Number of victims to unknown virus growing! State of emergency to be imposed in Ukraine?

reply to post by JustMike


If borders are being sealed, then yes, the death toll could be far greater.

Is anyone seriuosly looking at the impact here in u.s. since hardly anyone even knows what the hell is going on in ukraine and someone posts the good old govt. is just trying to save lives ? that this the work of alq? what the ---- is going on here i seriously pray that everyone takes what is going on very seriously as these people are dying and infected for the reasons we are or should be very aware of to me these posts are a lot of the same where is the action plans preparing people getting the word to everyone what's up? i mean this is a deadly storm and we could be facing major losses in this world this is not a time to put ourselves on auto-pilot

reply to post by infinite


Too little / too late. The airports were using fever checks to screen according to asen-y2k and knowing the virus doesn't always cause a fever we can be sure infections have spread.

I've seen at least one press report of someone who was in Ukraine dying of the virus after they went home.

All the simulations show that be the time they decide to seal off the outbreak its already too late. A CDC Dr said "we can never push the red button fast enough".

Originally posted by Lolliek
reply to post by ecoparity

 

there is a possible reason why you don't get immunity for the H1N1 if you get it --- it's man-made, and designed to mutate so there isn't any chance of immunity.

which also means that getting the shot is a waste of time....

I doubt seriously if anything we could do to a flu virus would make it mutate any faster than it already does. Nature herself made it one of the fastest mutating things known. Remember, it is an RNA virus and pretty much mutates every single time it replicates.

The truly scary part (at least to me) is that this version seems to be an easy species-jumper, as witness the cat who got it from its owners. If this bug is that easily transmissible, then the probability of it recombining with a "wild" flu, i.e., an avian, swine or some unknown variety, is very high. Now that doesn't automatically mean it will be lethal for humans, but it does mean that you are dealing with permutations and probabilities. Which in turn means that eventually, the extremely lethal variant will show up. Then it is an issue of is it both lethal and transmissible within a time frame that returns the horror of 1918.

I've spent a lot of my life figuring probabilities and permutations, and I really, really, really don't like what I'm looking at. The odds are not with us on this one. I'm not saying that anything is certain, just that the probabilities are with the bug and against us.

reply to post by BLUESHADOW747


Look at what I have said in my posts. Get your stuff wired tight and hang on. We at this point have a couple of options. Take the vaccine or not. That is with in the control of each of us. After that I will ether get the flu or not. If I get the flu I will ether live or I will die. This is not some video game this is the circle of life that all of us try and think that does not apply to us. Well it does. To me it does not mater who caused this, at this point my goal is to do what I can to be prepared to survive this thing. Will a really bad outcome happen? I don't know. History shows us that it can. Just because some people are calm on this forum does not mean that they are taking this lightly. I did search and rescue for a few years, want to know what I learned? The people that panic get to die first.

Just found this article on CBC.

Ukraine flu response 'over the top': expert

Countries like Ukraine have gone too far in responding to the H1N1 pandemic, a European flu specialist said Friday.

Ukraine has reported 95 deaths from acute respiratory illness, but the strain has not been confirmed as H1N1.

In most people, H1N1 infection results in mild illness.

"The mildness is good in some ways, but it has also given the disease control people some problems," said Angus Nicoll, influenza co-ordinator at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

"Then you get a Ukraine thing, where some countries have suddenly been ambushed by the pandemic and have gone over the top in their response," he added in a briefing with reporters in Stockholm.

On Monday, the Ukrainian government closed schools, shut down parliament for a week and banned public gatherings including election rallies, and restricted travel after confirming its first H1N1 death.

Nicoll said the country is likely six weeks into its outbreak, but it wasn't officially noticed until young people started getting ill and going to hospital.

"It is clear that the pandemic [H1N1] 2009 has established itself in Ukraine and it is likely that the rapidly evolving situation in Ukraine is mainly related to the pandemic," the European Centre for Disease Control said in an update Friday, adding that other causes for clusters of respiratory illness cannot be ruled out.

www.cbc.ca...

