China says it will attack Japan if it goes nuclear

the koreas, another hardcase to crack.

Here are my feelings:

1. CHina for whatever reason wants revenge on Japan so they attack
2. The US mobilizes as they have bases in Japan
3. China knowing that the US is pulled to cover thier bigger ally japan attacks taiwan
4. The US uses South Korean bases
5. NK seeing the chance to rid themselves of Kim
6. NK forces crawl threw the turrets in a surprise attack on SK against the wishes of China
7. as the dust settles the Koreans are united

this is the next step to worst case senerio the worst would be:

China attacks and takes control of siberia while Iran invades Iraq and Afghanistan as she sends missiles over to Irseal while the US cant protect them. The UN vetoes everything and Nato sits on its butt afriad to fight a real fight.

I'm not too sure about Char2c35t's scenario- especially the worst case scenario at the bottom. Some of it seems a little random.

I agree fully with JamesinOz that oil prices are a likely flashpoint for the Pacific. Who attacks where? My feeling is that it's all eyes on Indonesia, and Japan isn't really even in the running, except where playing defense. Japan is going to have to work with America (and thus with Australia) to ensure its future oil flow by means other than conquest.

When oil goes through the roof, India and China each have two options. China can go into central Asia, step on Russia's toes a bit, and lock up a fair chunk of natural gas in the "Stans" and the Caspian Sea. They wouldn't hit Iran, they'd look to make Russia look weak and force Iran to export to China willingly.

India has roughly the same option but it is far less realistic because they have Pakistan in their way and aren't entirely in a position to mess with Russia, especially while competing with China.

The Second option, which makes a lot of sense for both of these nations, is Indonesia. Indonesia is exporting significantly more to the US and Japan than to China or India (they AREN'T exporting to India).
India could theoretically try the amphibious route, but only if they are confident that nobody is going to stop them. They can't risk the US cutting their supply lines. Otherwise they have to go overland, which is tougher and takes longer, but also takes the fight off of Indian soil if they come to blows with China. From there they can head down the Malay peninsula and make a couple of very small Island hops through Indonesia- assuming nobody tries to stop them- I suspect that China and or Australia (with American support) might.
China is in the same boat- they can go the land route, the long ocean route, or the REALLY long ocean route. the long ocean route leaves their supply lines unsecured against the US Navy. The REALLY long route makes stops in Taiwan and the Phillipines so that they can emplace aircraft to keep the US Navy hedged out of Indonesia. The problem here is that the battle lines are gong to extend all the way down to the Northern coast of Australia and really fighting to win would mean invading Australia- which carries a huge risk of this war getting out of hand.

Siberia may constitute a third option, but only if China honestly believes that Russia is a dying old man, unable to fight and afraid to use nukes. I don't see it happening at this point- unless there's something about the state and maintenance of Russia's nukes that I don't know.

Japan fits into all of this because they have to defend Indonesia (with help from Australia and the USA. They probably will try to to fight on the home front- unless China comes for them- because their position is relatively weak, strategically speaking. If they have to defend themselves against China, don't put t past the Japanese to plan on simply nuking an inbound invasion force and double-dog-daring China to retaliate. The thing about nuking inbound troops is that nobody can really say anything to you about it- they had it coming- and the enemy no longer has the means to take what it wants from you- so they can either call off the war or let MAD take its course..


This war is still pretty bloody unthinkable, but that doesn't mean that China and or India wouldn't take a shot at it.
My guess, believe it or not, is that the West may actually back down and go get their oil somewhere else- Indonesia is no Saudi Arabia. I figure we'd arm Australia to the teeth, especially with nukes, and tell the Chinese to enjoy their oil and don't screw with our friend.
Meanwhile, I suspect that Syria and Iran, and quite possibly a few nations on the Arabian Peninsula, including Saudi herself, had better stand by for a little ruckus
We also have to remember though that as the technology to deal with deeper reserves and oil sand develops, Canada and Australia will each be able to compete with Saudi Arabia, which reduces the need for America to go hostile in the middle east (which doesn't mean we'll refrain from doing it).

heres pretty good article on chinese engery needs

China Barrels Ahead in Oil Market
www.energybulletin.net...

