The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by GreenBicMan


This explanation helps...

Kondratiev Wave


[edit on 21-5-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by RolandBrichter


Yeah, I mean it makes sense..

The only reason I dont agree with these sort of things is the technology we have now (instantaneous information, all the time) that would leave people immeadiatly (sp?) in a better position to judge information. Like relating the 1930's crash till now, or even the late 60's for that matter.

It is def a trend though.

Ok well I promised a little better in depth explanation as to what I am thinking.

Now, I know basically the market did almost exactly what it had to, which was climb about 70 pts or so in the last 30 mins of trading.. but it has done this before and I believe it will continue to from here (barring tomorrow's close above the weekly 20 EMA)

Now, the only time we have had a recession like this "TECHNICALLY" was in 1974.

Now here is the first chart.. without looking at the numbers on the side, looks ALMOST EXACTLY LIKE OUR CHART NOW, DOESNT IT?

2.21.1974 - 2.21.1975

Now, notice how the 200 DAILY EMA is on top of the 50 DAILY EMA and 50 DAILY EMA is ON TOP of the 20 EMA?

I call this being in the "INVERSE POSITION" (as it should be in the opposite in a bull market)

Now, trust me I have done A *****load of research into this, infact I would say this is my life right now.. so Im giving this to you the best I can.

Now, I want you all to notice how the price does NOT ever close below the 20 DAILY EMA. That is the KEY to all of this.

_______________________________________________________

Now I would like to direct you to


2.21.1974 - 2.21.1977


This is what happens, when the EMA's start to "Cross"

You will notice once the 20 EMA, breaks ABOVE the 200 EMA, the GAME IS ON.

You will look to a chart of the NASDAQ now.. it is very close to this.

Now normally, once the price breaks the 200 EMA DAILY, it will BOUNCE BACK and then shoot HIGHER.. You will see this in the NASDAQ DAILY CHARTS OF TODAY...


nasdaq


Now the important part for $COMPQ here is that the 20 EMA actually breaks the 200 EMA.. so far it HAS NOT.. and if it doesnt, that is a sign of things to come perhaps for the $DJIA...

So Hopefully this helps everyone understand where I am coming from...

This of course is all NON BIASED thought, I GAIN NOTHING AT ALL from posting this of course, which can NOT BE SAID for a lot of what you all are reading from other sources, and I am relaying what I can find to be the BEST INFORMATION AVAILABLE about what has happened in the past, and what is or is not going to happen in the future.

PM ME of course if you need a more in depth explanation of anything.

Originally posted by RolandBrichter
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

Something for you to ponder...

The Mysterious Case of the Vanishing Bull Volume

I have been talking about this for quite a while. The volume irregularities are very strange. I'd like to see EXACTLY who is doing the buying on these huge up days.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


I like what you've done with the place
The 'ol Golden Cross!

I fully see what you're hoping for, but two things...

1) We're looking at a "double top" this month so far for S&P (technically not a good thing), with the most recent top on WEAK volume..

2) The S&P has met great resistance at the 200 DMA and any attempt to break through has been thwarted..

Not to mention the Fibonacci sequences (if the S&P breaks below 880, it's at 888 right now) are showing a likely 30% to 50% retracement...

...you never know in this market, though

edit for SP



[edit on 21-5-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by RolandBrichter


Yeah, every theory has limits..

Mine of course is closing below the lines..

I know things meet resistance in different places..

But I cant argue with history - and if I really didnt believe in this, I wouldnt throw my credibility out there

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Yeah, the guys I talk to are supposed to be "in the know" about these things...EVERYBODY is scratching their heads lately, and all I hear are weird rumors about GS....go figure

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Hey, hats off to ya!! I really do hope you're on to something, and please don't take my posts as trying to detract from your work! Everybody has their theories, and ya just gotta go with your gut sometimes, ya know?

So keep up the good work and put me on "ignore"...I really do like your posts, I just don't have your enthusiasm about this market...

reply to post by RolandBrichter


If u have read my others posts..

I have posted things about GS

I fully believe they are running this market right now..