[edit on 7-11-2009 by ZombieSlayer]

reply to post by waterdoctor


you know i can understand from your perspective but it really appears there is more yacking about the figures ans statistics than the reality of what we all are facing i have also experienced alot more than i need to share here and i have found that people not waking up and facing more thanreports after the facts are in your face is exactly why more people will die and unjustly due to ill-preparations not panic !

Chances of this being a Biological attack are pretty much non-existant.

Specific to Swine Flu, everyone alive today is a descendant of people who survived the 1918 outbreak so it makes no sense to use this virus as an attack.

For the past 200 years or so increased travel has meant decreased genetic differences amongst people meaning everyone has pretty much the same base level of immune system defence. Though in small clusters such as Aboriginal people the virus has shown itself to cause more fatalities in these populations.

Because of this there would be no way of directing an outbreak. The purpose of a biological attack is to manouvere the enemy into territory where the invaders have an upper hand and cut off their supply routes.

Now this is the speculation part (though we modelled Pandemics as part of my Maths degree so it's an educated guess). The main reason I believe the Ukraine is so badly hit is because the pandemic planning was almost non-existant so none of the anti-virals needed to fight this were available. Tamiflu isn't very effective at combating flu as it only takes effect 12 -18 hours before someone would normally be cured (as noted when it was first patented) though it does seem to stop progression into more deadly forms and reduce secondary viral pneumonia infections: www.badscience.net...

Quarantines cannot stop a virus spreading although they do delay it, the reason quarantines are needed are due to a thing called Chaos Mathematics. The more complex and interconnected a society becomes, the weaker the links joining them are. In key workers, for example Health, Millitary, Fuel, Water and Electricity supply workers only 10% of them need to be ill at any given time for the whole society to collapse. Even if Swine Flu does not mutate into a more deadly form, if its spread is sped up in Winter months due to people staying indoors more, societies are still at risk of descending into chaos according to the most advanced computer analysis: www.newscientist.com...

If anything the WHO are downplaying the risk posed by Swine Flu to avoid a situation where a large percentage healthy people avoid going to work for fear of getting sick, as this would cause far greater problems than the virus itself.






[edit on 7-11-2009 by bastion]

[edit on 7-11-2009 by bastion]

Originally posted by BLUESHADOW747
reply to post by waterdoctor

 

you know i can understand from your perspective but it really appears there is more yacking about the figures ans statistics than the reality of what we all are facing i have also experienced alot more than i need to share here and i have found that people not waking up and facing more thanreports after the facts are in your face is exactly why more people will die and unjustly due to ill-preparations not panic !

If you are talking about people preparing to take care of their selves yes, people need to prepare to take care of themselves. However if you are talking about the government preparing to take care of people in all my years on this planet I have seen failure after failure of the government taking care of people. Well meaning, under qualified desk jockeys trying to micromanage a problem from 2000 miles away just does not get very good results in my book. You need very well qualified people at ground zero who have the authority to get things done in order to take care of a problem of this sort IMO.

Originally posted by BLUESHADOW747
reply to post by waterdoctor

 

you know i can understand from your perspective but it really appears there is more yacking about the figures ans statistics than the reality of what we all are facing i have also experienced alot more than i need to share here and i have found that people not waking up and facing more thanreports after the facts are in your face is exactly why more people will die and unjustly due to ill-preparations not panic !

Hate to break it to you, but this is a thread ABOUT the possible mystery virus in Ukraine. This isn't a thread about freaking out or preparing for the United States, or any other country.

This is about the virus in Ukraine. You can start another thread for preparedness if you want. You act like none of us realizes the implications this could have on the world, just cause we aren't freaking out like you...

Furthermore, you bash people posting numbers and statistics, and their analysis.... WTF? Just because maybe it's all over YOUR head, doesn't mean they're not important.

If people from THIS BOARD weren't analyzing the numbers, we would have been thinking it could be pneumonic plague for DAYS, instead it was ruled out pretty quickly.

If diligent individuals don't analyze the numbers, who the heck will??? Surely not the media... Dr. Nimen is the only virologist making daily updates and analysis. Do you want him to stop too? Should his next update be "STOP! EVERYBODY PANIC AND STOCK UP"?

