Number of victims to unknown virus growing! State of emergency to be imposed in Ukraine?

reply to post by nikiano


The word on catching the flu to get immunity is that it's a waste of time (according to Dr Niman and other health professionals). Unfortunately it looks like people who catch mild cases of H1N1 do not develop an immunity to it.

There have been numerous reports of people getting a mild case and then getting the flu again later. My understanding is that this is not abnormal for flu and is seen in seasonal flu's every year.

[edit on 7-11-2009 by ecoparity]

The number of infected people in the Ukraine shot up to 764000 since about two days
ago. They have all fallen ill with the "flu and acute respiratory infections", 34000
have been hospitalised claims Olexander Bilovol. The flu AND respiratory deaths
jumped up to 109 people and only 14 of those linked to swine flu according to health
officials. The World Health Organisation however said that more people could be
infected with h1n1. It is still unclear whether most people are infected with h1n1
or the viral pneumonic plague or as some claim it is the same thing (although the
one is a virus and the other one a bacteria). So far evidence shows that this is a
pneumonic plague mostly as well as h1n1 infecting people at the same time. the WHO
is still to confirm whether the it is a normal h1n1 or if it has mutated into a
different h1n1 than seen in the US and Uk like the president of the Ukraine claimed
this week.


This is an update from RSOE Emergency Disaster and Information services I received this morning. Sounds serious to me.

reply to post by JustMike


I agree with that. I'm not arguing about the close to a million infected. I'm talking about the few who were first reported to have pneumonic plague or whatever was "melting" their lungs. Maybe the flu has kicked up a notch but (maybe, I'm totally wrong here. I'm under the impression there were only, at most, a couple of handfuls with bloody lungs) but maybe those few with the hardcore symptoms died of Crimean-Congo fever....
Or, maybe not....

Originally posted by really
reply to post by waterdoctor

 

Thanks, man. I appreciate the honesty. Either way, 10 days to spread to the amount of people it spread to here in 10 weeks is big news. Even if the virus hasn't become more powerful (in the percentage of infected killed) just the higher numbers and quicker infection rate will end up killing more people as hospitals won't be able to keep up.

Thanks, if you have the time you might go back and read some of me earlier posts. I have been saying that the rate of infection was something not observed in other countries and that I was concerned about a mutation that would increase transmissablilty. 30% of the population getting sick over 12 to 16 weeks with a one week recovery is one thing. 30% of the population getting sick in 3 weeks with a two week recovery is something all together different even if fewer people die. And you are completely right in the part about hospitals being over run with the sick. We have, here where I live, about 12 reperator/ventilators for 20,000 people. If you use the numbers coming out of the Ukraine if we get hit hard then 6000 will get sick, about 200 will need to go to the hospital and 15 to 20 will need to be on ventilators. I hope that this would be worst case however it is within the statistical probability.

Originally posted by JustMike

Also, please don't take my comments as any criticism of yourself. I don't mean them that way. It's good to put our thoughts out here and let others comment on them.

HA!! Not at all, man. We're just talking, sharing articles and speculating here. I appreciate your contributions to the thread (Seriously) and if you think one of my ideas is bogus, say it. It's all good.

The rate of infection in Ukraine is high but some of it is not exactly what it looks like. The testing of samples and confirmation of them means that people who were sick weeks ago are just now being confirmed and added to the pile.

What we'll see are large jumps in the numbers of infected and dead as a lot of people are confirmed and added all at once to the statistics.

The back end reports had listed 100 deaths already back when this thread first began and the official number was less than 20. That's how far behind they were. Ukraine had only 200 to 2000 test kits (depending on who you listen to) and the lab tests take time to perform (with no lab in country until this past week but at least the lab tests are accurate. The quick tests are less than fifty percent accurate).

The number of infected is high but the infections actually took place over the past two months so the reports "look" worse than they are (and they "are" pretty bad anyway).

reply to post by really


The swine flu causes hemorrhagic fever in the worst cases so the symptoms described about bleeding and "melting" lungs do fit with the virus, (in addition to the numerous other symptoms which are just as bad).

I posted a Ukraine news interview with an ER Dr there who confirmed that they have not seen any cases of bubonic plague which is the precursor to pneumonic plague and that the number of dead would be astronomically higher given the number of infected.

One interesting item that ties into insect bite diseases, during WW2 the Japanese experimented with and used bio-warfare weapons which included a bomb that "dropped" plague infected fleas. They used them against the Chinese with some success along with putting cholera in water wells.

Modern bio-weapons use modified pathogens designed to be breathed in or infect by skin contact. Though we don't use flea bombs anymore a terrorist group certainly might given they could do it without needing all the advanced technology the modern versions use.

There was an incident where a bio lab was found in a cave in Afghanistan / Pakistan where plague infected fleas had infected the terrorists working there and killed them.

Not that we're seeing the plague in Ukraine, I agree the facts just don't fit that being the case but it is interesting and worth noting.

reply to post by ecoparity


there is a possible reason why you don't get immunity for the H1N1 if you get it --- it's man-made, and designed to mutate so there isn't any chance of immunity.

which also means that getting the shot is a waste of time....

