Number of victims to unknown virus growing! State of emergency to be imposed in Ukraine?

reply to post by nikiano

Interesting post. Thank you.

I’d like to comment on the following part, but please bear in mind that I’m not shooting the messenger.

I found this:

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that between three and five million people worldwide get a serious case of the regular flu each year; tens of millions get milder cases. Between 250,000 and 500,000 people globally die of the flu every year.

I also found this fact:

in a normal year, influenza infects 20% of the population, and in an epidemic, it can infect 35%. (multiple sources)

Hard to argue with the WHO as those figures are pretty widely available, but I see some conflict in that second set of figures. Again, let me emphasize that this is no criticism of yourself, only of some of your sources.

An epidemic is simply an infectious disease that affects a significant percentage of a community or region at one time. I’d expect that you know this, but some members might not be sure about what it means. So, just to clarify, it does not have to mean that an entire nation or even a large region is affected. Whether or not the outbreak is defined as an epidemic by health authorities usually depends on the infection rate in that area/community, rather than on raw figures of infections versus the country’s entire population. Of course, if the epidemic spreads to all regions then national figures will apply.

This is why in Ukraine, although they have “an epidemic”, they also have regions which are still below the “epidemic threshold”, because the number of people infected as a percentage of those regions’ populations is still relatively low. So, it gets confusing. The country has “an epidemic”, but that doesn’t mean all of the country is fully in the grip of this epidemic. Not yet, anyway.

While it’s true that there are regional epidemics of seasonal flu every year, and in epidemics the infection rate can often be 10% - 20%, that’s a long way from saying that influenza infects 20% of the population in a normal year, which by implication means the whole population of a country (or the world). An infection rate of 20% in a defined region or community is an epidemic but your source implies it’s not, by continuing “…and in an epidemic…”.

Taking this from my local perspective, we get flu epidemics virtually every year. Last winter we had one in a major regional city in the country’s NE. Schools were closed there for a couple of weeks. But we didn’t have school closures here in Prague because while we had flu cases, they were not at a high enough level to warrant it. They were at sub-epidemic levels. So, it wasn't an epidemic of the whole population, just regional.

On the good side: the figures for the global pandemics that you quoted tally quite well with reliable sources and support the concept that pandemics occur at intervals. Also, when they arrive, they typically occur in “waves”, meaning that a pandemic doesn’t just come along for a few months and then disappear. It typically comes back again after a break, then can return yet again later. This is well on the cards for Ukraine, and more so if this new outbreak dramatically spreads further afield and is then determined to be pandemic in nature.

Best regards,

Mike

Edited for typos...

[edit on 7/11/09 by JustMike]

So Mike, this epidemic is hype? The numbers aren't matching the horror?

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan | U.S. military officials sent a medical team to a remote outpost in southern Afghanistan this week to take blood samples from members of an Army unit after a soldier in the unit died from an Ebola-like virus.
www.washingtontimes.com...

I would say this is definately a biological from the Taliban (aka AQ) and if they used them here it's all out everywhere since it's Islamic custom to martyr themselves.
Like an animal backed into a corner, if they are going out they are taking someone with them. (hello, Ft Hood)... anyway... I wonder if the reports from Ukraine match the ebola like symptoms in Afg?

If there are reports, eyewitness, of lungs melting and bleeding then we need to look beyond the region.

reply to post by JJay55


Hey JJay what about the post from settletruth and was it confirmed??

"According to the military, the bug the soldier got in Afghanistan is NOT unknown.. It's a crimean-congo bug.. Coincedentally it was discovered in Crimea (which HASN'T been hit by h1n1 OR the mystery bug)

The Crimean-Congo bug was transmitted by a flee bite on his foot.
I don't believe its an air-borne virus. Also the symptoms are much different (high fever). It's hemorrhagic FEVER. *Not* Hemorrhagic flu.

Dont freak out.. we only have unknown viruses in Ukraine, India, and possibly Oregon. The troops in Afghanistan are more worried riding in choppers, at this point in the war,"

Originally posted by JJay55
So Mike, this epidemic is hype? The numbers aren't matching the horror?

Hello JJay,

no, I don't think the Ukraine epidemic is hype and I hope that I didn't imply that. Besides Ukraine's own actions, the responses of surrounding and nearby countries clearly indicate that they are aware it's a serious matter.

