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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on Jul, 10 2009 @ 11:57 PM
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You guys talking about something like this? :shk:

Major Lender Faces Crunch
online.wsj.com...

CIT Hires Bankruptcy Adviser as Payment Looms; Financier to 1 Million Businesses

CIT Group Inc., a lender to almost a million mostly small and midsize businesses across the country, is preparing for a possible bankruptcy filing after so far failing to win a government guarantee to help it borrow, said people familiar with the matter.

To prepare for a possible filing, CIT has retained the law firm of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP, which has a prominent bankruptcy practice, these people said.

The mere hiring of bankruptcy counsel doesn't mean a company will actually make a bankruptcy filing. CIT has been pressing its case "with increased urgency to the government," said a person familiar with the matter, and is hopeful because "the government has not said absolutely no to anything."

CIT has a $1 billion payment due in mid-August and it is unclear the company "will be able to handle that," said this person. The company will give more guidance when it discusses second quarter earnings in two weeks.

CIT declined to comment on whether it was preparing a filing or why it had retained Skadden Arps. But if CIT did file, the consequences could be considerable, because the 101-year-old company, as of March 31, had $68 billion of liabilities.
More at Link...

[edit on 7/11/2009 by Hx3_1963]




posted on Jul, 11 2009 @ 05:30 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


Well, you wont nec. need BAC to have + - earnings..

I think WFC will be showing its weakness soon, and I think CITI surprises many... those 2 alone should send the banking sector into a "jig"

IMO a real cheap lottery ticket is Citi - too many naysayers and I have been hearing rumors about how good their auto trading programming is


Yeah I have heard about CITI's possibly blow out earnings. But hell...it was a rumor...

I don't like WFC or JPM. I think BAC is a much better valuation based on its stock price compared to the other two. I really "feel" like WFC and JPM must correct before the markets go inexhaustably higher..



posted on Jul, 11 2009 @ 07:50 AM
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Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
I think BAC is a much better valuation based on its stock price compared to the other two. I really "feel" like WFC . . .



WFC? It goes like WTF, no?

Stander!


What? That's how it goes: After Wednesday comes Thursday and then Friday -- the last day of the week trading, no?



posted on Jul, 11 2009 @ 11:14 AM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


We saw kind of a rising double bottom in the S&P at 870 and the Dow just below 8100 short term. GBM saved me with his "bear flags" comment when the Dow hit 8800, I was just about ready to unload my short positions.

Usually the longer term patterns stall before they retrace especially at support levels like 8000 with only a 10% pullback so I'm not real bullish yet. I did make some money going long on oil as I explained yesterday morning which proves i'm not a permabear.

Trading oil usually feels unethical to me unless its really oversold or overbought. I also absolutely hate holding anything over the weekend that gets traded globally so I sold at the close of the day.

There are a number of approaches you can take to working a spread. I'm still learning, and think of big percentage advances and declines more like a sack race rather than higher frequency day trading. The cash settlement rules for day trades don't help much in that department.

Redhatty seems to have found other places to post so maybe GBM will feel more comfortable about sharing his bullish speculations.



posted on Jul, 11 2009 @ 04:23 PM
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reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate
 


I will post some charts later that better explain my positions.

I am running my simulations right now so when it is not tied up I will do that this afternoon

Thanks for the nice words



posted on Jul, 11 2009 @ 08:33 PM
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pragcap.com...

This is a great blog entry on a research paper on algorithmic trading and how it is a big problem for markets and why it should be stopped. Literally, nobody can do this trading unless you have super computers at the NYSE because the trades are in microseconds seeking to making a half a penny here or there not caring which way the market is moving and that it creates a false sense of volume because it does this many times a day with millions of shares. So it harms the institutions and small investors while favoring a couple of firms with computers at the NYSE that are able to make these trades fast enough and numerous enough to make a partial penny. The solution that is presented? The SEC should make it mandatory that you must hold a stock for at least a second. No more microseconds so you can do this crap anymore.



posted on Jul, 11 2009 @ 10:33 PM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


This is a theory and meant for educational purposes only!

