An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by kattraxx


Prediction: 6/22: Alaska, >6.0 or in water or of volcanic origin
EQ: Alaska 4.1, in water

4.1, 6/25

I forgot to mention the freqency of quakes in this area. I have lived here for 40+ years, and in all that time they were unheard of here, until last year. I was at work and heard the loudest screaching sound I have ever heard, like somebody running their finger around a crystal glass only magnified x unbelievable. Then shaking and it stopped. Our city sit on top of a rock that extends from southern Atlanta to a total of 4 states. Another words there is a solid rock formation under all of us. In our area that rock ends just below this county. You can drive for 30 mintutes and you are in alabama and there is a place called Little River Canyon that rival the grand canyon. The rock begins in Stone Mountian GA, and it is just that , a gigantic stone that goes under 4 states. Stone Mountian just happens to be where it protrudes from the ground. The guy that carved Mt Rushmore carved Stone Mountian first, with a Civil war scene. It is a quite famous park now.

reply to post by space cadet


I didn't know that, about Little River Canyon or Stone Mountain. I'm glad you're feeling somewhat better anyway. Try eating corn, in any form, for your more intense precursor symptoms; that's what Charlotte recommends.

I was just noticing that Central California is picking up, especially The Pinnacles area. Not a 4.0 "hit", but notable for the increase in the past two days... a 3.0, and a 2.4 and 2.7, a few +1.5's.

Pinnacles EQs

reply to post by space cadet


Offshore El Salvador, 4.4

Still waiting on Columbia, first choice... Brazil or Peru, second choice....

reply to post by kattraxx

That 3.6 quake off Oregon occurred at 2:44 am my time on (Tues) 6/24, but I can state with certainty that I did not see a blue square at its location at any time during Tuesday. The last time I checked was near midnight my time on 6/24 and even then it wasn't displayed. So, it must have appeared after then, meaning there was more than a twenty hour delay in posting it. However, this is nothing new...there was a similar delay in USGS posting the mag 3.8 which occurred in the same region shortly after midnight on June 17 (UTC). Details and screen shots that prove USGS delayed posting that event may be found in my post here.

There was also a delay in USGS posting a mag 3.8 quake that occurred in this same region on June 18 at 13:19 UTC. This time, the delay was only about four or five hours. I give details in my post on that date, but this time I had no "before and after" screen shots for proof so my statement that it was delayed can be disputed.

Does anyone have screen shots for that off-coast Oregon region for 6/24? I didn't do any yesterday because IMO there was nothing new there to save.

reply to post by kattraxx

Because the live link won't show all the details now, here's a screen shot of that flurry of six small quakes in Cal (and one new one in NV). I got it just before heading off to bed last night

Originally posted by kattraxx
reply to post by Sky watcher

 

6.0 Mw - NIAS REGION, INDONESIA
Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude 6.0 Mw
Date-Time 25 Jun 2008 02:53:28 UTC

Yes, I wonder if this is the foreshock for the bigger EQ JustMike predicted earlier?

That quake has now been downgraded to a 5.6...which is a pretty significant reduction. But it was only a prelim report and such revisions are not uncommon, especially when they are using data from instruments based a long way from the epicenter, as was likely the case here.

Anyway...Down to details...

I am stating the following to clarify things for whoever reads this, not specifically for Kat.

That quake, which occurred at 4:53 am my time today (6/25), about 6 1/2 hours after my post that contains the prediction, is not the one which is the subject of that prediction. My indications are that there will be a larger quake, but I expect it will be further south and at least a magnitude more powerful than this 5.6, so I don't take this one as a direct precursor. This is because Mag 5-something quakes are quite common in Indonesia, so much so that they are not useful as precursors for the (comparatively) much rarer high-6 to mag 7 quakes that can occur in that region. Simply put, my indications for that prediction are not based on the frequency of mag-5 quakes that region experiences.

For any readers new to this thread: our methods of prediction are quite diverse and also are experimental. None of us make any claims of being 100% accurate or even close to that. We are still gathering data and assessing what methods seem to be producing results. And most importantly, we are very serious about this: we well appreciate that strong quakes can cause great suffering and loss, and our sole purpose is to investigate possible ways to try and predict such events with some degree of accuracy.

Mike

this does make sense, as has been said, animals do weird things all the time before something such as an earthquake.

They aren't getting all that much out very fast on the whole. I was surprised like I said that it took Fox News 24 hours to report that 4 quake near LA.

Also a question for you guys. I know Cal. has its fire season but is 800 fires at one time normal, they say lightning from the storms. My question is this:

Could any of these fires be caused by ground heat we aren't aware of? I wouldn't think because the ground I would assume would have to be very hot but we need to think out of the box also.

Okay in the last week 19th-24th. 3 to 4 mag.

19th Smoke Creek, NV. 3.2
Tres Pinos, CA. 3.8

21st. San Ardo, CA. 3.4
Pelrolia, CA. 3.0

23rd. Loma Linda, CA. 4.0

24th Anza, CA. 3.0
Pinnacles, CA. 3.0

I don't know these areas can there be any connections made by drawing lines.......Faults, Volcanoes etc.

