Can China Invade Taiwan?

mad scientist:
The thing is, it wouldn't be seen as being a mistake, China would be clearly seen as the agressor trying to invade a free and democratic society.

China would appear to the world as the evil aggressor and the U.S. would get to play the role it loves best. The role of Avenging Angel.

Bode


[edit on 9/22/2004 by bodebliss]

Originally posted by bodebliss
China would appear to the world as the evil aggressor and the U.S. would get to play the role it loves best. The role of Avenging Angel.

Bode

Okay, you are starting to sound really... I can't say.

If you know anything about China, China is a very inward country. They are a peace-loving people, and are very non-aggressive.

Don't worry. If we ever go to war with China, I'll be sure to opt for you to enter the battlezone first!

sweatmonicaIdo:
Don't worry. If we ever go to war with China, I'll be sure to opt for you to enter the battlezone first!

Thanks. I would pay my own way to get there.

We would die in a last ditch battle defending freedom, though none would live to exalt our bravery!

I would be at peace, then.

Bode








[edit on 9/22/2004 by bodebliss]

Originally posted by bodebliss
Thanks. I would pay my own way to get there.

We would die in a last ditch battle defending freedom, though none would live to exalt our bravery!

I would be at peace, then.

Bode
[edit on 9/22/2004 by bodebliss]

Defending freedom? From what? China ain't attacking Taiwan.

just as Tibet !!!

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo

Originally posted by bodebliss
China would appear to the world as the evil aggressor and the U.S. would get to play the role it loves best. The role of Avenging Angel.

Bode

Okay, you are starting to sound really... I can't say.

If you know anything about China, China is a very inward country. They are a peace-loving people, and are very non-aggressive.

Don't worry. If we ever go to war with China, I'll be sure to opt for you to enter the battlezone first!

Invictus

Out of the night that covers me,
Black as the pit from pole to pole,
I thank whatever gods may be
For my unconquerable soul.

In the fell clutch of circumstance
I have not winced or cried aloud.
Under the bludgeonings of chance
My head is bloody, but unbowed.

Beyond this place of wrath and tears
Looms but the horror of the shade,
And yet the menace of the years
Finds, and shall find me, unafraid.

It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishments the scroll,
I am the master of my fate:
I am the captain of my soul.


by William Ernest Henley



[edit on 9/22/2004 by bodebliss]

Originally posted by mad scientist

Originally posted by Lucretius


The PLAAN will have probably blockaded the island as a precurser to the conflict... ensuring that re-supply's and US commerical ships can not reach the island... With the next gen chinese destroyers guarding the chinese coast, stopping any counterattack potential.

You forget the US submaine fleet which would easily blow your bolckade out of the water if they chose to do so. Chinese anti-submarine tech is primitive compared to the west.

Not to mention what would happen to your converted cargo ships carrying soldiers. 1 torpedo 1 kill.

Why are you saying "your"... i'm not from China, nor to I have any hereditory links to the chinese...

That out of the way... my aforementioned argument is based upon the assumption that the US does not get involved. Please read more carefully in future.

Originally posted by Lucretius
I'm assuming the US does not get involved... my reasoning: it has too much to lose and nothing to gain in a conflict with China
Taiwan has been re-arming over the last couple of years, but even with F-16s, Patriots, Hawkeyes, etc etc, the supply is too short against a sustained Chinese attack.

I would have to agree with you on that. No, this whole thread is predicated on the US helping Taiwan. No the Taiwanese would put up a valant fight, and they would make the price really high for the ChiCom agressors, but, in the end they would fall by sheer weight of numbers. Now if Taiwan can up its sub force, then the naval part of this exersize would get a bit more intersting IMHO. The US has a bit to gain, but everything to lose. The US's relationship with alot of countries is based on its strength. If it allows the Chinese to overrun Taiwan, Spratlys etc., and cede the region to the Middle Kingdom, it would lose credability elsewhere in the world. Not to mention, who knows with the teritorial ambitions the ChiCOms have, Siberia or even Japan may be in its sights.

Originally posted by Lucretius

That out of the way... my aforementioned argument is based upon the assumption that the US does not get involved. Please read more carefully in future.

