Hey, if the Papuans can't secure Port Moresby, how the hell are the Indos going to?

And the last time someone tried that invasion route we thumped them. We did it in 42/43, we can do it again. And we'd put some SAS guys into Papua to help stir up the West Papuans/Irian Jayans who don't want to be Indonesian and didn't take part in the "act of free choice".

True ..... the 42/43 invasion route was halted .... at great cost on the Kakoda Trail and on Guadal Canal. However, with an ill equiped PNG defence force (3000 total) any hope of holding Port Morsby in 2005 would be futile should even a small Indo Force invade and thats if they had time to prepare. A small combined Ampbious/Air assault on Morsby to secure the Airport and and port facilities prior to any official declaration of hostilities would not be out of the question. Also a couple small assault groups to secure and hold Lae, Rabual, Bougainville and Henderson Air Field on Guadal Canal could quite possibly give the Indos the initial upper hand.

Dont get me wrong ..... I aint on there side ...... I hate the little @#$%'s
And I dont believe they have the Military mussel or balls to atempt such an action. (Well I hope not) But, nothing these days is out of the realm of possibilities.

I cant see the US rushing to assist Aust and NZ in any event. They are fairly tightly commited as it is.One more war zone to commit to would certainly bring back the draft ...... and the citizens dont exactly back what there fighting now, so we'd certainly see some dramatic shift State side. Like Katrina and Wilma ..... we'd be expected to go it alone initially. I do believe however that the Poms would lend some form assistance. What? I dont know?

But this is just me.... thinking beyond the senario box on a grander scale.

What if ..... the Indos just made a concerted effort to cross the east Timorese Border and lets say major incursions along the Northern PNG coast along from Iran Jaya (ecucse spelling) No amount of air or naval asset are going to shift em. It'll be down to the RAR and RNZIR guys. And I have no doubt that it would be anything like what we saw in 1999-2002

Should the Indos obtain some kind of finacial, political and military backing from a couple of Nations to 'there' north then we'd be in some kind of strife. Sure, we'd eventually kick a bit of butt ..... but could you imagine the backlash should we be forced to re-fight the battle of Kakoda again? Or be resonsible for re-securing Guadal Canal without US Marines help this time?

Lot of good young blokes. I doubt both countries would tolerate 100's let alone 1000's of ANZAC casualties in 2005/2006

Scary thought ..... lets hope Helen the Destroyer reads history and buys a couple Sqd's of Harriers or Tornadoes to help fill the deterent swimming pool of Military hardware now available in Aust.

I like the responses to the prophecy Nice to see some debate starting

However I think this prophecy would be in context with a much wider war (WW3) being fought on many fronts. (read the site to see what I mean)

So would it be so easy to defeat a nation of 188 million + people if America and the western world were occupied elsewhere, and some / most of Australia's military were helping them? Or would Indonesia seeing a golden opportunity whilst another war is running be able to walk in and take over without people being able to stop them?



[edit on 31-10-2005 by Netchicken]

Originally posted by Netchicken
So would it be so easy to defeat a nation of 188 million + people if America and the western world were occupied elsewhere, and some / most of Australia's military were helping them? Or would Indonesia seeing a golden opportunity whilst another war is running be able to walk in and take over without people being able to stop them?

- I don't think they have the ability, equipment or desire Netchicken.

I also could easily see the UK coming to Austrailia's aid and Jakarta (Indonesia's capital) being told in no uncertain terms that if they did not desist and withdraw from any such attack immeadiately (and open negotiations on reparations due from such an unprovoked attack) then they could expect the UK to start warming-up Tridents until they saw sense.

I cannot see any circumstances in which the 'western world' would tolerate the 'fall' of Austrailia.
Kith and kin and all that.
If it were allowed to stand the economic repercussions alone would probably spark off a prolonged global slump.
IMO it ain't going to happen; ever.

Originally posted by sminkeypinkey

- I don't think they have the ability, equipment or desire Netchicken.

I also could easily see the UK coming to Austrailia's aid and Jakarta (Indonesia's capital) being told in no uncertain terms that if they did not desist and withdraw from any such attack immeadiately (and open negotiations on reparations due from such an unprovoked attack) then they could expect the UK to start warming-up Tridents until they saw sense.

