10/9/08 - FSME Denninger Special Report - IT'S HERE!

reply to post by Relentless


I think you are exaggerating this incredibly. Anyone who lived through 1973-1974 would tell you the same. They lost 45% of the stock value. This bear market is "worse" than the bear market of 1987 and after because its more drawn out of a beating.

Now, at no point am I saying its going to return to highs. There is no chance of that for MANY years. I am saying it is going to balance out. IMO it won't be another 15-20 years before we see highs like 2007. But we will start to see positive numbers again. Is it a major set back? Sure. Is it the meltdown you are talking about, no. Its normal. Its bad, but its normal.

I dont know if its the fact that people just didn't care when it happened before or what, but this percentage decline happened in 73-74, we had a worse single day percentage decline in 87, and we have seen our fair share of recessions.

The fact is, this crisis hasn't even taken form yet. Aside from the stock market, there is little to actually show, at this time, that a crisis has occured. Jobs are STARTING to be effected by hour cuts, less production, etc. but that happens during EVERY recession. Negative GDP is how you define a recession. If it were live as usual, it wouldn't be a recession.

Maybe last time your sector didnt get hit, so you didn't notice as much of a change.

There is still nothing to indication any imminent meltdown, or even a depression.

reply to post by Relentless


On a side note, if what you saying does come to existance monday and tuesday, some weeks worth of food won't make much a difference if you can't continue on after that. The kind of meltdown you are talking about isn't just a "catastrophe" that a month or two from then things will be back in order. Its a full blown destruction of the system. Martial Law would be put in place, thats an easy starting point.

I'm not an alarmist, and I dont believe that what you posted will come to be, but if it does, the american way of life is gone. Not just momentarily either. Our system of government and economic will be gone, indefinately. I won't have any trouble, since Im a survivalist, but many can't say the same.

Stocking up on food won't do much good. Either the government will take military control and continue to supply food, or there won't be anywhere to get food for months.

Relentless' reputation is not lost.

It just went through the roof:

IMF in Global 'Meltdown' Warning

Enough said.

I find the alarmist tone of this thread rather alarming!

Relentless, I think you have been extremely irresponsible in encouraging this fervor. As has been stated numerous times throughout this thread, and is commonly known, the absolute worst thing you can do under these circumstances is cause a panic. If everyone withdraws their money from banks you will only make things worse, perhaps even cause this 'apocalypse' by self-fulfilling prophesy. Everyone would then be running around with cash that will be worthless in any case.

While this may yet come to pass, why cause this pointless hysteria now if it's too late anyway? 24-48 hours? Please...

That economist should have began a wide-scale campaign months ago to make people understand what is going on and demand transparency in government and regulation of Wall Street. In fact I don't think it's too late for that, demand transparency NOW!!

reply to post by botiemaster



You know you can't take one line out of context like that The point in posting a quote is to encourage people to read the link. I defend the poster's use of the word in the contect of a credit freeze and it's repercussions. You can choose not to.

I hope I wake up Tuesday morning to the same world as I knew it (actually, that's not quite an accurate statement, because I've seen it in the toilet for a long time now, and I want better than that).

I just don't see how it can be anymore after the past two - three weeks, something has to give big time, and I'm not so sure ( in fact I'm fairly certain) the repercussions of the changes that have to be made over this weekend are not going to be pretty.

Did you read the reports coming in from all over the world the night the thread started? There were meltdowns flying all over the place. Have you looked at the links I've posted today to other threads here on ATS?

Here - try something new:

Lehman Bros Demise

Lehman Brothers, the bust investment bank, triggered one of the biggest corporate debt defaults in history yesterday as it emerged that the US Federal Reserve is harbouring grave concerns about whether Washington’s $700 billion (£413 billion) bailout fund will avert a financial meltdown.

Wait guys - in case you don't read the link, here's some really calming quotes.

Amid the mayhem across the world’s stock markets, senior Fed officials now doubt whether Washington’s bailout fund will work unless it is launched in some form in the next two weeks.

News flash! That is not in their time frame. Wait a minute - The Fed miscalculated again? (extreme sarcasm).

It is understood that the Fed believes that this will be too late to help the banks that are suffocating under market conditions. Credit markets have frozen up and many banks have been cut off from being able to borrow from one another.

Ahem - credit markets have frozen???? This article is dated today. This is EXACTLY what the original post Thursday night was warning of.

Sean Egan, of the Egan-Jones ratings agency, said: “This is a killer. Lehman said a month ago that it was in terrific shape and now you can’t even get ten cents on the dollar for its debt.

“It underscores the deep structural flaws in our financial system, knocks confidence in the financial markets and raises the cost of capital. It also demonstrates that we are experiencing not only a crisis of confidence, but a crisis.”

One thing I'm wondering about is the US has a holiday on Monday not celebrated in the rest of the world (Columbus Day). I'm pretty sure our markets are closed since the banks and post office is. So we get a preview from the rest of the world beofre our markets open on Tuesday? Lucky us.

Originally posted by The_Modulus

As has been stated numerous times throughout this thread, and is commonly known, the absolute worst thing you can do under these circumstances is cause a panic. If everyone withdraws their money from banks you will only make things worse, perhaps even cause this 'apocalypse' by self-fulfilling prophesy.