Well, you said the Chicoms would try and blockade Taiwan so that US supply ships couldn't get through. Therefore you're assuming the US would send supply ships which would of course be protected in any conflict zone. So if as you say the US didn't get involved then there is no need for a blockade as no one else would be shipping weapons there.

Anyway, it would be far easier to destroy the Chinese invasion fleet than fighting guerillas in Iraq. 5-6 SSN's would easily do the job.

Suppose communist China did take over Taiwan, wouold they be facing a guerilla situation like the one in Iraq ? After all they have been indoctrined for the last 50 years to hate the communists. I can't imagine it being a walkover like Tibet.

Originally posted by mad scientist
Suppose communist China did take over Taiwan, wouold they be facing a guerilla situation like the one in Iraq ? After all they have been indoctrined for the last 50 years to hate the communists. I can't imagine it being a walkover like Tibet.

Very likely there will be no Guerilla War in Taiwan.
Reason 1:
PLA was born from Guerilla war, it knows all the tactics of Guerilla warfare. Most importantly China knows how to isolate guerillas, and win a guerilla war.

Reason 2:
The majority of people in Taiwan consider themselves as Taiwanese and Chinese at the same time. Most TI members would have long fled Taiwan, even before the war starts.

The only uncertainty is how much US would commit in the intervention.

Originally posted by FredT

Originally posted by Lucretius
I'm assuming the US does not get involved... my reasoning: it has too much to lose and nothing to gain in a conflict with China
Taiwan has been re-arming over the last couple of years, but even with F-16s, Patriots, Hawkeyes, etc etc, the supply is too short against a sustained Chinese attack.

I would have to agree with you on that. No, this whole thread is predicated on the US helping Taiwan. No the Taiwanese would put up a valant fight, and they would make the price really high for the ChiCom agressors, but, in the end they would fall by sheer weight of numbers. Now if Taiwan can up its sub force, then the naval part of this exersize would get a bit more intersting IMHO. The US has a bit to gain, but everything to lose. The US's relationship with alot of countries is based on its strength. If it allows the Chinese to overrun Taiwan, Spratlys etc., and cede the region to the Middle Kingdom, it would lose credability elsewhere in the world. Not to mention, who knows with the teritorial ambitions the ChiCOms have, Siberia or even Japan may be in its sights.

In any other situation you would be correct. However the world recognises that Taiwan is a part of China... ethics and morals aside, the US would not lose anything by failing to help defend Taiwan as the consequences of such actions are well known.

It would result in world ecomomic chaos, which is something i'm sure most political leaders want to avoid.

America is not obliged to defend Taiwan either... only to "give the Taiwanese access to the means to defend themselves"... The US is not going to fight their war for them, in the same way that they did not help the UK in the Falklands.

The most the US will do is provide logistical support... however this will probably be limited. If there is a chinese blockade than the US will not send in supply vessels and risk millitary confrontation.

yah, the Chinese have plenty of cannon fodder to trow into the meat grinder. They'd lose 100 000 soldiers and not bat an eye.

Originally posted by zcheng
[Reason 1:
PLA was born from Guerilla war, it knows all the tactics of Guerilla warfare. Most importantly China knows how to isolate guerillas, and win a guerilla war.
Reason 2:
The majority of people in Taiwan consider themselves as Taiwanese and Chinese at the same time.

The PLA has not faught in a gurrilla was since Korea and is not the same force that Mao once led. They are a weird mix of 1950 and 1980's technology that they have developed, bought, or stolen. I know quite a few people from Taiwan and they are as militant as you are Zcheng. Just as you would invade and kill them all as you have implied in numerous posts. Look at the problems in Bahgdad. Do you think pacifying Taipai is going to be any easier? Of course it is you will simply kill everybody eh?

Originally posted by FredT

Originally posted by zcheng
[Reason 1:
PLA was born from Guerilla war, it knows all the tactics of Guerilla warfare. Most importantly China knows how to isolate guerillas, and win a guerilla war.
Reason 2:
The majority of people in Taiwan consider themselves as Taiwanese and Chinese at the same time.