Seems to me that China proposing a strike against Japan will be the same as China proposing a strike against the United States.

And then where will China be?

Dallas

The CCP is not that crazy, and it's not controlled by one man. Waging a war is a VERY big deal unless you're totally nuts and you just happen to be the only person with the ultimate say in your country's politics. Or if you're George W Bush.

Not being a one man dictatorship means there would be a huge debate within the CCP before something like this can be decided, and you can bet there would be plenty of officials smart enough to realise how utterly childish, stupid, and pointless such a war would be and get that point across.

Something like that is very unlikely to happen with China, let's be realistic here


[edit on 5-7-2005 by Taishyou]

this site is probaly the best site for any china watchers

China Brief
www.jamestown.org...

Originally posted by Dallas

Seems to me that China proposing a strike against Japan will be the same as China proposing a strike against the United States.

And then where will China be?

Dallas

this article is a fake. posted in some indian site with no other sources than what it wrote itself

That article is fake in the sense that china will NOT attack Japan if it goes nuclear.. or in the sense that the US will NOT aid Japan if it is attacked

[edit on 5-7-2005 by Daedalus3]

Originally posted by Daedalus3
That article is fake in the sense that china will NOT attack Japan if it goes nuclear.. or in the sense that the US will NOT aid Japan if it is attacked

[edit on 5-7-2005 by Daedalus3]

your first one

Originally posted by The Vagabond
I'm not too sure about Char2c35t's scenario- especially the worst case scenario at the bottom. Some of it seems a little random.

I agree fully with JamesinOz that oil prices are a likely flashpoint for the Pacific. Who attacks where? My feeling is that it's all eyes on Indonesia, and Japan isn't really even in the running, except where playing defense. Japan is going to have to work with America (and thus with Australia) to ensure its future oil flow by means other than conquest.

When oil goes through the roof, India and China each have two options. China can go into central Asia, step on Russia's toes a bit, and lock up a fair chunk of natural gas in the "Stans" and the Caspian Sea. They wouldn't hit Iran, they'd look to make Russia look weak and force Iran to export to China willingly.

India has roughly the same option but it is far less realistic because they have Pakistan in their way and aren't entirely in a position to mess with Russia, especially while competing with China.

The Second option, which makes a lot of sense for both of these nations, is Indonesia. Indonesia is exporting significantly more to the US and Japan than to China or India (they AREN'T exporting to India).
India could theoretically try the amphibious route, but only if they are confident that nobody is going to stop them. They can't risk the US cutting their supply lines. Otherwise they have to go overland, which is tougher and takes longer, but also takes the fight off of Indian soil if they come to blows with China. From there they can head down the Malay peninsula and make a couple of very small Island hops through Indonesia- assuming nobody tries to stop them- I suspect that China and or Australia (with American support) might.
China is in the same boat- they can go the land route, the long ocean route, or the REALLY long ocean route. the long ocean route leaves their supply lines unsecured against the US Navy. The REALLY long route makes stops in Taiwan and the Phillipines so that they can emplace aircraft to keep the US Navy hedged out of Indonesia. The problem here is that the battle lines are gong to extend all the way down to the Northern coast of Australia and really fighting to win would mean invading Australia- which carries a huge risk of this war getting out of hand.

Siberia may constitute a third option, but only if China honestly believes that Russia is a dying old man, unable to fight and afraid to use nukes. I don't see it happening at this point- unless there's something about the state and maintenance of Russia's nukes that I don't know.