Yup Mike there is the 6 Sumatra, Indonesia.

I feel like a hand is going over my head saying it's just over my head and I'm not getting it.

They say at least a 6 every three days so this I will watch

I see Japan had a +5.0 today. I felt Japan this morning, but didn't think it was over a 4.0.

I'm still getting Japan, so possibly a larger mag than today's coming still.

I see Mexico has a little swarm happening near Guadalupe Victoria, but nothing significant yet.

Also, the South Pacific is coming in pretty good right now... New Zealand, Fiji, New Guinea, Guam, Hawaii.

reply to post by kattraxx

Still waiting on Columbia, first choice... Brazil or Peru, second choice....

Magnitude 5.2 - CENTRAL PERU
2008 June 26 00:06:41 UTC

Peru

Not ruling out Columbia or Bolivia in the next couple days yet.

Same area in Mexico shaking again.

MAP 3.7 2008/06/26 01:42:35 32.287 -115.294 0.2 17 km ( 11 mi) W of Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico
MAP 3.0 2008/06/25 22:15:33 32.205 -115.304 17.0 21 km ( 13 mi) WSW of Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico
MAP 3.4 2008/06/25 20:24:56 32.215 -115.314 28.4 21 km ( 13 mi) WSW of Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico

Mexico, 3.7

[edit on 6/25/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx


Wow they are having a nice little swarm right there in Baja. Its on the same fault as the one that runs through L.A., Thats not good as they have all been decent sized.
I don't like the fact that Seattle is still being circled by quakes not to mention the swarm of quakes right next to that volcano in northern Oregon Mt. Hood. I am going to predict that the USGS upgrades the alert status on that bad boy very soon.

Okay I have been keeping a check on the UFO activity and sightings posted at NUFORC and Davenport is finally catching up on postings.

Activity of course in Cal. and Washington State...... now there has been activity in Liverpool England and Cardiff and an Army Base in Shropshire England so I will keep on England to see if the ships are trying to ""tell us something.""

This Army Base seems to be located somewhat mid-way between Liverpool and Cardiff so let's see if anything/movement comes from that Base.

The ships tend to observe so maybe movement at that Base will tell us where on this Planet something might happen whether Earth movements or Military movements.



[edit on 26-6-2008 by observe50]

Seismically, it's pretty quiet-- in general. Even South America has been fairly quiet the past week or so. Alaska, where it always shakes, hasn't had much of anything over 4.0. And the Pacific is living up to its name as well.

I woke up this morning and my lower back and right hip hurt so much that I could barely walk. This might be from carrying the puppy around, but I seriously doubt that as he only weighs 9 lbs. I think I'm still looking for something +6.0 in Central or South America this week, probably Peru. What do you think Space Cadet?

The News (Fox) was talking DRY lightning in Cal. are they stretching it. I don't think 800 fires would be caused by this do you???? Maybe, maybe not!

Sadly to admit you are all doing the hard work and I am only trying to observe everything I can and throw it into the mix to see if any connections can be made.

The swarm in Mexico, going strong today.

MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km LOCATION
MAP 1.6 2008/06/26 15:24:30 32.998 -115.549 13.1 3 km ( 2 mi) NNW of Brawley, CA
MAP 2.6 2008/06/26 14:39:22 32.312 -115.310 12.0 19 km ( 12 mi) W of Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico
MAP 2.9 2008/06/26 13:23:43 32.197 -115.341 1.8 24 km ( 15 mi) WSW of Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico
MAP 2.9 2008/06/26 12:59:08 32.166 -115.330 10.5 25 km ( 15 mi) SW of Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico
MAP 2.6 2008/06/26 05:26:10 32.219 -115.323 6.0 21 km ( 13 mi) WSW of Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico
MAP 1.7 2008/06/26 04:12:48 32.259 -115.331 6.0 21 km ( 13 mi) W of Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico
MAP 3.7 2008/06/26 04:03:59 32.113 -115.261 6.0 24 km ( 15 mi) SW of Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico
MAP 2.1 2008/06/26 03:36:54 32.187 -115.348 6.0 25 km ( 16 mi) WSW of Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico
MAP 2.8 2008/06/26 02:00:25 32.201 -115.337 6.0 24 km ( 15 mi) WSW of Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico

reply to post by observe50

The News (Fox) was talking DRY lightning in Cal. are they stretching it. I don't think 800 fires would be caused by this do you???? Maybe, maybe not!

Yes, actually, I do believe it, Observe-- we get the dry lightning storms all the time up here in Reno. In fact, that's what we usually get and I've come to dread them because of all the fires they start. It's that time of year out west-- fire season.

While I'm posting, I'll go ahead and mention a couple precursors for the Sierras/Wasatch/New Madrid regions... and the Domino Islands.

reply to post by kattraxx

I see Japan had a +5.0 today. I felt Japan this morning, but didn't think it was over a 4.0.

I'm still getting Japan, so possibly a larger mag than today's coming still.

Another in Japan today, not a larger mag though, but over 4.0 and within 24 hours.

Japan

Magnitude 4.7 - EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
2008 June 26 14:34:05 UTC