The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

The strategy was successful but it just had a technical malfunction.

Nice save...what will that cost you?

:shk:

Hopefully nothing. I'll probably buy some VIX (volatility index) puts to hedge my BAC puts. Volatility/fear will go down if banks rise, so my BAC puts will head towards zero and my VIX will appreciate. If volatility/fear returns, then my BAC puts will increase and I will quickly pull my VIX options out. If the stock market opens flat/slightly down, I'll just sell the options for a loss like I was going to do anyway since my calls appreciated. Things will work out no worries

I would rather just sell my options rather than have to hedge and keep them in forever since I don't really want to hold puts

Actually dont laugh at him for this.

He is on to something here, but you can get burnt.

I believe the famous people from Stanford did the same thing that became multi billionaires, but russia blew up or something and they owed xxxxxxxxxxx amt. of dollars and actually had to get bailed out I believe..

I cant remember though..

But I know what you are doing, and I like it. I would look to a smaller window though - that is the key for the game you are playing IMO. PM me if you want to know more

By the way, I dont know if anyone uses these, but its like a "heat mapper"

Anyways, its pretty interesting nonetheless for free lol

stockcharts.com...

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

Actually dont laugh at him for this.

He is on to something here, but you can get burnt.

I believe the famous people from Stanford did the same thing that became multi billionaires, but russia blew up or something and they owed xxxxxxxxxxx amt. of dollars and actually had to get bailed out I believe..

I cant remember though..

But I know what you are doing, and I like it. I would look to a smaller window though - that is the key for the game you are playing IMO. PM me if you want to know more

You must be talkling about Stanford University....right?

NOT Stanford Financial, whose CFO claims that it was a ponzi scheme from the word go...

Their "Billions" can't help them now...

reply to post by RolandBrichter


Dude, I along with others can easily beat the SP 500 every year.

The only thing that holds others back (retail) is lack of investors, or someone that cannot "stick out" a system play.

Trading is an emotional game, and thats why at the same time a lot of people have other people run their programs and they don't even touch them. A lot of people are just "not good with emotions"

You have any idea how smart most of these people are? The guys that got blown up were playing the options game, but incorrectly - but you learn from your mistakes.. I believe that is who you and i coincidentally are referring to.

He is back though (although unless the guy you named had a partner, I dont believe it was him.. I will have to take a look), he has an interview somewhere on the internet that is ultra interesting. With the software available for retail players right now, if you put in 10 hours a day, you will find multiple systems that beat the SP500 and DJIA year over year.. there are inconsistencies in all time frames..

As to the question - "Well why aren't you flossing greenbicman?" - To that I reply I will be shortly (remember, I am coming from 0 once again), the work put in has cost me all social life along with all physical activity just about. I have bloodshot eyes (from more than 1 thing) and burning pain in my wrists from all the different coding and have prob gained 20 lbs in the last 4 months. It will pay off, I promise (or it better lol) - no but it will seriously i rule lol

reply to post by RolandBrichter


yes stanford

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
Now that's exactly why I'm done with this market play...

How in the hell can I figure out what to put...what to call...what to hedge...

Have to make like 5 marks on every trade to just cover...

Dumb...the only one making anything is the broker...LoL...

Buy TD ameritrade now?

[edit on 7/13/2009 by Hx3_1963]

I use interactive brokers . You are right, but I don't want to get buried with these puts and it was accidental that I kept these overnight. I just got home from work late. You're right, of course about the markets. It does resemble monopoly at times. But I know when to sell a position for a loss if need be, so I calculated the delta for the option's premium and calculated that if BAC increases by 45 cents tomorrow my options go down a little more than 20% to 21 cents/contract. Hopefully it doesn't go up more than that tomorrow, at least in the beginning. If BAC gaps down 5% then the premium will increase to around 33-34 cents. So I will be in a good position. But I just can't see BAC being down 5% tomorrow :shrugs: If BAC moves up another dollar? I lose 50%. 14 dollars is definitely in the cards for BAC so it is better to just throw the poker cards in and fight another day (I will lose all my profits from my calls!)

Da Kine, Brah....

I truly hope your endeavors pay off for you.....you see, I LOVE IT when people beat all the odds and come out on top...

However, this market, right now, today, is in no way predictable....it's not predictable because it has lost any and all correlation to free market fundamentals.....

You've done quite a bit of back testing, correct? Did your model predict the events of last September? What about March?

I'm not against you like you might think I am, but I've heard alot of salesmen claim that their market snake oil was new and improved...but the result is always the same...

Prove me wrong, and tell me where and when play a small wrap...Let's see how you do going forward... I'm not proud and I could use a little inspiration

reply to post by RolandBrichter


It doesnt "predict"

It reacts to the "equilibrium price method" as I have discussed a few times on this thread..

This is just one method of course, but if you are looking at all timetables (100 tick, 200 tick,1 minute,5 minute) you can "average subgraphs" and come up with an algorithm - but I cant take it any further than that

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Ahhh, I'm with you... But how do you calibrate to current market prices???
Especially when these current prices have no basis in free market behavior.....Impossible in the current climate IMHO....It's all hypothetical...

Well, you have your work cut out for you, 10 hours a day might not be enough...

Again, it is not my goal to discourage you (not that I could anyway)....I would love to tell my future grandchildren that I once corresponded with a Nobel Laureate...

