Asteroid 2007 TU24 has NASA concerned.

reply to post by Shar_Chi


From an article on LiveScience:

Perceptions of risk factors can change over time simply because more is learned. The chances of an Earth-impacting asteroid killing you have dropped dramatically, for example, from about 1-in-20,000 in 1994 to something like 1-in-200,000 or 1-in-500,000 today.

The new numbers -- their range reflecting the need for further research -- were offered up last week by Clark Chapman of the Southwest Research Institute and David Morrison at NASA's Ames Research Center.

Why such a dramatic downgrade? Active intervention.

"A significant part of it is that we have now discovered, in the last dozen years, a good fraction of the largest, most deadly asteroids and found that they won't hit the Earth," Chapman told LiveScience.

Also, projections of the destruction a large space rock would cause have been revised downward a bit. Finally, since Earth is two-thirds water, asteroid risks include the possibility of an impact-induced tsunami. And Chapman says asteroid-generated tsunamis may not be as deadly as once presumed.
Others contend the odds of death-by-asteroid are still about 1-in-50,000, until the remaining handful of expected large asteroids are found and determined not to be a near-term threat.

Source | The Odds of Dying | LiveScience

Originally posted by NGC2736
Now everyone can at least have a basic idea of what to worry about, and how much too worry.

I hope everyone worries in the range of 0 percent. 1 percent margin of error.

Nothing is going to come of this event! There is tons of info AGAINST a hit or any possible damage. Why does this go on and on?

reply to post by Shar_Chi


One would think. My apologies for not sourcing this data again.

This table is based mostly on a paper by Clark Chapman and David Morrison and is for residents of the USA

I won't bring this up again though - promise! We have enough nerves going already. Many thanks to everyone on this thread who translated so much of the information for us lay folks. I will go back to reading. Would it be paranoid of me to buy extra water tomorrow? Nite all.

Peace.

Originally posted by Mysteryinthesky
Sorry if this has been posted already

Source



Asteroid to give Earth a close shave next week


Agence France-Presse
First Posted 21:47:00 01/23/2008

...It will fly by on Tuesday, being around 534,000 kilometers (334,000 miles) from the Earth at its closest point at 0834 GMT, according to a Near Earth Object (NEO) database compiled by the University of Pisa in Italy.

Thanks for this article link. On rereading it doenst most of it talk about the Mars Asteroid and other near Earth misses.

Without checking before writing this, I am asking does this MSM article using the same public information/link that I looked at earlier today at Pisa's web (see my post bottom of page 40)? Has Pisa's (Emoid) yet jelled with Nasa's? I admit that my math is probably off, and the differences seem minor - but you've got to forgive my lack of immediate reverance for the fourth estate if they are basically posting data that was last collected on Jan 1. We are six days away and they 'may' be reporting old news, I'll check and if wrong offer a general apology.


Nasa was supposed to start peeking at this thing again today and I suppose that is where these new radar images may have come from. Again has their orbital track data changed at all? Or come into agreement with Harvard or the other public sites listed long ago in this thread?

Night!

Has anyone had trouble getting on the Goldstone site? Their asteroid schedule is not loading....

Today they were going to observe the great potato whizzing toward us now weren't they?

It looks like Pisa's data is still holding EMOID at (.00099)au. On the face of it this number still does not match the EMOID that is offered at the bottom of the JPL site (.00125)au.

Again I do not think this is a big deal, nor do I know if TU24 will cause any problems, the experts obviously know more than I, but I dont have to accept tomorrow's newspaper telling me this is a non story, when they may not corroborate data from across the 'expert' spectrum.

According to Pisa there have been 'visual observations' of the rock after Jan 1:
(jan 1) Schiaparelli Observatory
(jan 13) Desert moon
(jan 13)Boambee #432
(jan 17)Sendling #117
(jan 18)Desert moon Observatory #448

So this is my apology of sorts - for claiming the article used old information.

However the following is clipped from the Pisa site and account for my distrust regarding the emoid discrepancy/my missunderstanding.

Get the orbital details, including covariance and correlation:

- Near present day (MJD = 54400): (HTML) (ASCII)
- Near middle of observational arc: (MJD = 54406.8): (HTML) (ASCII)

newton.dm.unipi.it...
(goto search and enter 2007tu24)

Their 'near present day' figure for Emoid is the .00099au number
The middle of observational arc link shows Emoid at 0.00169(au)

This latter number being closer to the listed Nasa/JPL (.00125). Does 'middle of observational arc' mean an earlier and more unrefined data set? I dont speak Astronomeeze?Maybe things will flush out today with more data, but until then I am not believing reports right/left.

-scrap






[edit on 24-1-2008 by scrapple]

[edit on 24-1-2008 by scrapple]

Originally posted by Pilot
Has anyone had trouble getting on the Goldstone site? Their asteroid schedule is not loading....

