The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


I was actually referring to march levels of dow at 6800

Back in 1932 the Dow lost 25 years of gains to end up back at the 1907 lows. That kind of loss would put the inflation adjusted Dow back down to around 4000 today in a worst case scenario. The stock market and the country would survive but we would probably be looking at a real global crisis. Many of the analysts were talking about a bottom of 5500 for the Dow back in February.

If the recent run up turns out to be a bear market rally, I don't really know where the second bottom would be or when it might occur. Even with a second wave of downtrends it is hard to believe that things could continue to look bad out through 2011.

[edit on 31-5-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


The only problem I have with Dow at 5500 is that means many large banks that got bailed out are toast, and many insurance companies would be at the failing point at that level, which would destory retirement wealth, and the whole insurance industry..

5500 is living on the edge...

IMO (and i know some or most will disagree) I would start to buy the hell out of the market if it did drop to 6800-7000 again, because if it drops under 6000 we might not be the USA anymore anyways, and all wealth and rights in this country would vanquish (according to my first paragraph in this post, if I think what would happen, would)

The recession will continue to ease in the short-medium term. This is numbers, not for the people. This is all I care about right now. I think things will continue to look better...but I don't think that was "it" for the worst financial crisis since 1930.

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate
Back in 1932 the Dow lost 25 years of gains to end up back at the 1907 lows. That kind of loss would put the inflation adjusted Dow back down to around 4000 today in a worst case scenario. The stock market and the country would survive but we would probably be looking at a real global crisis. Many of the analysts were talking about a bottom of 5500 for the Dow back in February.

If the recent run up turns out to be a bear market rally, I don't really know where the second bottom would be or when it might occur. Even with a second wave of downtrends it is hard to believe that things could continue to look bad out through 2011.

[edit on 31-5-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

Option ARMs resets are beginning again and getting real heavy through 2011. Lost equity and rising interest rates are making it impossible to refi. Not to mention that the commercial foreclosures are just now starting in earnest. IMO there is no relief in the 'forseeable' future, just gonna get much worse.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Some traders think the stock won't even open. Total wipe out of the stock...

[edit on 31-5-2009 by Vitchilo]

Likely scenario: Stock will trade in premarket and get halted prior to 9:30am for news pending. It will remain halted until it reopens on the pink sheets. That's when it gets fun.

A look at this chart of the S&P tells me we have plenty of capitulation to do:


S&P Chart

Consider that run from 1995 - 2000. I see a nice double top. Also, look at the increase in volume last year. Finally, look at the lower volume on smaller peaks (using a 1 year chart). I don't see much confidence here - I see churning.

reply to post by titian


Really?

I see a bottoming out with high volume correlation at out last bottom here..

The DJIA doesn't look like a DBL top, but the SP500 does..

Either way calling "waves" with a 7 year chart is a VERY RISKY thing to do, and IMO this sort of technical analysis should be used to predict shorter term profits/losses..

I think thats kind of a useless chart, I don't mean anything by that, but you know what I mean...

There will also be people that argue that the .gov artificially pumped $$$ into the market to avoid this double top.. but you didn't hear that from me! lol

At the same time too, you could say the SP500 tested its bottom the same way it tested its top.. so will will test the top again..

A lot of interpretations to be made from that chart..

Here is an old link from a gold bug that shows the number of weeks it took to move from peak stock market price to bottom during historic bear market selloffs.

www.gold-eagle.com...

Edit: This is an old link without a 2009 bottom..

We are only about 80 weeks from the 2007 top so unless it really turns out to be just a garden variety recession there could be more bottoming action ahead.

[edit on 31-5-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


wait.. in that article it said the bear low was in the 8000's for this recession?

EDIT:

yeah, it def. does.. should be 6800 or something.. or am i misinterpreting this chart?

[edit on 31-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by titian
A look at this chart of the S&P tells me we have plenty of capitulation to do:


S&P Chart

Consider that run from 1995 - 2000. I see a nice double top. Also, look at the increase in volume last year. Finally, look at the lower volume on smaller peaks (using a 1 year chart). I don't see much confidence here - I see churning.

