Number of victims to unknown virus growing! State of emergency to be imposed in Ukraine?

I know the recent number of sick and dead has been posted but here is a story with another interesting highlight in bold:

Ukraine flu death toll rises to 81

KIEV, November 4 (RIA Novosti) - A total of 81 people have died of influenza-like diseases in Ukraine, the country's chief sanitary doctor Oleksandr Bilovol said on Wednesday.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said on Tuesday 71 people have died of acute respiratory illness in the country. The health ministry said on Monday 255,000 flu cases had been reported in the country, with 15,000 receiving treatment in hospital.

"Over 478,000 people have fallen ill, 81 died," Bilovol said.

He said 14 confirmed swine flu cases have been registered in the country and three of them have been fatal.

About 12 million people, or a quarter of Ukraine's population, are expected to contract influenza-like diseases during the current outbreak.

"Up to 1% of them will be hospitalized, about 18,000 will be taken to intensive care," he said, without providing any forecast of fatalities.

President Viktor Yuschenko has requested help from other countries over the outbreak. The government has imposed quarantines in nine western provinces to curb the spread of swine flu, which originated in the Tirnopol Region.

All education establishments in the capital, Kiev, were closed on Monday until further notice due to the flu pandemic. Wearing medical masks has been a must in all catering places, shops and social services facilities across Ukraine since Friday.

en.rian.ru...

I don't know what basis the health ministry had for making such projections of expected cases. I also don't think it is a good idea for them to make such projections, especially since they still do not have a grasp on the current situation. Also it appears that geographical spread of the flu cases has not changed much. Eastern Ukraine is still largely spared, and there is a limited number of cases in Kiev.



Also reported a spike in cold and flu cases in Moscow, Russia. However nobody is alarmed and the government is treating this as part of regular seasonal flu not necessarily associated with H1N1.

MOSCOW, November 3 (Itar-Tass) -- The cold and flu rate in Moscow twice exceeds the epidemic level, the city department of the Federal Consumer Rights and Human Well Being Service said on Tuesday.

A total of 166,000 Muscovites, 105,700 of them children, contracted the infection over the past week. The sickness rate grew 57.2% as compared to the previous week or 2.6 times exceeded last year’s indicator. A total of 2,308 patients, among them 1,276 children, were hospitalized. Regular and A/H1N1 flu makes up 3.4% of all cases.

City residents are being inoculated against regular flu. As of November 2, the inoculation had been given to almost 1.7 million, including 848,100 children.

www.itar-tass.com...

Even China cannot contain a virus like this.

I really do not see how any governmental agency could possibly be expected to contain it.

reply to post by maloy


About a third of the planet can be expected to catch it over the course of the various "waves."

Originally posted by Aeons
About a third of the planet can be expected to catch it over the course of the various "waves."

Who's going to do the math on this one? Where's Mike???
That might just fix the economic problem we are in...

reply to post by JJay55

I see the point in your opening question, but as there are doubtless already thousands who've left (including by planes, which have all been full -- and yes, they are still flying in out), then his leaving at this stage will make scant difference, really. Even the WHO's experts said that containment is not possible now. Ukraine shares borders with several countries and leaving is still not difficult, so if it's going to spread then it's too late to do a great deal about it.

Now it's "protection and precautions" time.

If our friend Asen had tried to leave in the first hours, then that would have been different. But now, with local hospitals apparently full and only 7 (or less?) of the 200 students in his hostel still there, he's better off getting out of there. It's been several days now since the outbreak was officially reported and by now, there will be people all over the place who've left Ukraine, even on normal business or leisure travel.

If I were him I'd probably want to get out too.

Just my take on it. No criticism of your own words intended.

By the way, just exchanged a couple of text messages with asen. He seems in pretty good spirits and I would think is glad to be getting out what is a virtual prison. Can confirm he's leaving tomorrow (Thurs).

Regards,

Mike

I saw 86 now confirmed.
The first deaths have been confirmed in Kiev also.2 dead with 90 mill.

Death toll rises to 86 in Ukraine flu epidemic

(AFP) – 6 hours ago

KIEV — Eighty-six people have died in Ukraine from flu and respiratory infections, the health ministry said Wednesday, in an epidemic the World Health Organisation said could be largely due to the A(H1N1) virus.