The PLA has not faught in a gurrilla was since Korea and is not the same force that Mao once led. They are a weird mix of 1950 and 1980's technology that they have developed, bought, or stolen. I know quite a few people from Taiwan and they are as militant as you are Zcheng. Just as you would invade and kill them all as you have implied in numerous posts. Look at the problems in Bahgdad. Do you think pacifying Taipai is going to be any easier? Of course it is you will simply kill everybody eh?

Unfortunately as we all know the communist goverment is quite competent in quelling public uprisings.

Do the Taiwanese public have access to guns? I don't believe so... and unless the goverment was to distribute them I believe it will be difficult for an form of effective guerilla movement to be established.

Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Taiwan is a fairly affluent country... with little or no experiance of war/hardship... how effective a resistance do you really believe they will be to an occupying force?

[edit on 22-9-2004 by Lucretius]

Originally posted by Lucretius

Unfortunately as we all know the communist goverment is quite competent in quelling public uprisings.

Do the Taiwanese public have access to guns? I don't believe so... and unless the goverment was to distribute them I believe it will be difficult for an form of effective guerilla movement to be established.

Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Taiwan is a fairly affluent country... with little or no experiance of war/hardship... how effective a resistance do you really believe they will be to an occupying force?

[edit on 22-9-2004 by Lucretius]

Erm, 250 000 trained soldiers would make an effective guerilla force. Taiwan has been shelled by the Chinese on and off for 50 years, just look at Quemoy island where over 1 000 000 Chinese artillery shells have landed.
The Taiwanese Army is highly trained, operating on land they know intimately.

[edit on 22-9-2004 by mad scientist]

Wow, this debate has gotten to the point I have no idea who's argument is fact and whose is propoganda.

Originally posted by mad scientist
Erm, 400 000 trained soldiers would make an effective guerilla force. Taiwan has been shelled by the Chinese on and off for 50 years, just look at Quemoy island where over 1 000 000 Chinese artillery shells have landed.
The Taiwanese Army is highly trained, operating on land they know intimately.

The Shelling of Kinmen is a great and peculiar war. It lasted many years. As a norm, the shelling was on on odd day and off for even day? What kind of war was that? Kinmen is only miles from mainland China.

At that time, Jiang Jieshi was facing pressure to retreat from Kinmen and declare Taiwan main island as independent. However Jiang was a patriot Chinese, with the shelling Taiwan government could only support the troops in Kinmen. It was the consensus of Mao and Jiang. The control of outlaying Kimen, Machu islands prevented Taiwan from declaring outright independence. Go find where those islands are in the map, in order to discuss Taiwan issue.

Originally posted by Lucretius
Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Taiwan is a fairly affluent country... with little or no experiance of war/hardship... how effective a resistance do you really believe they will be to an occupying force?

You would be surprised. Its an easy mistake to link affluent with soft. America is an affluent country, buy you would have your hands full if you invaded us. Simply because you have not experienced hardship does not make you soft either. Have someone defend thier home and all bets are off. When you are fighting for your way of life all bets are off. As I said, China without US intervention will win the war, but they will pay a heavy price.

Commiting atrocities in Tibet, and murdering students in Tienniman Square seems to be what the PLA is used too these days. Taiwan will give as good as it gets. As Clancy's latest book says. If you pull a Tiger by the tail you had better have a plan for dealing with the teeth!

Originally posted by FredT
You would be surprised. Its an easy mistake to link affluent with soft. America is an affluent country, buy you would have your hands full if you invaded us. Simply because you have not experienced hardship does not make you soft either. Have someone defend thier home and all bets are off. When you are fighting for your way of life all bets are off. As I said, China without US intervention will win the war, but they will pay a heavy price.

Commiting atrocities in Tibet, and murdering students in Tienniman Square seems to be what the PLA is used too these days. Taiwan will give as good as it gets. As Clancy's latest book says. If you pull a Tiger by the tail you had better have a plan for dealing with the teeth!

Umm... Americans allowed themselves to be controlled by two snipers for 23 days. Americans are freaked out at the smallest things, they can barely handle it if the smallest things go wrong in a war. Plus, I don't think a population that seems to have no idea how to be patriotic other than wave a flag can possibly fight back.

Yeah, we'd really put up a fight. Maybe a small number, but whoa, you're dead wrong if you think we'll actually fight back. It's upsetting, but true.

[edit on 23-9-2004 by sweatmonicaIdo]