Japan fits into all of this because they have to defend Indonesia (with help from Australia and the USA. They probably will try to to fight on the home front- unless China comes for them- because their position is relatively weak, strategically speaking. If they have to defend themselves against China, don't put t past the Japanese to plan on simply nuking an inbound invasion force and double-dog-daring China to retaliate. The thing about nuking inbound troops is that nobody can really say anything to you about it- they had it coming- and the enemy no longer has the means to take what it wants from you- so they can either call off the war or let MAD take its course..


This war is still pretty bloody unthinkable, but that doesn't mean that China and or India wouldn't take a shot at it.
My guess, believe it or not, is that the West may actually back down and go get their oil somewhere else- Indonesia is no Saudi Arabia. I figure we'd arm Australia to the teeth, especially with nukes, and tell the Chinese to enjoy their oil and don't screw with our friend.
Meanwhile, I suspect that Syria and Iran, and quite possibly a few nations on the Arabian Peninsula, including Saudi herself, had better stand by for a little ruckus
We also have to remember though that as the technology to deal with deeper reserves and oil sand develops, Canada and Australia will each be able to compete with Saudi Arabia, which reduces the need for America to go hostile in the middle east (which doesn't mean we'll refrain from doing it).

Vagabond,

I'm always impressed by the realistic perspective people who are serving or who've actually had military experience bring to this board

Yesterday the Aussie Defence Dept announced it was increasing its defence of our entire NW to two aluminium patrol boats...I'm not 100% certain they'll be sufficient to fend off several million PLA soldiers

I also believe there are massive oil and gas reserves in Canada and Australia yet to be discovered...we already have the worlds largest reserves of iron ore, vast amounts of uranium, and and a 14 year Chinese contract worth of natural gas down here...and they haven't even started serious exploration for oil yet in this part of the world.

I suspect the English speaking world may be self sufficient in energy one day, and we'll be able to politely leave the middle east to their own errr...devices...

cheers
James

Originally posted by JamesinOz

Yesterday the Aussie Defence Dept announced it was increasing its defence of our entire NW to two aluminium patrol boats...I'm not 100% certain they'll be sufficient to fend off several million PLA soldiers

I also believe there are massive oil and gas reserves in Canada and Australia yet to be discovered...we already have the worlds largest reserves of iron ore, vast amounts of uranium, and and a 14 year Chinese contract worth of natural gas down here...and they haven't even started serious exploration for oil yet in this part of the world.

lol arent those patrol boats used to chase off illegal fishing and asylum seekers?



i throught australia already had been explored for all the gas and oil?

Great post !
China is now flexing its money and with money comes might. However as I believe I have said further on, The US black project can be as far east as China in twenty minutes, and that's that. 10 or 20 million man armies mean nothing, well unless their coagulated then even less.

The US, in my opinion, are at least 30 years ahead in military technology that China or even Russia. And I'm not speculating on the front of fast Jet Aircraft or High technology Helocopters.

Dallas

Vagabond

maybe I should have made myself more clear, that list I made was for the list of events if china attacked Japan.

I dont see them going into the "stans" mainly because if anything Russia wants the stans back for her own needs. WOnder if that would cause a poland like treaty or open hostilities which china might as roll into siberia the same time.

I agree the SE asia will once agian be the hot spot with theoil rich sea mounds being there and 4 or more counties claiming them.

THe US needs to get off oil asap!

It's not that you didn't make yourself clear my friend, I just don't believe that America has any interest in staying in South Korea if things with China start to get messy.

If we have any advance warning at all of things going south with China, you're going to see something that looks a lot like appeasement- America will agree to leave the Korean peninsula. But not to appease anybody.

We can defend Japan quite capably in the air and on the sea. Bases in S. Korea are helpful for this, BUT they get us into a messy ground war- one in which we can not immediately secure our supply lines unless we already have sufficient aircraft and logistical support on hand. That's A LOT when you consider the sheer size of the Chinese airforce. We can't afford lose our reinforcements at the bottom of the Sea of Japan in the face of brute-force (nearly suicidal) Chinese attacks, and we can't prevent that unless we've got some massive airpower already in place with sufficient armament, fuel, and bases in Japan. So we may have to pull out of the Koreas. Basic Sun Tsu- like water flowing down a mountain. You roll around the enemy's hard points and "hit them where they aren't", which is the essence of manuever warfare, as Commandant Krulak's "Warfighting" said several times.

