O.K. before I get into the discussion this is my first time posting on ‘Above Top Secret’ and I’m not here to argue in a derogatory fashion.
Last I checked, this is a service for people who wish to open their mind - if you can’t do that without insulting another, who is worse? The bigot
or the misinformed? This is about educating one another and coming to our own conclusion.
During this ‘discussion’ I will, refer to many websites to explain key points. All of these are ‘sites, I use for College work and are very
reliable. I am also studying, Law, Sociology, Psychology and History within Britain and I’m hoping to go on to do Law and Sociology as my degree.
With China as my focal point of social theory.
But, I would also like to point out I’m not Anti-American (I actively admit I would of voted Bush over Kerry.) but I’m also not Anti-Communist (my
views are somewhere within the middle.) Call it ‘Post-Communism’.
I also grew up in a very Military background, my Grandfathers on both sides serving during WW2 and my Uncle being in the Army at this present moment
in time. I also happen to actively go to the nearest USAF and RAF base, to talk about things like this and once I get my degree I plan to join the RAF
Gunners, for 9 years.
Anyway, enough about me - I just wished to provide some background information to help ‘back up’ my view. As that is how this game seems to be
played.
1. Can the U.S. invade China in the first place?
Firstly, before we talk about America Invading China we have to look at China’s geography:
China has borders with: Afghanistan 76 km, Bhutan 470 km, Burma 2,185 km, India 3,380 km, Kazakhstan 1,533 km, North Korea 1,416 km, Kyrgyzstan 858
km, Laos 423 km, Mongolia 4,677 km, Nepal 1,236 km, Pakistan 523 km, Russia (northeast) 3,605 km, Russia (northwest) 40 km, Tajikistan 414 km, Vietnam
1,281 km.
Now, out of these Nations America can invade on land through India and Afghanistan for sure. But, with the current political climate in the Middle
East, I doubt India would really want to have America invade from there - especially as in my opinion this might result in a backlash, with other
Middle Eastern Countries (especially Pakistan) might attack India. (Hypothetical - but this whole argument is.)
But the terrain would also factor into this:
‘mostly mountains, high plateaus, deserts in west; plains, deltas, and hills in east’. Now, if you look at the map on the CIA website, the east
would make India hard to move a ground-force in from.
Now you move onto Air Supremacy. I do not doubt America having a much better Air Force than China, but it has to be able to use these aeroplanes or
they’re of no use. Now, unless they can get clearance to use these nations air-space, America runs the risk of making more enemies. So, the only
logical way for them to attack would be from ships and Australia.
Now, with the political climate in Australia and the United States this could cause a lot of friction between them. But getting rid of this point, the
main way I can see America attacking is through its Air-Force, sent from Air-craft Carriers.
Now the problem with this is; firstly China does not have to release any information on its Navy and never does. Just last year, it was found out
they’re near to completion of their first set of Second Generation Submarines. Now, although America can sometimes detect these submarines if an
attack was co-ordinated well, they would be able to seriously limit the number of aircraft carriers. Which could in turn cripple part of the bombing
campaign. (Which is the only logical way to attack.)
Although, missiles (Cruise) would still be sent over and in a mass number. But, the aircrafts tend to do a lot of the work and if they loose the air
supremacy China would then in turn be able to send a mass amount of aeroplanes to attack American ships. Although they would suffer a lot of
casualties, do you think China would care? As long as they won.
Another point, I’ve yet to see is would China adopt the “Kamikaze” style of piloting like Japan did in World War 2. You have to remember China
is a “Collectivist Society” and this can be a devastating weapon in war.
Also, would they adopt this style and attempt to hit other aeroplanes out of the sky?
This is without factoring in things such as ‘Anti-air’ and ‘Military errors’.
All this information and statistics are gathered from:
CIA - China Fact Book
Collectivist Societies
2. Are America's technological and firepower advantages helpful in the long run against 1 billion people?
The problem with this question is “How well armed would these people be”?
