U.S. vs. China

There are a lot of interesting thoughts on here, and I'd like to share with you all mine. I see the scenario playing out like this:

China will finally hit the point sometime within the next 5 years where they feel they have enough power to retake Taiwan. They will probably issue an ultimatum similar to the one that the USA issued to Iraq.... u got a 3 days or else. Three days would give China enough time to mobilize a massive force opposite the strait to Taiwan and strategically place it's naval and air assets for battle in that general Vacinity. Taiwan would fortify it's positions on shore and in the sea immediately surrounding their turf, and of course cry out to the international community for help. That would be the deciding point. The USA would decide whether a war with China would be worth it or not and basically decide the future of Taiwan. You probably wouldn't hear about the decision on CNN until it was already effected. If war was chosen, the USA could probably have 3 maybe even 4 carrier groups in the area by the time the 3 days were up. As far as groud forces, not nearly enough time to get anything substantial over there, only what they could airlift. China launches hundreds of conventional missiles at strategic targets in Taiwan, and the skies fill with hundreds of Chinese fighters, quickly overwhelming the Taiwanese airforce over the strait and proceed on to Taiwan where they bomb an already heavily damaged Taiwan. Meanwhile, the U.S. carrier fleets have already launched their fighters farther out to sea and probably engage the Chinese air force as they are leaving Taiwan and heading back to the mainland, maybe even get there in time to join in the fight over Taiwan, although with SAM's flying everywhere, that's not where I'd want to be, and I doubt the US would send their planes into that mess. Chinese air force takes massive losses as they are chased back to the chinese mainland. American B2 and other heavy bombers have taken off from bases all over the world and are en route to strategic targets in China. US subs launch copious amounts of cruise missiles at the Chinese airfields to catch the Chinese air force as it returns to reload and refuel using cluster munitions to destroy as many of the returning aircraft, fuel, and munition depots as they can. Most of the missiles will probably come from submarines stationed shockingly close to the Chinese mainland, allowing only a couple of minutes reaction time, not even enough to scramble the aircraft. The US attack submarines that are obviously trailing Chinese naval assets quickly dispatch them and set up shop near Chinese ports and wait in ambush for the coming invasion force to set out. This is probly 10-12 hours of battle. Chinese Air force is heavily damaged, navy is crippled, and Taiwan is a smoldering ruin. North Korea invades south Korea knowing that the USA has all it can handle with China and will probably not be the major target. Seoul is obliterated in a matter of hours by the thousands of artillery pieces and missiles targeted at it even as we speak. 1,000,000 North Korean troops march across the border and quickly overwhelm the much smaller S. Korean/US force. If China knew where the American carrier forces were, that would drastically alter the scenario, as they have large numbers of highly advanced russian anti-ship surface to surface missiles called 'sunburns' they would throw everything they have at the carriers in order to get them out of the picture. US would probly keep carriers farther back in the ocean out of range of these nasty units, thus only being able to engage the Chinese air force over Taiwan as it is in the process of being decemated. After all this played out... Taiwan is trashed, Chinese Air force probably crippled, their Navy gone, unescorted landing craft would be torn to pieces by american attack subs in the strait, so they probly wouldn't even launch an invasion. The US has no means to stage a large scale invasion of China.. if it's even possible against a couple million troops. American cruise missiles pulverise chinese military installations, effectively taking air fields, ports, railroads, bridges, telecommunications stations, and satellites. What now? China waits in the dark with thousands of tanks, couple million troops, untold thousands of SAM's, and an increasingly frustrated command staff with their fingers caressing the big red button. Effective stale mate, and a dangerous one I think.

The US could never fight a land war against China, and there is no way Russia would back the US up... way too big a mess, and they seem to be pretty friendly with China, sending them their latest military tech and all. Also, the US is getting pretty sick of constantly being at war.. their forces are stretched rather thin all over the world, and an invasion of China would have to be preceeded by an incredible shock and awe campaign needed to eliminate the chinese army's numbers, infrastructure, and the people's will to fight so that China has a hard time getting people to join up and increase the PLA numbers to theoretical 50-100 million range to take advantage of their massive manpower advantage. I think that the American people would grow so disgusted with the incredible carnage inflicted on the Chinese cities that they would shut down the war similar to Vietnam. No winner... just losers... namely Taiwan, who the US is supposed to want to protect, and South Korea who would almost certainly be invaded very shortly after China went after Taiwan.

