Can China Invade Taiwan?

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo

Originally posted by zcheng
Where will the ground war fight in war between US and China, Dude? In Europe, or North America?

If there is a war, most likely it will be near the coast of China. US can easily defeat China in open ocean. But when it is near Chinese coast, China can combine land-based airforce, missiles from various kinds platform, China has the advantage.

Uh... since when do infantry and tanks fight on "open ocean?"

That is exactly why I said your analysis is absurd.

you need to stop slagging the liberals and also you need to actually think about this, many people dont want war, they are happy in their country and to care about thier land.

Originally posted by devilwasp
you need to stop slagging the liberals and also you need to actually think about this, many people dont want war, they are happy in their country and to care about thier land.

Exactly!

War is nothing to be happy about. We shouldn't go to war just because it is war.

I don't think China will be invading Taiwan any time soon now. since Jiang Zemin has stepped down as Commander of the armed forces and been replaced by President Hu Jintao. Jintao appears to be a moderate and if things go his way there shouldn't be war.

Originally posted by devilwasp
one thing to take into acount is the "Sunburn" missiles. they are acurate and deadly.
but nbot sure how many china has.

The Sunburn has a little brother called the AS-19 ' Krypton', which the Clinton administration perfected for the Russians. It turns out now that the Russians have sold this missile to the Chinese as part of a fighter deal. Here's the link devilwasp :

www.abovetopsecret.com...

yeah but i was meaning the sunburn cause the chinese navy have them.

this is why China will take Taiwan relatively easily.

Talk about hardware.

But America still is ahead.

Originally posted by Lucretius
this is why China will take Taiwan relatively easily.

Yes all very impressive, but in what numbers? While the Su-27 and the Zues Shield are impressive, Can they deploy them in sig numbers? Would they be able to take out the F-16's of Taiwan Plus the combined fighter squads of 3-4 CBG? IF they can keep the PAC-2 and 3's from fragging our own fighters, then they should be able to put a dent in the air power as well. China as of now does not have the Phibs to get the tanks to Taiwan in Sig numbers either.

China has a large military and they are improving it each year. But its ability to project power is very limited at this stage and its main purpose is defensive. Can China burn Taiwan down to bedrock? Yes. Can it invade and take it over without doing that? NO!

Originally posted by FredT

Originally posted by Lucretius
this is why China will take Taiwan relatively easily.

Yes all very impressive, but in what numbers? While the Su-27 and the Zues Shield are impressive, Can they deploy them in sig numbers? Would they be able to take out the F-16's of Taiwan Plus the combined fighter squads of 3-4 CBG? IF they can keep the PAC-2 and 3's from fragging our own fighters, then they should be able to put a dent in the air power as well. China as of now does not have the Phibs to get the tanks to Taiwan in Sig numbers either.

China has a large military and they are improving it each year. But its ability to project power is very limited at this stage and its main purpose is defensive. Can China burn Taiwan down to bedrock? Yes. Can it invade and take it over without doing that? NO!

The SU-30

The first batch of 38 aircraft delivered between 2000 and 2001 are deployed in the PLAAF Flight Test and Training Centre based at Cangzhou AFB, Hebei Province.

The second batch of 38 aircraft delivered between 2002 and 2003 are deployed by the PLAAF 9th fighter regiment (3rd Air Division) based at Wuhu AFB, Anhui Province.

The third batch of 28 aircraft, reported to be Su-30MKK2 variant, will be deployed in the PLA Naval Air Corps.

All are equiped with advanced Kh-59ME (NATO codename: AS-18 Kazoo) missiles

The SU-27/J-11

The first batch of 20 Su-27SK single-seat fighters and 6 Su-27UBK two-deater fighter-trainers (nose number 01~26) were initially deployed by the PLAAF 9th fighter regiment (3rd air division) based at Wuhu AFB, Anhui Province. These aircraft were demonstrated extensively during the 1996 Taiwan crisis and following PLA military exercises in the late 1990s. At least 5 aircraft have been seriously damaged during a typhoon in 1998, and an unknown number of the aircraft were lost during trainings. After the regiment were upgraded with the newer Su-30MKK fighters in 2001, its Su-27s were dispatched to several other units.

The second batch of 16 Su-27SKs and 6 Su-27UBKs (nose number 27~48) are deployed by the PLAAF 4th fighter regiment (2nd air division) based at Suixi AFB, Guangdong Province. This regiment also operates at least 4 single-seat J-11 fighters.

