The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

The dollar index dropped all the way down to 79.42 today on the inflation news which probably helped. The rally Looks a little over exuberant to me but then long term bears always see things that way.

This rally is a short covering rally. There really isn't much volume at all and the stocks that are rallying most have the most short interest (compare CITI to BAC for example) or look at the run up in U.S. Steel. Note to self: if a company has over 25% short interest as a percent of float, buy it next time.

Also, JP Morgan reports. They have an estimated earnings of 2 cents per share. Where the flying fu*k these analysts get these numbers is ridiculous. I won't be surprised to see JP Morgan earn at least 20 cents per share.

Its make or break time with my favorite leading indicator NASDAQ.

As I have been saying, the NASDAQ and HSI are the leading indicators for us to look at.

Looks like finally my 20 50 200 EMA has happened.

This last 10-12 trading days looks like that "comeback and confirmation and bounce" I have been talking about over the past 500 posts on this thread.

I am officially not worried anymore (yes I am putting that out on the line), and I think this market is going to take off from here. The 50 EMA has crossed and held the 200 EMA and this should signal game on. It is odd that is coincides with earnings season.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/eb30e648fd21.png[/atsimg]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

I am officially not worried anymore (yes I am putting that out on the line), and I think this market is going to take off from here. The 50 EMA has crossed and held the 200 EMA and this should signal game on. It is odd that is coincides with earnings season.

As long as there are big moves and it doesn't stay flat, I make money. So I don't care if it crashes or rallies personally...

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Look at the moving average convergence/divergence at the bottom of the chart.. that is telling you we should move from here... IMO very much up.. but this again is all my opinion and I have been wrong before!!

Is it me or we gonna have big doom friday?

CIT isn't bailed out... and they give money to 300.000 small businesses.

Any news on that?

And the stock market going up is totally stupid.

The government is chosing the stock market instead of the dollar... THANKS!

reply to post by GreenBicMan

In one of my programs you can make up to 20,000 a day easily, but the drawdown during this could be upwards of -35,000 during a single trade..

IF up and down price fluctuations are actually more cyclical than a purely random distribution you could use a martingale method to diminish your prior losses.

For example a high frequency trader could take a position long or short betting on whether the next tick will be up or down a penny. If they lose the penny they either bet double on the next tick or increase their leverage to cover the lost penny plus make a penny. This progresses from 1 cent to 2 cents 3, 7, 15, 29, cents etc until they bust or win. When they win they drop back to the original penny bet and start over. You would have to lose 26 or more straight times to bust at 35,000 dollars. That theoretically would earn you a penny on every tick the whole day if you bet on every tick without busting. A run of 26 heads flipping a coin is pretty rare but it happens.

That is one reason you have to be careful analyzing systems that occasionally bust big. You may have some risk leverage going on that just gives you good preliminary results but will bust big sometime a year down the road.

I would never dare risk being down 35000 on a single trade for 20 grand a day. Sometimes one of the usually reliable patterns you are depending on can change without warning and that happens too often.

These days day trading for an individual is becoming synonymous with gambling. There may be some inside information that gives a few individual day traders enough of an edge to make a profit but it is simply gambling for the majority.

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
These days day trading for an individual is becoming synonymous with gambling. There may be some inside information that gives a few individual day traders enough of an edge to make a profit but it is simply gambling for the majority.

You are right that short term trading can sometimes be synonomous to gambling...speculating...

Also..about like doubling down and tripling down...tell that to my dad who invested in Citrix during the tech bubble. Lost 1 million dollars

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
I am officially not worried anymore (yes I am putting that out on the line), and I think this market is going to take off from here. The 50 EMA has crossed and held the 200 EMA and this should signal game on. It is odd that is coincides with earnings season.

Not being cynical here, but are you basing that bold claim just on the technicals? And how high do you see it going?




[edit on 15-7-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


You are right, but it wasnt straight martingale, that is rediculous when all the sudden you could have 1000 contracts on the line and suffer your whole life savings lol

That system had a 100,000 drawdown after I was up about 3x that but i stopped it right there bc if one loss is 33% then that system is bunk

I have a new one for the ES MINI on a 10 tick chart I am rolling with the past 20 hours on a live sim..

But unless you are prepared with the best information systems, something like td ameritrade etc. wont cut it in this game

reply to post by RolandBrichter


I see a bull market..