Just my thoughts, feel free to comment. Thnx.

And as a question to everybody, what would be the impact on American society (assuming we went there for a self-proclaimed "noble cause," such as freeing the Chinese people, and disarming them of WMD which they beyond the shadow of a doubt have)? Would America have any allies besides Britain? What would our economy be? How will Asian-Americans be treated?

[Edited on 13-4-2004 by sweatmonicaIdo]

C'mon now you and I both know that the UK would not stand with the US IF (and that a very big if) they decided to just go and attack the 4th biggest super power in the world. Considering we (UK) make to much money from the chinese in imports/exports to just throw that away because the US said so would be economic suicide THINK before you post.

I mean that's just as stupid as syria moving 15,000 troops in to one place (west lebanon). How vulnrable to attack would they be??? VERY

Originally posted by Devans28
There are a lot of interesting thoughts on here, and I'd like to share with you all mine. I see the scenario playing out like this:

China will finally hit the point sometime within the next 5 years where they feel they have enough power to retake Taiwan. They will probably issue an ultimatum similar to the one that the USA issued to Iraq.... u got a 3 days or else. Three days would give China enough time to mobilize a massive force opposite the strait to Taiwan and strategically place it's naval and air assets for battle in that general Vacinity. Taiwan would fortify it's positions on shore and in the sea immediately surrounding their turf, and of course cry out to the international community for help. That would be the deciding point. The USA would decide whether a war with China would be worth it or not and basically decide the future of Taiwan. You probably wouldn't hear about the decision on CNN until it was already effected. If war was chosen, the USA could probably have 3 maybe even 4 carrier groups in the area by the time the 3 days were up. As far as groud forces, not nearly enough time to get anything substantial over there, only what they could airlift. China launches hundreds of conventional missiles at strategic targets in Taiwan, and the skies fill with hundreds of Chinese fighters, quickly overwhelming the Taiwanese airforce over the strait and proceed on to Taiwan where they bomb an already heavily damaged Taiwan. Meanwhile, the U.S. carrier fleets have already launched their fighters farther out to sea and probably engage the Chinese air force as they are leaving Taiwan and heading back to the mainland, maybe even get there in time to join in the fight over Taiwan, although with SAM's flying everywhere, that's not where I'd want to be, and I doubt the US would send their planes into that mess. Chinese air force takes massive losses as they are chased back to the chinese mainland. American B2 and other heavy bombers have taken off from bases all over the world and are en route to strategic targets in China. US subs launch copious amounts of cruise missiles at the Chinese airfields to catch the Chinese air force as it returns to reload and refuel using cluster munitions to destroy as many of the returning aircraft, fuel, and munition depots as they can. Most of the missiles will probably come from submarines stationed shockingly close to the Chinese mainland, allowing only a couple of minutes reaction time, not even enough to scramble the aircraft. The US attack submarines that are obviously trailing Chinese naval assets quickly dispatch them and set up shop near Chinese ports and wait in ambush for the coming invasion force to set out. This is probly 10-12 hours of battle. Chinese Air force is heavily damaged, navy is crippled, and Taiwan is a smoldering ruin. North Korea invades south Korea knowing that the USA has all it can handle with China and will probably not be the major target. Seoul is obliterated in a matter of hours by the thousands of artillery pieces and missiles targeted at it even as we speak. 1,000,000 North Korean troops march across the border and quickly overwhelm the much smaller S. Korean/US force. If China knew where the American carrier forces were, that would drastically alter the scenario, as they have large numbers of highly advanced russian anti-ship surface to surface missiles called 'sunburns' they would throw everything they have at the carriers in order to get them out of the picture. US would probly keep carriers farther back in the ocean out of range of these nasty units, thus only being able to engage the Chinese air force over Taiwan as it is in the process of being decemated. After all this played out... Taiwan is trashed, Chinese Air force probably crippled, their Navy gone, unescorted landing craft would be torn to pieces by american attack subs in the strait, so they probly wouldn't even launch an invasion. The US has no means to stage a large scale invasion of China.. if it's even possible against a couple million troops. American cruise missiles pulverise chinese military installations, effectively taking air fields, ports, railroads, bridges, telecommunications stations, and satellites. What now? China waits in the dark with thousands of tanks, couple million troops, untold thousands of SAM's, and an increasingly frustrated command staff with their fingers caressing the big red button. Effective stale mate, and a dangerous one I think.