The third batch of 28 Su-27UBKs are deployed by the PLAAF 90th fighter regiment (33rd air division) based at Baiduo AFB, Chongqing.

the J-10

Some J-10 fighters may have already been delivered to the PLAAF for further trial and evaluation. Unconfirmed report indicated that the aircraft will enter operational service as early as 2005 to 2007. However, as people have learned from the experience of another home-developed project JH-7 fighter-bomber, this might be proven too optimistic. It is possible that initially only 30 to 50 aircraft will be delivered to the PLAAF so that the aircraft can be fully tested. This will allow CAC engineers some extra time to solve problems emerged from the operational test evaluation (OT&E) phase before the design is finalised. The full operational deployment of the aircraft might not happen before 2010.

Plus a further 2000 J-7/8's are waiting to back these fighters up

Following the launch of two Type 052B missile destroyers in 2002, Jiangnan Shipyard continued to build another two new guided missile destroyers for the PLA Navy. These two ships, reportedly designated as Type 052C, are fitted with the phased array radar system similar to the U.S. Aegis, as well as vertical launch systems (VLS) for the long-range air defence missiles. Once joining the service, these ships will become the PLA Navy�s most modern and sophisticated surface combatants.

Type 052B Multipurpose Missile Destroyer

Compared to the PLA Navy�s current Type 052 (Luhu class) and Type 051B (Luhai class) destroyers, the new Type 052B destroyers possess much better air defence capabilities, which comprises two Russian-made SA-N-12 Grizzly medium-range SAM launchers and two indigenously developed Type 730 close in weapon systems (CIWSs). Despite the lack of more sophisticated systems such as the phased array radar and vertical launch system (VLS), the destroyers are generally capable of providing limited medium-range fleet air defence.

Sovremenny Class (Project 956) Missile Destroyer

China purchased two unfinished ex-Soviet Navy Sovremenny class (Project 956) missiles destroyers in the 1990s. The two ships, 136 Hangzhou and 137 Fuzhou, were delivered to the PLA Navy in 1999 and 2000 respectively. With their formidable 3M-80E Moskit (NATO codename: SS-N-22 Sunburn) supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles and 9M38 (NATO codename: SA-N-7 Gadfly) air defence missiles, Sovremenny class is the most capable surface combatant in the PLA Navy inventory. China ordered an additional two Sovremenny destroyers in 2002. These are the improved variant Project 956EM and expected to be delivered between 2005 and 2006.

The Type 98 is the latest development of China�s main battle tanks (MBTs) and represents ain increase in firepower, mobility and protection. The tank was first revealed to the public in October 1999, and is reported to have entered service with the PLA in a small number for operational test and evaluation before the design is finalised. An improved variant Type 98G features new explosive reaction armour and Leopard 2 A6-style additional reinforcement to the turret frontal armour with externally mounted add-on armour modules.

PLA NAVY EAST SEA FLEET



Headquarters: Ningbo, Zhejiang

Flagship: Chongmingdao (DJ302) Replenishment Ship

Naval Bases: Shanghai, Zhoushan, Fujian

Defence Region: East China Sea, Taiwan Strait

Coastal Defence Regions (CDR): Lianyungang CDR, Wusong CDR, Dinghai CDR, Wenzhou CDR, Ningde CDR, Xiamen CDR

Naval Airfields: Dachang (Shanghai)

Sea Units

* Destroyer/Frigate Division
* Frigate Division
* Conventional Submarine Division
* Landing Ship Division
* Fast Attack Craft Division

Air Units

* 1 X Fighter Division
* 2 X Bomber Divisions
* 1 X Training Regiment
* 1 X Shipborne Helicopter Group

Marine Units

* 1 X Marine Infantry Bridge (3rd)

Ships

* Destroyers (6): 2 X Soveremenny Class; 4 X Type 051 (Luda Class)
* Frigates (15): 2 X Type 053H3 (Jiangwei-II Class); 4X Type 053H2G (Jiangwei-I Class); 9 X Type 053H (Jianghu Class)
* Conventional Submarines (18): 4 X Type 877/636 (Kilo Class); 2 X Type 039 (Song Class); 12 X Type 035 (Ming Class)
* Large Landing Ships (4): 4 X Type 072 (Yukang Class)

