reply to post by winofiend
Quite right winofiend (and eriktheawful).
This is in no way related to DA14. The orbit of DA14 is well known, and from the numerous videos of the Russian we also have a usable rough orbit for
this object. We know
that DA14 (and any related fragments which might be traveling with it) would not be able to hit that far north since
Russia is on the other side of the part of our Earth from where DA14 and related fragments would hit.
As has been said already, Earth is under constant bombardment from objects like this one, although this one was a little bigger than the objects we
usally see hitting the atmosphere.
This object was probably approaching the scale of the 1908 blast over Tunguska (perhaps not quite as big), and it has been estimated that objects of
this size/energy range can bn expected on average once in 50-100 years. So we have been overdue a hit from an object like this for a few years at
The fact it happened to come now is pure coincidence. If it had hit at the end of the year people would be saying that it was connected with comet
ISON. If had hit in a few weeks time people would say it was connected to some other NEO that happened to be pasing at the time. There are NEOs
passing us by all the time, and the vast majority do not hit, but every once in a while a relitively small one like this one does hit. Thankfully the
small ones don't do too much damage since our atmosphere usually takes most of the impact.
That seems to be the case here, with only relitively minor injuries being reported, caused by the shock wave from the object exploding at altitude.
It's not clear yet if any large fragments impacted the ground with great force, but it may not be the case here, although it is a possibility.
By the way, this does seem to have been a reltively small asteroid. Here is preliminary data from resercher Esko Lyytinen which puts the velocity at
around 17.3 km/s. Cometary fragments tend to have much higher velocities.
METEOROBS (The Meteor Observing List)
Using mainly the video:
and the weather satellite image, with no real good calibrations, I get a
rough solar system orbit ( the last stage by means of Marco Langbroek
( Entry with velocity 17 km/s ( 17.3) from about az. 97 with the slope
of 18 deg. Corresponding (luminous) start heigth (assumed, quite heigh
for the velocity, but considers very big size) 100 km and the end 7+ km.)
aphelion at 2.53 AU
node=326.43 ( J2000.0 )
43.6 days after perihelion
The geocentric radiant is 338, +2
This is only of very general quality and given with (a lot) too many
The orbit does not much resemble the 2009 Feb, 16 innish fireball that I
told of yesterday.
According to that solution, the landing site would be not much more than
30 km away from that video recording site. But I do not know the
coordinates of this, except very roughly.
There quite probably are a lot of small fragments fallen down much
earlier along the track, (with possibly a number of bigger ones,
besides the main piece).
Also of note is the extremely low end-point of the bolide (7km), suggesting nothing impacted the ground with huge force. It may well (as far as I'm
aware) be the lowest altitude for a bolide remaining luminmous that has ever been captured by camera!
I'd caution anyone researching this event to be on their guard for misinfo as events like this have a habbit of atracting hoaxers and people who think
they know what they are talking about, but don't.
Edit to add: Just one example of the misinmformation out there is that this event is being reffered to as being related to a meteor shower. That is
obnviously not the case here. This was a single object (that may have broken up on entry), unlike a meteor shower which what happens when Earth passes
through the debris trail of a comet (mostly dust sized particles).
PS. Sory for any typos - I'm away from home and on a PC that doesn't have a spell checker, plus the keybord I'm using has a new DIY cover on it that
quite often types multiple letters for every one key that I hit. Will try and fix that later!
edit on 15-2-2013 by FireballStorm because: (no