I never responded to you how we get the billions of dollars, but the article you posted is exactly what I was thinking.

You get x amount of people running the program and you just automate it to sell to make not even pennies. You put a hundred dollars in and you figure there are thousands of microseconds in a trading day and all those fractions add up. Not to mention it wouldn't be on just one stock. And when you get a few computers running together it is a pseudo super computer.

In fact, I would imagine anybody with a half way decent knowledge could write an automated trading algorithm. It's just refining the algorithm to be super efficient and fast.

_________

I agree though that automated trading should be made illegal. This just verifies that GS was manipulating the markets.

Warning: Rhetorical dumb question following.

Why aren't the Feds investigating GS?



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 04:43 AM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


Situation is the same as in sports.
Without sophisticated photo finish it would not be possible to make new records in many athletic or swimming disciplines.

If there ever was a purpose for market, it is now lost to this personal indulging in "beating" everyone else to it.

To what?



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 08:21 AM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


Remember when the financial were going down the hill, it started as rumors while the CEOs where claiming that everything was peachy.

Then the crash came down and we were all claiming foul play.



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 09:06 AM
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I wouldn't go putting all my faith in trading algorithm's or anyone's charts.... your forgetting the human element and right now a lot of people expect another crash, soon... Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting a decline this coming fall...

All your charts and graphs, your algorithm may scream buy buy buy... but it only takes one little bit of bad news to scare investors enough to trigger a flood of sell orders... you could very well find yourself broke faster than you can say (WTF) Fear or hope controls the markets more than any fancy program could ever hope too..



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 03:13 PM
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Originally posted by DaddyBare
I wouldn't go putting all my faith in trading algorithm's or anyone's charts.... your forgetting the human element and right now a lot of people expect another crash, soon... Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting a decline this coming fall...

All your charts and graphs, your algorithm may scream buy buy buy... but it only takes one little bit of bad news to scare investors enough to trigger a flood of sell orders... you could very well find yourself broke faster than you can say (WTF) Fear or hope controls the markets more than any fancy program could ever hope too..


TA may aid in determining what to do, but TA doesn't tell you what to do. And you are right, the markets are one big swish pool of human emotion, and I truly feel that people who rely on computers will be successful as long as they can determine what to do, but will be decimated if something surprising comes out (such as in '08, there were so many algorithmic and quant hedge funds that went belly up it's crazy).

By the way daddybare, crashes come when people least expect it...not when they most expect it...same with rallies...



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 03:14 PM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


In reality what they are doing is trying to pick off VWAP orders from dark liquidity pools.

VWAP = volume weight adjusted price

These little games they play are worth pennies yes.. although they really don't look for small round lots they look for big volume at certain times to try to pick them off and front run

I do agree though, you should have to hold for more than 1 second, although I havent seen anything in Level 2 or my DOM DEPTH that would tell me that it is ruining the markets.. and i watch this pretty closely all day long



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 03:20 PM
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reply to post by DaddyBare
 


Programs adjust when the price does, its not like it says keep buying till you are broke

At the same time, not everything works all the time obviously, thats why you program stops etc..

When you are hearing people calling for another crash , well that in reality usually equals BUY lol

My programs are designed for different timeframes (1 min - 5 min - 15 min) and different times of days (800-13:00, 14:00-16:00)

TA is just a way of feeling where you are at and if you can capitalize on that "momentum"

Like I said, if you are not doing this stuff for hours and hours a day, you can't really have any reference as to all of this works



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 03:23 PM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
When you are hearing people calling for another crash , well that in reality usually equals BUY lol


Exactly. We will see 9500 before 6000 DOW. I don't care if people "expect" there to be a crash. I do too. But not when there is so much caution. That just doesn't happen/ Crashes happen when people are too euphoric and then a trader/investor says, wait I'm taking my money out because this has gone too far, and then everyone panics and does it too so they aren't the last one.