Nice ideas - very well written.

But, the only problem I can see, (major problem that is,) is the fact you’ve not thought about any new possible SAM sites that China might get and deploy in the region. By my knowledge, Taiwan is less then 200KM offshore of Mainland China. (Correct me if I’m wrong.) Now the SA-10 Grumble (S-300) has a tracking range of well over 200KMs and the missile can engage a target at over 100KMs (last time I checked.)

Now, this would hamper American’s ability to fly over Taiwan and protect it as from launch they’d already be tracked by the S-300’s radar system. Also, missiles fired at mainland would probably be intercepted by the S-300’s as it has a fairly good record.

Now, if Russia sells the S-400 system to China an even larger problem arises. The S-400 has twice the range of the S-300, meaning it can fire at over 200KM. In other words, it can fire over Taiwan. If this was to happen, this could severally hamper Americas involvement. Also, if this happens 5years from now it would be during the first term of a new president! Nobody seems to have thought of this. He would never get re-elected if he went to war and large American casualties were reported. This would be political suicide.

Now with a system like the S-400 in place. It’s doubtful America could get overly involved. I doubt they’d run the risk of a F-22 getting shot down or a B-2. (The B-2 I personally thing the S-400 can destroy.) But you also get the problem of the S-400 being moveable. They could transport it to Taiwan once they have invaded and in turn catch American planes while they’re refuelling or returning to their ships.

As for a land war, never happen.

Naval - doubtful, China will have a lot of submarines by then - waiting encase they have to destroy American ships.

Also, N.K. might attack Japan with its missiles. But, for sure they'd take the chance to attack S.K. and with America busy in the Middle East, then S.K. and Taiwan. I don't see a way they could win.

Edit: It's even rumoured that one of the aditions to the S-300/400 gives ti a 400km range. If so, I'd say no U.S. involvement.

[edit on 8-3-2005 by Odium]

I thought about the SAM possibilities on mainland China, but I didn't think they could fly that far. I'm sure the US has more than a couple of spy satellites hanging over China though, and probably would have a pretty good idea about the Chinese assets' location. However, they wouldn't risk sending their aircraft into a mess like that until the threat had been neutralized, so for the first wave, the Taiwanese would probably be on their own. Which means Taiwan would be screwed.

As for the election thing.. I never thought of that. But it wouldn't be the USA starting that war, and it could be equally disastrous to stand by and watch a democratic country be annexed by communists when the last few Presidents have sworn to protect it, and the current president is on a 'protect and spread democracy' bender.

Either way, eventually I think that the Americans would have air superiority over everywhere but the Chinese mainland, and almost instant naval superiority. So China has no means to invade, and the USA wouldn't have the ability to invade China. So where does it go from there?

Stalemate is essentially what I would predict, although it remains to be seen if the US would risk landing troops on chinese occupied Taiwan.

China would see that as an invasion attempt

Now, this would hamper American’s ability to fly over Taiwan and protect it as from launch they’d already be tracked by the S-300’s radar system. Also, missiles fired at mainland would probably be intercepted by the S-300’s as it has a fairly good record.

Even if these systems were effective, which I doubt, they certainly aren't going to be very effective at their max ranges. The S-300 isn't a threat to American stealth planes from over a hundred miles away.

Now with a system like the S-400 in place. It’s doubtful America could get overly involved. I doubt they’d run the risk of a F-22 getting shot down or a B-2. (The B-2 I personally thing the S-400 can destroy.) But you also get the problem of the S-400 being moveable. They could transport it to Taiwan once they have invaded and in turn catch American planes while they’re refuelling or returning to their ships.

