Multipal Solar Storms Coming Our Way This Weekend

I just received a text from my sister telling me there is potential for moderate to severe solar storms coming this way this weekend. According to reports there have been 3 or 4 flairs in the past few days that are directed toward earth, supposed to hit this weekend. I don't expect anything really serious but I know virtually nothing about this subject.

I am surprised no one here has already posted about this so I'll post info from SpaceWeatherLive and let someone here explain it all to me.

Spaceweather Live

Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2024
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 09/0913Z from Region 3664 (S19W34). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be high on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 09/0019Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1816Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 199 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 May), active to severe storm levels on day two (11 May) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (12 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
Class M 95% 95% 95%
Class X 60% 60% 60%
Proton 50% 50% 50%
PCAF green

Does anybody see anything to worry about here?

Newsweek

Sun Fires 'Solar Storm Train' at Earth—Three Direct Hits for Weekend
particularly volatile sunspot has sent a series of solar storms surging toward the Earth, many of which are due to hit in the next few days.

Sunspot AR3663 released five plumes of solar plasma—coronal mass ejections, or CMEs—in the past day, with the second, third, and fifth being forecast to slam directly into our planet this weekend.

This could lead to "strong" geomagnetic storms in our magnetic field and atmosphere, which could result in auroras being seen as far south as Illinois and Oregon.
"It's a #solarstorm train! We now have FIVE storms headed towards Earth! Storm 2, 3, and 5 will be direct hits as seen in the coronagraph imagery. Impacts start around midday May 10 and will continue through late May 12 at least. G3-level conditions & extended #aurora possible," space weather physicist Tamitha Skov posted to X, formerly known as Twitter, early on Thursday morning.

a reply to: charlest2

That doesn't look too bad.

There's a website where you can view the flares and CME's taken from the SOHO telescopes, but I've forgotten what it is. A quick Google search should find it though.

I check Space weather daily. Looks like there will be G4 storms. It also looks like there is a cycle or patern to the pulses and if it holds, there should be another X flare shortly.

Am I worried? Not really, we did have a transformer blow in Negaunee one time years ago when there was a big solar event. It knocked out power in Canada around that time too. Our power was not effected much, from the Board of power and light, and I am not aware of any other locallities having issues with power problems. So was it just a coincidence? Could be that it was an older transformer and it was worn out enough that a surge from the power lines caused it to go bad...or it could have had nothing to do with the big CME. Locally, people from the power company said it may be related but were not quite sure if the solar flare had anything to do with it.

A G4 is strong enough to cause power outages in high lattitudes.

a reply to: SchrodingersRat

Is it this site?
www.spaceweatherlive.com...

a reply to: rickymouse

So you're saying we should keep a weather eye, pun intended, on this particular activity and anticipate more possible activity from it?

a reply to: tarantulabite1
Yes! click on reports at the top banner. My bad! I didn't see your post was directed to someone else.

Did you save your solar eclipse glasses?

a reply to: TheMichiganSwampBuck

Yes. Thanks for reminding me.

originally posted by: tarantulabite1
a reply to: SchrodingersRat

Is it this site?
www.spaceweatherlive.com...

Here is the one I go to all the time. spaceweather.com...

On the left there is a box with X-ray solar storms and a blue link in that box for more data you can click on. It shows you some daily data and I usually check that out when I see larger flares. If you scroll down, you can also see space weather forecasts, this weekend high lattitudes will be having a ninety percent chance of severe storms. We will be checking out the sky here if it is clear on Friday and Saturday night.

There is also data on asteroids there with clickable links on each asteroid. I go to that sight mostly to see chances of northern lights or meteor showers. Not for doom and gloom.

a reply to: charlest2

Network news mentioned that Northern Lights might be visible in some of the lower 48 states this weekend.

2nd.

I really like this channel on YT.
m.youtube.com...

a reply to: charlest2
youtu.be...

a reply to: 727Sky

Looks like it maybe possibly, could, by perchance get dicey?

The Cannibal CME is expected to arrive on May 11th. It alone could spark a strong (G3) geomagnetic storm. With two more CMEs following close behind, storm levels could become extreme (G4), sparking auroras at mid- to low-latitudes across Europe and the USA.

I wouldn't exactly call it a nothing burger. Things could get a little exciting but I hope not. I'm planning on starting my garden and having a brewski.....or two.


Thanks for the heads up.

YAY!! Northern Lights! I've never seen them. Every time they are happening it's been cloudy or I've just slept through them and not known about them. Maybe this time it'll be different. Im' already 61 years old so I'm getting old and running out of time to be able to see them. I really wanna' see them ....

a reply to: FlyersFan

The Northern Lights are an experience you don't want to miss in your lifetime. They are not what you expect...at all, really. The first time I ever saw them I was salmon fishing on the Kenai river in Alaska. I think it was June. It was starting to get dusk, and I was getting hungry (I had no idea it was really 1am in the morning). Then I detected something which was bothering me, but I couldn't figure out what it was...until I looked up. At first I thought it was thin clouds, but clouds don't move like that. The entire sky was writhing back and forth in shades of brilliant green and blue, whipping around to and fro. It was utterly spectacular! I'd always heard about the Northern Lights, and I'd seen pictures, but pictures don't move either. It was the movement which was so striking, the movement and the ever changing intensity. Totally unexpected, and breathtaking.

I honestly wondered for a moment if I should be afraid, I'd never seen a phenomenon like that in the sky before. I was alone on a river in remote southern Alaska and I really had no idea what was happening at first. The speed at which the tails of the aurora whipped around was startling, like it could reach down and touch you at any second. As my mind reeled trying to digest what my eyes were seeing, I put 2+2 together and realized what I was witnessing was the Northern Lights. Wow...how cool! I'd never been that far north before, so it made sense.

On a comical note, shortly afterwards I remarked about them to my then brother in law (an Alaskan native). He smiled wryly and pointed over my shoulder..."Look! An EAGLE!"...he said. I looked, but I didn't see an eagle.

It wasn't until years later that I 'got' the inside joke.

a reply to: charlest2

I think I am going to hid under the bed

Tell me when its over .........

Our power grid is mostly protected against events like this. Could provide a nice light show though. Auroras should be visible further south than they usually are. The map I saw yesterday said it might be visible in Pennsylvania, where I live. Unfortunately it's gonna be cloudy. I've seen the aurora plenty of times though when I was stationed in Alaska.

I hope it doesn't cause too much trouble because I'm going on holiday to Cyprus on Sunday. So if they drop a big one on Gaza I could see the mushroom cloud from there.

a reply to: FlyersFan

I got my chance to see them when I was stationed in Iceland back in the early 70's. They are a sight to see.


Actually, I think as much or even more so than a solar eclipse. Truly a fascinating experience.