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Source | The Odds of Dying | LiveScience
Perceptions of risk factors can change over time simply because more is learned. The chances of an Earth-impacting asteroid killing you have dropped dramatically, for example, from about 1-in-20,000 in 1994 to something like 1-in-200,000 or 1-in-500,000 today.
The new numbers -- their range reflecting the need for further research -- were offered up last week by Clark Chapman of the Southwest Research Institute and David Morrison at NASA's Ames Research Center.
Why such a dramatic downgrade? Active intervention.
"A significant part of it is that we have now discovered, in the last dozen years, a good fraction of the largest, most deadly asteroids and found that they won't hit the Earth," Chapman told LiveScience.
Also, projections of the destruction a large space rock would cause have been revised downward a bit. Finally, since Earth is two-thirds water, asteroid risks include the possibility of an impact-induced tsunami. And Chapman says asteroid-generated tsunamis may not be as deadly as once presumed.
Others contend the odds of death-by-asteroid are still about 1-in-50,000, until the remaining handful of expected large asteroids are found and determined not to be a near-term threat.
Originally posted by NGC2736
Now everyone can at least have a basic idea of what to worry about, and how much too worry.
Originally posted by Mysteryinthesky
Sorry if this has been posted already
Asteroid to give Earth a close shave next week
First Posted 21:47:00 01/23/2008
...It will fly by on Tuesday, being around 534,000 kilometers (334,000 miles) from the Earth at its closest point at 0834 GMT, according to a Near Earth Object (NEO) database compiled by the University of Pisa in Italy.
Get the orbital details, including covariance and correlation:
- Near present day (MJD = 54400): (HTML) (ASCII)
- Near middle of observational arc: (MJD = 54406.8): (HTML) (ASCII)
Originally posted by Pilot
Has anyone had trouble getting on the Goldstone site? Their asteroid schedule is not loading....
Today they were going to observe the great potato whizzing toward us now weren't they?
Originally posted by elusivetruth
anyone know what happens when two magnets get close to each other?
the asteroid is most likely made of metal that has a magnetic field around it. (If it were not metal, then we would see an ice trail, like in a comet) It it is rotating, then it is basically a rotating magnet. It will come in contact with 2 slower rotating magnets (earth and the moon). No object can have a single magnet charge, it is always bipolar, with a positive and a negative charge.
Now if the positive field of TU84 interacts with the positive charge of earth or the moon, then they will react and it will send TU84 spinning off in another direction. This is NASA's hopeful scenario that is posted on the official website, and that is why the distance increases so much after passing by earth.
Now for the worst case scenario, the negative and positive fields of these objects intersect, pulling TU84 into the earths magnetosphere. Then gravity will finish the job. TU84 would be hurled into the earth or moon at unprecedented speeds.
[edit on 23-1-2008 by elusivetruth]
Originally posted by mattguy404
reply to post by tetragrammation
Yes, I was using sarcasm. To the extreme For anyone tuning in, here it is again.
I've been told by a few others that there is a cover up, but yet, here we have the first radar images "hot off the dish".
Originally posted by hildar
I am just taking it this way since this asteroid likes to wobble and to roll over. That they prob. can not figure its exact distance due to this. But since most of us have already proven it will come between the 2 objects earth and the moon. We now can sit back and watch the Asteroid do a cute little dance across in front of the moon. Lets just hope it doesnt do to many ChaChas. Or that it doesnt swing its hips a bit to much to the left or right.