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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on May, 22 2009 @ 12:54 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


Basically the TNX is a benchmark. By and large a corporation offering a 10yr note is going to pay several basis points higher in coupon (interest)than the TNX based on credit quality. So the TNX going higher means that anything seen as less credit worthy than the US .gov is going to pay higher interest on any debt it incurrs through a bond issue.




posted on May, 22 2009 @ 12:55 AM
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reply to post by jefwane
 


which is everyone then i suppose//

what do you think about USA losing AAA credit rating??

I say no way, we are not the USA anymore if we lose AAA credit rating..



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 12:59 AM
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Im about to throw up here..

Dont tell me we are going into another dow tail spin...

futures...



puke



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 01:00 AM
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The ^TNX must be a contract on the 10-year trasury interest rates. So you'd need to be able to trade futures to buy this I would assume.



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 01:03 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Im about to throw up here..

Dont tell me we are going into another dow tail spin...

futures...



puke



Relax futures mean zilch...how many times have futures incorrectly determined the next day's market? The most it can do is tell where the markets will open a few hours before 9:30.



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 01:09 AM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


It is, I don't have the stack or the testicular fortitude to get into futures, but I've found the TLT as a good proxy for it.

Benny bought around $7.5 billion in Tsys today out of about $45 billion offered. US Tres will be auctioning $110 billion next week.

[edit on 22-5-2009 by jefwane]



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 01:55 AM
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www.bloomberg.com...

Geithner pledges to cut U.S. Budget in face of possible credit downgrade.

Also in the article, famous billionaire bond trader Bill Gross at Pimco said that the U.S. will lose its AAA rating "eventually".




posted on May, 22 2009 @ 03:45 AM
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Hmmm... :shk: ...another power grab...nice...not



U.S. May Strip SEC of Powers in Regulatory Overhaul
news.yahoo.com...

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration may call for stripping the Securities and Exchange Commission of some of its powers under a regulatory reorganization that could be unveiled as soon as next week, people familiar with the matter said.

The proposal, still being drafted, is likely to give the Federal Reserve more authority to supervise financial firms deemed too big to fail. The Fed may inherit some SEC functions, with others going to other agencies, the people said. On the table: giving oversight of mutual funds to a bank regulator or a new agency to police consumer-finance products, two people said.

The 75-year-old SEC, chartered to oversee Wall Street and safeguard investors, has seen its reputation tarnished as some lawmakers blamed it for missing the incipient financial crisis and failing to detect Bernard Madoff’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme. Any move to rein in the agency is likely to provoke a battle in Congress, which would need to approve the changes, and draw the ire of union pension funds and other advocates for shareholders.

“It would be a terrible mistake,” said Stanley Sporkin, a former federal judge and SEC enforcement chief. “Whatever the SEC has done or didn’t do, it is still the premier investor protection agency around.”
More at Link...

Feds close Florida thrift in biggest failure this year

www3.signonsandiego.com...

UPDATE 1-Taiwan economy shrinks record pace, outlook cut
news.alibaba.com...

[edit on 5/22/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 05:02 AM
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DXY 79.93v :shk:

Someones TRYING to beat the other currencys down but it ain't working...Hmmm :shk:

TNX 34.25^

===
S&P 500 +5.90 894.60 5/22 5:46am
Fair Value 886.93 5/21 9:41pm
Difference* +7.67

NASDAQ +9.50 1377.00 5/22 4:32am
Fair Value 1366.83 5/21 9:41pm
Difference* +10.17

Dow Jones +45.00 8340.00 5/22 4:56am
===
FTSE 100 4,367.75 5:46AM ET Up 22.28 (0.51%)
CAC 40 3,242.74 6:02AM ET Up 25.33 (0.79%)
DAX 4,940.59 5:47AM ET Up 39.92 (0.81%)
===
Shanghai Composite 2,597.60 3:00AM ET Down 13.02 (0.50%)
Hang Seng 17,062.52 5:46AM ET Down 136.97 (0.80%)
Nikkei 225 9,225.81 3:00AM ET Down 38.34 (0.41%)
===
Gold $960.96v

DOLLAR PLUNGE OFFSET BY FED'S FEARS
www.forexhound.com...

Mexico to Lose Over 600,000 Jobs This Year
www.laht.com...