Aircraft

* Fighter: J-8A/B, J-7, J-6,
* Bomber/Attacker: JH-7, Q-5, H-6D, H-5
* Patrol and AEW: Y-8X
* Trainer: JJ-6, JJ-5
* Helicopter: Ka-28, Z-8, Z-9


PLA NAVY NORTH SEA FLEET



Headquarters: Qingdao, Shandong

Flagship: Harbin (112) DDG

Naval Bases: Lushun, Huludao, Qingdao

Defence Region: Yellow Sea

Coastal Defence Regions (CDR): Dalian CDR, Yingkou CDR, Qinhuangdao CDR, Tianjin CDR, Weihai CDR, Jiaonan CDR

Naval Airfields: Shanhaiguan, Qingdao

Sea Units

* Destroyer Division
* Frigate Division
* Nuclear Submarine Division
* Conventional Submarine Division
* Fast Attack Craft Division

Air Units

* 2 X Fighter Divisions
* 1 X Bomber Division
* 1 X Training Regiment
* 1 X Shipborne Helicopter Group
* 1 X Amphibious Aircraft Group

Ships

* Destroyers (7): 5 X Type 051 (Luda Class); 2 X Type 052 (Luhu Class)
* Frigates (5): 5 X Type 053H (Jianghu Class)
* Conventional Submarines (15): 13 X Type 035 (Ming Class); 2 X Type 033 (Remeo Class)
* Nuclear Submarines (6): 1 X Type 092 SSBN (Xia Class); 5 X Type 091 SSN (Han Class)

Aircraft

* Fighter: J-8A, J-7, J-6,
* Bomber/Attacker: H-5, Q-5
* Patrol and AEW: SH-5
* Trainer: JJ-6, JJ-5
* Helicopter: Z-8, Z-9



PLA NAVY SOUTH SEA FLEET



Headquarters: Zhanjiang, Guangdong

Flagship: Nancang (NY953) Replenishment Ship

Naval Bases: Zhanjiang, Guangzhou, Yulin

Defence Region: South China Sea

Coastal Defence Regions (CDR): Zhanjiang CDR, Beihai CDR, Huangpu CDR, Shantou CDR, Haikou CDR, Xisha CDR

Naval Airfields: Linshui, Haikou

Sea Units

* Destroyer Division
* Frigate Division
* Conventional Submarine Division
* Landing Ship Division
* Fast Attack Craft Division
* Hong Kong Garrison Troops Naval Unit

Air Units

* 1 X Fighter Division
* 1 X Bomber Division
* 1 X Transport Regiment
* 1 X Shipborne Helicopter Group

Marine Units

* 1 X Marine Infantry Bridge (1st), including 5 combat battalions.

Ships

* Destroyers (7): 1 X Type 051B (Luhai Class); 6 X Type 051 (Luda Class)
* Frigates (17): 2 X Type 053H3 (Jiangwei-II Class); 15X Type 053H (Jianghu Class)
* Conventional Submarines (6+): 6 X Type 035 (Ming Class); Unknown number if Type 033 (Remeo Class)
* Large Landing Ships (17): 10 X Type 072II (Yuting Class); 7 X Type 072 (Yukang Class)

Aircraft

* Fighter: J-8A/B/D, J-7B, J-6,
* Bomber/Attacker: Q-5, H-6D, H-5
* Tanker: H-6
* Trainer: JJ-6, JJ-5
* Helicopter: Z-8, Z-9


[edit on 22-9-2004 by Lucretius]

The SU-27/30MMK/J-11 Based on your numbers lets say less than 200 eh?
(That being said according to the AWST Source Book for 2004 Its alot less.)

The number of MiG 19/21's you quoted is actually low, according to my reference material its more like 3400

The Mig 19/21's will be in force, but I doubt at least initally they will be sent agains the Taiwanese defences. How many of your front line fighters would your high command be willing to risk? Could they afford to risk them all and leave nothing but the older planes to defend the mainland bases? Doubtfull. Add into the fact that the US and Taiwanese planes will be under AWACS coverage, adds to thier effectivness even more. If the F-22 is present that is one more nail in the air coffin

The PLAAN is making good strides, but it is far from a bluewater Navy. In addition its ASW units need more development to be able to counter the swarms of 688 class subs and the newer Virgina class subs that are comming on line. Add to that no carrier to project power.

The Type 98 Tank is a good MBT, but again, how do you propose to get it to Taiwan in large enough numbers to be of any use? BTW, do you know what its RHAe ratings are?