I admit Stocks are not my gig I stick to what I know and when it comes to real estate I see things getting worse not better... Heck just as I was writing this post I got a new auction notice

Bankruptcy Auction: 22 Homes, 42 Lots in Central NC - All Properties to Sell Regardless of Price!

Listing Site
these arent junk but nice newer homes that for a number of reasons will sell for whatever they can get for them... that's just a drop in the bucket man, every month we're seeing thousands of homes go on the block... many of them dont sell at any price...

Say what you will... the market might be showing a temp increse but housing is just going to drag it back down...sooner or later

Originally posted by DaddyBare
Say what you will... the market might be showing a temp increse but housing is just going to drag it back down...sooner or later

Agreed. Especially here in South Florida, the housing market is still decreasing a lot. Not to mention the 2010 ARM resets from 2005 that will occur will put further pressure.

My prediction is that the DOW is going to finish around +50 the NAS -5 and the S&P -1.

If you want to know how I got these numbers I just went outside grabbed a little grass threw it up in the air, wet my finger a little bit to get a food feeling of the temperature, and then I went and sacrificed a cockroach to the Market Gods.

After a few minutes of waiting this is the answer that they gave me.

Just trying to add a little humor to the thread.

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife


We Native Americans have our own sacred ways handed down throughout the ages... We use the almighty Hornytoad to point the direction to go in
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/9183ce7ef359.jpg[/atsimg]
today he says the market will be mixed

So things are still iffy, stocks are mostly flat. WFC is down -3.1% today. BAC is down -1%. I sold my 10 dollar Aug 09 puts this morning for .26. I would have probably held for a longer period of time if they didn't have 10 dollar strikes, because BAC might bounce around a little but 14 dollars could definitely be in its picture this week and I would have lost another 60% of the money if it did that and the time decay would have just killed. So...yeah. We'll see if that was smart or not, but I don't believe in holding 10 dollar puts so there was no reason for me to do that when losing money in puts was planned. I am just glad BAC didn't open +5%.

reply to post by RolandBrichter


Once you come about the theory, there is really no way mathematically I can keep losing.

You need a bankroll though.. and it is certainly not for the weakhearted.

In one of my programs you can make up to 20,000 a day easily, but the drawdown during this could be upwards of -35,000 during a single trade..it is actually a proprietary system (as are all of mine) I made up, its sort of a martingdale system combined with equilibrium theory.

I have had people tell me that eventually you will reach the 6th sigma and your system will fold, but I haven't seen anything that would point to that at all so far (I think its mathmatically impossible).. but the backtesting is taking months, just for this one side of the system..

So in reality you would need about 500,000-1,000,000 starting and you would need to be cool as the other side of the pillow.

Not many can deal with something like that, but for the ones who can comes fortunes untold.

The simulating though takes forever, as there are so many trades etc, not to mention that, but I would have to purchase a seat on the exchange as well for multiple commission costs, this would be a must.

[edit on 14-7-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Once you come about the theory, there is really no way mathematically I can keep losing.

That scares me. Even the most brilliant mathematicians cannot come up with models to always win in the markets. Sometimes they are just random.

The simulating though takes forever, as there are so many trades etc, not to mention that, but I would have to purchase a seat on the exchange as well for multiple commission costs, this would be a must.

Having a seat on the exchange would be fun.

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Once you come about the theory, there is really no way mathematically I can keep losing.

That scares me. Even the most brilliant mathematicians cannot come up with models to always win in the markets. Sometimes they are just random.

The simulating though takes forever, as there are so many trades etc, not to mention that, but I would have to purchase a seat on the exchange as well for multiple commission costs, this would be a must.

Having a seat on the exchange would be fun.

Yes, I can lose - but keep losing... well that is what I am looking for.. I am doing the YMU9 Contract right now and am up from 6/22 to 6/23 +25682 dow points which equals $128,410 - not bad for 32 hours.. lol... but at one point I had a loss incurring of upwards of 58,000 on a single trade with it winning in the end of course.. the one trade I lost was only for 200 dollars I think it is 19-1 winning trades to losing trades so far

But the part you have to think about it I have about 800 trades as well so, yes the seat on the exchange would be a must its only 3000 a month I believe..

But think of it this way.

At any one time you only want to risk 2% of capital at a time. 50,000/2% equals a 2,500,000 starting account - but I am sure I will be down more than that at one point coming up.. like I said I want 10 years of backtesting, once I get this and if I get similar results, well $hit ill just go door to door here with a spreadsheet and get investors lol..

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Is this a sales pitch for your burgeoning software company?

Or maybe a subtle invitation to venture capitalists? What's the split? Stander might be interested...

reply to post by pause4thought


Stander prob. has a hand in oil wells in Iraq as well, the 7% year over year compounded interest he is earning on his gas and oil dpp's may not interest an investor like himself lol

But in all seriousness, I want 10 years of backtesting before I make any claims of course - it all has to be sound and legit or its worthless - also I need the maximum drawdown over that 10 year period to know how much funding exactly I need (at a 2% ratio)

Even though, as of right now im 22-1 winners to losers, you have to view the market as a totally random game, and I understand that.. no one will take you seriously if you say, "I just need to start out with the 5000 margin" lol as you hear some hawking

My dad and I are listening to a lobbyist right now about some tax changes most likely coming up - i will update if i hear anything interesting