Originally posted by ecoparity

The number of infected is high but the infections actually took place over the past two months so the reports "look" worse than they are (and they "are" pretty bad anyway).

Very interesting. But, would that also mean that if people in the Ukraine are still being infected that the hospitals in the Ukraine haven't yet been able to check them for infection? In other words, if they are just now able to get some date from two months ago wouldn't it be some time before the numbers of infected now were counted?

reply to post by really


We have the number of infected but not confirmed and then number infected and confirmed with lab tests.

None of the people listed as infected at this point are considered to be tested apparently. They set up a lab in Ukraine with the equipment / materials needed and started testing all the samples gathered from before.

At some point in the last week they stopped adding people who reported to a Dr with flu symptoms to the total. At that point they began adding tested and positive.

It doesn't matter, in a day or two they'll claim there is no need to test anyone except hospital cases and they will count everyone with flu symptoms as being infected. People with mild or non hospitalized cases will be "assumed" to have swine flu once again. The WHO can fudge the stats much better when testing is not required.

The number of dead is really the key to the stats jumping. Every death is supposed to be tested and confirmed before being added, that's why we had over 100 that have been added little by little even though they died weeks ago. The real number of dead is probably a lot higher.

I should have been more clear on that. The stats jumping up will be something seen from a week ago on. Before that the number infected and dead were added because the Dr said they would be.

From here on deaths will be test confirmed, infected (the biggest number) will be considered to be not tested and another number will appear, probably much lower. This is how Mexico went from 400 plus to a dozen overnight.

I wish the WHO wouldn't play with the stats because it kills any credibility they have. That credibility issue is quite possibly killing people now.

The Ukrainian Situation Day by Day

In an effort to help members to be better informed, I have collated some of the key daily reported figures released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Health on their own website. This gives us a clearer picture of what appears to be going on in respect of the infection’s spread.

I hope that this will be useful to some of you and also will be a single reference point if you require it. For this reason, I provide the direct links to the Ukrainian Ministry of Health’s website for each day’s data.

Information about persons ill with ARI / flu as of 16:00 29.10.2009 (Document ID 13927)
Districts reporting…………….. …….3
Total infected…………………. 37,923
Hospitalized……………………….951
Deaths reported……………………..30

Operational information about the incidence of ARI / flu (as of 10:00, 30.10.2009) (Document ID 13940)
Districts reporting……………..……10
Total infected…………………..81,487
Hospitalized……………………..2,341
Deaths reported……………………..33

Operational information about the incidence of ARI / flu (as of 9:00, 31.10.2009) (Document ID 13941)
Districts reporting……………..……27 [Five have zero cases reported.]
Total infected…………………165,192 [No totals on site’s chart. I did them.]
Hospitalized……………………..5,239 [No totals on site’s chart. …Ditto……]
Deaths reported……………………..39 [No totals on site’s chart. …Ditto.…]

Information on the incidence of influenza, acute respiratory infections and their complications (pneumonia, etc.) at 17-00 hours. November 1, 2009 (Document ID 13948)
Districts reporting……………..……27 [One has zero cases reported.]
Total infected………………….191431
Hospitalized……………………..7,524
Deaths reported……………………..60

Note: also refer to Operational information about the incidence of ARI / flu as of 1/11/2009 (Document ID 13943) which by its figures and ID number was prepared a little earlier that day but actually released later.

Information on the incidence of influenza, acute respiratory infections and their complications (pneumonia, etc.) at 17-00 hours. 2/11/2009 was (Document ID 13969)
Districts reporting……………..……27 [One district still reports zero cases.]
Total infected…………………255,516
Hospitalized……………………15,810
Deaths reported……………………..70

Note: Also refer to Information on the incidence of influenza, acute respiratory infections and their complications (pneumonia, etc.) at 8-00 hr. November 2, 2009 (Document ID 13950) which was prepared earlier and has very similar figures, but was released later.

and

Information on the incidence of influenza, acute respiratory infections and their complications (pneumonia, etc.) at 22-00 hours. November 2, 2009 (Document ID 13973) which is actually identical to Doc ID 13969 released for 1700 Hrs, but simply has a different document number.

Information on the incidence of influenza and acute respiratory infections and their complications (pneumonia, etc.) at 01:00 on November 4, 2009 (Document ID 13995)
Districts reporting……………..……27 [Epidemic levels in 9 regions. No “zero” reports.]
Total infected…………………478,456
Hospitalized……………………24,003
Deaths reported……………………..81

Information on the incidence of influenza and acute respiratory infections and their complications (pneumonia, etc.) at the "05 November 2009 (Document ID 14008)
Districts reporting……………..……27 [Epidemic levels in 9 regions.]
Total infected…………………762,835
Hospitalized……………………33,979
Deaths reported……………………109

Information on the incidence of influenza and acute respiratory infections and their complications (pneumonia, etc.) as "06" November 2009 (Document ID 14023)
Districts reporting……………..……27 [Epidemic levels in 14 regions.]
Total infected……………...….871,037
Hospitalized……………………39,603
Deaths reported……………………135

Comments: we do not have data yet for Nov 7, but we can take a guess that the number infected will be around one million. That is a staggering figure to reach in such a relatively short time.