[edit on 7-11-2009 by seattletruth]

Regarding the web bot question someone asked me:

Well, I went back to the original data set to find the exact wording, and ooh, boy...this is scary. I remembered it wrong. I thought that the 200 million number was the TOTAL amount of dead. No, the total is supposed to be about a billion...200 million are killed in the first "wave."

The data set is password protected, but what the hell...I think this is too important to not post (you can buy the entire 54 page document at www.halfpasathuman.com for $10), so I did my best to copy the pertinent information as related to this thread below.

Note, in the original document they put key words from the web bot spiders in brackets, and it would take me forever to do this. So, I just copied it without brackets, because I wanted to show you guys the exact wording:

Ok, they played out two scenarios. One scenario had radioactive dust particles circling the world 9 times, and the second scenario had virus particles circling the world 9 times.

Here is their scenario they wrote for the radioactive dust scenario:

The "ash death" is described as being so radioactive that a single "dust mote" being inaled will produce violent death through anal/internal bleeding and bleeding from the mucous membranes. This death form has aspect/attribute sets in support of death dancing in which the afflicted die so painfully that their last hours are spent writhing as their bodies enter enter into/are consumed by corruption/internal rot and distorted by the internal coagulation...

Not to put too fine a point on it, and actually anticipate being wrong, none the less the data accretion patterns forecast an attac at a fluid storage facility in Iran, likely underground which produces the radioactive eruption of particulate matter so fine as to be carried on the jet stream. This river of radioactive death is described as rounding/traveling around the planet 9 times before essentially being exhausted.

Within the first time around the planet, the supporting aspect/attribute sets are forecasting that 200 million will perish/die. These deaths will begin in India and continue acrosss the breadth of south east asia, and then go up across the sea of japan and estern coast of siberia. the death-laden airs are then propelled across the ice straits over to alaska and down the west coast of North America. The supporting sets are indicating that 2.2 million will die on the west coast of USA within this first pass of the radioactive jet stream. The deaths by inhalation then proceeds across the American southwest then either proceeds across...(yada yada yada).

Then still the death laden jet stream starts back and repeats this process for an additional 8 passe for a toal of 9 times around the planet. The data suggests that 200 million will die directly from the inhalation death, but that is not the true horror of the situation. The real resulting poisoning of the bread baskets of food producing regions of the northern hemisphere. This jet stream of particulate death will contribute to a planetary famine that will exceed anything that imagination may conjure up. The whole planetary food body will be distubed and destroyed in large regions. The farming of livestock will cease in the first 3 months of the passing death streams, as it becomes konwn that the food animals are themselves polluted by radioactive death.

This changes forces most of the formerly developed countries go to vegan diets, though at that point it will be too late for over 1 billion people who will have already consumed contaminated flesh.

Note: this data set is over 50 pages long, so I am selecting only the parts that talk about something circling the world 9 times...

Ok, so that's what they said about the "radioactive" scenario. I already noted in my other thread, that it was very interesting that they used the terms "Ash death", which for me sounded terribly like a black plague...but I'll let you be the judge of that.)

Here is what they say about the influenza possibility, their "alternate" possibility:

Interpretation number 2 for "new war" in fall of 2009 involves the staged release of the swine flu this past spring, and its rapid mutation over summer (northern hemisphere. As the virus has moved extensivly into the southern hemisphere, and as it is already showing impact and leethality, this particular interpetation is gaining support from universe on a daily basis.

Within this interpretation the zionist war against Iran is only a propaganda campaign designed to distract the populace form the actions of TPTB in their assault on the population of the earth by disease. The idea coming from the datasets in this interpretation will acknowledge the particulate matterial in the jet stream as well as the pan planeetary movement of the death from high winds through the minute particles in this interpretation are the virus lifeforms rather than radioactive dust.