The S-400 will shoot down B-2's like Iraq's Russian SAM's in the 80's could shoot down Iranian Tomcats...

Better then being an American and shooting a passanger plane down, thinking it was an F-14 Tomcat?

[edit on 9/3/05 by The Godfather of Conspira]

I think people are underestimating US power and its tactics it would use in this event. The US wouldnt care about the chinese if it came to war. China isnt Iraq and if this war were to happen then china would have had to started the conflicted. America at this point cant afford to start an offensive aganist china but can defend from China with a combination of Taiwanese foot soilders and US air power. The campaign the American aifforce would start wouldnt be anything like Shock-and-awe but more like the Campaign the allies used against Germany during WW2. I believe the only way America can actually be defeated is if the Chinese were to defeat US airpower which I dont believe can happen. Dont forget you might say China might use some high-tech SAM that can hit a plane before it can reach china but dont forget both sides have electronic jammers which is a great defense against any planes in the sky, so the only way any side can actually do quick and critical damage to the other is if it attacks inside the opponets mainland and America has the advanage in terms of airpower. Well I dont believe its in China best intrest to do anything to Taiwan because it wouldnt be good for china as a whole. Their economy would be destroyed and their people would stare because of the blockade the US navy would likely put on them. So when people say who would win its not a hard answer. Just look at the position of military of both countries and you would get your answer. America's military is everywhere, China's are at home craving for Taiwan which they dont dare because they would get hit fast and hard by the Americans. This question needs to be asked in about 50 years because at this time the only force that can defeat American forces are the Americans. And please dont keep using Iraq as an example to why america would lose because the only reason Iraq can still kill troops are because America doesnt want to start a real Jihad and a new world war in which hundreds of millions of people would die.

myer7025, I would respond to you in some great depth about the mistakes you make on several key points.

But I can't understand what your main points are. Please structure your essays, a little better as it is hard to read and makes your point less valid. (As I don't understand it.)

I will list them.

1.America at this time cannot lose a war with China unless nukes are involved.

2.China cant attack taiwan because they would have to deal with US airpower and naval might which I dont believe they can handle.(Well it can but it wouldnt be smart for the Chinese people at this time)

3.THe bombing campaign wouldnt be like the one in Iraq it would be more like the on in Germany during WW2.

4. The country that would inflict the most damage to the other is the one that can attack inside their opponets mainland which china cannot do, at least in the short term.

5.China cannot attack America like America can attack china. China is a up coming military and economic power compared to america who has been one for a while.

6.The only thing that seems unlike America could do is invade and occuply China.

7.China cannot fight a long term war because AMerica would most likely blockade china.

Im sorry if anyone didnt understand what I said I kind of rushed that one. I hope I made myself clearer.

1. Why do you think that? To me, if America lost a lot of lives, planes or ships. That could cost them the war. Although, I don’t see this war happening for at least 5years.

2. Give it 5 years, with the increased number of submarines China will have and the amount of S-400’s and their own indigenous SAM sites that can supposedly go 400KM (twice the range that Taiwan is from them), I doubt America would risk it.

3. Good idea. But, I’m not sure on that. American public approval plays a big part, if they started to bomb dams, cities, etc I think with the civilian causalities this could cause more harm to the Administration then they would be willing to risk.

4. America would have to either fly from bases in the Middle East, Australia, Japan or use Air Craft Carriers. I honestly think, China would willingly blitz the American carrier fleets the moment they attacked China. Australia/Japan might not want to risk what happens if America looses. After all, Japan or S.K. getting involved could kick off a lot of other situations. (Like a second Korean War.)

5. I’d agree with you there. China can’t attack American mainland, but 5-10 years they’ll cause a large problem within the Asian area. But, they don’t intend to attack the American mainland. To do so would be suicide.

6. America invading China would be suicide and vice versa. India, Russia, etc would not let them use their land. (The risk of reprisal is to great).

7. This is why it won’t happen for a good 5years. Give it 5years time, the increased economy of China. (It’ll be a hell of a lot bigger by 2010.) the fact they’ll have less need for oil, with the fact they’re moving to natural sources of energy. Solar, wind, water, etc. The larger Air Force (700 Air Crafts by then?) and who knows how many boats, in my area could force America not to get involved.

