We gotta give some of the scoffers a break, remember they are in great company:
From a “Wall Street Analysis” by Thomas C. Shotwell in “The World Almanac for 1929”:
“The market is following natural laws of economics and there is no reason why both prosperity and the market should not continue for years at
this high level or even higher.”
Bernard Baruch, financier and presidential adviser, in The American Magazine, June 1929:
“The economic condition of the world seems on the verge of a great forward movement.”
The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 23, 1929:
“The outlook for the fall months seems brighter than at any time.”
Irving Fisher, professor of economics at Yale University, in The New York Times, Sept. 6, 1929. He ended up losing much of his wealth in the crash:
“There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.”
The Wall Street Journal, Sept. 11, 1929, quoting Mark Twain in its thought for the day:
“Don’t part with your illusions; when they are gone, you may still exist, but you have ceased to live.”
Arthur Reynolds, chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, Oct. 24, 1929:
“This crash is not going to have much effect on business.”
The New York Times, Oct. 26, 1929:
“Cautioning against hysterical selling, brokerage houses in their market letters this morning will strike a note of optimism, advising the
purchase of seasoned stocks at the present low levels. The public is strongly urged not to liquidate stocks in the present market.”
J. L. Julian, a partner in the financial firm Fenner & Beane, in The New York Times, Oct. 26, 1929:
“The worst is over. The selling yesterday was panicky brought on by hysteria. General conditions are good. Our inquiries assure us that
throughout the country business is sound.”
The Harvard Economic Society, November 1929:
“A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability. We are not facing protracted liquidation.”
Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, Nov. 15, 1929:
“Financial storm definitely passed.”
President Herbert Hoover on Dec. 3, 1929, in a speech before a joint session of Congress:
“I am convinced ... we have re-established confidence. Wages should remain stable. A very large degree of industrial unemployment and
suffering which would otherwise have occurred has been prevented.”
Treasury Secretary Andrew W. Mellon, Dec. 31, 1929, in a statement issued while he was yachting off Nassau, the Bahamas, on his winter vacation:
“I see nothing ... in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism. During the winter months there may be some
slackness or unemployment but hardly more than at this season each year. I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the
spring, and that during the coming year the country will make steady progress.”
Of course, not everyone was so optimistic.
Roger Babson, a well-known businessman and publisher of business and financial statistics, offered this warning in a speech before a business
conference in Wellesley, Mass., on Sept. 5, 1929:
“More people are borrowing and speculating today than ever in our history. Sooner or later a crash is coming and it may be terrific. Wise are
those investors who now get out of debt and reef their sails.”
It should be noted, perhaps, that the year before, Mr. Babson had said that
“the election of Hoover and a Republican Congress should result
in continued prosperity in 1929.”
[edit on 10/11/08 by redhatty]