As for the numbers, I'm just saying it's way too early for us to even assess them to any reliable extent. We won't know what the final outcome will be for some time yet. I would expect, though, that any numbers we are getting even now would be far from complete. This doesn't have to be sinister, though. It can be purely due to the enormous work loads the health professionals have, especially as many of their own are already sick.

In Lviv, for example, more than 14% of the population have already been infected -- 146,000 out of about 1 million inhabitants as of yesterday -- and that's just the reported cases, never mind those who have opted for home treatment and haven't visited a doctor at all.

Along with all this, we have to consider that among the office workers in the regional Govt departments where they are collating the figures to send to the Ministry of Health, they have the same problems and stresses: high rates of absenteeism, a degree of fear, overwork, tiredness...

So, we may not have anywhere near the true picture. But hype? No, it's not hyped. It's a real problem and it's far from over.

Best regards,

Mike

Originally posted by Cloudsinthesky
reply to post by JJay55

 

Hey JJay what about the post from settletruth and was it confirmed??

"According to the military, the bug the soldier got in Afghanistan is NOT unknown.. It's a crimean-congo bug.. Coincedentally it was discovered in Crimea (which HASN'T been hit by h1n1 OR the mystery bug)

The Crimean-Congo bug was transmitted by a flee bite on his foot.
I don't believe its an air-borne virus. Also the symptoms are much different (high fever). It's hemorrhagic FEVER. *Not* Hemorrhagic flu.

Dont freak out.. we only have unknown viruses in Ukraine, India, and possibly Oregon. The troops in Afghanistan are more worried riding in choppers, at this point in the war,"

I haven't looked into it. All I see is now 3 biologicals (that flea thing is BS) in strategically placed corners of the earth which makes me believe that we are depopulating. Since h1n1 didn't have a big enough impact or was a dry run, the other biologicals were released to do the trick. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a sharp increase in weirdo biologicals during Christmas when humans will be faced with migration decisions with their families. Add in terrorism and it's going to be a bumpy 2010.

As we have learned in this thread, we can't rely on media, we get good reports from eyewitnesses, the government lies (not because they are sinister, just because they are stupid), and we are on our own.

Putting it all together I have decided to limit travel, stock supplies for an emergency, stock supplies for an extended emergency, finalize emergency plans, and watch what happens.

reply to post by Cloudsinthesky

I know you addressed your query to JJay but I hope she won't mind if I answer as well...

I posted about this a couple pages back. The Crimea (where that bug was first found) is part of Ukraine.

The post (with linked map) is HERE

Regards,

Mike

Originally posted by JustMike
I'm just saying it's way too early for us to even assess them to any reliable extent.
Mike

Ok, thanks for clearing that up.
But this "way too early" thing has me bothered. I'm not going to wait much longer to make my decisions... while the numbers are crunched. I can see clearly the situation is dire. So while the other sleep I will prepare and do it quickly. I estimate we have about 6 weeks until the headlines reflect biologicals. That's a long time... anyone want to speculate on what the world will look like in 6 weeks? Just in time for Christian holiday (not 911 this time) Christmas?

reply to post by JJay55


Not to get off topic here on this thread, but I do agree with your theory but keep in mind they are not going to release anything that could potentially take out those who "released" the bio weapon.....

Thats why I am very focused on the vaccine...........As those Global who are pushing for all of us to take it.......

reply to post by JustMike

Silly me. I'm thinking Crimea is in Africa. Thanks for the geography lesson.
Then this doesn't look good at all. eek.

reply to post by JJay55

I share your concerns. When I said "way too early" I was speaking from the detached, statistical point of view. I try to do that mainly because of where I live. This is going on half-a-day's drive from where I'm sitting right now. If it hasn't already got here yet, that is.

Speaking from my gut feelings, I don't like the look of this at all. I don't need dry statistics to tell me that this is a bad situation. We only have to consider previous pandemics to see what can happen.

EDIT to add:
reply to post by JJay55

That's okay. Like I said a few pages back, if you don't live in Europe it's not surprising if you don't know where Crimea is. Even lots of folks here probably won't know off the top of their heads.

