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And as a question to everybody, what would be the impact on American society (assuming we went there for a self-proclaimed "noble cause," such as freeing the Chinese people, and disarming them of WMD which they beyond the shadow of a doubt have)? Would America have any allies besides Britain? What would our economy be? How will Asian-Americans be treated?
[Edited on 13-4-2004 by sweatmonicaIdo]
Originally posted by Devans28
There are a lot of interesting thoughts on here, and I'd like to share with you all mine. I see the scenario playing out like this:
China will finally hit the point sometime within the next 5 years where they feel they have enough power to retake Taiwan. They will probably issue an ultimatum similar to the one that the USA issued to Iraq.... u got a 3 days or else. Three days would give China enough time to mobilize a massive force opposite the strait to Taiwan and strategically place it's naval and air assets for battle in that general Vacinity. Taiwan would fortify it's positions on shore and in the sea immediately surrounding their turf, and of course cry out to the international community for help. That would be the deciding point. The USA would decide whether a war with China would be worth it or not and basically decide the future of Taiwan. You probably wouldn't hear about the decision on CNN until it was already effected. If war was chosen, the USA could probably have 3 maybe even 4 carrier groups in the area by the time the 3 days were up. As far as groud forces, not nearly enough time to get anything substantial over there, only what they could airlift. China launches hundreds of conventional missiles at strategic targets in Taiwan, and the skies fill with hundreds of Chinese fighters, quickly overwhelming the Taiwanese airforce over the strait and proceed on to Taiwan where they bomb an already heavily damaged Taiwan. Meanwhile, the U.S. carrier fleets have already launched their fighters farther out to sea and probably engage the Chinese air force as they are leaving Taiwan and heading back to the mainland, maybe even get there in time to join in the fight over Taiwan, although with SAM's flying everywhere, that's not where I'd want to be, and I doubt the US would send their planes into that mess. Chinese air force takes massive losses as they are chased back to the chinese mainland. American B2 and other heavy bombers have taken off from bases all over the world and are en route to strategic targets in China. US subs launch copious amounts of cruise missiles at the Chinese airfields to catch the Chinese air force as it returns to reload and refuel using cluster munitions to destroy as many of the returning aircraft, fuel, and munition depots as they can. Most of the missiles will probably come from submarines stationed shockingly close to the Chinese mainland, allowing only a couple of minutes reaction time, not even enough to scramble the aircraft. The US attack submarines that are obviously trailing Chinese naval assets quickly dispatch them and set up shop near Chinese ports and wait in ambush for the coming invasion force to set out. This is probly 10-12 hours of battle. Chinese Air force is heavily damaged, navy is crippled, and Taiwan is a smoldering ruin. North Korea invades south Korea knowing that the USA has all it can handle with China and will probably not be the major target. Seoul is obliterated in a matter of hours by the thousands of artillery pieces and missiles targeted at it even as we speak. 1,000,000 North Korean troops march across the border and quickly overwhelm the much smaller S. Korean/US force. If China knew where the American carrier forces were, that would drastically alter the scenario, as they have large numbers of highly advanced russian anti-ship surface to surface missiles called 'sunburns' they would throw everything they have at the carriers in order to get them out of the picture. US would probly keep carriers farther back in the ocean out of range of these nasty units, thus only being able to engage the Chinese air force over Taiwan as it is in the process of being decemated. After all this played out... Taiwan is trashed, Chinese Air force probably crippled, their Navy gone, unescorted landing craft would be torn to pieces by american attack subs in the strait, so they probly wouldn't even launch an invasion. The US has no means to stage a large scale invasion of China.. if it's even possible against a couple million troops. American cruise missiles pulverise chinese military installations, effectively taking air fields, ports, railroads, bridges, telecommunications stations, and satellites. What now? China waits in the dark with thousands of tanks, couple million troops, untold thousands of SAM's, and an increasingly frustrated command staff with their fingers caressing the big red button. Effective stale mate, and a dangerous one I think.
Now, this would hamper American’s ability to fly over Taiwan and protect it as from launch they’d already be tracked by the S-300’s radar system. Also, missiles fired at mainland would probably be intercepted by the S-300’s as it has a fairly good record.
Now with a system like the S-400 in place. It’s doubtful America could get overly involved. I doubt they’d run the risk of a F-22 getting shot down or a B-2. (The B-2 I personally thing the S-400 can destroy.) But you also get the problem of the S-400 being moveable. They could transport it to Taiwan once they have invaded and in turn catch American planes while they’re refuelling or returning to their ships.
Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
In light of recent events between China and Taiwan, how likely do you think is a confrontation between China and Taiwan? Likelier than a war in the Middle East?
Originally posted by myer7025
Now you might say that China might be able to recruit more soldiers to fight and any loses can be replaced easy for China. But what about the equipment they use. Yes China might have this weapon and that weapon but do they have enough to replace the ones they lost?
Originally posted by myer7025
I read something about if NK attacks SK it was said that SK can win even though it might be devistated by NK units.
Originally posted by Devans28
I've read some very interesting statements that have come up in the last day... but I can't say any are valid. As far as S. Korea being able to fend of N. Korea... not a hope in hell. N. Korea is very outdated, but the have 10-1 what S. korea has including the american garrison there.... in every aspect. There is no way that south korea could stand up... give em 2 days or so before they are effectively defeated.... stragglers after that, but the main objective, Seol will have been destroyed, then occupied. As far as our gung ho American buddy that thinks that Chinese SAM sites are a joke that can be easily negated, remember that these are state of the art Russian systems (s-400) that are equivalent or even better than anything the untited states currently runs. Their aircraft are also top notch, equivalent to f-15's and f-18's... but they have very few. Most of China's aircraft are archaic old Russian jets that are no worry. But the Chinese have licenses from Russia to build these nice aircraft (su-37 etc.) and their numbers will increase by the hundreds if not a thousand a year. No matter what happense, the Chinese will never be able to defeat the Americans in a naval engagement, thus the Chinese would never be able to invade Taiwan. Heck, Russia could sell China their entire fleet, and they would still get wooped in a matter of 24 hours... although I'd be interested to see if the US could find their Typhoon missile boats and especially their Alpha subs.. damn those Alphas are slick... but anyways... I'm not so sure you all give China enough credit... no, they couldn't ever defeat the united states in a war, heck.. they'd still get their butt wooped by Russia... but the U.S. has no way to invade them, and with their awesome SAM systems, they wouldn't go after mainland China... maybe with B-2's... but that would be a huge risk to lose one of those, and their industry base and military facilities are too numerous to do any real damage without running out the odds of losing a top of the line aircraft over.
As I said before. The US would eventually gain air supremacy over everything but mainland China, and they would gain instant naval superiority. But the US doesnt have the means to invade China. Stalemate, for better of for worse.