In this scenario the imminent thread and paplpable fear created by the threads of nuclear eradicationi of Iran are used to raise the fear oevels within the planetary poulpace. This fear mongering around nuclear war is a deliberate tactice of TPTB in their effort/plan to force or trick the populace into taking the "vaccines" against the slighly lesser threat of deadly disease. The rationale in this interpretation is that the brinkmanship of the nuclear war threat between Israel and the USA will act as both a distraction from the desease tactics adn to agument the general level of fear within the populace in an attempt to panic the more mind controlled of the populace into accepting the vaccine.

Within this second alternative, the data sets of winds are still seen as the carrier for death in the form of millions of small particles, albeit in the form of air borne particulate viral cells. Again, in this interpetation, the winds/high alttitude are still seen as raining death for 9 passes around the planet. Again, in this interpetation, the death from the winds causes both populace death as as well as contamination of the animals used for food.

In this latter instance, the language around the fires and burning is still applicable in several forms. As an example the burning as death cause is now related to lung collapse due to viral infection rather than radioactive dust. A further example is the fires and burning of food still persists only in this form of the burning is of animals believed to be carriers or contaminated by viral disease. Sooo...yet another interpetation for this high confidence of the descriptor sets and primary supporting layers going the winds and high winds bring death 9 times around the earth.

Finally, also within this data sets are other predictions that we have already seen, including the following:

-TPTB will feel afraid at the magnitude and ferocity of the refusal wave from the global populace in relation to the vaccine/medicine

- Apparently release of the swine flu/new disease is but a single component of a multiple part strategy.

-They also said there is suggestion of "death by disease," a disease that is separate from the swine flu data.

Also, this:

in the years following 2009, the data sets are forecasting that as a direct consequence of the "ash death", the food chain or food body for the planet is disrupted. The global famines that minifest cause a truly massive or epid level of diaspora.....200 millions of the north american populace will be moving north into Canada....suggest that it will be a rush to get above the 50th parallel of lattitutde.

I've decided I'm going to just keep some homeopathic remedies on hand for myself and my family and friends, and anyone else who wants it. Gelsemium was the one remedy that seemed to work the best against the 1918 pandemic.


[edit on 7-11-2009 by nikiano]

reply to post by infinite

Well, yes and no. Frankly sealing the borders is utterly useless now. Even the WHO makes the point that sealing borders will not stop the spread of a virulent flu outbreak. In fact, if people are forced to be quarantined it can actually increase the infection rate in that area. That's why I say "yes and no".

I was reading in a local (Prague) paper today that the "Patients' Association" is warning that we should expect an epidemic here in the Czech Republic within two weeks, and that people should be warned of this and start preparing. They also don't recommend that people get vaccinated against seasonal flu as it "weakens the organism", but they are agreeable to at-risk people being vaccinated against swine flu.

Weird, that...

EDIT: I meant to note that this "warning" seems to relate to follow-on effects from the Ukraine situation, which was well reported here before the western msm got hold of it. We also got the original news, that some of the cases in Ukraine were due to a "mystery" infection and not swine flu. (Doesn't make it gospel truth, but at least they reported what the Ukrainians were saying.)

Oh, the latest figures are in from the Ukrainian Ministry of Health.

The data is here and shows 936,804 reported infections, 43,762 hospitalized, 144 deaths, and 19 regions now at epidemic status.

I'll also post the update as an edit to my post on the previous page.

Note that these figures do not tell us the whole story by a long shot. As I said in my long post about this, I present them for information. They also can have value later for assessing what happens in other regions. Like where I live, for example.

Mike

[edit on 7/11/09 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike


Hey Mike,
Thanks for posting what the Czech paper reported. I really want to know what the surrounding nations have to say about what's happening in the Ukraine.

Originally posted by nikiano

-TPTB will feel afraid at the magnitude and ferocity of the refusal wave from the global populace in relation to the vaccine/medicine

- Apparently release of the swine flu/new disease is but a single component of a multiple part strategy.

-They also said there is suggestion of "death by disease," a disease that is separate from the swine flu data.
Also, this:
in the years following 2009, the data sets are forecasting that as a direct consequence of the "ash death", the food chain or food body for the planet is disrupted. The global famines that minifest cause a truly massive or epid level of diaspora.....200 millions of the north american populace will be moving north into Canada....suggest that it will be a rush to get above the 50th parallel of lattitutde.

