report continued melting at the summit area. Holes in the ice continue to grow exposing more steaming rock. Volcanic gases continue to be detected.

[edit on 1-2-2009 by violet]

one thing people should remember is the volcanic ash which is suspended in the atmosphere has big effects upon the weather.

for one the volcanic particulates act as a catylyst in the formation of water droplets so they perform a cloud and rain seeder role.
the rainfall of this nature is bad as the water droplets contain the nanoscale volcanic ash which then covers the land scape with the rainfall pattern,seeping into nooks and cranniesbuilding layers upon buildings.
when the volcanic ash is mixed with water it acts like a cement,that is why it is so dangerous to inhale it condenses with the water vapour in your longs and forms a cement like substance.

the volcanic ash littered rainfall is also significantly heavier than normal rainfall resulting in increased weight being placed upon buildings and structures.
infact vocanic rainfall is one of the most dangerous aspects of volcanic eruptions causing significant loss of life.
lets hope it rains down on haarp,giving it a good layer of volcanic cement ;-)

the volcanic ash also builds up strong electrical charges which usually causes heavy lightning storms,condusive to lightning storms.

on the upside anyone short in cement could possibly gather themselves a lifetimes supply,volcanic cement is far superiour to normal cement,stronger and longer lasting!
so you wont have to go homesless should your house fall down!

you could even build a skeletal structure designed to gather the ash and let it cement around it,a pre fabricated house if you will, a volcanic shed imagine that!

reply to post by welivefortheson


Volcanic ash is desired by the big cement maker(s). Perhaps if there's enough of it the big french conglamorate will be on hand to clean up the mess. They where there to clean up the Chile eruption, and tested it to see if it could be used for cement. I don't think with this volcano however, it will be enough to interest them.

I have been following this thread with interest. And are somewhat concerned that we were never informed of any precautions to take regarding ashfall except to disconnect roof water supply.
Here in NZ , mid nineties, one of our little babies decided to throw a tantrum , and we ended up with 5mm of ash cover several hundred km`s away.Admittedly it blew without warning, and most of the ash fell that night.Our biggest concern at the the time was livestock grazing on ash covered pasture.We worked for several days in the stuff, I even woke up to a covering of ash having drifted in through open windows, and of course the animals had to graze, lost neither man nor beast. Were we just lucky, or can ash composition differ?

This article mentions that hole AVO spoke of, but goes on to say it's "alarming".

Geologists monitoring Mount Redoubt for signs of a possible eruption noticed that a hole in the glacier clinging to the north side of the volcano had doubled in size overnight — and now spans the length of two football fields.

Scientists with the Alaska Volcano Observatory on Friday flew close to Drift Glacier and spotted vigorous steam emitted from a hole on the mountain. By Saturday, they had confirmed the area was a fumarole, an opening in the earth that emits gases and steam, that was increasing in size at an alarming rate.

They also saw water streaming down the glacier, indicating heat from magma is reaching higher elevations of the mountain.

"The glacier is sort of falling apart in the upper part," research geologist Kristi Wallace said.

The signs of heat add to concerns that an eruption is near, which could send an ash cloud about 100 miles northeast toward Anchorage, the state's largest city, or onto communities on the Kenai Peninsula, which is even closer to the mountain on the west side of Cook Inlet.

Associated Press

Wonder if that means larger eruption? Or the possibilty of flank collapse? Or is this typical for that volcano when it erupts?

[edit on 1-2-2009 by violet]

A couple of more powerful than average earthquakes have occurred in the past few hours near the summit of the volcano, or so RSO webicorder shows. I wonder if this means anything relevant.

[edit on 2009/2/1 by Shirakawa]

Originally posted by violet
reply to post by Blaine91555

 

Sounds like it won't be too bad then, as long as nobody ventures out unprotected and it isn't one of the other scenarios they thought might happen. Have they said anything on that? Or still saying it will probably be like the '89 one?

We are getting info on all the local news shows and radio news. They still believe it will be the same as the 89/90 as near as I can tell. If it is we get about 1/4 of ash and since these eruptions last months, we will likely get small amounts of ash now and then for a while.

They are constantly telling us to get masks and goggles and the stores have been getting shipments in to keep them on the shelves. People who don't know must be living in caves without access to news, but they are out there.

If you read the earlier statement I posted, you know that the other scenario's are possible. We could get a larger eruption which would mean more ash. If the wind patterns at various altitudes stay as they are, Anchorage will be well within the ash fall area.