That is a load of bull, I have seen that line of logic all week. "If you do start taking money out of the bank you might actually start a bank run." Isn't that the point of taking your money first? If the conditions exist such that by withdrawing from the bank causes a failure, you have done the right thing! He who hesitates loses!

OKAY, I'm having a problem of logic here.

Most of the conspiracy threads say it's the big bankers, the bilderbergers, the Illuminati, etc who really run the show.

If they are also behind the financial collapse, then who do we hurt, who do we really bankrupt by making the big banks fail?

Hello???

If their power is in financial control and we take our financial assets away from their reach, who loses?

reply to post by Mainer


He who hesitates loses. Ha! That is exactly the mentality that major investors had at the cusp of this collapse. They though, "Screw everybody else! I'm getting MY money!" and now everyone has to suffer. (I understand that this is not the cause of the problem)

And granted, the banks may fail completely, in which case everyone will lose, and it would have been better to withdraw. But we are trying to prevent such an occurance.

reply to post by redhatty


The problem is governments, or at least those in the know in governments, were complacent in allowing this to happen. The US government has the best economists in the world following their markets, there is no way they were not aware of the bubble of non-existent money major banks were passing around.

Originally posted by Relentless

One thing I'm wondering about is the US has a holiday on Monday not celebrated in the rest of the world (Columbus Day). I'm pretty sure our markets are closed since the banks and post office is.

The Googles know all. Markets open, banks closed.

Say, if you were going to pick the best day to detonate the market...

Originally posted by The_Modulus

And granted, the banks may fail completely, in which case everyone will lose, and it would have been better to withdraw. But we are trying to prevent such an occurance.

We like you and me? We like ATS? If its the we like the United States, then I hate to tell you but the people in charge there already have their money.

Originally posted by The_Modulus
reply to post by redhatty

 

The problem is governments, or at least those in the know in governments, were complacent in allowing this to happen. The US government has the best economists in the world following their markets, there is no way they were not aware of the bubble of non-existent money major banks were passing around.

Of course the BEST Economists were aware, but the ones that are part of the Talking Heads on the MSM are not the "Best".

The Best economics have been screaming from the rooftops for a long time now, but their voices have been suppressed by the MSM and ignored by CONgress.

The average Joe 6 Pack doesn't even know who the real economic experts are, they are following the very un-sage advice of the MSM talking heads.

But that still doesn't answer the question? If the Big Bankers are the ones pulling the strings and We The People cause them to crash, who really loses?

Originally posted by The_Modulus
Relentless, I think you have been extremely irresponsible in encouraging this fervor.

So sorry - I call em as I see em, and I've never done this before - ergo - I think this is serious enough to do (and I'm new at it )

If everyone withdraws their money from banks you will only make things worse, perhaps even cause this 'apocalypse' by self-fulfilling prophesy.

Ya know, no one has even said to do this, certainly not me, in fact I spoke against it.

That economist should have began a wide-scale campaign months ago to make people understand what is going on and demand transparency in government and regulation of Wall Street.

He has been - for longer than that even, which is why I have been sharing his work here for some time. In fact, every Congressman/woman and Senator was flooded with his demands for transparency and a true fix for a bailout (it stopped the first vote because a clear majority of constiuents said "DON'T DO THIS" . Of course later in the week the Senate backdoored it (ignoring their constiuents, to the point of their office staff hanging up on callers) and then the CONgress caved too.

Sorry it took an "alarmist" post for anyone to pay any attention to it.

Originally posted by The_Modulus
The problem is governments, or at least those in the know in governments, were complacent in allowing this to happen. The US government has the best economists in the world following their markets, there is no way they were not aware of the bubble of non-existent money major banks were passing around.

They knew, if the rest of us here on an outpost full of amateurs knew, they knew. How could anyone be reading ATS for the last year and not have seen this coming?

Originally posted by pause4thought
Relentless' reputation is not lost.

It just went through the roof:

IMF in Global 'Meltdown' Warning

Enough said.

I thought part of these guys jobs were to overstate positives and understate negatives?

Originally posted by Mainer
The Googles know all. Markets open, banks closed.

Say, if you were going to pick the best day to detonate the market...

OHMYFREAKINGOSH!

Thanks Mainer - the thought never even occurred to me, at least it's cocktail hour.

reply to post by Mainer


You speak the unfortunate truth...

Relentless:

I know you said nothing about bank runs, and I understand your alarmist tone completely, the fact is, it is an alarming situation! And I, like you, am near breaking point with the corrupt 'system' and what it has caused. This should not be happening.

I also just picked up that article pause4thought refers... scary BBC Meltdown Article. This may well come true.

Originally posted by The_Modulus
But we are trying to prevent such an occurance.

Sorry, but I must ask - who exactly is this "we" you speak of??????

Originally posted by Relentless

Originally posted by The_Modulus
But we are trying to prevent such an occurance.

Sorry, but I must ask - who exactly is this "we" you speak of??????

Humanity at large! All of us! But I understand your point...

Originally posted by Mainer

Originally posted by pause4thought
Relentless' reputation is not lost.

It just went through the roof:

IMF in Global 'Meltdown' Warning

Enough said.

I thought part of these guys jobs were to overstate positives and understate negatives?

True. But we just reached that point where it's staring everyone in the face to such a degree they either admit it or end up sounding like Chemical Ali.