Hey nikiano,
I don't put anywhere near as much belief as I once did in web-bot predictions but the fact that they are predicting a second disease has really gotten my attention. Thanks for posting.

[edit on 7-11-2009 by really]

Slovakia has today closed all but one of its border roads into Ukraine.

My Oh just told me that the TV news there says that Yushenko will be getting a briefing tomorrow from the health minister and he will then issue a statement.


Slovakia tightens border with flu-hit Ukraine
07 Nov 2009 15:12:42 GMT
Source: Reuters
BRATISLAVA, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Slovakia said on Saturday it would close all but one road border crossing with Ukraine on Sunday because of Ukraine's flu epidemic.

[edit on 7-11-2009 by martin3030]

Sorry, I don't have time to read new replies now. I would like to have just a general wiew of the outbreak as of now. Thanks.

Originally posted by BLUESHADOW747
reply to post by waterdoctor

 

you know i can understand from your perspective but it really appears there is more yacking about the figures ans statistics than the reality of what we all are facing i have also experienced alot more than i need to share here and i have found that people not waking up and facing more thanreports after the facts are in your face is exactly why more people will die and unjustly due to ill-preparations not panic !

I know you were responding to waterdoctor but I hope you don't mind if I answer as well. I'm one of the people who has been yacking about figures and statistics.

But I'm doing it for some good reasons.

First, by posting the actual statistics here that the Ukrainian Ministry of Health is providing, it helps to keep people informed at least to some extent on the spread of infection. It also helps to make the point that the figures are a bit erratic. But at least we have them.

Secondly, please believe me, this is more than just numbers and reports. I'm aware that there are people in all those numbers: people and a lot of suffering and grief. And that's the reality of what we're facing.

I live close enough to "ground zero" that we already have quite a few "epidemic refugees" from Ukraine here in Prague. There are lots of Ukrainians here all the time. They're one of the largest sections of our foreign (ie expat) population, in fact. So it's really just a matter of time before we start to see the infection spreading here. That concerns me very much. As I said earlier in the thread, I have family here, including grandchildren. So I'm having to stare this in the face from pretty close up.

You are totally right about the need to prepare! There's precious little being said about that need here right now by our sainted leaders, and by the time they do say anything it will be way too late for many. I know this because that's the way they always are and this time will be no exception.

I'm not looking to our leaders to protect and guide us in a case like this, especially not by giving us solid warning and advice well ahead of time. If anyone thinks they'll do that, then they need their heads read. You know what I mean. The "leaders" look after themselves first, and we who pay the taxes will come last.

It's always been that way and this will be no different.

I've written to a member here on ATS who is I feel especially knowledgeable about good preparation. I know some stuff, but at a time like this I'd like some advice.

So I hope he answers my U2U...

But yes, your points are perfectly valid. While the numbers can be important, they mainly tell us that if we live far enough away from the trouble zone now, then we are fortunate, because we still have time to prepare.

And we certainly shouldn't panic.

Mike


[edit on 7/11/09 by JustMike]

Originally posted by Joiner
Sorry, I don't have time to read new replies now. I would like to have just a general wiew of the outbreak as of now. Thanks.

Theres input from many people and sources as things are available.
Its easy to miss things which are forming the discussions-IMHO all the postings are worthy of reading-to stay in the loop.

reply to post by waterdoctor


getting back on this post that's exactly what i am talking about people preparing themselves the dam govt. is not going to do anything i was remarking about an earlier post by someone on a few threads back that was saying how great the govt. is who do they think is behind all this madness and vaccines?

reply to post by seattletruth


let me say to you seattle truth i don't know what your problem is and don't care let me repeat that my comments are LET M,E REPEAT THAT are in regards to ukraine all you do is bring on your remarks to me re my thoughts i wish i could convey my thoughts to you if you feel AGAIN that you are the sole intelligent species here figure it out for usseattle i ca't wait for your solution