This Page has ash cloud predictions based on the height of the eruption.

They have added new pictures to this page.

Looks like we will have another nice clear day here in Anchorage. We are having an extra cold winter. Our worst scenario would be if it shuts down the natural gas supply from that area. All our electricity is generated by it. No electricity or natural gas, means no heat. We just had the longest, worst cold spell in recorded history, following the third coldest summer and it looks like the rest of winter will be extra cold. We are staying right now 10 to 20 degrees (Fahrenheit) below normal nearly every day. No heat would mean frozen pipes everywhere and all sorts of problems.

The latest statement -

2009-02-01 09:43:33
Seismic unrest continues at Redoubt. Seismic activity is still well above normal background levels and is holding steady.

I'm guessing that "holding steady" is not the best of news and means the eruption is even closer.

This is the latest Webicorder image from the summit -

reply to post by Anonymous ATS


Ash can travel a long ways it appears. When St. Helens blew the second time the ash ended up dumping on Northern Idaho and into Montana. It actually destroyed Northern Idaho's economy that year.

Some info about Redoubt -

The people who flew over yesterday to take this picture are nuts. This is of the fumaroles at the dome from the 89/90 eruption.




Full size version link.

Originally posted by Blaine91555
Our worst scenario would be if it shuts down the natural gas supply from that area. All our electricity is generated by it. No electricity or natural gas, means no heat. We just had the longest, worst cold spell in recorded history, following the third coldest summer and it looks like the rest of winter will be extra cold. We are staying right now 10 to 20 degrees (Fahrenheit) below normal nearly every day. No heat would mean frozen pipes everywhere and all sorts of problems.

That was mentioned in the last FEMA report, below. They won't update again until monday. I hope for your sake and others this doesn't happen, esp when you say its that cold already.

Thanks for all your updates, it's interesting and helpful to have this info from someone who's living in the region.

The largest impact to infrastructure is the possibility of damage and loss of production capability to natural gas wells and transmission facilities from ashfall. Anchorage is supplied with natural gas for power generation from two sources, the Beluga Gas Fields and the Drift River area production platforms in the Cook Inlet. Turbine compressors could be damaged or need to be shut down and would stop the transmission of natural gas to power generation facilities. This lack of power generation would affect the entire Anchorage area.

Another area of concern is the Drift River Oil Terminal located just northwest of Redoubt volcano in the drainage area of the Drift River into the Cook Inlet. Marine Safety Detachment Kenai reports that the Drift River Oil Terminal is a manned facility and has seven 270,000 barrel storage tanks. The facility is accessible only by boat or aircraft.

FEMA Siituation Report for Redoubt

Last night I watched 2 movies about volcanoes, LA Volcano, where the LaBrea tar pits explodes, and then Dante's peak. I was thinking about you guys and when I awoke it was to a radio announcer talking about the probability of an eruption from Redoubt.


I was wondering if samples are being taken from local hot springs and also if there is any abnormal activity of animals?

Latest status report

REDOUBT VOLCANO (CAVW #1103-03-)
60°29'7" N 152°44'38" W, Summit Elevation 10197 ft (3108 m)
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH

Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues. Seismicity has remained relatively constant over the last 24 hours and is still well above background. A vapor plume is intermittently visible in the AVO web camera. It appears to rise no higher than the volcano's summit.

An observation and gas-measurement flight to the volcano yesterday noted continued vigorous fumarolic activity and runoff of muddy water down the north flank of the volcano. Volcanic gas was detected; data analysis is ongoing to compare these measurements with previously measured gas output.

Staff are currently monitoring the volcano 24 hours a day. We will issue further information as it becomes available.

AVO

Looks like there was just another weak volcanic tremor on the Redoubt webicorder. Those are dramatic pictures of the glacier melting, but it may still be a while.

I think it's waiting until we all stop watching, one of these nights around 3:00 am it will sound off.

Originally posted by Shirakawa
Latest status report

A vapor plume is intermittently visible in the AVO web camera. It appears to rise no higher than the volcano's summit.

AVO

This update says "above" the summit now. If that's any indication of change .. could be just a different way of wording it, above the crater, but not higher than the summit itself

Weather conditions are clear at the volcano and a vapor plume is visible rising above the summit crater.

[edit on 1-2-2009 by violet]