I cannot see any circumstances in which the 'western world' would tolerate the 'fall' of Austrailia.
Kith and kin and all that.
If it were allowed to stand the economic repercussions alone would probably spark off a prolonged global slump.
IMO it ain't going to happen; ever.

I agree sminkeypinkey the USA,UK and others would assist in the defence of AUS if required.

Originally posted by The_Camel
True ..... the 42/43 invasion route was halted .... at great cost on the Kakoda Trail and on Guadal Canal. However, with an ill equiped PNG defence force (3000 total) any hope of holding Port Morsby in 2005 would be futile should even a small Indo Force invade and thats if they had time to prepare. A small combined Ampbious/Air assault on Morsby to secure the Airport and and port facilities prior to any official declaration of hostilities would not be out of the question. Also a couple small assault groups to secure and hold Lae, Rabual, Bougainville and Henderson Air Field on Guadal Canal could quite possibly give the Indos the initial upper hand.

The only dedicated offensive bombing force in the region belongs to us. Not too hard to take away their "upper hand". Not to mention our fighter force are, in fact, strike fighters...The purpose of the PNG defence force is for them to be used by roving bands of Australian troops in harrasment and surveillance. They are the perfect guides. Their job is not to stand and fight, just as the Papuan Infantry Batallion's job was not to stand and fight in '42.

I cant see the US rushing to assist Aust and NZ in any event. They are fairly tightly commited as it is.One more war zone to commit to would certainly bring back the draft ...... and the citizens dont exactly back what there fighting now, so we'd certainly see some dramatic shift State side. Like Katrina and Wilma ..... we'd be expected to go it alone initially. I do believe however that the Poms would lend some form assistance. What? I dont know?

I can. Johnny activated ANZUS on Sep 11 without being asked and we went into Afghanistan with them and then Iraq, payback's a bitch, especially when it's your friends. GW was particularly pleased with Oz' leadership of INTERRFET and said more international missions should be run that way, not reliant on US boots on the ground. I assume Tony would help, but then we offered no help in '82, none of the Commonwealth did, only NZ.

What if ..... the Indos just made a concerted effort to cross the east Timorese Border and lets say major incursions along the Northern PNG coast along from Iran Jaya (ecucse spelling) No amount of air or naval asset are going to shift em. It'll be down to the RAR and RNZIR guys. And I have no doubt that it would be anything like what we saw in 1999-2002

Of course it wouldn't. That was a bunch of militia dickheads playing with fire and Indo troops waiting to go home...

Should the Indos obtain some kind of finacial, political and military backing from a couple of Nations to 'there' north then we'd be in some kind of strife. Sure, we'd eventually kick a bit of butt ..... but could you imagine the backlash should we be forced to re-fight the battle of Kakoda again? Or be resonsible for re-securing Guadal Canal without US Marines help this time?

There is only one Muslim nation to their north. And in the last century we bled three times to keep it out of the hands of others, one of those times was against the Indos. Now that the recalcitrant dwarf Mahatir is gone, Malaysia has returned to remembering who her friends are and where her debts lie. There is no way one member of the Commonwealth would support the invasion of another by a third party.

What has Guadalcanal got to do with it, that was the USMC and it's in the Solomons, where there are Diggers right now. As I said, if the Papuans can't secure their own country, how the hell are the Indos going to? And if the Solomon Islanders can't secure their own country, how the hell are the Indos going to?

Lot of good young blokes. I doubt both countries would tolerate 100's let alone 1000's of ANZAC casualties in 2005/2006

In the defence of Australia Australians will tolerate millions of deaths. There's something about living in a free country that we all enjoy. On the day after the attack the Defence force would reach its recruitment intake for the next century.

Scary thought ..... lets hope Helen the Destroyer reads history and buys a couple Sqd's of Harriers or Tornadoes to help fill the deterent swimming pool of Military hardware now available in Aust.