Oh GBM where are you??? *whistles while swimming in gold pool...*


[edit on 5/22/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 09:41 AM
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can you say volatility?? You could impale someone on that 50 point spike! Talk about moving big money..... I don't think it will hold, I believe this rally has run it's course.



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 10:00 AM
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More Raping of the Taxpayer...it never ends



TARP Warrant Sale Shows Banks May Reap ‘Ruthless Bargain’
www.bloomberg.com...

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Banks negotiating to reclaim stock warrants they granted in return for Troubled Asset Relief Program money may shortchange taxpayers by almost $10 billion if Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s first sale sets the pace, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

While 17 financial institutions have repaid TARP funds, only one has come to terms with the U.S. on the value of the rights to buy stock that taxpayers received for the risk of recapitalizing the industry. That was Old National Bancorp in Evansville, Indiana, which gave the Treasury Department $1.2 million for warrants that may have been worth $5.81 million, according to the data.

If Geithner makes the same deal for all companies in the rescue program, lenders may walk away with 80 percent of profits taxpayers might have claimed.

“For once we’d like to get a fair value when we come into contact with the banking system,” said Representative Brad Miller, a North Carolina Democrat and chairman of the Investigations and Oversight Subcommittee of House Science and Technology Committee. “We don’t want a ruthless bargain.”
More at Link...

[edit on 5/22/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 10:26 AM
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Chasing The Diminishing Marginal Buyer


In a flagrant example of chasing the marginal buyer as others offload their shares, Morgan Stanley just came out with a research piece which upgrades the price targets of virtually all banks by 33% on average (better known as stratospheric escape velocity).

It would seem Goldman's upgrades are not sufficient to bring the slowest, marginal buyer into the fray - the effort has now gone viral. Most amusing is the Bank Of America new target price which is increased from $25 to $32: quick, if readers call and buy at least 100 BAC shares in the next 10 minutes, they can lock in a phenomenal, unprecedented, one-time 180% upside to target. In fact, if you buy now, you will also get not one, not two, but 4 Sham-Wows to soak up the tears in 3 months when the upside to the new target will be roughly 1000%.

[snip]

Among Morgan Stanley's key bullet points which are supposed to bring mom and pop bank stock buyer out of hibernation are:

* Raising price targets on the large-cap banks by 33%, on average, due to lower betas and a resulting lower cost of equity (lower beta? we hope MS realizes that financial stocks ARE beta these days, as for lower cost of equity, that will likely be better evaluated once State Street and BoNY actually allows shorting in financials to return)

* TARP: We think most banks will repay TARP by 4Q09 (well, duh - someone has to get paid bonuses without Barney Frank having a say in it)

* We use 2012 for normalized earnings (phew, most others are pricing in 2049 future earnings: good to see that MS retains credibility and has really good visibility over the next 3 years)
* Attractive industry view. We believe the risk of the bear case has been significantly reduced (you don't say)

In other news: tomorrow BAC upgrades BAC on the thesis that other banks will upgrade it.

P.S. Amusingly, in the compost heap of vile intentions known formerly as the equity market, BAC now is down while RF (which had the dubious distinction of being the only stock which had its TP lowered by MS) is up.





posted on May, 22 2009 @ 10:27 AM
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Hilarious...

Source


In a flagrant example of chasing the marginal buyer as others offload their shares, Morgan Stanley just came out with a research piece which upgrades the price targets of virtually all banks by 33% on average (better known as stratospheric escape velocity).






It would seem Goldman's upgrades are not sufficient to bring the slowest, marginal buyer into the fray - the effort has now gone viral. Most amusing is the Bank Of America new target price which is increased from $25 to $32: quick, if readers call and buy at least 100 BAC shares in the next 10 minutes, they can lock in a phenomenal, unprecedented, one-time 180% upside to target. In fact, if you buy now, you will also get not one, not two, but 4 Sham-Wows to soak up the tears in 3 months when the upside to the new target will be roughly 1000%.


The game is almost over...they've resorted to squeezing the last bit of juice out of the turnips...



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 11:30 AM
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The real action is the currency markets. The U.S. dollar is down in all of them yet again.

EURO 1.4028 +1%
Pound 1.5914 +.47%
Yen 94.45 +.06%

If you remember, during 2007 when everyone was worried about inflation because oil was 147$/barrel the Euro was around 1.60 and the Pound was 2.00. The yen has already had a fantastic move up.



