RUSSIA: Attack on Tehran is an Attack on Moscow

Originally posted by thepixelpusher
reply to post by blackmirage0311

 

That's what they ask us to believe. I understand the skepticism too. But, you'd have us believe our military might is airtight. I wish that were the case.

edit on 20-1-2012 by thepixelpusher because: (no reason given)

Nothing is going to work perfect in a WAR scenario...but as I have said...and if any of you have been watching the news lately...China has washed it'd hands of the Iran issue as has Russia to an extent.

Iran is just spouting a bunch of threats because it's leadership is trying to scare up the idea of war because they are very worried about on coming sanctions. This whole thing will end with a whimper. Split Infinity

Quite the contrary. I think you're missing the very active "economic strategy" that Russia and China are taking against the US/UK. Economics will trump military anyday. Our military muscle means nothing if a group of powerful countries can marginalize the dollar and the free oil we've been getting by having oil traded worldwide in the dollar. We print fiat money out of thin air and use it to buy oil for nothing. That has all been changing slowly over the last 2 years with countries, and has the US/UK top tier banking powers very worried. It is likely the motivation for the chaos being cultivated in the middle east so that these countries are controlled and forced to continue to use the dollar for oil trade.

Having Russia, China, India, Japan, Venezuela, Turkey, and Iran, switch to alternate currencies for oil trade is a seismic loss for the US/UK top tier banks. In fact this could cause the price of oil in the US/UK to skyrocket in time. But more importantly it will serve to collapse the US/UK economy if this move away from the US Dollar in oil trade continues. We'd be left with a wreaked economy and no way to continue to fund our wars. Russia and China know this.

A whole series of bilateral agreements that quietly seeks to remove the US currency as an intermediate. Such as these: "World's Second (China) And Third Largest (Japan) Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade", "China, Russia Drop Dollar In Bilateral Trade", "China And Iran To Bypass Dollar, Plan Oil Barter System", "India and Japan sign new $15bn currency swap agreement", and now this: "Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says."" Today we add the latest country to join the Asian dollar exclusion zone: "India and Iran have agreed to settle some of their $12 billion annual oil trade in rupees, a government source said on Friday, resorting to the restricted currency after more than a year of payment problems in the face of fresh, tougher U.S. sanctions." To summarize: Japan, China, Russia, India and Iran: the countries which together account for the bulk of the world's productivity and combined are among the biggest explorers and producers of energy.

LINK - India Joins Asian Dollar Exclusion Zone, Will Transact with Iran In Rupees

reply to post by thepixelpusher

The US is directly responsible for pushing these countries away from the US$. If nothing else the recently announced sanctions against Central Banks that deal with Iran would do the trick.

It is not as much the initiative by the others to dump the US$ as a trading currency, but actions by the US government to push them to do it. So why is the US government forcing others to dump the US$?

reply to post by Observor
Just like Roosevelt and the U$ Government more or less forced Japan into ww-2 by cutting off her access to oil,90% of which japan was importing at the time and so the only way Japan could get oil and survive as a modern country was to expand outwards into the South Pacific to get it...

Wars dont happen,they are created...

reply to post by blocula

I know that but I doubt the analogy would apply, since unlike Japan attacking the US Pacific Fleet, although being being goaded into it, Iran trading in non-US$ currencies cannot be used as the official excuse for an invasion.

Iraq, in 2003, was already trading in Euros, but that was never the official excuse for the invasion. Forcing Iran into stopping using the US$ and then inventing another excuse for invasion sounds totally silly.

I think the whole scenario is being used to do something totally out of any media reports, creating a world trading currency not tied to any national currency. Of course, it must appear to be a solution to a problem. So the problem must first be created. The sanctions were not meant for strangling Iran's trade, but to kill the US$. All the US$ held by countries like Japan, China, Russia and India will be dumped suddenly resulting in a huge devaluation of the US$ against those national currencies, which will create a panic everywhere, with many trade surplus countries like the OPEC nations too looking to convert their US$ holdings into some currency that is likey to hold value in the shortterm, probably the Yuan or the Rouble. But there will be demands everyhwere for a trading and reserve currency whose volume is linked to international commerce and not the GNP of any country or region, lending it a greater stability.