The ministry said that almost half a million cases of flu and acute respiratory infections had been recorded since mid-October in the country of 46 million, while 24,000 people have been hospitalised.

Some 148,000 cases have been recorded in the past 24 hours, it added.



from Kiev Post.

[edit on 4-11-2009 by martin3030]

[edit on 4-11-2009 by martin3030]

[edit on 4-11-2009 by martin3030]

sorry mill should read ill (above) it wont let me edit !!

An article about a political spin to the this event, related to the upcoming elections, and might point to how the disease spread (although this is far from factual at this point - and seems more like propaganda):

Yuschenko Accuses Timoshenko in Holding a Rally During Flu Epidemic

The article is in Russian however. Here is a basic summary:

Ukrainian President Yuschenko filed a criminal complaint with General Prosecutor associated with a recent political rally in Kiev, in the midst of a flu epidemic.

According to Yuschenko the epidemic started on October 20, when schools were quarantined in Ternopol city. However on October 24, Timoshenko's party organized a protest in Timoshenko's support in Kiev, where thousands of people were in attendance. Among the participants were those from the area where the epidemic started.

Yuschenko also blames the head sanitarian doctor of the country, and "politicians who in seeking political gain did not mind the danger". The President compared Timoshenko's rally to the infamous May Day Parade held in Kiev in 1986 after the Chernobyl accident.

...

Confirmed number deaths at this point is 81, while unconfirmed is 93.

So already political mud slinging associated with this is in full swing. And Yuschenko is not helping his country by making rather absurd accusations. The Ukrainian government itself was not yet aware of the epidemic on October 24. Accusing the rally participants of spreading it is idiotic.

You know, I'm not saying that what is happening in the Ukraine is not bad but it really doesn't seem horrible. It is not a 'Captain Tripps' scenario (The Stand - Stephen King). At least, it doesn't seem to be. It just seem like a very contagious flu.
The WHO changed the definition of 'pandemic' and now almost anything can be a pandemic:

As of this year, the WHO defines a pandemic as occurring “when an animal influenza virus to which most humans have no immunity acquires the ability to cause sustained chains of human-to-human transmission leading to community-wide outbreaks. Such a virus has the potential to spread worldwide, causing a pandemic.”

Dr. Gross says the new definition could lead to false alarms and that “any minor change, any minor drift could be considered a pandemic.”

www.theglobeandmail.com...

GENEVA -- Britain, Japan and other nations urged the World Health Organization today to change the way it decides to declare a pandemic -- saying the agency must consider how deadly the virus is, not just how fast it is spreading.

The debate arose as WHO began its annual meeting, a five-day event attended by hundreds of health experts from the agency's 193 member nations. Swine flu is expected to dominate this year's conference -- and WHO must consider whether it should raise its alert level or tell manufacturers to begin making a specific swine flu vaccine.

WHO's current system focuses on how widespread the disease has become without regard to its severity. Some member nations are anxious to avoid having the agency declare a swine flu pandemic because the ramifications of that scientific decision could be very costly and politically charged.

m.reporternews.com...


I'm not saying this can't get worse or that there may be some behind the scenes shenanigans going on. I'm only saying this may not be as bad as it looks.
Just some food for thought.

Originally posted by JustMike
reply to post by JJay55

 

I see the point in your opening question, but as there are doubtless already thousands who've left (including by planes, which have all been full -- and yes, they are still flying in out), then his leaving at this stage will make scant difference, really. Even the WHO's experts said that containment is not possible now.

Agreed. Containment is shattered. It'll be everywhere by now, though it's not certain it will have the same success in other regions.

If I were Asen, I'd be out of there as soon as I could too.

reply to post by JJay55

How many catch it will depend on its virulence and morbidity* and if they remain unchanged, or worsen or lessen. If they expect 12 mil. cases in Ukraine that's around 25% of the population. Not sure if they mean in 1st wave or combined with subsequent one(s). But apparently they haven't had a big epidemic of flu in recent years so it could be worse for them than in countries where they have. * Virulence = infectiousness -- how easy it is to catch, and morbidity is infection rate as a percentage of population.