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 11:34 AM
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TNX 34.48

DNX 79.81v



10 Yr is getting clubbed the past two days...

Can anyone say, ~*Kablooey*~

Eastern Markets got clubbed also...
finance.yahoo.com...

Gold $958.85^

Oil $61.26^

GEN MOTORS 1.59 1:34PM ET Down 0.33 (17.15%) 179,288,050

[edit on 5/22/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 12:49 PM
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BAC's price action has been puzzling as of late. There have been some theories going around that there is arbitrage in the stock. The people who bought the 800million share offering for 10 dollar/share are shorting the stock and will cover when they sell the shares they bought so iit doesn't spike the price up. They did this with CITI too. It just demonstrates this game is very rigged for the small investor



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 01:21 PM
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Heh...Could have been worse... :shk: ...another "variant" on Better than Expected...

That work for you Marg???



Banks hit with one-time fee, but it could have been worse
New borrowing authority eases the pain of replenishing FDIC insurance fund
May 22, 2009, 2:17 p.m. EST

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - To replenish the fund that protects depositors from bank failures, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. approved a special fee on banks that should bring in $5.6 billion.

The FDIC voted 4-1 Friday to impose a 5-basis-point charge on each bank's assets excluding required capital. The fee is payable by Sept. 30.

That means banks must pay 5 cents into the fund for each $100 of assets they had in excess of their required Tier 1 capital at the end of the second quarter.

The amount is significantly less than the $15 billion the FDIC expected to bring in from the one-time fee when the agency first considered it in February. The FDIC was able to reduce the assessment after legislation was signed giving it greater ability to borrow from the Treasury. See full story.

The FDIC board also said it might impose an additional special charge in the third and fourth quarters if needed to raise additional funds for the deposit insurance fund.
More at Link...



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 02:19 PM
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Originally posted by Rockpuck
can you say volatility??

Volality, volatula . . . Wait. Once again. Vovolati . . . Volvo . . . Let's change the subject.

So when the Dow is in the minus territory and red, GM shares are way up.



When the Dow is plus and green, GM shares are way down.



It's seems to me that those aspiring Buffetts lost the sense of direction or don't want to go with the flow (the insider way to riches.)

There is also a chance that Rockpuck did some woodoo tricks to discombobulate the senses of those market speculators who imagine themselves driving a GM-made car through the gate of a Bel Air mansion to meet their real estate agent, coz Rockpuck doesn't like General Motors. That's why he drives a Bentley.


[edit on 5/22/2009 by stander]



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 02:30 PM
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reply to post by stander
 
Hmmm... :shk: ...


GM bondholders should sell their debt: adviser
May 22, 2009, 3:11 p.m. EST

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The best strategy for investors holding General Motors bonds is to sell the securities, said Michael Kalscheur, a financial consultant at Castle Wealth Advisors in Indianapolis, Indiana. "Conservative clients that own GM bonds should strongly consider selling them, just as any other speculative investment," he said Friday, as the automaker looked increasingly likely to file for bankruptcy. "We have no idea how this is going to turn out," especially given how bondholders have fared in the Chrysler bankruptcy, he said. GM has around 100,000 individual bondholders, holding about 20% of the company's $27 billion in outstanding debt, according to 60 Plus, a senior advocacy group that is lobbying lawmakers for individuals who hold GM bonds. GM shares plunged 24% to $1.46 on Friday.



posted on May, 22 2009 @ 03:10 PM
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Originally posted by Hx3_1963
reply to post by stander
 
Hmmm... :shk: ...


GM bondholders should sell their debt: adviser
May 22, 2009, 3:11 p.m. EST

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The best strategy for investors holding General Motors bonds is to sell the securities, said Michael Kalscheur, a financial consultant at Castle Wealth Advisors in Indianapolis, Indiana. "Conservative clients that own GM bonds should strongly consider selling them, just as any other speculative investment," he said Friday, as the automaker looked increasingly likely to file for bankruptcy. "We have no idea how this is going to turn out," especially given how bondholders have fared in the Chrysler bankruptcy, he said.

You now Hex, When buy GM stock, you are a shareholder, not a bondholder.

Rockpuck and his woodoo tricks move the GM shares up and down.

Try again.



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