The CIA website says: “Military manpower - fit for military service:
males age 15-49: 208,143,352 (2004 est.)”.
Where as America have: “73,597,731 soldiers.”
So, say everyone of these people have guns. China being given the AK-47 and America with their current military hardware - America has better
firepower. But, even if the Chinese just do ‘Spray and Pray’ tactics, they would be able to do a lot of damage. A good example of this, would be
like in Iraq - with the Chinese military digging in and doing hit and run tactics. Again, if you factor the “Collectivist Society” model into this
- you have the problem of suicide bombers. But, you also have the problem of other Countries (terrorists) becoming involved just to attack America.
(Look at Iraq.)
But also China, just like Russia has based its Military around how to defeat America. So, unlike any other Nation that America has had war with this
could be a major problem for them. (Cold war technology and ideology still factors in, to this present day.)
All this information and statistics are gathered from:
CIA - China Fact Book
CIA - America Factbook
3. How effective would U.S. airpower be?
American Airpower would be the most important aspect of the battle - it is how they would ‘win’ or ‘lose’ the war. Depending on the planning
before hand. After all, America have never had to take on a Nation who are as developed as China (comparatively) since World War 2. (Except Maybe the
Korean War - but that was, China, Russia and North Korea - as well as other factors.)
So, I think it would be the only way they could win. On a ground war, China has difficult terrain to cross and the defenders advantage. (Look back to
question one.)
Which would make occupation almost impossible. Now if America did go for “Complete Annihilation” they would need the aeroplanes to deliver the
mass amount of bombs needed. Although, this is doubtful. As China has far to much economic potential to pass up.
4. Is it safe to say every Chinese citizen would fight?
This comes down to two factors:
Firstly, China is a “Collectivist Society”. A lot of people agree with the way the state runs things (many don’t, I know this.) so, a large
number of people would want to be ‘Independent of American rule’ especially with the political climate and the way America is seen as
‘Colonizing’ the world.
The second is how well they could be equipped. China has a history of its people willingly fighting with knives against guns - during the
British/European occupation. But, they also could collect weapons from fallen American soldiers and their own soldiers. But, also would they use pipe
and roadside bombs as well as traps - dwindling the American Army down like they do in Iraq. Plus, you have to factor in “Insurgents” from other
countries.
5. Can the U.S. hold up against a modern military supported by guerrilla warfare?
Depending on how well they manage to attack from the air. If they are able to destabilise the country, then they might be able to get in. But, with
the mass amount of people and land area to protect I doubt they would be able too.
6. Any other thoughts?
Now, this is where the ‘tough’ and mainly ‘hypothetical’ points come in.
Firstly, we have to look at the allies of each Nation.
China has Russia, North Korea, Iran and Cuba.
America has a large portion of Europe, including Britain and also Israel in the middle east but also Japan.
Now, without a doubt Britain would back America - we tend to, a lot. (I’m English by nationality.) So, they would gain the British Naval Fleet as
well as their Air Force. Which happen to be very well trained and in turn, would get the ability to land and fly from Australia. (Remember, they do
not have sovereignty.)
The other European Nations, would be problematic. With the current political climate, I believe France would not get involved and after Spain’s
pullout of Iraq, neither would they. So, that takes out two of the larger more powerful Nations. But, also with Anti-War sentiment in Germany it is
doubtful they would either.
As for Japan, I think it would hold back - if America lost they’d be an easy target for China in retaliation and also due to a lot of resentment by
China after the occupation during World War 2.
On the other hand, Russia has had longstanding problems with America. (Ever since they were not told about the bombing of Japan with the atom bomb.)
Iran, also hates America (we all know that) and well Cuba have never been good friends. (Ever remember the invasion by them to America in the 60’s?
It’s O.K. nobody else does either.)
So, now you look at it like this. Firstly, let us take “North Korea”. They have had a long problem with America - ever since the Korean War. Now,
realistically if China was to fall North Korea knows they would be next. So it is likely while America was busy with China, North Korea would attack
the South - after all, the only reason this has yet to happen is because of America protecting South Korea.