There are no new-build Tornadoes available and there are no 2nd-hand Tornadoes available. Plus she sold the Skyhawks because of their age and cost. How much would 2 squadrons of Tornadoes cost and how old are the newest Harriers? Not to mention that only the Sea Harrier has radar, RAF Harriers are ground-attack only, not fighters.

Hawks would be a far better choice. We have them, too.

Fighters would be handy if NZ had to fight a war away from it's shores.
But it's such a small country, couldn't a couple of frigates or destroyers sit offshore and do the job of guarding it's airspace?

As somebody here said: it's 2 and a half hours to the next country. If a plane was hijacked in a foreign airport, the Navy would have ample time to move it's ships within range. If the hijacking takes place in NZ airspace, a fighter wing is going to be useless anyway - there is no way that they could scramble and intercept in time. The only way you can take something out in such a short time is with a SAM.

OK. Good call on a couple of points.

1st. Yes the US/UK/CAN and others would assist AUST/NZ if the chips were down. However I was looking beyond the idea of Indonesia going it alone and attempting to secure Australia's North West flank before making a two pronged thrust through the NT and along the Solomons into the Pacific.

It isnt going to happen !!! ..... unless they are supported by Nations to there North. I wasnt just considering Malaysia because its Muslim. I was looking at the possibility that either A. China throw there chips on the table with the Indos, or B. Indonesia, China and others are able to form an Asian style Block (which is a possibility) and have a crack at the Southern lands.

With all the crap happening around the globe I just dont believe many countries will in the near future have the ability to undertake an AUST/NZ 'rescue' mission should we get in the poo.

I got to do a few hikes along the Timor border around 2000 and 2001/2002 ...... and yeah the Militia (more like cattle rustlers) were around. But one should never pass judgement or underestimate an enemy, real or supposed ..... until you have soundly beaten him and you occupy his lands and own the b******ds soul.

But the Indos were across the border and werent overly committed or involved, so how can you imply they are a rag tag bunch of hippies untill you take them on ..... (and win) Sure they were around for the first few days until they were all trucked back to Indo ..... and Im sure the Cow-passa M%$#@ F@#$%ers gave a couple lectures and some advice to the Militia from time to time.

But first rule of war ..... or peace. Never underestimate your foe. Compacincey (excuse the spelling) is the greatest enemy.

Iraq is a good example why you should know the En. Yeah ..... using mech/armour/air assets like the yanks did was dramatic to say the least.

However 30 months later is obvious the CF dont know the EN that well....... no amount of high tech toys are going to stop or impede the fighters there right now. If you've driven up behind a VBIED along the BIAP road, or had a couple IED's envelope your vehical with heat dirt and smoke and noise, you'll realise that it doesnt matter how many toys you have .... theres always going to be another kid in the sand box with you who's very capable of destoying your toys.

On the point of NZ supporting the Brits in 82. Muldoon (PM) was upset as he offered a couple skyhawks first ..... then an Infantry Battalion .... and then he offered 2 Frigates (Waikato and Taranaki I think) and the offer was declined every time. He would have made a great war time leader today. Hard B@#$%$#D

Final point .... yeah the Hawk seems good enough .... I'll concede on Harriers and Tornadoes. I'd dont care, just as long as NZ get something.

As for Frigates and corvettes ..... yeah more is good. The bigger and wider the screen that a country can put up the better.

Ask the jarheads who had to fight their way from Tarawa to Okinawa. A lot them went home (also a lot didn't go home) with Kiwi wives. NZ was a major staging base for Pacific operations, just as Oz was.

From Auckland you can control the Pacific to Hawaii and Easter Island and the Southern Ocean all the way to Antarctica. You can harras and hit the Phillipines, New Guinea, Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, New Caledonia, the Solomons...

It also gives you the best staging ground to hit Oz. First world infrastructure that doesn't exist in other places.

Sure, every nation in SEAsia has one international airport, but some of them (Vientiane) are awfully small. Still, Singapore (Changi), Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta are pretty good but Singapore doesn't give you dispersal and Jakarta is too close to the RAAF for real comfort.

Ok, and that's based on the logic of the second world war. They still have to get there, and I see no-one with a Navy which has that capacity. Sure, New Zealand may be relevant in the case of WW3, but in that case we're all doomed anyway.