I also fully believe that BIG MONEY looks exactly at what I look at.. I judge this by a few things.. but mostly how I can be inexplicably correct A LOT OF THE TIME.. its crazy

But back on track to GS.. the LEVEL II movement I am watching lately, well the big blocks are GSCO if you know what I mean.... JPHQ as well... these guys dont **** around...

You talk about no volume and market moving...

When I talk about big money being the ONLY player lately..

Guess which MM's are popping up...

I fully believe there is such a thing as "BIG MONEY" and there are some REAL BIG PLAYERS in these factions calling the shots..

I also believe the retail investor HAS ABSOLUTELY NOT PARTICIPATED the past few weeks-month

reply to post by RolandBrichter


I dont put anyone on ignore.. i dont take any statements as contracting from what I say, rather I would like to hear everyone's opinion, b/c it helps me gauge market sentiment..


EDIT::

I should add too, all I have are opinions as well

[edit on 21-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]

YMM9 FUTURES LOOKING STRONG..

The more I look into this, the more I think Thurs. was one of the biggest head fakes of all time..

But still got 16 hours?

lol


Futures (dow) REAL TIME 1127pm EST Afterhours

I know what your talking about, but I've been seriously burned lately thinking that I understood their moves....the game isn't fair at all, so much collaboration and insider BS, that I just limped to the checkout and put my remaining spare change in metals and oil...No paper positions for me until this crap irons itself out

As far as retail...those poor bastards that got caught last year and earlier this year have been selling into the micro rallies....as I said before...heavy down volume, but light up volume...GS seems to be running the show from the back door,and you could make some serious cash if you knew their game, but I just can't predict their actions

reply to post by RolandBrichter


No one can play their game..

Well, you gotta wear a small black cap on your head (lol)

Unfortunately I lost mine


I like the oil play... dirty oil people (like my dad hahaha) just know this bia*** is moving higher..

I liked copper a lot too, but I havent kept up with those things for a while since I have been programming my auto program

reply to post by RolandBrichter


But really I think the best play in that whole environment is

NATURAL GAS

Got beaten up today...

That is an opinion of course!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RolandBrichter

 

But really I think the best play in that whole environment is

NATURAL GAS

Got beaten up today...

That is an opinion of course!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just because it got beaten up doesn't mean it is a buy yet. The supply glut is very bearish. But it is cheap enough to buy and hold at these levels. Hey, the price is 3.60 from a 17 dollar high.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


This thing is about as low as its going to get (IMO)..

I am a big follower of nat. gas as my dad is a gen. partner in a partnership he makes me follow the hell out of this thing..

This of course is an opinion.. but I invite you just to watch it


EDIT:

BTW - I DIDNT MEAN JUST BECAUSE IT GOT POUNDED IT LOOKS GOOD, I WAS JUST COMMENTING

[edit on 21-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

This thing is about as low as its going to get (IMO)..

I am a big follower of nat. gas as my dad is a gen. partner in a partnership he makes me follow the hell out of this thing..

This of course is an opinion.. but I invite you just to watch it


EDIT:

BTW - I DIDNT MEAN JUST BECAUSE IT GOT POUNDED IT LOOKS GOOD, I WAS JUST COMMENTING

[edit on 21-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Buying some calls may be good. I am just cautious because if oil comes down a little, natural gas probably will as well. I'm getting interested in evergreen solar (eslr) they have been hammered and if oil continues to increase, alternative energy sources will be welcomed. I like most sturdy miners and commodity plays right now, the ones that are up maybe like 40-50% from their 52-week lows.

One move I made right was buying some yen in my forex account.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Better play than I would have made..

When it hit 100.. I thought we would see 120 ...

I STAY OUT OF that stuff though, and for good reason, I got NO CLUE lol

Dow Futures leaking a little bit here...




real time 1235 est

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

Better play than I would have made..

When it hit 100.. I thought we would see 120 ...

I STAY OUT OF that stuff though, and for good reason, I got NO CLUE lol

I like trading currencies. They are much more difficult to manipulate by people because it is so large and it encompasses many large parties (such as foreign governments). And it is 24hrs. Though all I have bought was the yen. I wish I bought the pound. I cannot believe the pound is holding up so well against the dollar with the news that came out about its credit rating.

I just checked the forex markets and the sterling is down against the yen, euro and franc but is up against the dollar. Weird.