The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


That ******* auction today spooked people...

I think people are reading WAY TOO MUCH into this...

Obviously, markets didnt think that way today..

But, yesterday was a really strange trading day..?

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

That ******* auction today spooked people...

I think people are reading WAY TOO MUCH into this...

Obviously, markets didnt think that way today..

But, yesterday was a really strange trading day..?

The auction spooked me too. They have over a trillion more dollars left to auction and rates are already rising very quickly and there isn't a whole lot of demand (we now know why the fed announced it would be buying them). I just hope there aren't currency crises like some very astute people are saying like Jim Rogers and Marc Faber (they have been saying it for the past few months).

What is even more "worrisome" is that if the government is forced to not be so free with spending and printing, then they may have to cut programs short that are supposed to help inflate the economy.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


I agree..

I dont think we have enough information though yet...

Didnt the fed say they were going to purchase that many? Or did they say an amount? Or say more?

I cant remember.. Ive been to wrapped up in other things

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

I agree..

I dont think we have enough information though yet...

Didnt the fed say they were going to purchase that many? Or did they say an amount? Or say more?

I cant remember.. Ive been to wrapped up in other things

The fed announced it would purhcase 1.2 trillion dollars in government debt. This was supposedly to lower interest rates in the economy to spur borrowing. There are always other stories beyond stories. I was convinced then and am convinced now even more that it was to keep demand for the debt intact. You have to realize that they haven't even begun selling the longer term treasuries yet...and they think short term treasuries are hard to sell

I don't know....I don't see people deleveraging as such a catastrophie. I don't think making rates lower is going to spur mass borrowing again. Especially if market laws are finally toppling on the government's heads.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Overall 1.2 trillion you mean?

How much did they puchase today?

Sorry, its hard for me to keep up with this, Im not very good with the "internals" of what is happening

So rates are rising b/c people are spooked it will be hard to sell?

Am i saying this correctly?

Are you guys talking about the bond action today?

Benny bought something like $7.5 but there was over $45 billion offered. Treasury announced they will be auctioning $110 Billion in Tsys next week.

^TNX ended the day at 3.35

To early to call whether this might be "it" as far as a bond market dislocation goes but I'm very interested in next week's auction. I'm pretty interested in this as the one speculative position I have right now is TBT.

wow so if you believe in my theory...

this TNX stock (or whatever it is) is going to skyrocket


LInk with 20 50 200 ema


LOOKS VERY BULLISH...

Is this good for us in anyway possible??


EDIT: Can you buy this index or whatever it is, other than purchasing the notes?

EDIT x2 : the 50 EMA needs to cross over as well for my theory to hold merit... you will notice how it failed in MAY 08
[edit on 22-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]

[edit on 22-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

Overall 1.2 trillion you mean?

How much did they puchase today?

Sorry, its hard for me to keep up with this, Im not very good with the "internals" of what is happening

So rates are rising b/c people are spooked it will be hard to sell?

Am i saying this correctly?

I am not sure how much they purchased today. I don't want to assume you don't know this but when you buy a bond, there is the amount you pay and there is the interest rate. Face value is how much the original amount of the bonds are when they are issued. Usually in 1000 dollar increments.

Anyway what happens is, the bond's value either falls or increases when there is more demand/less demand, more supply/less supply just like stocks. When there is MORE demand, the value of the bond goes up and with it the yield goes down and when there is less demand the value goes down and the yield goes up. In the government;s case, the bond's yield is going up because of more supply and less demand.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Yeah, ive studied these things for my test, but it doesnt mean i understand them lol

Actually ^TNX is an index of the US 10 year treasury note. I do believe it is going to skyrocket eventually, but don't think it will be good for anyone. TBT is a double inverse ETF that tracks 20yr treasuries. It's my lotto money on a bond dislocation.

Oh and most T/A is useless on a leveraged etf like TBT due to the slippage. I'm not sure if the same T/A works on bonds as it would on stocks.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
wow so if you believe in my theory...

this TNX stock (or whatever it is) is going to skyrocket


LInk with 20 50 200 ema


LOOKS VERY BULLISH...

Is this good for us in anyway possible??


EDIT: Can you buy this index or whatever it is, other than purchasing the notes?

EDIT x2 : the 50 EMA needs to cross over as well for my theory to hold merit... you will notice how it failed in MAY 08
[edit on 22-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]

[edit on 22-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]

I am so confused when you talk about your theory because I have no idea what it entails.

reply to post by jefwane


I think it would def. hold merit in this instance..

Prob not soo much in ETF like you said.. but you could draw some conclusions

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Look back one page or top of this.. I have like a really long post with historical information

Originally posted by jefwane
Actually ^TNX is an index of the US 10 year treasury note. I do believe it is going to skyrocket eventually, but don't think it will be good for anyone. TBT is a double inverse ETF that tracks 20yr treasuries. It's my lotto money on a bond dislocation.

Oh and most T/A is useless on a leveraged etf like TBT due to the slippage. I'm not sure if the same T/A works on bonds as it would on stocks.

You are right, theoretically technical analysis wouldn't work with leveraged etf's because they decay if things are volatile.

reply to post by jefwane


Why when I look at the charts is this TNX super low when the economy dipped?

Wouldnt it be higher b/c a flight to safety?

Or am I thinking wrong?

BTW.. by looking at the charts.. it is pretty low?

In the 80's I think it was at 15!!!!

LOL!!!

reply to post by GreenBicMan


What the ^TNX (i use the carat because that's how yahoo lists it) is, is the current yield on the US 10 year treasury. It did hit lows when the economy tanked and it was up around 15 in the early eighties at the end of the 70's stagflation and during the Volker Fed chairmanship.

I haven't found an ETF or inverse thereof that tracks the 10 yr so I use TLT and it's double inverse TBT to play bond moves.

The reason the TNX hits lows during tough economic times is exactly because of a flight to safety. The TNX is a measure of yeild on the 10yr. When a flight to safety happens people flock to treasuries raising bond prices and lowering yields.

[edit on 22-5-2009 by jefwane]

reply to post by jefwane


So here are my questions...


1. Does this go lower when the economy is bad or good historically?

2. If it goes down when things are bad, isnt this good?

1. It usually hit lows when there is a flight out of other markets.

2. The TNX rising means that one of the benchmarks of credit is going up. Lots of interest rates are based of the 10 and 20 yr US Tsy. When the yield goes up interest rates often go up.

Originally posted by jefwane
I'm pretty interested in this as the one speculative position I have right now is TBT.

You are more brave than I. Not only because I don't like touching "ultra" etf's and holding them for longer than a day or two but because if bernanke mentions he'll be buying 50bln in treasuries it could get ugly.

reply to post by jefwane


So this means that money is going into equities and credit is getting more expensive on the short term (obama & credit cards)

Does this equate?