I think the whole Iran-US stand off is intended to create the scenario necessary to bring it about.

reply to post by Observor
What if the usa was getting all its oil from mexico and mexico decided to cut off the flow of oil into the usa,denied the usa from being able to get any oil.What would the usa do then? Invade mexico, thats what...Imo.

reply to post by blocula

Are you referring to Japan's attack on US Pacific Fleet? Yes, I know that. I know it was the US oil embargo on Japan, which forced Japan into a war against the US. But that attack was official reason for the US to go to war with Japan. US wanted to enter the war, but wanted to pretend they were forced into it.

Iran dumping US$ cannot be the official reason for US attacking Iran. Nor will Iran attack US in response to the economic sanctions, Iran doesn't have the capability or justification for it. The sanctions will have little effect. Their trade continues in non-US$ currencies.

That is why I said the Japan oil embargo analogy doesn't apply.

reply to post by Observor

I just wanted to add that the huge amounts of US$ the Fed recently "loaned" European banks will also come quite handy in crashing the US$ when it is dumped onto the currency markets along with those held by China, Russia, Japan and India.

Russia's own Government is in trouble...They have the same issues going on we do. Both regimes fear the will of the people will remove them from power. That being said I think all parties involved would love to make some money from WAR. Think about it. Wouldn't a GRAND Nuclear exchange bring on all of what TPTB want. Smaller population, easier governing and a single world power. Couldn't this be what they all want. Couldn't this be what it's really all about anyway. THINK ABOUT IT!!!

added content ::
wha t russia really fears

Originally posted by Observor
reply to post by blocula

 

I know that but I doubt the analogy would apply, since unlike Japan attacking the US Pacific Fleet, although being being goaded into it, Iran trading in non-US$ currencies cannot be used as the official excuse for an invasion.

Iraq, in 2003, was already trading in Euros, but that was never the official excuse for the invasion. Forcing Iran into stopping using the US$ and then inventing another excuse for invasion sounds totally silly.

I think the whole Iran-US stand off is intended to create the scenario necessary to bring it about.

edit on 21-1-2012 by Observor because: (no reason given)

However, Iran having a nuke will force Turkey to get the same. Down the road these two nations can cause some Islamic fanatic type trouble in Russia's southern regions. Turkey is a natural enemy of Russia in Europe. With nukes at hand, it might be difficult to threat these two with conventional spanking. Turkey more so as it is part of NATO.

So the ideal scenario would be Iran without nukes. But would that be possible without invasion by US. However, US invasion can change the power in Iran and new government being a US puppet will be opposite to Russia anyways and will go about the business of creating trouble in Russia's south. Russia should therefore try to maintain the current friendly regime in Iran and even if that requires crucial support in weapons etc. if the invasion takes place.

Originally posted by rebellender
Russia's own Government is in trouble...They have the same issues going on we do. Both regimes fear the will of the people will remove them from power. That being said I think all parties involved would love to make some money from WAR. Think about it. Wouldn't a GRAND Nuclear exchange bring on all of what TPTB want. Smaller population, easier governing and a single world power. Couldn't this be what they all want. Couldn't this be what it's really all about anyway. THINK ABOUT IT!!!

added content ::
wha t russia really fears

edit on 21-1-2012 by rebellender because: (no reason given)

Russia had experimented with genuine democracy in the 1990s. Result was half the country vanished after being looted by the 'new freedom' of the opportunists/gangsters/ foreigners etc. Russia nearly collapsed as a result. This bastard Prabhakov was became a billionaire when only 28 after buying a Nickel firm owned by state for dime on a dollar, is now moving to further weaken the Russian state.

There is rumour that lots of talking has erupted in western media about attack on Russia by US-NATO. Timeline is 2012 to 2015. Plan is to divide RF into three parts: European Russia goes to EU, Siberia and oil rich to US, and eastern remote left overs to China. Including China in this robbery is an attempt to 'divide and rule' whatever good terms Russia has with China today. China would be foolish to be part of such arrangement with US owning Siberia next door to look down its throat.