Several other districts will probably be at epidemic levels within 24 hours.

The confusion with posting data -- out of sequence charts, dual postings and so forth -- is not to be unexpected under the circumstances where the small number of people involved in their collation are probably stressed and tired. In fact it’s symptomatic of it.

The data show a worrying trend. Even if the figures are perhaps not complete or accurate, the trend cannot be denied.

I am aware that I could have posted more details but these are fundamental ones at least. As I said, I hope it’s of value to some members.

Mike

EDIT: Now have data for Nov 7:

Information on the incidence of influenza and acute respiratory infections and their complications (pneumonia, etc.) as "07" November 2009 (Document ID 14024)
Districts reporting……………..……27 [Epidemic levels in 19 regions]
Total infected…………………936,804
Hospitalized……………………..43,762
Deaths reported……………………144

Comments: The figure is closing in on 1 million. Considering the difficulties they have there at present we could expect that not all districts are reporting accurately or fully, and the collation team may be struggling as well. There is evidence for this in the charts referenced above and members can find examples as they peruse them.

End of edit.

[edit on 7/11/09 by JustMike]

Originally posted by ecoparity
This is how Mexico went from 400 plus to a dozen overnight.

Deaths are occurring again in Mexico.

The other part of your post, regarding stats and a higher death toll is significant: Remember, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 was placed - officially - at 15 million. However, unofficial accounts (and the Red Cross) reported millions more - some suggested even 100 million died world wide.

reply to post by Lolliek


You can get seasonal flu more than once so not getting immunity from a mild case is not something "new" with swine flu.

A lot of the repeat infection stories describe getting sick two or three times with it in a short amount of time. It's possible those people never fully recovered and just had a very long infection that grew worse as time passed.

The vaccines are tested be thousands of researchers outside the vaccine makers. I can't promise you they will work but I'm not so worried about it or that they are tainted because of the huge number of people who would have to keep quiet about it.

Of course those people are not opposed to vaccines so if you have concerns about them in general, the mercury or whatever they aren't exactly on the same side of the issue. I can't say for sure a mutation hasn't occurred in Ukraine or India and don't know how that impacts the vaccines. As always I think each person has to make that choice for themselves (and hopefully no one will try to force anyone to take them).

reply to post by JustMike


Some reports suggest the death troll is near 200 - 250+ - we'll have to wait for the official data (probably tomorrow) to confirm.

Deaths across parts of Europe have risen sharply - UK is over 150 (20 more victims in the last two days)

reply to post by infinite


Infinite, where are you looking for your data? Just curious. I have friends there and I'm starting to become mildly obsessed about tracking this. Thanks.

ecoparity and justmike, thanks for all the info.

reply to post by infinite

It could even be higher. I just thought it useful to have all the most fundamental information to date gathered together in one post... The fact is that we will not even see the full lethality of presently-infected cases for weeks yet. It's even possible that most of those who've passed away were ones who were infected two weeks ago or longer.

Right now, it's just a data resource and a useful record just in case those Ministry numbers happen to "change" or "disappear". That's why I'm hoping some members will check the links and satisfy themselves that my posted figures tally with the Ministry's.

Best regards and now I'm taking a break,

Mike

reply to post by really


I'm on numerous sites, a few contacts and foreign media outlets.

flutracker.rhizalabs.com...

Originally posted by really
reply to post by infinite

 

Infinite, where are you looking for your data? Just curious. I have friends there and I'm starting to become mildly obsessed about tracking this. Thanks.

ecoparity and justmike, thanks for all the info.

Don't get too wrapped up in the daily counts. I made that mistake early on during the Mexico outbreak.

The stats are great for looking back after the fact to see what happened but because they do not adhere to "time" accurately using them for current events can look scarier than they are.

If you notice the number of districts reporting goes up with each report so we have sudden dumping of new cases. We don't know "when" those cases took place though. They could be a month old or maybe more. After Mexico we found out the first cases were two months old already.

The best thing to do is just be prepared. Make sure you have food and supplies and can sustain life without power and outside water / gas, etc for at least three weeks, (three months is better if not more).

That way it doesn't matter what happens, you can relax knowing you're prepared no matter what.

ETA: if you have friends there you're worried about consider shipping them a big box of masks, gloves and anything else they might need. Getting even OTC meds and alternative treatments is difficult right now.


[edit on 7-11-2009 by ecoparity]

reply to post by infinite


Thanks, infinite.
second line.
3rd line.

Have you guys seen this yet?

"A University of Chicago researcher died Sun., Sept. 13, at the Medical Center's Bernard Mitchell Hospital from an infection which may be attributable to a weakened laboratory strain of Yersinia pestis, the bacteria that causes the plague."

news.uchicago.edu...

The symptoms reported sure sound like this. Just FYI.