Quake Watch 2012

Magnitude Mw 5.7
Region TAJIKISTAN
Date time 2012-05-12 23:28:42.0 UTC
Location 38.65 N ; 70.42 E
Depth 4 km
Distances 311 km S Tashkent (pop 1,978,028 ; local time 04:28:42.8 2012-05-13)
143 km E Dushanbe (pop 543,107 ; local time 04:28:42.8 2012-05-13)
43 km S Garm (pop 10,771 ; local time 04:28:42.8 2012-05-13)


Source parameters reviewed by a seismologist

EMSC

rainbows
Jane

reply to post by PuterMan


yes. figured that out.

thanks.

reply to post by angelchemuel


usgs the same with ± 0.03 magnitude uncertainty

however

F-E Region: Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border Region
Time: 2012-05-12 23:28:44.7 UTC
Magnitude: 6.0
Epicenter: 70.48°E 38.69°N
Depth: 10 km
Status: A - automatic

geofon.gfz-potsdam.de...

off LDEO today

2012/05/10 02:13:52, -29.5, -112.5, 6.0, EASTER ISLAND REGION dropped to 5.9 then back to 6.0

Everyone is having trouble with that one

thanks for the post it was very intresting i just would like to know if the west coast is in for it and soon great work !!!

Doesn't appear that anyone has posted the latest update from spaceweather.com:

INCOMING CME (UPDATED): On May 11th at 23:54 UT, a coronal mass ejection raced away from the sun faster than 1000 km/s. The fast-moving cloud will deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on May 14th around 14:30 UT, according to a revised forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab. Mars is also in the line of fire.

Now given the this 'glancing' blow is to arrive right on my 14th of May major quake prediction date, I made a month ago, I think it helps increase my chances of nailing this one!

Looks like Mars gets hit head-on so I hope there's some monitoring done during the next few days, to see if there's any effect. CME Path

Mind you it doesn't pay to get over-confident with my predictions, as I've always got PuterMan ready to pounce if I get it wrong!

I don't know about this glancing blow business.

A lot of sources are saying it was a full halo direct-hit.

Time will tell. I think it's about time to pop on the quake shades in any case.

A bit too quiet for too long once again.

Originally posted by murkraz
I don't know about this glancing blow business.

A lot of sources are saying it was a full halo direct-hit.

Time will tell. I think it's about time to pop on the quake shades in any case.

A bit too quiet for too long once again.

Well I guess it depends whether we can BELIEVE the animated graphic that I linked to in my previous post?

But yes, since April 13th earthquake activity has been very low, especially during the first 11 days of May, but definitely starting to uptick in the last couple of days.

The next 7 days up to the 20th should be very interesting, unless my 'planetary' theories are totally wrong!

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


First 12 days of May since it is the 13th today



Statistically of course there is ~100% chance of there being a major quake (6+) in the next three days so if it happens, as it will, is that statistics or planets?

Puterman, my current thoughts!

I see one of two scenarios.

1. The Japan quake that moved Japan was a major release of the energy contained in the rotational moment of the Pacific and expended that vast energy. Quakes on the circle since then have been due to the plate re-establishing a balance.

2. The rotational energy was transferred to the Philippine Sea plate (Causing Earthquakes and from there was transferred to the Indian Plate and the Indian Ocean plate. (Causing more quakes, the ones listed as Indonesia) The energy transferred to the Indian Ocean plate added a rotational moment which was transferred to the bottom of this plate causing the quakes between Tasmania and Antarctica. This would mean that the force has gone full circle. ie the rotational energy is now hitting the SW sector of the ring of fire.

Now we have full compression! I think we have about a week or two for the release. Will the alignment on May 20 cause a quake ..... No! Silly idea. Could it trigger this release when all indications tell me it is time anyway. Hell yes!

I hope Scenario 1 is the one that is fact. I don't think it is. The other quakes we have seen since Japan are largely in the right spots to support the idea of rotational compression and release.

P

reply to post by pheonix358


Have to give that some thought.

I came on to say, I use the various private seismos that are available, and in particular the Icelandic ones but today I discovered that not only has the PSN (Private Seismic Network) got many more I had not encountered they are all available now on an interactive map.

Bookmark this page for the PSN seimos

I find that they are pretty much world wide and thus can give us a reasonable checks and balances facility to see if the 'official' sites are right.