End of it all, if Russian people are soooooooo foolish as to commit the mistake of 1990s again, then they can go ahead and choose a traitor like Yeltsin and suffer again.

Originally posted by SheopleNation

Originally posted by kykweer
Why would you be so naïve to think that america is israels ally out of the good of their hearts? They are sucking it up because well...they have no other choice.

Why would you assume that I believe that America is Israel's ally out of the goodness of their hearts is a better question? Don't make assumptions when you never even bothered to ask for an opinion.

~SheopleNation

Then why post a message when ur going to say nothing at all?

Originally posted by victor7
However, Iran having a nuke will force Turkey to get the same. Down the road these two nations can cause some Islamic fanatic type trouble in Russia's southern regions. Turkey is a natural enemy of Russia in Europe. With nukes at hand, it might be difficult to threat these two with conventional spanking. Turkey more so as it is part of NATO.

I am sorry for saying this, but your analysis of what could happen sounds too much like what paranoid Americans think.

First off Turkey and Iran are past empires, there is no imperial future for them, at least not in the next 100 years anyway. Whether they have nukes and missiles will be the least of Russia's worries, from a national defence point of view. Russia can squat them like bugs in the event of any aggression against Russia, nukes or no nukes. All the Islamic solidarity talk is a reaction to Western aggression. In fact, if the West stops interfering in the Middle East, Islam as a unified ideology will vanish except probably the Taliban kind. But that is hardly any threat to anyone except those countries themselves. A unified Arab state/federation is a possibility, but not a pan-Islamic state/federation. Arabs will never submit to a Turkish or Persian leadership, there is too much bad blood for that to happen. Neither Turkey nor Iran will submit itself to the leadership by the other or Arabs, both are too proud and nationalistic to let that happen.

So, for all of the conceivable future that region will not be a military threat to anyone, least of all Russia. As long as the states are stable and not likely to collapse into chaos, there is no threat to anyone else from any of them attempting acquire nukes to feel secure against theeats to their own security. But even that discussion is academic, because of the NPT and the risks involved in attempting to acquire nukes clandestinely, which I doubt either Iran or Turkey will take.

So the ideal scenario would be Iran without nukes. But would that be possible without invasion by US.

What you call ideal, is the scenario we have today and the US hasn't invaded Iran.

However, US invasion can change the power in Iran and new government being a US puppet will be opposite to Russia anyways and will go about the business of creating trouble in Russia's south. Russia should therefore try to maintain the current friendly regime in Iran and even if that requires crucial support in weapons etc. if the invasion takes place.

If the US gets away with invading or bombing Iran, you can bet their invading Russia to get Russian oil fields is very much on their roadmap. It is the proven expansionist monster that is desperate to control the whole world that Russia should be worried about, not imagined future powers with little probability of coming into existence.

However, I don't think there will be a Western (non-Israeli) attack on Iran. All the sabre-rattling on both sides is meant for either ushering in a new currency regime that I mentioned earlier or to trap Israel into attacking Iran. Perhaps both. The last time, in 2004-5, there was this level of rhetoric against Iran, Israel even set a deadline for action against Iran failing which Israel will be forced to act. Nothing happened. Israel didn't act on the threats because it realised it was a trap being set for Israel, just like Iraq was trapped into invading Kuwait. Israel has outlived its geopolitical usefulness to the West and is too expensive to maintain. But dumping Israel needs a strong enough excuse and they are waiting for Israel to provide it. Israel's actions in the occupied territories short of genocide cannot provide it. However Israel launching a first strike on a UN member will clinch the deal. Once Israel is contained through UN sanctions and probably disarmed like Iraq and a Palestinian state is established, the public opinion in the Muslim world would change dramatically and West would be considered heroes. Anti-Western Islamic regimes will fall completely out of favour in the Middle East. The geopolitical advantages, today, of dumping Israel are so great that it is only a matter of when and not if. But the Israelis are wise to this game and that is the reason for Israel downplaying any threat to Israel's security from Iran even if Iran were to go nuclear. What the West is betting on by the shrill rhetoric is to create paranoia in the Israeli public and make an Israeli action impossible to avoid, due to public pressure, when the West suddenly cools its rhetoric and start acting as if nothing happened.