Originally posted by FredT
The SU-27/30MMK/J-11 Based on your numbers lets say less than 200 eh?
(That being said according to the AWST Source Book for 2004 Its alot less.)

The number of MiG 19/21's you quoted is actually low, according to my reference material its more like 3400

The Mig 19/21's will be in force, but I doubt at least initally they will be sent agains the Taiwanese defences. How many of your front line fighters would your high command be willing to risk? Could they afford to risk them all and leave nothing but the older planes to defend the mainland bases? Doubtfull. Add into the fact that the US and Taiwanese planes will be under AWACS coverage, adds to thier effectivness even more. If the F-22 is present that is one more nail in the air coffin

The PLAAN is making good strides, but it is far from a bluewater Navy. In addition its ASW units need more development to be able to counter the swarms of 688 class subs and the newer Virgina class subs that are comming on line. Add to that no carrier to project power.

The Type 98 Tank is a good MBT, but again, how do you propose to get it to Taiwan in large enough numbers to be of any use? BTW, do you know what its RHAe ratings are?

I'm assuming the US does not get involved... my reasoning: it has too much to lose and nothing to gain in a conflict with China

Taiwan has been re-arming over the last couple of years, but even with F-16s, Patriots, Hawkeyes, etc etc, the supply is too short against a sustained Chinese attack.

They simply don't have the resources to compete against the Chinese millitary

I read Taiwan has 150 f16's. and 60 mirage 2000-5, which while potent... is simply not up to the job of defending the airspace.

China would probably use misile strikes to eliminate most of the airfelds/AA sites anyway before risking it's aircraft. When it's sure that the way is cleared it can mop up the remainder...

The PLAAN will have probably blockaded the island as a precurser to the conflict... ensuring that re-supply's and US commerical ships can not reach the island... With the next gen chinese destroyers guarding the chinese coast, stopping any counterattack potential.

As far as amphibious landings are concerned... if the PLAAN can establish full air supperiority over the island and surrounding ocean... than commerical ships can be used as makeshift transports, as the threat of missile strikes will be largely taken care of.

The Type-98G = vs KE (mm)(1): Turret: 800/ Glacis: 400 vs CE (mm)(1) Turret: 1000/ Glacis: 480

[edit on 22-9-2004 by Lucretius]

Lucretius:
I'm assuming the US does not get involved... my reasoning: it has too much to lose and nothing to gain in a conflict with China

I'm saying the U.S. doesn't understand that line of reasoning and would definately become involved.

Bode

I don't think US will definitely get invovled. If, IF and invasion does occur in the next few years I don't know if the US can politically afford another war. And they'll have to pull a lot of troops out of other regions they may still be in ie Iraq and Afghanistan and other areas. And I'm sure most troops in Iraq wouldn't be too happy about fighting another war so quickly and against a much larger and better equipped opposition.

Originally posted by bodebliss

Lucretius:
I'm assuming the US does not get involved... my reasoning: it has too much to lose and nothing to gain in a conflict with China

I'm saying the U.S. doesn't understand that line of reasoning and would definately become involved.

Bode

To be honest I don't think the US can afford to make another mistake in the current world climate

Originally posted by D
I don't think US will definitely get invovled. If, IF and invasion does occur in the next few years I don't know if the US can politically afford another war. And they'll have to pull a lot of troops out of other regions they may still be in ie Iraq and Afghanistan and other areas. And I'm sure most troops in Iraq wouldn't be too happy about fighting another war so quickly and against a much larger and better equipped opposition.

Draft is ON THE WAY next year. So there will be no lack of cannon folders.

Originally posted by Lucretius


To be honest I don't think the US can afford to make another mistake in the current world climate

why?
they have a very large budget,mabye not massive but big enough.

Originally posted by Lucretius


The PLAAN will have probably blockaded the island as a precurser to the conflict... ensuring that re-supply's and US commerical ships can not reach the island... With the next gen chinese destroyers guarding the chinese coast, stopping any counterattack potential.

You forget the US submaine fleet which would easily blow your bolckade out of the water if they chose to do so. Chinese anti-submarine tech is primitive compared to the west.

Not to mention what would happen to your converted cargo ships carrying soldiers. 1 torpedo 1 kill.

Originally posted by Lucretius

To be honest I don't think the US can afford to make another mistake in the current world climate

The thing is, it wouldn't be seen as being a mistake, China would be clearly seen as the agressor trying to invade a free and democratic society.