That chart tells me nothing. It is nothing new that this rally is based on much lower volume than usual rallies. But that doesn't mean the market is going to crash. Besides, if it does, you can bet plenty of people will be buying the dips that didn't benefit from the rally (which is a lot of people). There is a lot of important economic data coming out that will either give more fuel for a continuing rally or provide hurdles.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by titian
There will also be people that argue that the .gov artificially pumped $$$ into the market to avoid this double top.. but you didn't hear that from me! lol

At the same time too, you could say the SP500 tested its bottom the same way it tested its top.. so will will test the top again..

A lot of interpretations to be made from that chart..

I am arguing that this is mainly the gov. and some large institutions buying this market. Which is why I don't think it is over because the government won't "panic sell". The Fed has "lost track" of money. BS. It is probably in BAC, etc. If this continues more people will begin to enter, especially with news that is continually "better than expected". So this rally has the makings of a longer rally. But it is still smoke and mirrors. The equity markets are very easy for the gov. to manipulate, while the debt markets are not because the sheer size and difference governments and parties involved make it much more difficult to do so.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Yeah, Fed lost trillions, GSCO was there to sweep that up into the pits lol

Military cant account for billions?

Oops, JPMChase will be there for a shoulder to cry on lol

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

Yeah, Fed lost trillions, GSCO was there to sweep that up into the pits lol

Military cant account for billions?

Oops, JPMChase will be there for a shoulder to cry on lol

You know it is the government when it is huge buying blocks that are market orders and it is nonsensical buying that institutions that want to make money would never do. The government doesn't have to worry about losing or gaining. This is how I feel. I think the gov. is hard set to bring money back into the equity market because if that continues to crash then companies will lose money and sentiment will be bad. That is the only reason why you see consumer sentiment turn is because they keep seeing green on their TV's. When they keep hearing the stock market hit new lows yesterday, then it is armageddon...

[edit on 31-5-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Your theory, while unproved, prob. actually holds a lot of water.

You are correct about the market buys (see redhatty comment about losing 1.25 million dollars buying market on friday, or whatever amt. it was)

I mean they can theoretically just keep buying and buying until the retail investors cant stomach it anymore and think its all good again, then go back into the buying cycle that we have missed out on here lately..

Yeah, I could see that as one hypothesis, totally.

Well Japan openly stated that they would directly support their equity markets (to prevent a complete collapse) which does make some sense.

If that's whats going on in the US, then its more likely that the US government is only providing "bridge loan support" to the equity markets till JQPublic starts seeing the green shoots.

That Friday spike was weird, took out all the stops to the upside. You would think that would leave a bunch of PO'd day traders in long positions they did not want to be in come the beginning of this week? Anyone bragging about trying to take out the 200 EMA?

[edit on 31-5-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


good call..

this may be in the works

i.e. PPT

That is really the main reason why I think that a rally will continue with minimal pull backs for a while because the government wants to lure retail investors and institutions that were burned bad back into the market so they can create an illusion that things are better. Combine that with the "green shoots" that may get longer with continual fiscal and monetary stimulus and with inflation (asset prices increase), they can create a whole new "bull market".

My question is, what happens when they NEED to sap up the liquidity? The underlying problems that caused this mess are still there.

I mean look at the Libor rates which some people are saying it is a sign banks have more confidence in each other. Well of course they do, there is so much cash for them to loan to each other due to low interest rates that they are GUARANTEED to make money. But that CANNOT last forever. In the end fundamentals and the markets win. But right now, as the saying goes, buy what the government is buying.

reply to post by titian


Looks like I was wrong about GM. BK filing at 08:00 tomorrow.

GM to Name Al Koch to Top Restructuring Position, WSJ Reports

Well guys futures are back open..

Sitting at exactly 8499 on the YMM9, still above the 20 Period EMA, haven't touched it yet.. 20 period is at 8490 and as I am typing this we are at 8487.. so prob going to test that..

Im pretty excited for this week.. I dont think its going to be a "flat" trading week - I think we see some good action to the up or down side.. cross your fingers