It's a lovely region for vacations, too. But not right now, though...

Regards,

Mike



[edit on 7/11/09 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike


Thanks JustMke..............I do follow the thread very closely (as you can see from some ealier problems I posted about) and I have been keeping my speculations and theories to myself until more intel from posters like yourself give details.........

Yep, I jumped in this am without reading a couple pages....lol

So thanks, keep up the great intel .........

[edit on 7-11-2009 by Cloudsinthesky]

Originally posted by Cloudsinthesky
reply to post by JJay55

 

Not to get off topic here on this thread, but I do agree with your theory but keep in mind they are not going to release anything that could potentially take out those who "released" the bio weapon.....

Thats why I am very focused on the vaccine...........As those Global who are pushing for all of us to take it.......

Vaccines are a government obligation. They are doing their best to save lives because taxpayers keep governments running. Nothing sinister here.

Biologicals are used by criminals. And there is a major organization of criminals in AQ. They have been working on consolidating gangs all around the world to be part of their network. Even IRA guys and MS13. They have infiltrated all US prisons and are very very organized. These criminal are the best in the world and have skills that you wouldn't believe. They could easily carry out 911's x12 and a biological meltdown. But this raises 2 important questions.
1. Who gave the word to release biologicals.
2. What will be the impact.

First, the responsibility and tipping point. Khomeni just gave the word last week to all muslims to fard ayn. That's why Ft Hood and other incidents like this will follow. This is a smoke screen for something bigger. But when H1N1 was released it was when Obama talked in Egypt. What happened behind closed doors in that visit was the tipping point. Deals with TPTB. The outcome was already predetermined.
Second, impact... it's going to be bad.

reply to post by Cloudsinthesky

Thank you. There's been a lot of good info in this thread. Now I'd like to present some that I prepared earlier today.

In a recent post I mentioned how pandemics come in “waves”. Now, I’m not the first to talk about this phenomenon in this thread, but I repeated it to allay the suspicions of members who might be concerned by statements from the WHO and various other “Health Authorities”, who told us months ago (last winter) that this pandemic would come back again in the Fall, which apparently it has. They said this because studies of past flu pandemics have shown this is the way they work. For any members who are interested, here is a link to a chart from the New England Journal of Medicine that shows the “waves” of four pandemics for the past 100-odd years:

Chart Showing Pandemic Waves

The article from which the above chart is sourced can be found HERE.

Please note that the chart is for the percentage of total mortality in that pandemic in that defined region. I wouldn’t want people thinking, for example, that 10% of London’s population died of flu in Jan to March, 1890. They didn’t. It means that 10% of the total who died in that pandemic, were lost in that stated period.

The chart is significant not only because it illustrates the “waves” but also because it shows that it’s not possible to predict if the majority of deaths will occur in the first wave or the second, or even the third. I recall seeing posts on this thread that imply “the second wave will be worse”, but frankly that’s not borne out by historical studies as always being true. While the second wave is often worse than the first, it doesn‘t have to be: in the US during the pandemic from 1957-1963, the first wave was actually the worst one. The fact of the matter is that while pandemics typically occur in waves, we have no real way of knowing which one will be the most lethal.

However, they are all lethal to some extent. That’s something we have to accept as true. It matters very little if an individual pandemic wave gets classified as a “minor” one because only claimed 5% of the total victims, if you or yours were among those 5%…

For those who can’t access the chart for some reason, or perhaps have trouble interpreting it, I’ve written up the data. Took an age to set them up so I hope they'll display ok. Notes: Dates and durations are approximate. The year dates in each title refer to the global dates for that pandemic, which do not always coincide with the regional dates.