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 04:36 PM
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The economic news hasn't changed that much since we were at a high of 8800 on the Dow, but we are 10% less over bought now. Many people that did not feel the market was over bought back in June are currently surprised and worried. GBM talking about an imminent rally next week is a good indicator that some bulls are getting ready to get back into the market. The Dow 10,000 expectations are probably muted though. Perhaps the bulls feel that after a 50% retrace of the losses back up to 8400 we will get some good economic news that will continue the rally to 9200? I've been spending a lot of time looking for technical leading indicators that might support such a scenario, but most everything I'm watching is neutral right now. Only exception is the 2 recent bottoms in the S&P and Dow that no one else has mentioned.



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 04:58 PM
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Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
The economic news hasn't changed that much since we were at a high of 8800 on the Dow, but we are 10% less over bought now. Many people that did not feel the market was over bought back in June are currently surprised and worried. GBM talking about an imminent rally next week is a good indicator that some bulls are getting ready to get back into the market. The Dow 10,000 expectations are probably muted though. Perhaps the bulls feel that after a 50% retrace of the losses back up to 8400 we will get some good economic news that will continue the rally to 9200? I've been spending a lot of time looking for technical leading indicators that might support such a scenario, but most everything I'm watching is neutral right now. Only exception is the 2 recent bottoms in the S&P and Dow that no one else has mentioned.


Economic news may pick up for a period of time but real news won't be better and that will show. I think banks reporting next week matter...especially BAC and CITI which have been beaten up and forgotten as of late. There is NO WAY banks can stay in the background because without them, there is no inflation and there is no credit. Who knows...We could always stay flat. There is a lot of waiting and watching right now.

[edit on 12-7-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 07:45 PM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate
 


I will post some charts later that better explain my positions.

I am running my simulations right now so when it is not tied up I will do that this afternoon

Thanks for the nice words



Here you go

I have made a lot of annotations and theories on the chart..

On some the writing is small so hopefully your browser allows you to enlarge


chart 1


chart 2


chart 3



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 09:03 PM
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Hmmm...going down fast...

Hang Seng 17,307.77 10:08PM ET Down 400.65 (2.26%)
Nikkei 225 9,192.84 10:00PM ET Down 94.44 (1.02%)
Shanghai Composite 3,089.33 10:05PM ET Down 24.60 (0.79%)

Seoul Composite 1,404.75 10:02PM ET Down 23.87 (1.67%)
Seoul Composite 1,399.79 10:04PM ET Down 28.83 (2.02%)

Taiwan Weighted 6,578.87 10:03PM ET Down 190.99 (2.82%)
Taiwan Weighted 6,559.19 10:04PM ET Down 210.67 (3.11%)
Taiwan Weighted 6,546.48 10:05PM ET Down 223.38 (3.30%)
Taiwan Weighted 6,528.20 10:06PM ET Down 241.66 (3.57%)

DJIA Futures
8098.52 8058.0 -40.52

[edit on 7/12/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 09:28 PM
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* Monday: June Treasury Budget
* Tuesday: June Producer Price Index (PPI), June retail sales, May business inventories
* Wednesday: June Consumer Price Index (CPI), July Empire State (NY) Index, June industrial production and capacity utilization, Fed minutes, weekly crude inventories
* Thursday: July Phili Fed survey, July National Association of Homebuilders Index, weekly initial jobless claims
* Friday: June housing starts and building permits

All this week. Including earnings reports by: BAC, C, JNJ, GS, JPM, GE, IBM, GOOG, INTC and some others.

Very big week. If everything is good I can't see how this market won't rally hard or go down a bit (I can't see it crashing, sorry, but I can be wrong and my posts can be pulled up and laughed at!
)



posted on Jul, 12 2009 @ 09:45 PM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


Thanks... Any ``predictions`` on how the numbers will be? Anyone?

Also... I would like to see the GOVERNMENT INCOME for May and June...




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