Besides that, if we're going to go 'round with China we're going to need a substantial amount of ground force to emplace in the areas that we are less able to defend by air and sea- so you're probably looking at American troops going to Central Asia, especially if India and or Russia are either on our side or at least willing to tollerate us, or else to Australia if we feel there is substantial danger of the Chinese taking it that far before we can shut them down.

As for Central Asia- China is going to need an open road to the middle east to pose a credible conventional threat if they intend to be a rival superpower to the United States. With the Russians, we couldn't go conventionally where ever we wanted, because the Russians would then go conventionally to Berlin or to the Middle East, forcing us into a nuclear war. If China can't project like that, their only card to play is to bluff with their nukes every time we do something small- it wouldn't work. With stakes like that, I think China would screw Russia. Especially considering that there isn't all that much for Russia to covet in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan is already out of Russia's hands. So the Chinese can go as far as they want as long as they stay out of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. They could pick up Turkmenistan later when they didn't have their hands full with America, and Russia wouldn't dare go at it conventionally, nor would Russia have enough motive to go nuclear. Then there is Iran to consider. Being the closest and strongest power to Iran is a huge thing- especially when a presence near there would give China the credibility to keep America out. In a lot of ways, a super power go-round in Central Asia is one of the most likely scenarios on the geo-strategic chessboard right now, because they are very important on the deeper levels, but on the surface seem quite unimportant- people who think their smart for realizing this may get themselves into wars by miscalculation, thinking the other side won't realize what they are up to.


James- thanks for the compliment.
I really think Australia would be wise to seriously ramp up their naval power. In their corner of the globe the possession of aircraft carriers and submarines can hardly be over-emphasized. They live in the only part of the world that has ever seen multiple significant carrier battles. Naval mobility is vitally important to holding an archipelago, air superiority is vital to naval mobility, and carriers are vital to maintaining air superiority near land which you do not have a presence on.

Vagaond.. you're forgetting the India conundrum in central asia..

Afghanistan may be in american hands now but the northern alliance still pledges alligence to Russia and India..

More so China has no "physical" military presence in Central ASia as of now..

Russia is there and India is opening up in that region..

India already has an AFB with fulcrums in southern TAjikistan(the region bordering north afghanistan, i.e. northern alliance)

Iran does not have any bias between India and China for the moment..
India has more pull in the Central Asia than China..

India Military academies have atleast 20-30 cadets (cream of their resp countries) from CAR (central asian republics) training in every course..
Of course all this under russian consent and guidance..

Both the US and Russia need China economically, which unfortunately can work out to their(US,Russia) disadvantage later on since china will benefit greatly from this symbiosis and grow; but keep in mind that both(US/Russia) are simultanoeusly propping up India as a counter weight in the region to balance out China.. Pakistan is like used tissue paper now.

As for australian oil reserves.. the region for contention is the Indian ocean which is "warmly" contested by the Indians as well..
Recently Australia protested Indian carrier ops off their western coast..
Yes India sends its naval forces that far down south too...

So its not all set in mold now.. everything's fluid.. the next decade or two will be very very interesting as they unfold..

Originally posted by The Vagabond
James- thanks for the compliment.
I really think Australia would be wise to seriously ramp up their naval power. In their corner of the globe the possession of aircraft carriers and submarines can hardly be over-emphasized. They live in the only part of the world that has ever seen multiple significant carrier battles. Naval mobility is vitally important to holding an archipelago, air superiority is vital to naval mobility, and carriers are vital to maintaining air superiority near land which you do not have a presence on.

Vagabond- you bet we need a bigger navy!