Is Taiwan worth the risk? Is South Korea and Japan also worth the risk? Which is what might happen, if they attacked and suffered a lot of casualties. (Although, I admit China would as well - they just have an ‘expendable’ population.)

Have a look at page 48 and read my post there. It might help explain these points a little better, as I don't wish to keep re-typnig them.

Nice points though. Once you broke it down, it made a lot of sense.

I agree, but I don't get where you think the Chinese would be able to "blitz" the American carriers. A carrier is very, very difficult to take out.

Let me get political for a moment and ask you all this. In light of recent events between China and Taiwan, how likely do you think is a confrontation between China and Taiwan? Likelier than a war in the Middle East?

I still dont believe China can defeat America in a war. China just trying to take over taiwan can cripple it. And I believe The US has enough defense to protect Alaska while the US send troops to that state (responding to your post on page 48). You speak of these SAMs but America also has their own SAMs that are good enough to take out a large amount of Chinese Aircrafts.

Now you might say that China might be able to recruit more soilders to fight and any loses can be replaced easy for China. But what about the equipment they use. Yes China might have this weapon and that weapon but do they have enough to replace the ones they lost? I can honestly say I dont know and if you do please post it because I would like to know.

IT also depends on what type of war this would be. I dont believe if China were to attack Taiwan and America responded with force that it would result in total war. I believe America would limit itself to only Air power.

Yes I read a article that stated China's Navy fleet in 10 years could out number the Americans, but how? Would it have more Carriers?, Destroyers?, subs?

And you speak of American liberals and communist attacking inside the country while we are distracted but what about the people how yearn for democracy in china and are still pissed about what happened in 1989? I dont believe America has to invade in order for the Chinese government to fall. I believe a civilwar would start which can turn the tide of the war. I dont believe the American public would let their country be controled by communist or any other type of government. Lets be forreal America just needs reforms not to be overthrown compare to China that many believe needs a change in government.

Now you talk about allies. Yes I agree with you most of the arab world would go against Amerca for the simple fact of Iraq alone. But im sure even the French would get into it to support America even if relations are bad. Both countries are still allies. Europe is still apart of NATO and was and still is protected by America. Dont you think Russia might want to return to its Soviet borders? So a American defeat is also a European lost. And the last time I read something about if NK attacks SK it was said that SK can win even though it might be devistated by NK units. And lets not forget one important thing. If China looked like it was ready for a war with America, Japan will re-arm itself. They would alter their laws to do so just for the fact that America might not be able to protect it.



[edit on 9-3-2005 by myer7025]

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
In light of recent events between China and Taiwan, how likely do you think is a confrontation between China and Taiwan? Likelier than a war in the Middle East?

China will by all means try everything they can diplomatically to keep Taiwan part of mainland China, but by the same token, they would just as easily crush Taiwan with military action if they were to announce they would become a republic. I’d say sooner or later it will happen, but I believe another war will happen in the Middle East before one occurs in the Far East. China will want to wait until after the 2008 Olympics before initiating anything “strategic”…

Originally posted by myer7025
Now you might say that China might be able to recruit more soldiers to fight and any loses can be replaced easy for China. But what about the equipment they use. Yes China might have this weapon and that weapon but do they have enough to replace the ones they lost?

China is going through a process of updating, renewing, reviewing, rebuilding and strengthening its military power. Its spending HUGE amounts of money on defence (ranked 3rd: behind US and Japan) By 2010 they will have a military just as good as anyone elses if not better. Chinas economy is booming as well, by 2010 huge American companies may well take their money out of the US and put it in China… They don’t care who their money is with, as long as they are making more. So the answer is No they don’t have the money as of yet, but they will in the near future.

Originally posted by myer7025
I read something about if NK attacks SK it was said that SK can win even though it might be devistated by NK units.

Only due to the US pressence in the region, and an attack on the South would be declare war on American soil… With out the US, S. Korea is a sitting duck.

You know, sometimes i think some people in the US are "happier" if China went to war with Taiwan.

The point of the matter is, if Taiwan doesn't declare independence, China won't touch it.