Today they were going to observe the great potato whizzing toward us now weren't they?

And where did mattguy404's earlier link to the TU24 radar photo go? I wanted to check that baby out. Its understandable if folks are jambing up that JPL website now if those are hot off radar.

I thought that might be the thing, a server overwhelmed by the usual space geeks plus 30,000 conspiracy geeks all at once.

However, my friend says nobody is posting over at TU24.org at all tonight, which is weird too.

reply to post by Pilot


The guy there has closed tu24.org's boards

Oh, and the radar imaging at the bottom of this page - echo.jpl.nasa.gov...

But as Pilot mentioned, it's been nerd-nuked.

[edit on 24-1-2008 by mattguy404]

reply to post by NGC2736


quote]Originally posted by NGC2736
I think some of you are overlooking a significant fact about all of this. If, repeat, IF this thing hits the Earth, by some odd chance, it will do only limited damage.


I live down here in Aus and i am buggin out.........Limited damage doesnt do it for me or my young boys......... typical reaction... if it aint gonna hurt me then *#$@* the rest
\
I hope it doesnt hit the north... I hope you up there think the same.

Doesn't look like much, but it does show that NASA are not really trying too hard to cover it up. The original is here - echo.jpl.nasa.gov... but it's obviously overworked.

This link should work for the radar image

[edit on 24-1-2008 by mattguy404]

Originally posted by elusivetruth
anyone know what happens when two magnets get close to each other?

the asteroid is most likely made of metal that has a magnetic field around it. (If it were not metal, then we would see an ice trail, like in a comet) It it is rotating, then it is basically a rotating magnet. It will come in contact with 2 slower rotating magnets (earth and the moon). No object can have a single magnet charge, it is always bipolar, with a positive and a negative charge.

Now if the positive field of TU84 interacts with the positive charge of earth or the moon, then they will react and it will send TU84 spinning off in another direction. This is NASA's hopeful scenario that is posted on the official website, and that is why the distance increases so much after passing by earth.

Now for the worst case scenario, the negative and positive fields of these objects intersect, pulling TU84 into the earths magnetosphere. Then gravity will finish the job. TU84 would be hurled into the earth or moon at unprecedented speeds.
[edit on 23-1-2008 by elusivetruth]

I assume you mean TU24...

Anyway, your statement that the asteroid under discussion "is most likely made of metal" is incorrect. At this point its composition is unknown. That is one of the things they hope to learn from observing it. It is also incorrect to state that "if it were not metal we would see an ice trail, like in a comet". If it is made of rock (and many are) then there is no ice trail as there is no water present to make the ice.

Asteroids and comets are completely different objects! Comets are often characterized by scientists as "dirty snowballs", which while being a very over-simplistic term at least gives people some idea. Asteroids are just rocks, and what their composition is varies from one to another. They ain't comets and they don't have tails when they are travelling through (near-vacuum) space. They are just ROCKS, okay??

Further, even if it were made of nickel/iron, there is no way we can assume that it is a giant magnet. If it is a magnet, then obviously it has bipolarity but if as you also say it's rotating, then sometimes (by your scenario) it would have its north "closest" to earth's north and other times it would be the opposite way. So how would it miraculously react according to your scenario?

The fact of the matter is that the magnetic effects between two such bodies will have no perceivable effect with an object like this that is out in space. But even here on the earth, if we were to build a magnet 500 metres long it will not go leaping off to the north pole or out into space or whatever. The suggestion is ludicrous!

Please try to confine your suppositions or scenarios to something approximating at least high school levels of science. Your statements are amusing to read but also annoying as they can frighten people who do not understand this at all and don't know that what you are stating is not even bad-quality science fiction.

reply to post by mungodave

Mungodave,

I appreciate your concerns but I hope it's okay to give you my perspective... It's my daughter's birthday on Jan 29 and she lives in Tassie. Near the coast. I have had to debate whether to inform my daughter about TU24 and I've decided not to. I simply don't think there is anything of concern to inform her about, so why mess up my only daughter's birthday just because a few people have got it into their heads that this lump of rock will hit our planet? Believe me, I thought long and hard about this. You're a parent and you know how we worry about our kids. Even though she's an adult it still applies.

If I were down in Tassie I'd just go out with her for the day and have a good time. The chances of this thing having any effect on OZ or anywhere else on this planet are so incredibly remote that I no longer worry about it and I certainly won't bother my daughter with it. I'll just stick to worrying about her driving and the usual stuff. If in the meantime the media picks up on this story in OZ and my daughter asks me my opinion then I'll give it and leave it at that.

