Where Are All The ELENIN Conspiracy Theorists Now?

Originally posted by hotbread

This is for all those Elenin Earthquakes conspiracy theorists, it's time for you to come out of your hiding places and prove your theory to the World or whatever excuse you're going to come up with to clarify your failed theory and predictions.

This is the day where many of you predicted a huge and disastrous catastrophe that would occur somewhere
on this planet, and NASA was covering it up because Leonid didn't exist, and because ELE is an Extinction Level Event and because etc.....

The alignment that you've all been waiting for is here, so it's time for you to deliver your promises.

ELENIN
Elenin NASA
Elenin Alignment
Elenin Obama

You all know yourselves anyway

You do realise that first link for your argument actually shows Elenin will be close to the earth 18TH OCTOBER?
And the OP actually says debris from the tail won't reach us until the 6TH NOVEMBER?

Err.. back to the drawing board!

how ironic..THE REALITY IS WE DID GET A FALLING SPACE OBJECT during the window


www.foxnews.com...

maybe this was a nasa symbolism game the whole time

Now if we can just make it through 2012...

Seriously though, I feel like this site is an outlet for truth in spite of the mainstream. When we have people shouting off about 2012 this, and elenin that, and prophesies about global war/economic collapse, etc..., it takes away from the otherwise rich, useful and interesting conversation. I hate referring people to this site (and generally do not) because of this kind of garbage. There is so much useful information here which is tainted with bizarre, unfounded and purely fabricated fear mongering. I gladly encourage anyone, with any information, of any kind to put forth what they have to offer... so long as it is supported by facts based in reality.

reply to post by consciousgod

You don't show your calculations.

I did not show my calculations. You are correct, but my values were determined using stochastic methods.

It's not random. There is a cause and effect.

You are wrong or more likely you understood nothing of what I wrote and are therefore trying to cover up your lack of understanding. So let's see if we can educate you. I believe you can figure this out.

Earthquakes on a worldwide scale appear to be independent events, and also appear to random in nature. In this case the randomness is uniform with respect to time, and intensity. Over long periods of time records show a relatively constant number of quakes of various intensities. This is often given as a rate of 1 8 or greater quake a year. This is a statement of the distribution of those quakes over time although the interval between those quakes varies.

If Elenin is not the cause of the EQs, there is still a cause. Plate tectonics, volcanism. meteorite impact, or some other cause.

Volcanoes cause very few quakes. Meteor impacts do not cause quakes. The cause of quakes is slippage along fault planes usually associated with plate boundaries. The only correlation between quakes and other celestial bodies is a few rare/uncommon quakes that are of low intensity and are correlated with the Moon. The correlations are determined by showing that these events are not random in nature as other quakes appear to be.

To put a 8.8 and 9.0 off as random shows your ignorance.

Your ignorance is glaring, but is repairable. To show that a quake is related to Elenin or the Moon or the Sun is to show that there is a difference between what happened and would be expected to happen were the events random.

Just because you do not understand the correlation, you choose to call it random rather than admit something is going on that you do not understand. Using your logic, everything that happens in the world is random.

It turns out that one of the more difficult issues to understand is the meaning of random. PAP Moran showed how 3 different definitions to a simple problem led to 3 distinct answers each based on the 3 definitions of random he used. I can only suppose that you do not understand what random means. Clearly you are trying to misrepresent what I said unless the more likely explanation is that you do not understand what I wrote.

Is the weather random? Using your logic, it is; but we all know there is a cause and effect for weather unless you believe in miracles, fantasies, or the occult. You may as well say GW Bush causes everything.

Your little rant gives us the answer - you have no idea what you are talking about.

There is a 38% chance of picking a date within 5 days of a 7 or larger quake using random selection. For a window of 8 days the chance is 52%.
Now if we drop the quake level down to the 6.3 of Christ's Church the odds are much better. The odds just to an 80% chance of picking within a window of 2 days of an event of that size. That is just random chance.

If you are so smart show me that these values are wrong. You can't because you do not have the background to determine these probabilities. Go ask your high school math teacher how to construct a stochastic model and they can do the work for you.

