Alaska - Mt Redoubt Volcano could erupt within days, page 9

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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We are getting more complete info locally. Redoubt is still expected to go over the next two weeks. Those spikes you see are constant activity. Redoubt is far from silent.

I've been learning about what things mean and even got some questions answered directly from the AVO team.

They talk to the local TV and Radio daily. Nothing has changed in their prediction. I had a long conversation with a man who has been here through 3 prior eruptions. He tells me that the only problem is with the ash blowing around and that won't happen this time due to the time of year.

If anyone is waiting for us to blow up, that is not what is about to happen. We will have a nuisance for a day or two and have to change our cars air filters a time or two. At most we should see 1/10 of an inch of ash or less.

reply to post by Blaine91555

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Well I gotta say Blaine, you being there and being affected are taking it better than I am. Your original concern was a bit infectious. But it's funny how now you are the bearer of soothing words. Hats off to you bro! I think I read somewhere on there though that they expect the actual eruption to be preceded by more sustained harmonic tremors. And since we haven't seen any of those in days, it is possible the magma reached where it was going, and the cap is holding. For now.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by Blaine91555

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Well I gotta say Blaine, you being there and being affected are taking it better than I am. Your original concern was a bit infectious. But it's funny how now you are the bearer of soothing words. Hats off to you bro! I think I read somewhere on there though that they expect the actual eruption to be preceded by more sustained harmonic tremors. And since we haven't seen any of those in days, it is possible the magma reached where it was going, and the cap is holding. For now.

i would disagree, i see some HT around 14:30 to about 15:10 UTC today (although not sustained), although not too big ...

[edit on 5/2/09 by geogeek]

reply to post by geogeek

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I'd be curious to see if they actually consider that a harmonic tremor. My opinion is I doubt it. It is NOTHING compared to what was happening days ago. Those are the kind I was referring to. Intense, sustained, and saturating the graph. Those are so much of nothing relatively speaking, I am surprised you'd even mention it. But hey, it's always fun to disagree for the sole sakes of disagreement. I just got better things to do.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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HT down deeper in the plumbing is not going to necessarily saturate the recorders the way you want to see it , but it does indicate that fluids/and or melt are on the move .... Take it for what is worth (or not ...)

is it HT ? , well there are 2 options :
1) Wind Noise
2) HT ...
since it lasts only <30 minutes & seems to correlate with earthquakes, my version of Occam's Razor says its HT .... (others may have different opinions , and thats OK to )

[edit on 5/2/09 by geogeek]

reply to post by Shirakawa

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has it started to pop ?? ... d**n , no webcams ....

[edit on 5/2/09 by geogeek]

Latest update

2009-02-05 11:38:25
Starting at 11:18 AKST this morning, a strong burst of seismic tremor was recorded at Redoubt stations. Radar data show that no eruption occurred.

Tremor is ongoing but has decreased in amplitude

AVO

reply to post by Shirakawa

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Yes, now that is pretty clearly a sustained harmonic tremor.

www.avo.alaska.edu...

And even that is considerably smaller than some we've seen already at Redoubt. This is why my post above to geogeek, which I really felt just to be nitpicking at me.

OBVIOUSLY there are deeper movements that don't register like this one. But a more critical issue is when they are closer to the top, which is much more indicative of impending eruption. So I stand by my statement, geogeek. Believe what you want.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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Another update:

2009-02-05 12:26:13
Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues. Seismic activity remains elevated well above background levels. Starting at 11:18 AKST (20:18 UTC), a burst of more intense seismic tremor occurred. This episode lasted for about 4 minutes and was the most most energetic since January 30. Radar and pilot observations confirm our analysis that no eruption occurred. Web camera and satellite images from this morning have been obscured by clouds

reply to post by violet

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What's your point violet? That merely reflects what I've been saying. Yeah it was the biggest since January 30, but so what. It still didn't saturate graphs the way some others did. You posted this thread January 27th. Go read the OP. The Sunday they are referring to is January 25th. And it was the intense tremors leading up to the 25th that caused them to initiate the WATCH. Several larger sustained HT's happened from inception to the 30th. And they were much longer sustained and more intense than this last one. I just don't get it. I really should stick to music.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

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Every one of those seismic bursts indicats higher pressure building and the more likely that the puppy will blow its top.. Volcanos here are different than most.. We have, in a sense, pressurized, explosive, eruptions due to that great ring of fire. Alaska is a VERY seismic region, obviously so it's always releasing pressure and rebuilding pressure i.e. our wonderful mountain ranges. If Redoubt does not blow er top I will be very, very suprised!

reply to post by geogeek

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:-) Dont you love being right!

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by violet

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What's your point violet? That merely reflects what I've been saying. Yeah it was the biggest since January 30, but so what. It still didn't saturate graphs the way some others did. You posted this thread January 27th. Go read the OP. The Sunday they are referring to is January 25th. And it was the intense tremors leading up to the 25th that caused them to initiate the WATCH. Several larger sustained HT's happened from inception to the 30th. And they were much longer sustained and more intense than this last one. I just don't get it. I really should stick to music.

My point was posting a new update
I bolded the parts I deemed important for others following this volcano's activity.

I made no comment to you directly, just used your post as a 'reply to".
Nobody is arguing with you! No need to be so sensitive.

reply to post by Trexter Ziam

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hard to know what is happening in the plumbing system ... I would just put it down to statistical chance/fluke , unless U start seeing more negative correlations between HT & stream plumes ( another way of saying I have no clue, really ...)


I wouldn't draw any conclusions at this point/time about any apparent correlations .... maybe later it will be safer to draw a conclusion or two




[edit on 5/2/09 by geogeek]

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