I'm no expert but I can see whats coming like a freight train with its lights flashing. I agree our government should buy a carrier- or two.

Historically, one of the big carrier battles down here in WW2 was when the U.S. Navy stopped Japan from invading Australia in the Battle of the Coral Sea. Things got so hairy at the time that Aussies were heading inland to escape the imminent invasion; it seems we have a short memory.

I think if oil hits $100 a barrel it will become very apparent that we will have to act quickly to secure our vulnerable resource rich areas. I actually believe we could fend off an attempted invasion to our North West, primarily via attacking vulnerable and overstretched supply lines, hopefully with a little help from the U.S. Navy (again).

I personally don't believe India will pose a major threat to Australia going forward, as I believe they may have their hands full in their own region, and will be forced to focus their military resources closer to home out of necessity.

cheers & thanks
James

China = all mouth and no balls!!!!!

China knows they could not take on the world (which is what they would be doin if they attack Japan).

If China attacks Japan or Taiwan they will fall, and they will fall hard.

Central Asian security group demands deadlines for Western bases to pull out


ASTANA, Kazakhstan (AFX) - The leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a six-nation security bloc, called for a deadline to be set on the pull-out of Western bases from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan and slammed outside interference in their affairs at a summit here today.

At the meeting in the Kazakh capital Astana, the SCO, which comprises Russia, China, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, signed a declaration that called for deadlines to be set on the presence of military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, set up in 2001 by the US-led coalition that toppled Afghanistan's Taliban leadership.
www.forbes.com...


ummm...interesting development...



anyhow which two countires are the closest to these oil fields?

and already oil pipelines running built.

Kazakhs plan China oil pipeline
news.bbc.co.uk...

China starts work on Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline
english.people.com.cn...

China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline to complete this year
en.ce.cn...&Mining/200506/29/t20050629_4088472.shtml

Originally posted by Identity_Unknown
China = all mouth and no balls!!!!!

China knows they could not take on the world (which is what they would be doin if they attack Japan).

If China attacks Japan or Taiwan they will fall, and they will fall hard.

yeah thats why your "allies" perfer china over US

www.japantoday.com...

China 'is more popular' than US
news.bbc.co.uk...

Originally posted by chinawhite

Originally posted by JamesinOz

Yesterday the Aussie Defence Dept announced it was increasing its defence of our entire NW to two aluminium patrol boats...I'm not 100% certain they'll be sufficient to fend off several million PLA soldiers

I also believe there are massive oil and gas reserves in Canada and Australia yet to be discovered...we already have the worlds largest reserves of iron ore, vast amounts of uranium, and and a 14 year Chinese contract worth of natural gas down here...and they haven't even started serious exploration for oil yet in this part of the world.

lol arent those patrol boats used to chase off illegal fishing and asylum seekers?



i throught australia already had been explored for all the gas and oil?

Chinawhite, yes, the patrol boats are indeed designed for that purpouse, however please add to your cable back to Beijing that they're equipped with nuclear tipped Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Re: oil and gas exploration in Australia; as I understand it, some exploration was done mainly in the 60's, and hey presto they quickly found enough oil to supply 80% of Australia's energy needs since that time (in Bass Straight and on Barrow Island).

Since the 60's, exploration has been uneconomical due to oil (up until now) being so cheap. As a result, no new fileds have come online, for economic reasons.

Obviously, exploration is now (apparently) beginning to ramp up again, and it seems that whenever they stick a drill rig into the ground or the sea they find some massive reserves of one mineral or another, particularly in the North West.

I strongly suspect that Australia possesses massive fields of both gas and oil; I think the latest oil discoveries have been off Australia's South West coast, with several oil rigs turning up in the sea off the coast there in recent years.

I'm not a minerals expert, so if I've made any factual errors someone please correct me; I want Chinawhites cable to be as accurate as possible, otherwise he'll end up in a detention camp #542 in far Western China and we won't be able to debate him here anymore.