With all the talk about about the US, China, and Taiwan one really has to look at the simple fact. China cannot invade at this time.

Why?
1) China lacks the amphibious capacity to move enough troops over
2) Any attempt to airlift in the necessary equipment/troops would in all likelyhood be decimated by Taiwans Pac 2's and thier AF.
3) For all thier thugary, the ChiCom leadership seems to understand that in order to take over Taiwan they would in essence have to burn it down. If they are persuing a scorched earth policy, then there may not be much the US or Taiwan can do to stop them. However, I think they want and need to keep Taiwan viable for thier own economy. Can you imagine the efficiency of slave labor coupled to the quality controll and moderinzation that Taiwan posseses?????
4) The US would not stand by and allow Taiwan to be taken by conventional means. Aside from being a great customer from our planes and weapons systems we also benifit from an economic/industrial standpoint.
5) China can sabre rattle all they want, but can they affort to piss off thier most important trading partner the US?

Personally i think they only thing stopping China, is the United States. If the US wasn't a friend of Taiwan, then China would have over run it years ago.

i think an actual invasion would be a last resort anyways.
bombing with missiles and artillery would propably be way they would go for.

FredT, I've been saying the same thing for months. A billion soldiers (or whatever obscene number it is) does you little good if you can't move them to the battlefield or feed, supply, and protect them while they are there.

China is not going to, nor can it invade Taiwan any time soon.

china would invade taiwan if it wasnt under military and political pressure from the US, also as said it aint got the phips to do it yet,but give em time.

Every Chinese citizen basically thinks taiwan is part of china, so if they invade, the chinese people would not complain (Even if though they can't). However the chinese military does need a bigger navy and amphibious capability to start this invasion. Chinese of course would bomb the nation to bits then send troops I think the Geneva convention will not worry them too much.

Originally posted by CoMrAdE_IvAn
Chinese of course would bomb the nation to bits then send troops I think the Geneva convention will not worry them too much.

I think you guys are missing the point Taiwans only value to them is an economic one. The sput off about reuniting with thier countrymen, but the bottom line is if Taiwan was a third world country with no economy, they could care less. They have no interest in destroying Taiwan. If they did they could have done it at anytime. They want the money that having Taiwan under thier umbrella could bring in.

Then the invasion of Taiwan would cost china so much. China needs to hit them hard and fast and capture the island ASAP before the americans could get involved. That way they have a grip on the island if the americans attack.

No problem we would just do sorties from our carriers or from bases from south korea there is no need to invade Taiwan if china takes it over you do a blockade of the island and then bomb it they will starve and die due to the air raids and lack of supplies.

you havnt seen how big china is its massive you dont ave the aircraft to take it all down. secondly they have the worlds best anti aircraft screen in the world.
also you think you can take china and NK on you own?

China would only attack Taiwan if the US was massively distracted military elsewhere in the world and on a massive scale.

Originally posted by devilwasp
you havnt seen how big china is its massive you dont ave the aircraft to take it all down. secondly they have the worlds best anti aircraft screen in the world.
also you think you can take china and NK on you own?

devil were you talking to me? cuz i never said anything about takeing china and NK.

ah you never did west point but if the US were to use SK bases against china then NK would attack SK to help the chinese. it would be an excellent exscuse for them to attack SK, and with the combined might of NK and china amercas forces would be overwhelmed.

indeed, i hate to even find out the pacific is filled with chinese submarines.

Originally posted by devilwasp
you havnt seen how big china is its massive you dont ave the aircraft to take it all down. secondly they have the worlds best anti aircraft screen in the world.
also you think you can take china and NK on you own?

So did the Iraqi's, so did the Serbs, wait so did the Iraqi's again with thier invincible fibreoptic links build for them by guess who? Our friendly neihborhood ChiComs. Penetrating that type of air defence is exactly what the B-2 was designed for. You are right, it is a massive country, but if you just concentrate on strategic targets ICBM's, Dams etc. you could disrupt thier infrastructure.

NO not in the near future, The chinese do not have the navy to get to Tawain, they can cause them big issues but can not take them yet. I feel though that the Tawianese rely on the United States to protect them. They have a capable military, but no match for the PLN. (IMHO)

north korea would not attack the south too risky for them to get involved also N. korea and china are not the best of friends by any means.

still would be an exccellent opertunity far to good for them to pass it up

Originally posted by devilwasp
still would be an exccellent opertunity far to good for them to pass it up

I could see it. If Kim feels like he has nothing to loose, attacks the South and maybee just maybe China may help simply to curb US inraods in SE Asia.

WestPoint,you are too proud of your troops.You say America can bomb china,why can't china give terrorist some SPECIAL weapon to attack America?Why America still not attack N.K.,because they have SPECIAL weapons.America can only bear low-loss wars.

[edit on 26-8-2004 by Justicer]