Another major problem and oversight of everyone, is what would Russia hope to gain I they helped China? Well, it is called Alaska. With the melting of
the polar ice caps, this has allowed Russia to be able to send more of its fleet towards Alaska. (It hasn’t but could.) Now, with America busy
fighting China what is to stop Russia attacking Alaska? The oil alone would make it worthwhile and Russian soldiers are trained to fight in that sort
of environment. So, they have a lot to gain.
Also, with America busy with China this at last gives Iran (and many other Middle Eastern Nations) the chance to get rid of Israel. Now because we
have factored out Nuclear Weapons - the ‘Zionist Empire’ would be a very likely target by ‘Muslim Nations’ and without American protection it
is likely this would happen.
Now, just to say America did attack with full force - which his what they would have to use, it is likely Russia would attack for Alaska. North Korea
would love to get South, Iran would love to get vengeance for the 1980’s bombings by Israel. So, you actually have a lot of other countries involved
for their own reasons because America is no longer able to “Police the World”.
Now, if this happened it is likely America would loose. Europe would back off, as they never do much anyway. (Come on, look at the U.N.) China would
then attack/retake Taiwan. Iran and other middle eastern Nations, Syria and Egypt for example would probably attack Israel and maybe even Iraq. Russia
would invade Alaska and America would then have no choice but to pull back.
China would then push fourth to take more land (Possible Japan, depending on if Japan helped America or not.) Australia because of its mass amount of
land and agricultural potential as well as New Zealand.
All this information and statistics are gathered from:
Alaska State - Oil
Korean war
History: Russia and Alaska
Cuba - History
CIA - China Fact Book
Collectivist Societies
Economic Discussion and other key points: China is one of the richest countries in the world, but also they are able to feed themselves and take care
of themselves with the mass labour power they have. America on the other hand, is isolating itself by its actions. It needs to sell products, to the
smaller developing nations to earn money.
Now, if you say for example the war lasted for 5 years. It is likely each nation would develop two new fleets of air and one of sea, to use in the
war. With an advantage in China’s favour due to labour power.
Also, with the way the American people sometimes are (look at the Iraq war) it is possible a war with China could instigate mass rights and other
problems at home with the ‘Liberal’ and ‘Communist’ supporters. And in turn increase the terrorist attacks upon America - especially with
their interests in other parts of the world. Possibly destabilizing the economy and in turn pushing the battle in China’s favour even more so.
As ‘Blackout’ pointed out, morale could also push in China’s favour as they’re defending their own land.
Russia would also be willing to sell to China, to help strengthen themselves and also keep America occupied well they got ready for a counter
attack/were attacking.
Another possible problem is, what would Mexico and Canada do? Canada in theory would be with America, but do they have the Army to stop Russia? Mexico
also has a long history of waging war with America and backing their enemies. (World War 1 and 2, if I remember correctly.) Leading to either A) the
possibility of America being invaded by China/Russia from the South or Mexico themselves attacking. Although, I myself doubt this.
What of South America as well? A lot of these nations have had problems with Britain and America over the years and this could lead to another
possibility. (And yes, this is starting to sound like WW3.) I also think, Britain would back out of the war within 2years and the European block would
probably become one Nation under the E.U. (Kind of how the U.S. works, each country having separate governments with one central government. Like now,
but stronger for protection.)
(Economics isn’t my main area, so feel free to criticise this, this is just my basic understanding of the situation and a lot of possibilities
thrown in for fun.)
Odium: Bio-Organic Weapon.
Criticism and comments more than welcome.
Reference and Counter points:
In reference to ‘post id: 1137674’:
If you know stealth doesnt make you invisible just harder to find, also a rapier AND a type 42 destroyer (if i am not mistaken) tracked a B2 over
scotland…’
I’m actually from England and he is speaking the truth on that point, I’ll try and find a document or website as soon as possible.
[edit on 9-2-2005 by Odium]