We often come across people saying that the USGS et al have fiddled the data. Now we can prove that they have not (or have )

Cool, take your time.

If you could have a look at those down south of Tasmania for me and see if the earlier ones are the same type as the most recent. I do not know if a "compressive quake" would look any different on equipment to a "release quake".

It may be interesting. Would be very good if we could tell the difference!

P

reply to post by PuterMan

Statistically of course there is ~100% chance of there being a major quake (6+) in the next three days so if it happens, as it will, is that statistics or planets?

Now to be fair PM...

We both agree that there's on average at least 1 x 7+ earthquake per month, meaning that they can strike ANYTIME within a 31 day period. Now that it's been 30 days we can pull those sort of statistics and they appear quite logical.

The difference here is that there hasn't been a 7+ earthquake since my bold prediction on the 13th of April, that we wouldn't see another 7+ earthquake until around the 14th to 16th of May, with an update that it might take to the 20th of May to eventuate, though I still believe the next 3 days will eventuate in my 7+ prediction coming true.

Now given that on the 13th of April, which was only 2 days after the 2 massive 8+'s, I made my new prediction that things were about to CALM DOWN, and that there'd be no further earthquakes above 6+

reply to post by SpaceJockey1

I will be watching this thread and your post as well. It fascinates me using planetary positions to predict quakes, actually makes alot of sense to me.

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


Bill Foster - The Master Of Disaster - has some graphs that may be of interest to you. I have not verified the data yet myself as I have something I need to get done before tonight.

Where have all the earthquakes gone?

Experts have come up with something, sort of. It's specific to this section of the San Andreas for now-

www.ouramazingplanet.com...

I am concerned about the North American subduction zone and the New Madrid myself.

Earthquake shakes Israel

May 13, 2012

JERUSALEM (JTA) -- A moderate earthquake shook Israel.

The 5.3 magnitude earthquake, which originated near Cyprus, was felt Friday night from Beersheba to Haifa.

Hundreds of Israelis called police following the temblor.

The last earthquake felt in Israel was a 3.8 temblor in December; a 5.9 magnitude earthquake struck Israel in April 2011.

JERUSALEM (JTA)

Originally posted by pheonix358
The energy transferred to the Indian Ocean plate added a rotational moment which was transferred to the bottom of this plate causing the quakes between Tasmania and Antarctica.

What quakes between Tasmania and Antarctica?

If you mean the Balleny Is/Pac-Ant-Ridge, they didn't happen according to USGS.
And they are between Zealandia and Antarctica.
Tasmania doesn't even come into the picture, sheeech they don't even have a Super13 Team

I think if there is any rotation going on then its Antarctica thats doing it, and its Anti Clockwise, based on the timeline of events SE of Easter Island/Pac-Ant Ridge/BallenyIs/Macquarie.
All the rest of the Plates just jiggle around, like pieces of ice in an iceflow on the sea

This is a post and run

Mag 7 quakes and greater

quakedata.wordpress.com...

Just a bit of statistics. If a quake is going to be a mag 7 or greater what is the likelihood of it being a 7, 8 or 9

March is not a good month (every 18.666 years)

Must be graph day
heres one I did, the story so far 2012 Mag 5+ using ANSS data
I know quake numbers don't mean anything really and I can't see any trend where because there is a quiet period suddenly a bigun hits, except that once before the W of Sumatra 8's, something that happens once doesn't show a trend
I also only see aftershocks from the 7+'s influencing the numbers twice, after the Vanuatu 7.1 on day33, and the Sumatra 8's on day102


Its incomplete anyway, ANSS is only showing their opinion, there are quite a few 5 missing that LDEO have on their list.

I didn't want to mess up the table with text too much, but where the bar is coloured according to the key at the top, that includes all the 5's that day as well, i.e. on the day of the Sumatra 11/4 they had the 2 mag8's , 6 mag 6's (3 of which were aftershocks at W of Sumatra), and 42 mag 5's (36 of which were aftershocks of Sumatra) making a total of 50 above Mag 5 that day.

likewise on the day of the Vanuatu 7.1, 02/02, of the 22 other quakes that day, 17 were aftershocks of that, with 5 elsewhere in the planet


if you are wondering what that 17 count bar is on day28, 28/02, 10 of those were Kermadec Is after a 5.9Mw there