posted on Jul, 5 2005 @ 08:49 AM
Originally posted by The Vagabond
We now interrupt this week's edition of Sino-Indian Phallic Insecurity, with hosts Chinawhite and StealthSpy, to bring you a word from our
This segment sponsored in part by- JAPAN. Remember viewers, when you want to talk about the topic of this thread, think JAPAN.
We now return to our regularly scheduled program.
1. China has absolutely no national interest in actually attacking Japan unless they don't believe that deterrence will work against Japan, or unless
they believe that Japanese deterrence will backfire with North Korea and cause a nuclear exchange. Logically, China's best military recourse is
almost certainly to subvert Kim Jong Il, not to go to war with Japan.
2. China can pull the economic rug out from under America, but can not project enough force to the middle east via central Asia or anywhere else by
sea to stop America from castrating the Chinese economy in retaliation. These two nations can not cross eachother, nor would they really want to. The
only way China will attack Japan is if they calculate a 100% chance that America will not react- this would require a grevious misunderstanding of the
role of public outrage in a democracy.
3. Public discussion of nuclearization in Japan is for public consumption. Japan is just testing some emerging ambiguity about the relevance of their
constitutional pledge to forego belligerence. Any meaningful decision about remilitarization, especially nuclearization, will be made in private. Thus
the entire thing is almost certainly a non issue unless Chinese intelligence makes a significant miscalculation.
4. A Japanese Boogeyman could be very useful to China on diplomatic and covert/subversive fronts, especially for forcing re-unification of the Koreas
(and thus getting America out) as well as possibly bringing Taiwanese sentiment around to a point where they would trade some autonomy for greater
protection. They don't need to crush Japan just for pride's sake- if there's no real threat, this could be a good thing for them.
Some very valid points from soneone who actually knows what they're talking about.
Re point # 1; my feeling is that if there's a serious oil shock in the months and years ahead, as I believe there may be, then the gloves may come
off, resulting in more extreme behaviour from China to gain access to resources. This may include an act of aggression against Japan.
Regarding the younger Kim in North Korea; as I understand it, a junta of elderly aparatchics installed by his father may be about to depose him. Yes,
these individuals will pose a real threat compared to the relatively pro-Western Kim Jong Il.
I agree with point 3 and 4, however I believe that if push comes to shove should oil reaches $100 a barrel, then things could get very hot in the
Fortunately, there's still only one navy in the world that can shut down all world trade in one week. China knows this.
cheers & thanks