Originally posted by victor7
There is rumour that lots of talking has erupted in western media about attack on Russia by US-NATO. Timeline is 2012 to 2015.

Should the West successfully bomb/invade Iran, you can bet that is exactly what will happen. So should the West invade/bomb Iran, Russia likely will launch a pre-emptive attack on the US to dissuade them from attempting it.

Plan is to divide RF into three parts: European Russia goes to EU, Siberia and oil rich to US, and eastern remote left overs to China.

Sounds exactly like what I too think they would to.

Including China in this robbery is an attempt to 'divide and rule' whatever good terms Russia has with China today. China would be foolish to be part of such arrangement with US owning Siberia next door to look down its throat.

Frankly, China would have little choice, much like Russia and China had little choice when Iraq was invaded. China is not going to be a target for direct Western aggression in the foreseeable future, there is nothing there that interests the West that the Chinese won't willingly provide. China is already living with Western presence in Taiwan, Afghanistan and Pakistan, one more doesn't seriously affect their national defence. Taking areas offered by them is hardly different from China getting the bulk of the Iraqi oil contracts after an invasion and occupation they were opposed to.

If the bribes of Russian territory are meant to make China change its stand before any such invasion is planned, it won't work. If they are meant to placate China after the invasion, China will have no problem with it.

If China believes there is sufficient chance of destroying the West acting in tandem with Russia and if Russia takes the initiative well before the West attempts to attack Russia, China will join Russia's side. But if China doesn't see any possibility of stopping the West or Russia hesitates too long, China will not join Russia against the West.

Russia won't be attacked before Iran is. So within a few weeks of Iran getting bombed/invaded, we will know where China stands depending on how Russia acts.

End of it all, if Russian people are soooooooo foolish as to commit the mistake of 1990s again, then they can go ahead and choose a traitor like Yeltsin and suffer again.

Vladimir Vladimirovich will be the democratically elected President for next 8 years and he will then be succeeded probably by Dmitri Anatolyevich again. I doubt you want to call either of them traitors.

Originally posted by Observor
reply to post by thepixelpusher

 

The US is directly responsible for pushing these countries away from the US$. If nothing else the recently announced sanctions against Central Banks that deal with Iran would do the trick.

It is not as much the initiative by the others to dump the US$ as a trading currency, but actions by the US government to push them to do it. So why is the US government forcing others to dump the US$?

Our military actions may be a desperate attempt to regain loses in the use of the USDollar that were already taking place. Iraq was going to be trading oil in other currencies before we went in. Now, Iraq, and other countries are doing this for real and I think this will kick up a lot of proxy wars or maybe direct confrontations between US/UK and China/Russia. Just a guess from me.

Originally posted by thepixelpusher
Our military actions may be a desperate attempt to regain loses in the use of the USDollar that were already taking place.

You would be right if the military action came without economic sanctions. The economic sanctions announced can only aggravate the situation, not help it. That the sanctions had to be US/Europe initiative without a UN mandate means Iran and those trading with Iran are being asked to move awat from US$ and Euro, not stop trading with Iran. That can only weaken the US$ and Euro.

Iraq was going to be trading oil in other currencies before we went in. Now, Iraq, and other countries are doing this for real and I think this will kick up a lot of proxy wars or maybe direct confrontations between US/UK and China/Russia. Just a guess from me.

Iraq already switched to selling oil for Euros months before the invasion. not merely considering it. Some analysts claim that was the reason for the invasion. The decision of the occupation government to swicth back to US$ lends some credence to it. But I don't buy it. If there was a currency aspect to the invasion, it was not to stop others from using the Euro, but to popularise the Euro as a trading and reserve currency. That is exactly what happened after the invasion too.