Even if Taiwan was to integrate(as in peacefully) within the Mainland, it would not be like Hong Kong. It will most likily keep it's military and institutions separately from Mainland. Only foreign policy will be absorbed.

[edit on 10-3-2005 by rapier28]

Ok,

I've read some very interesting statements that have come up in the last day... but I can't say any are valid. As far as S. Korea being able to fend of N. Korea... not a hope in hell. N. Korea is very outdated, but the have 10-1 what S. korea has including the american garrison there.... in every aspect. There is no way that south korea could stand up... give em 2 days or so before they are effectively defeated.... stragglers after that, but the main objective, Seol will have been destroyed, then occupied. As far as our gung ho American buddy that thinks that Chinese SAM sites are a joke that can be easily negated, remember that these are state of the art Russian systems (s-400) that are equivalent or even better than anything the untited states currently runs. Their aircraft are also top notch, equivalent to f-15's and f-18's... but they have very few. Most of China's aircraft are archaic old Russian jets that are no worry. But the Chinese have licenses from Russia to build these nice aircraft (su-37 etc.) and their numbers will increase by the hundreds if not a thousand a year. No matter what happense, the Chinese will never be able to defeat the Americans in a naval engagement, thus the Chinese would never be able to invade Taiwan. Heck, Russia could sell China their entire fleet, and they would still get wooped in a matter of 24 hours... although I'd be interested to see if the US could find their Typhoon missile boats and especially their Alpha subs.. damn those Alphas are slick... but anyways... I'm not so sure you all give China enough credit... no, they couldn't ever defeat the united states in a war, heck.. they'd still get their butt wooped by Russia... but the U.S. has no way to invade them, and with their awesome SAM systems, they wouldn't go after mainland China... maybe with B-2's... but that would be a huge risk to lose one of those, and their industry base and military facilities are too numerous to do any real damage without running out the odds of losing a top of the line aircraft over.

As I said before. The US would eventually gain air supremacy over everything but mainland China, and they would gain instant naval superiority. But the US doesnt have the means to invade China. Stalemate, for better of for worse.

US VS China... EA style

www.eagames.com...

Originally posted by Devans28
Ok,

I've read some very interesting statements that have come up in the last day... but I can't say any are valid. As far as S. Korea being able to fend of N. Korea... not a hope in hell. N. Korea is very outdated, but the have 10-1 what S. korea has including the american garrison there.... in every aspect. There is no way that south korea could stand up... give em 2 days or so before they are effectively defeated.... stragglers after that, but the main objective, Seol will have been destroyed, then occupied. As far as our gung ho American buddy that thinks that Chinese SAM sites are a joke that can be easily negated, remember that these are state of the art Russian systems (s-400) that are equivalent or even better than anything the untited states currently runs. Their aircraft are also top notch, equivalent to f-15's and f-18's... but they have very few. Most of China's aircraft are archaic old Russian jets that are no worry. But the Chinese have licenses from Russia to build these nice aircraft (su-37 etc.) and their numbers will increase by the hundreds if not a thousand a year. No matter what happense, the Chinese will never be able to defeat the Americans in a naval engagement, thus the Chinese would never be able to invade Taiwan. Heck, Russia could sell China their entire fleet, and they would still get wooped in a matter of 24 hours... although I'd be interested to see if the US could find their Typhoon missile boats and especially their Alpha subs.. damn those Alphas are slick... but anyways... I'm not so sure you all give China enough credit... no, they couldn't ever defeat the united states in a war, heck.. they'd still get their butt wooped by Russia... but the U.S. has no way to invade them, and with their awesome SAM systems, they wouldn't go after mainland China... maybe with B-2's... but that would be a huge risk to lose one of those, and their industry base and military facilities are too numerous to do any real damage without running out the odds of losing a top of the line aircraft over.

As I said before. The US would eventually gain air supremacy over everything but mainland China, and they would gain instant naval superiority. But the US doesnt have the means to invade China. Stalemate, for better of for worse.

So when did the Chinese have licensce to build the Su-37??? Last time i check they only have licensce to build the SU-27 (upgraded version).. Alpha Subs? Does China have Alpha or Typhoon, I highly doubt it but if so can I have a link?