Total Deaths (%)...Wave….Duration in Months………….Dates

London: Pandemic of 1889 -- 1892
10%……………………..1st………………….3.……………………Jan to March 1890
45%……………………..2nd…………………4.…………………April 1891 to July 1891
45% …………………….3rd………….………5.…………………Dec 1891 to April 1892

Copenhagen: Pandemic of 1918 -- 1919
This pandemic had three waves, but while the first was short and relatively “minor”, the second and third were long, run into each other, and had two distinct peak periods of mortality.
5%……………………..1st………………….2.…………………..July 1918 to Aug 1918
60% ……………………2nd………...…..…4.…………….Early Sept 1918 to Dec 1918
35%…………………….3rd………..……….4.…………………..Jan 1919 to April 1919

United States: Pandemic of 1957 -- 1963
This pandemic had three very distinct waves, with “quiet” periods in between.
43%…………………….1st………………….9.………………….Sept 1957 to May 1958
28%…………………….2nd…………………5.………………….Dec 1959 to April 1960
29%…………………….3rd…………….……6.………………..Nov 1962 to April 1963

England and Wales: Pandemic of 1968 -- 1970
This pandemic had only two waves, with quite a long break between them. But the statistics are very sobering. This was a pandemic where the second wave was far worse than the first one:
15%……………………..1st…………………4.………..………….Jan 1968 to April 1968
85%…………………..…2nd……….…..….4.…………Mid-Nov 1968 to Mid-Feb 1969

Relating this data to the current situation in Ukraine and surrounding regions, we can only say that if the infection is classified as pandemic in nature then it will return later. How much later, we just don’t know. Whether it will be more lethal or less, we also don’t know. It’s still too early to even assess the true mortality rate. We will only find that out in some months from now -- if we ever get the full figures at all, that is.

Whatever the final numbers are I expect that they will be grim reading.

Mike
Edited to fix a couple of typos. Please forgive any I missed.

[edit on 7/11/09 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike


According to Dr. Nimian, who is tracking H1N1 incidents around the world, and who is in contact with the various government agencies who report these incidents, the reporting agency in the Ukraine, which keeps track of the numbers has a staff of exactly 1 person. The staff may have been expanded in recent days, but at the start of the outbreak, only one person was keeping track. So it should come as no suprise if the reported numbers are somewhat off.

[edit on 7-11-2009 by Angiras]

Ok, so we know it's grim, so what can we do about minimizing that in our personal lives?
I like awareness. An accurate report of what's out there. In the old days HAM radio was the way of communication. Now we have a forum and mike and asen for first hand reports.
When I was in Hurricane Andrew all communication was shut down, the only was I knew what was going on was with face to face communication. The National Guard provided an eye in the sky and they walked the neighborhoods with info.

Emergency supply prep is a given. But the choice of place of residence is important. Does your home provide protection from the immigration path? I saw this in another thread on this forum. Immigration could bring millions past your door. In that migration are you safe?
Will you choose to stay in location? Does it have resources you need? Fun things to consider.

heh. I'm in survival mode.

RSOE Emergency and Disaster Information Service
Budapest, Hungary

Official: Ukrainian Election May Be Postponed Due To Swine Flu
2009-11-07 14:03:56 Ukraine

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko is considering postponing the country\'s
presidential election scheduled for January due to the spread of swine flu in the
country.

The deputy head of Yushchenko\'s secretariat, Ihor Popov, made the announcement on
November 6, saying "if the government fails to control the situation" with
the flu epidemic the poll could be pushed back until the end of May. Health
officials in Ukraine said that 109 people have died from the flu epidemic, though
only 14 of those were confirmed to have contacted swine flu. Nationwide, some
763,000 people are reported ill with flu and respiratory infections.

reply to post by Angiras

Yes, and that's a typical example of a lack of preparedness. One person is fine when nothing much is happening, but considering there were forecasts for pandemic, the govt there should have increased the staff to several more than one. But they didn't.

Makes me wonder what my own country's govt is doing. I know someone in their Office of Statistics so I'll find out...

Also, that person was collating the reports sent in from various regions. They would also be struggling to keep up as very likely, they were also understaffed even before this all began. So the figures are very unlikely to reflect the full extent of the situation.

Even so, they're ominous.

Mike

This morning I was channel surfing and stopped at CNN to hear a doctor state that the H1N1, was called the NOVEL H1N1. Now that doctor was basically implying that the flu was always listed as NOVEL. This is the first time I have ever heard that. I may be wrong. But, if not, might this now be the cover story to mask the reality of a mutated flu? Might they be saying novel to maintain that it is the same flu and stop people from realizing it has changed ?
Elienne

H1N1 has been around for quite some time. The strain that started in Mexico is indeed Novel in that it has some unique genomes. It may just be scientific lingo to which the scientist is accustomed.