The Bush administration put a lot of pressure on China to let the Yuan rise against the US$. China refused. Allowing the US$ to fall in value is suicidal for China or anyone else holding US$ denominated assets, because it means a depreciation of their savings. But at the same time there is a different problem for creditor nations like China, accumulating more and more savings in the form of US$ and Euro only increases the risk that these will lose value in future. Unless international trade is freed from the trade surplus being required to be invested in one country or region, the current export-oriented model of global economy will not work. It is necessary to invent a global trading and reserve currency not linked to any national currency and for that to happen it has to appear that the existing mechanism is inadequate.

Of course, all that is under the assumption that the Western elite do not represent the interests of the Western population at large. If I am wrong and they are actually interested in propping up the Western economies by propping up the currencies, they may be trying to do that, but in the most bizarre and foolish manner possible. Yes, if they are that stupid as to force others into dumping their currencies in order to make them use them, they might wage war against Russia and China for the same. But it is extremely difficult for me to predict the thinking patterns of stupid people, so I won't go there

reply to post by Observor


There is also an agreement within military circles that any attack on Iran would require air war to the grand scale of 1991 Desert Storm so Israel cannot do it alone and would require US-NATO help. The costs are going to be too high in terms of military and economics as a result of oil prices going above $200/barrel.

However, both Iran and Turkey are to become major regional players. Iran on Shia side and Turkey on Sunni. Iran's better chances are to no provoke hostilities with Russia as it is already on the hit list of US and NATO. Russia can also hope to use Iran's all year warm ports for its economics and commerce as Russia lacks such facilities on its Northern Side.

Do not think US is ready to abandon Israel. However, US might ask them to start to learn to live with nuclear armed Iran and offer all sorts of technological and military support as protection.

China has always been a very selfish and cunning player from the 1950s. However, predictions are for Chinese economy to crash or go into long recession due to the fake internal mechanism and reliance on export orders from the US and others. Everyone is looking towards US crash but it is the Chinese economy which might crash harder and longer like Japan. In last 20 years, Japanese economy has not reached a net growth in GDP terms. Also militarily, China is not as strong and Russia's ally India can keep them really busy and bleeding from South, in case China decides to join US-NATO and fight Russia to grab any land and resources.

Russia needs to develop and even enforce better terms from Ukraine and central Europe to create a buffer just like Soviet Union had. All this should ofcourse be based on mutual economic benefits and not the aid and help from one side only as was the case with Soviet terms. Financing central europe was one of the main reasons Soviets got bankrupt and overextended in resources.

Originally posted by victor7
There is also an agreement within military circles that any attack on Iran would require air war to the grand scale of 1991 Desert Storm so Israel cannot do it alone and would require US-NATO help. The costs are going to be too high in terms of military and economics as a result of oil prices going above $200/barrel.

It depends on what the objective is. Israel's objectives will be limited to striking cites of military interest, which itself will not be a very involved or expensive, in terms of military hardware, regardless of who does it US/NATO or Israel.

The West, if it attacks, is likely to have a much larger objective, of bringing Iranian oil and gas under Western control and possibly destroying the rest of the country. That would require occupation and would be the most expensive operation in all terms in a very long time. The possibility of that happening are very slim.

However, both Iran and Turkey are to become major regional players. Iran on Shia side and Turkey on Sunni.

Not sure what you mean by "players". If you mean intermediary in a dialogue, yes. If you mean someone who can influence, no. In order to influence others' decisions one must be either trusted or have power. Turkey and Iran have neither over other countries in the region.

The West would surely like to see Turkey become a trusted player in the region, as Samuel Huntington wished/predicted in his "Clash of Civilisations and the Remaking of World Order". But that is not going to happen. Also Arabs, Shia or not, are not likely to start implicitly trusting Persians.

Iran's better chances are to no provoke hostilities with Russia as it is already on the hit list of US and NATO.

I can't respond to paranoid scenarios which have no basis in reality. Why would Iran provoke hostilities with Russia? What possible motive could Iran have for anyone to even make threats like that?

Russia can also hope to use Iran's all year warm ports for its economics and commerce as Russia lacks such facilities on its Northern Side.