Cheers

Are you going to be as quick and direct with a new post in a few days if something problamatic takes place? As others have said more eloquent than I. This is a conspiracy website. Do you expect to find a bunch of A-typical thinkers? Not in here. In here we have, some x.y.z. thinkers. Meaning outside the box.

Elenin was from my stand point an anomally of hugh proportions. It was/is a SWAG. Scientific Wild Ass Guess.

reply to post by GeorgiaGirl

You are correct. An observation was made, a hypothesis was formed, and now we are waiting to see.

Actually it was:
Lies were made - no previous alignments match up to big quakes
A wishy washy idea was hatched - a poorly stated claim was made
The results are inconclusive

reply to post by voidla

And the OP actually says debris from the tail won't reach us until the 6TH NOVEMBER?

Does the OP know that we won't cross through the tail?

Does the OP know the orientation of the tail with respect to the Sun?

reply to post by SuperTripps

how ironic..THE REALITY IS WE DID GET A FALLING SPACE OBJECT during the window

There are always those that grovel in the dirt looking for some sense of success from a failed claim.

reply to post by openyourmind1262


There is a huge difference between thinking outside of the box and wasting all of your time contemplating the demonstrably impossible.

Elenin was not a SWAG it was promoting ignorance.

reply to post by nedined


looks like a bunch of scary faces
lets hope we are not being invaded by armada of evil floating faces,we would never see that one coming!

Originally posted by Skellon
reply to post by XplanetX

 

Well it is true, it wasn't an ordinary comet. It was a hyperbolic comet.

I agree with your post though, this is a conspiracy website. Yet so many 'debunk on the second post' members don't quite get that. It is not a race to trash someone's theory to look cool.

If a poster is clearly full of it and his/her post makes no sense at all, then fair enough. If however, there is something relevant to be discussed from the post, then that discussion should be encouraged. Having an open mind is not a bad thing.


Regards, Skellon.

edit on 26-9-2011 by Skellon because: (no reason given)

Personally I WANT someone to debunk me if I come up with a theory that makes no sense....and it amazes me of the people that get offended when they are thoroughly debunked. That's what learning is all about....That's why scientists have peer review processes. For instance the newest finding of faster than light neutrino particles is not being acknowledged as a fact until other scientists can repeat it. Something that is currently being planned on.

I think it's especially important to quickly debunk 'Extinction Level Events' such as Elenin was said to be....Such theories do indeed cause people to make rash decisions, and In the past similar scares have actually caused suicides!

Tomorrow is the 27th, my prediction is that something will happen tomorrow. Something that we are not used to experiencing. Lets wait and see.

isn't this post a day early?

Although i am not on the *This is it band wagon* I'd have to say that the Jury is still out on the Elenin timelines. I do think we are moving toward a lot of natural disasters be it as a result of Elenin or not. The solar activity over the last 5 days speaks for itself WOW... we have truly been dodging the bulit almost daily in regards to CME's. It only takes one direct hit. There is alot going on in all respects and if this little comet turns out to be a dude it will not change the fact that things are increasingly getting more intense.

It's all fun till someone gets their eye poked out. Or half their country, or all their power, or all their money!!

Stay alert and keep on keepin on.
P:

reply to post by BIGPoJo

Tomorrow is the 27th, my prediction is that something will happen tomorrow. Something that we are not used to experiencing. Lets wait and see.

Can you be less vague? I want to avoid the shoehorning typical of such vague claims.

Originally posted by DocEmrick
reply to post by InfaRedMan

 

What if Elenin and GWB are in cahoots?

ZOMG! I think we need to investigate this link further...

IRM

reply to post by StayAlert1


So-called direct hits from CMEs are not rare. What do you expect it to do?

Why do you think that things are not normal? What is there specifically that is out of the norm?

The Elenin "craze" is really no different then many of the other scenarios floating around ATS. They do only one thing, they satisfy the Human need for danger. Its a craving we have acquired on the long road of evolution.

I thought nothing's supposed to happen until tomorrow?

reply to post by PerceptionReality

The "alignment" is going to occur in about 2 hours.
I'm gonna make a drink....unrelated.