Originally posted by toepick
Any idea what the Bond markets are going to do tomorrow since they were closed today?
How do you 'watch' the bond markets anyways...I'm kind of a noob when it comes to all this; but thanks to Relentless, KD and even Grim! (and a TON
of personal reading) I think I've learned more about the economy and the markets then I ever thought possible..I like it to, might even have to think
about going to school for it now, hmm..
I am also concerned about the EU saying they will insure everything now. And the US is doing the same. So what happens if more Icelands
happen. And from what I'm reading they're not out of the woods yet over there.
look for the yields on the treasury rates i.e 3 month (T-bill), 10 year(T-note) , 30 year (T- bond)
when yields fall = bond prices are rising = money moving into bonds
an example would be looking at a 10 year treasury note yielding 4.03 on monday and yielding 3.80 on friday = yields drop/prices rise money moving
lots of times during market stress money shifts from stocks and commodity's into the bond markets
when stocks fall and bond yields rise/price's fall money usually is moving out of the country (into stronger currency) or into commodity's.
Also during times of stress, the most "liquid" investment is a 3 month Treasury bill and you will see yields go close to zero, this means there is
lots of risk in the markets and people seek the safety of the 3 month treasury bill- because you have to hold the treasury bills/notes/bonds until
maturity, and this is a good spot to park your money safely.
The problem is potentially that with the gov't and treasury insuring all these banks and interlending rates that should they stupidly allow another
investment bank to fail the gov't and treasury will be on the hook (I beleive) and should house prices continue to fall (they will) the banks will
continue to post losses ( and the gov't will be on the hook for any continued stress that occurs from this in the financial industry.
So the banks succeded in gaining tons of leverage over the economy, they became too important to fail, then they took so much risk (knowing that the
gov't would save there butt's, and that the ceo's would get huge bonuses/parachutes) that the gov't in effect took the noose around the hurting
banks and hung it around there own necks, should there be any more potential blow-ups down the road.
and based on quoted speeches by certain people at old bilderberg meetings as well as the writing of carroll quigley in tradedgy and hope, the end
PLAN for those in powerful positions is a world financial body and intelligence agency's that in effect replace sovering nations'/gov'ts , and my
guess would be that from where we are now, there will be additional stresses on the govt's over the next two years that take us there!
as far as the last paragraph goes, it is really not "tinfoil" at all, i would suggest you read tragedy and hope, Quigley was a globalist, he was
allowed by the CFR to study all there documents and came to that conclusion (quite confidently) difference was he was trying to tell people and
"educate" them about the idea of globalism, while most other globalists tip toe around the plan.
[edit on 14-10-2008 by cpdaman]