Will say this, though: that's just my perspective. If your instincts say different then go with that by all means and you have my respect. No worries on that score: one reason she moved to little ol' Tassie from the big (mainland) city where she lived was to find a quieter place that was less likely to be a serious target in the event of -- ummm -- major conflict. That's her instincts at work and I respect her for that as well.

Edited for some darned typos.

[edit on 24-1-2008 by JustMike]

Originally posted by mattguy404
reply to post by tetragrammation

 

Yes, I was using sarcasm. To the extreme

For anyone tuning in, here it is again.

I've been told by a few others that there is a cover up, but yet, here we have the first radar images "hot off the dish".

Is it just me or is that link not working? Also I noticed that none of the photos that people have put in are working either. Strange very strange.

Hilda

It's flooded, I used my geocities account and that also got flooded and took my avatar with it (!) so, now, try this link...
TU24 radar imaging

You know what's weird?

I just had a dream last night. Uh, it was freaky. The moon, that moon, was approaching closer and closer to earth, as an asteroid (or that which turned out to be asteroid) and it hit the earth's atmosphere, making a big, large, a circle in the sky (the circle became red, assuming it was hot and in flame) as I witnessed it up there and then moon hitting earth then ground, then I'm dead?

I didn't think I'd have dream like that, but then again, to my guess, perhaps something like this will happen in future. (or very far in future, hopefully)

[edit on 24-1-2008 by TheoOne]

I am just taking it this way since this asteroid likes to wobble and to roll over. That they prob. can not figure its exact distance due to this. But since most of us have already proven it will come between the 2 objects earth and the moon. We now can sit back and watch the Asteroid do a cute little dance across in front of the moon. Lets just hope it doesnt do to many ChaChas. Or that it doesnt swing its hips a bit to much to the left or right.

Hilda

reply to post by JustMike


Personally, I am just going to pretty much not do very much. I figure we will sit together and have a great meal that day just in case. But other then that we wont be doing much. Unless if I get a gut feeling something is wrong the day before.

Hilda

reply to post by hildar

I agree with you...a calm approach drawing on inner peace makes sense. And I will say this in respect of my post about my daughter: if I get a gut feeling that something bad is coming up then I'll be on the phone to her pdq. This is not a pride thing after all. It's just common sense. I believe that we ought to listen to our instincts and in the past that has been helpful to me on more than a few occasions, which is why I won't put down anyone who feels the need to follow their own gut instinct and take some protective action. Far from it. I respect them for it. I'm not just talking asteroids, I mean any time.

I'll also be watching nature to see what the animals and birds are doing. They are often a good guide and in the case of storms and other strong, high-energy natural events I'll pay more notice to how they behave than a bunch of scientists any day.

Originally posted by hildar
I am just taking it this way since this asteroid likes to wobble and to roll over. That they prob. can not figure its exact distance due to this. But since most of us have already proven it will come between the 2 objects earth and the moon. We now can sit back and watch the Asteroid do a cute little dance across in front of the moon. Lets just hope it doesnt do to many ChaChas. Or that it doesnt swing its hips a bit to much to the left or right.

Hilda

It looks like it's doing the Rumba, actually...

But seriously, though, the fact that it's irregularly shaped and tumbling is really quite helpful. It doesn't negatively affect the ability to measure its distance -- quite the opposite -- but it gives us a better chance to study exactly what size, shape and volume it is -- and its possible composition. Because it's presenting different-shaped parts of its surface to our viewing perspective, and because the variations in its shape and contours have varying rates of albedo (reflection) it's much easier to pick up the rate of tumble and identify its main axis (or axes if the tumble is complex). This varying reflection rate will also make it easier for amateur astronomers to find it with smaller telescopes. They can look for the variation in light reflected and (by the time it's closest) knowing its spin/tumble rates per minute, pick out this rather small object in a very big night sky.

Look at it like this: if I throw an (American) football towards you, you will be quite easily able to estimate its distance and angle of approach. If it's tumbling it will actually give you more reference points and make it easier for you. On the other hand, a baseball, being almost perfectly spherical, is much harder to observe accurately for spin when it's coming at you at around 100 mph, so if it's a curve ball you might not pick up on the amount of spin and miss the darned thing. That's why batters seem to focus on the ball's seam, so they can pick up on the spin and try and swing where they think it ought to go. (That's what I've been told anyway. Sure applied when I played cricket, which uses a ball very like a baseball in size and with a seam.)

However, if an object moving through space was almost perfectly spherical and/or jet black, and especially if it had no spin, it would be very difficult to pick up initially as there would be virtually no unevenness in the light or other em signals reflected from it. Such an object would be a good candidate for going undetected even if it were pretty large. It would more likely be noticed by what it obscures. Fortunately for us TU24 is tumbling, is not perfectly round and not jet black, so it's not so hard to track.

Sorry for the lonnng post... I hope this helps to clarify the matter a little bit.

Mike