No limit as of right now, have to let it play out

And it is all based on technicals

DJIA 8568.21 8516.0 -52.21
S&P 929.48 922.9 -6.58

FTSE 100 4,337.55 4:30AM ET Down 8.91 (0.20%)
CAC 40 3,170.80 4:46AM ET Down 0.47 (0.01%)
DAX 4,925.59 4:31AM ET Down 2.85 (0.06%)

Gold $935.68

Oil $61.15

[edit on 7/16/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by GreenBicMan


High frequency arbitrage the way GS does it probably just evens up the half penny or so that stock prices fluctuate within a microsecond window. If their computer is less than a microseconds distance from the exchange there is no time lag and it is a sure thing that they will get the half cent. That is just the way old school arbitrage from the 80's worked.

Its fun trying to figure out how to beat the markets but as you obviously realize an individual day trader paying $3 a trade is going to have a tough time walking their trades for small short term gains and that gives the big players the edge.

Market price patterns might have more of a fractal nature as you move up from the tick to the 10 tick, 100 tick, minute, hourly and then the daily weekly and monthly time cycles. Theoretically martingale could be used to remove some of the losses due to randomness in the price fluctuations if there is enough signal in the noise. Your system would work sort of like a super heteronym radio receiver so that you profit from the the signal without losing money to the noise.

The story about the Russian born ex GS employee illegally uploading software to Germany got me thinking about how modern arbitrage might work. Certainly you can't do 80's style sure thing arbitrage from outside the country. Your system would have to be designed handle trade data that was over 50 milliseconds old?

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
Gold $935.68

Oil $61.15

xkeresto.files.wordpress.com... $49.99

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


Well modern arb. is done very very carefully lol

Imagine throwing up huge orders on spy to scalp and other ETF's

That and futures scalping are the big games played right now.

Futures though foremost, bc of virtually no spread and no MM's to throw you off, ALMOST everyone is on the same playing field lol

Then you also have the guys that short xx and xx and xx while buying xx and xx and xx


EDIT:

I go for a 50ms chart update... but in reality it is prob. not that at all.. more like 500ms probably.. and 10 ticks yes

[edit on 16-7-2009 by GreenBicMan]

JPM reported a .32/share on revenue and analysts believed it would be .04/share! WTF!

JPM did have some bearish statements which is why they may be down 1.5% today

It said credit quality in consumer mortgages and credit cards is deteriorating faster than it expected.

www.cnbc.com...



Also it is worth noting their profit was mostly derived from investment banking, which is detached from the real economy. Also, this may produce some worries about BAC and CITI's earnings that are being reported tomorrow since they are very attached to the real economy.

[edit on 16-7-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

Dr. Stander, is it possible that the Dow will continue moving upward after this unprecedented gain?

Well, according to my projection the Dow will close just 20 points lower.

Interesting. I asked, because all available short-term extrapolations point toward sizable profit-taking. What technique did you use to arrive at this result?

Well, in this case I used point-to-point straight line indicator.

Pardon me?

Let me explain. This method is based on analyzing a unique item in the list – we call it “the loner” method. As you see there is only one company that is in red after the big rally of yesterday.


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8f736e1f4592.jpg[/atsimg]

McDonald’s.

Yes, Mc Donald’s. And that’s the source matrix for the straight line extrapolation that indicates the 20-point loss.

I don’t follow.

Well, let me show you the graph . . .




[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/0d579385ac4e.jpg[/atsimg]


Aah, I see. Thank you very much, Dr. Stander.

You are very welcome, Mr. Paulson.

reply to post by stander


Stander you have to add 100 per every incremental herbal essence mickey mouse bounce on the charts. So it will be -1020 I believe. You can see the ear formation and herbal essence shampoo formation in the background. You may even see Minnie Mouse screaming at Mickey in the background to not use all the herbal essence, that is very bearish imo!

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


The profit came despite a $1.1 billion charge, or 27 cents a share, as JPMorgan repaid in full $25 billion in loans it received from the government as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. The bank was also hit by a 10-cents-a-share FDIC special assessment penalty.

How they made this profit was by raising fees on everything.. trade fees, loans and CC %... Technically their still losing money, hemorrhaging money is a better way to say it but thanks to a little creative accounting they can say, "Hey look we made money this quarter"!

We'll see if that's still the case this fall and people pull back spending while the kids go back to school

CIT won't be getting any aid now, officially. CIT stock collapsed by 76%, 1 dollar puts up 600%.