Now many die of it depends on its *lethality in relation to its morbidity. We don't really know if we have solid data for that yet. *Lethality = percentage of deaths versus number of infections.

I'm no expert and we really need someone who can work this out with some reasonable ranges of scenarios. I'm okay for calculating simple stuff like hospital bed availability but this needs a person who can look at it with a very scientific and detached perspective.

Right now, I can't, I'm sorry.

We have grandchildren here in Prague.

We love them.

Just being honest with you.

Mike

The Head Sanitary Inspector did an interview today or yesterday on ICTV television channel and stated there is no swine flu epidemic.

UNIAN

I have a link to the translated page on Google. I need help in finding it on the station if it's even archived on there. The interview that is.

ICTV Translated

Today on the same news site he restates the death toll from "swine flu" not what the rest died from.

UNIAN

There is now actually a US Source that quotes the Head Sanitary Inspector as well.

CIDRAP

The country's head sanitary inspector today, in a television interview, denied that the country was experiencing an outbreak of pandemic flu and said only 14 cases had been confirmed, including three deaths, according to another UNIAN report today.




[edit on 11/4/2009 by pwrthtbe]

I've just called our local Channel 9 news desk and spoke to the news chief querying why there has been a total lack of reporting being done by his (and other local) channels ... his reply was that they essentially had received NO reports on the Ukrainian situation and that it was news (no pun) to him

He went on further to say that "I had sparked his interest" and that he would now look into it.

I'm going to call Channel 10 shortly and ask the same questions.

Originally posted by JustMike
We have grandchildren here in Prague.

Yep, this is where it starts hitting home and gets close to loved ones. And PTS grows because of worry and anguish. The whole situation isn't good.
Let's have a group (((((( hug ))))))). My best to everyone!

Ok, on a lighter note, every time I see The WHO I think of the band and pinball wizard Roger Daltry and those crazy Elton John shoes.

Originally posted by pwrthtbe
There is now actually a US Source that quotes the Head Sanitary Inspector as well.

CIDRAP

The country's head sanitary inspector today, in a television interview, denied that the country was experiencing an outbreak of pandemic flu and said only 14 cases had been confirmed, including three deaths, according to another UNIAN report today.
[edit on 11/4/2009 by pwrthtbe]

Right. One guy says that somehow there is a level six pandemic globally, but in his area unless something is "confirmed" for sure that ain't what it is....except that every case that has been confirmed is H1N1.

Maybe if he's that sure and needs that depth of confirmation he should be pushing for local labs that aren't so mickey mouse that they still don't have the right facilities to test after knowing about it for half a year.

Sounds like the sort of guy you wouldn't want to stand next to in a battle field. He knows there are guns. He knows people die from bullets. He knows that everywhere around him people are pulling triggers. But because the bullets are too fast for him to see he doesn't get on the ground when people around him fall down.



[edit on 2009/11/4 by Aeons]

Here's an article from Bloomberg.com that I haven't seen posted yet (forgive me if it has been) with some more information. Check out these two paragraphs:

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said in an urgent address to the nation today that the country’s flu outbreak is “unique” because three flu strains are spreading at the same time. That increases the risk of mutations of the viruses into a new strain, he said, citing unnamed domestic and foreign experts. The World Health Organization sent a team of scientists and advisers to Ukraine this week to investigate the outbreak.

The country’s Council for National Security and Defense is taking over management of the epidemic now, Yushchenko said, adding that the government has failed to control the spread of illness from the western Ternopil region.

I've just got of the phone to the international news desk chief here at Channel 10, explained the reports that have been coming out of the Ukraine, state of emergency declared, 86 deaths reported, request for humanitarian aid, etc, etc ... and guess what her response was ?

"Not newsworthy and there are many other more pressing news items to report on" ... and then she hung up on me !!! WTF !!!!

I emailed Sky News, BBC and ITN here in the UK demandng to know why this is not getting covered. So far no answers. Seems there is a media blackout regarding the Ukraine here in the UK. U can bet since they are all on the NWO's payroll nothing will be said till it's too late.

Just a theory but I think the media blackout is because they want this to run it's course.

Just my thoughts but the more I look at the bullsh*t news we are getting it points to what I think!!

My thoughts go out to the people of the Ukraine!!!