I am sure there are a lot of mutually beneficial arrangements that Iran and Russia can work out.

Do not think US is ready to abandon Israel. However, US might ask them to start to learn to live with nuclear armed Iran and offer all sorts of technological and military support as protection.

What continued use do you think Israel has for the US/West. Or are you one of those who think Israel controls the US or that the West has suddenly overcome with guilt after WWII for failing to rescue the Jews from the Nazis and they take it upon themselves to protect Israel whatever the cost to themselves?

China has always been a very selfish and cunning player from the 1950s.

China is above all pragmatic. Yeah, they are selfish in the sense of not making any sacrifices for others, but then no one made sacrifices for them either. So they take care of themselves in the way they best can without expecting anyone else to help them in the matter and don't offer free assistance to others either. Also they hardly ever think shortterm. They think in terms of generations and not years. Almost no other nation thinks like they do. So realistically speaking don't expect China to care about anything but what is good for China over the course of next 2 or 3 generations.

However, predictions are for Chinese economy to crash or go into long recession due to the fake internal mechanism and reliance on export orders from the US and others. Everyone is looking towards US crash but it is the Chinese economy which might crash harder and longer like Japan. In last 20 years, Japanese economy has not reached a net growth in GDP terms.

As I said China thinks very longterm. Currently China is simply accumulating savings in foreign currency by concentrating on exports. As long as they can protect the value of their savings a loss of further export revenue isn't going to hurt China much. China hasn't even scratched the surface of domestic consumption. So no fears. The entire Western economies can go into the dustbin without China flinching, as long as China can ensure energy imports without interruption.

Contd...

reply to post by Observor

...Contd

Also militarily, China is not as strong and Russia's ally India can keep them really busy and bleeding from South, in case China decides to join US-NATO and fight Russia to grab any land and resources.

There is absolutely no possibility of China allying with the West against anyone let alone Russia. If China doesn't trust Russia and India which are much closer both historically and geographically why would you think they would trust the West with whom they had direct and most unpleasant experiences? Chinese neither forget nor forgive easily.

They would never support a Western aggression against Russia or even take advantage of it. But whether they would partake in the spoils after the West attacks, occupies and carves up is an entirely different matter. Such "benefits" will not influence China's decision to support or oppose such actions.

Russia needs to develop and even enforce better terms from Ukraine and central Europe to create a buffer just like Soviet Union had. All this should ofcourse be based on mutual economic benefits and not the aid and help from one side only as was the case with Soviet terms. Financing central europe was one of the main reasons Soviets got bankrupt and overextended in resources.

You are right about what Central Europe cost the USSR, but such an arrangement cannot be created again. What possible benefits can the Central European states see for allying with Russia against the West? Russia cannot guarrantee their security and can only increase the risk of an attack from the West because of that alliance.

Ukraine is likely to return to the Russian ambit, but only as an ally like China or India, not someone who will cast her lot inevitably with Russia.

In a world dominated by the West the only security any nation has is that it can annihilate them or has little that the West covets. Russia has a lot that the West covets today, oil and gas. But is secure for the moment because she has the capability to annihilate them. Unless she also demonstrates a willingness to do that, she is toast. Instead of waiting for the West to pick the date of confrontation that suits them, Russia should pick a date that suits her. Unfortunate, but there is no alternative to survival.

ETA: Regarding Japan's economic stangation in the past two decades, that was deliberate. All leading economies knew of the impending energy crisis as far back as the '70s. By the '90s it was confirmed. So everyone had to prepare for it, since all economic growth is dependent on consumption of energy. The methods chosen were different. The USSR/Russian elite decided to disband, let the economies collapse totally and recover to a more sustainable level. The Western elite chose to maintain the fiction of unlimited economic growth until it became no longer possible to do so and in the interim concentrate wealth into the hands of the elite. The Japanese elite chose to let the economy stagnate and perhaps slowly reduce to a more sustainable level once the crisis hits.

As best as i can tell,if any two countries are going to ignite ww-3,its going to be pakistan and india,who border eachother,who basically hate eachother and they both have nuclear weapons...