posted on Jun, 25 2008 @ 04:09 AM
Originally posted by kattraxx
reply to post by Sky watcher
6.0 Mw - NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude 6.0 Mw
Date-Time 25 Jun 2008 02:53:28 UTC
Yes, I wonder if this is the foreshock for the bigger EQ JustMike predicted earlier?
That quake has now been downgraded to a 5.6...which is a pretty significant reduction. But it was only a prelim report and such revisions are not
uncommon, especially when they are using data from instruments based a long way from the epicenter, as was likely the case here.
Anyway...Down to details...
I am stating the following to clarify things for whoever reads this, not specifically for Kat.
That quake, which occurred at 4:53 am my time today (6/25), about 6 1/2 hours after
that contains the prediction, is not
the one which is the
subject of that prediction. My indications are that there will be a larger quake, but I expect it will be further south and at least a magnitude more
powerful than this 5.6, so I don't take this one as a direct precursor. This is because Mag 5-something quakes are quite common in Indonesia, so much
so that they are not useful as precursors for the (comparatively) much rarer high-6 to mag 7 quakes that can occur in that region. Simply put, my
indications for that prediction are not based on the frequency of mag-5 quakes that region experiences.
For any readers new to this thread: our methods of prediction are quite diverse and also are experimental
. None of us make any claims of being
100% accurate or even close to that. We are still gathering data and assessing what methods seem to be producing results. And most importantly, we are
very serious about this: we well appreciate that strong quakes can cause great suffering and loss, and our sole purpose is to investigate possible
ways to try and predict such events with some degree of accuracy.