Corona Virus Updates Part 2

originally posted by: tarifa37
a reply to: Power_Semi

let's be honest it will be the figures of infected and dead that are coming from countries outside China which will be the correct ones and the ones to worry about for most of us. it will be a long time if ever that we find out the correct figures for inside China.

I agree, and I doubt anyone will ever really know what happened in China.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

bnonews.com...


There are currently 28,266 confirmed cases worldwide, including 565 fatalities.

originally posted by: Halfswede

originally posted by: Necrose
BLACK = EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
RED = LINEAR GROWTH
GREEN -- = WHAT WOULD HAVE BEEN AN EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

This is my last post regarding the subject of the exponential growth. It's barely linear. A linear growth would mean we get at least a higher number than yesterday. The number of new cases today is going to be lower than the number of new cases yesterday.

Doh. This is using the data on your plot and fitting it with the exponential curve parameters specified in the tool (circled) using MATLAB. Just keep digging. You simply don't even know what exponential growth means outside of some preconceived notion in your head. FYI, that R-value means it is a good fit btw.

Necrose knows exactly what he/she/they are doing and you’re falling for it. Same with Muzzleflash. Ignore them. Pointless unless you give them time.

originally posted by: Power_Semi
Doubling time:

From the 21st Jan using official numbers of confirmed cases (21st jan being confirmed total from 20th etc), not accounting for deaths.

21st Jan - less than 2 days
22nd Jan - c.1.5 days
23rd jan - c.1.5 days
24th jan - c.1.5 days
25th jan - c.1.5 days
26th jan - c. 1.5 days
27th jan - c. 1.5 days
28th jan - c.2.5 days
29th jan - c. 3 days
30th jan - c. 3 days
31st jan - c. 4 days
1st feb - c. 4 days

Now you need to be careful how you interpret that.

1) It's slowing down, but that's a heck of a jump from 1.5 to 2.5 in 1 day.
2) You need to consider they might have reached the limited of how many they can test per day - which they have admitted has happened.
3) You have to trust the official numbers.
4) It doesn't count people at home and not officially in the system.

EDIT - today will probably be the double of the 2nd so will be 4 days again.

Oh there you lowkey mentioned it's "SLOWING DOWN" ... ain't that what Necrose been tellin' ya ?

a reply to: Agit8dChop

Leaving all conspiracies aside, what is clear is they are treating this in an unprecedented manner.

Watch what they do. Not what they say.

I think we are headed towards one of the most meaningful calamities of our lifetime. Wish I was wrong, but I doubt it.

a reply to: gps777

28 266 confirmed / 565 fatalities

BNO News

R is down because. We add less cases. If we continue, we will add less and less case untile r is below 1.

I don't really subscribe to that.

the % gets less because the total its a % of gets more every day.

We're still hitting 3000 cases per day - which is the maximum of their testing and they are only testing those who managed to get admitted to hospital.

China's lost control of the situation, so the numbers being 'consistent' doesn't add up

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose
a reply to: Halfswede


What kind of growth would this be then? If what we have now is exponential?

Go and look up what exponential means before you embarras yourself further.

That is friendly advice.

Doesn't sound at all friendly - rather patronising and hostile.

p.s. "embarrass" is spelled with double r and double s (for future reference, you'll probably need it)

Here is another video of trucks spraying disinfectant in Wuhan.

This seems pretty serious.



While everyone is bickering over linear rates and bs graphs there are updates and new info going on.

I am surprised I haven't seen this yet.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

It could bring China to its knee's..

I considered this yesterday....it's a real possibility and the implications globally are truly surreal.

originally posted by: TheAMEDDDoc
a reply to: loam

Speaking of things that can cause seizures, other neurological symptoms, and respiratory problems, do we know what the heck they are spraying? Is it toxic? Viruses are so hard to target with drugs because those drugs would be toxic to the host as well, like cancer treatments.

I don’t think those masks would offer great protection from chemical hazards.

Thats what Im wondering.. what in the world could they be spraying that would do any good VS bad?? Holy cow..

I mean when I was a kid they sprayed like that in Louisiana for mosquitoes, but not directly ON people.

a reply to: loam

I agree, their actions don't match the statements being put out.
Infection rates outside of Asia don't line up with whats happening in China.

I really hope there's a quick breakthrough, because China (as bad as they are on human rights) do play a important part on the world stage in terms of stability, economic prosperity and global connectivity.

originally posted by: Necrose

TODAY'S INCREASE IS 7% LOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S INCREASE DUMMY.

Good news. And there was more contagious people to transmit it... still it’s slowing down...

edit on 5-2-2020 by Maker22 because: (no reason given)

originally posted by: Maker22

originally posted by: Necrose

TODAY'S INCREASE IS 7% LOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S INCREASE DUMMY.

Good news. And there was more contagious people to transmit it... still it’s slowing down...

You edited your post in a way it quotes me saying that.

I forgot to post this.. came available about 45 min ago. Good plain language information.

www.bioworld.com...

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi
Doubling time:

From the 21st Jan using official numbers of confirmed cases (21st jan being confirmed total from 20th etc), not accounting for deaths.

21st Jan - less than 2 days
22nd Jan - c.1.5 days
23rd jan - c.1.5 days
24th jan - c.1.5 days
25th jan - c.1.5 days
26th jan - c. 1.5 days
27th jan - c. 1.5 days
28th jan - c.2.5 days
29th jan - c. 3 days
30th jan - c. 3 days
31st jan - c. 4 days
1st feb - c. 4 days

Now you need to be careful how you interpret that.

1) It's slowing down, but that's a heck of a jump from 1.5 to 2.5 in 1 day.
2) You need to consider they might have reached the limited of how many they can test per day - which they have admitted has happened.
3) You have to trust the official numbers.
4) It doesn't count people at home and not officially in the system.

EDIT - today will probably be the double of the 2nd so will be 4 days again.

Oh there you lowkey mentioned it's "SLOWING DOWN" ... ain't that what Necrose been tellin' ya ?

No idiot, I said you have to be careful how you interpret it, that could be one interpretation but it would be the incorrect one.

With all respect it's a fairly academic discussion at the moment as the figures coming from CCP are likely heavily doctored (pun intended), Is it really worth calling a fellow ATS member an "idiot" over? Necrose makes a reasonable point that any lay-person would identify with. Bigger picture we haven't quite seen the explosion (in official numbers) many expected; Necrose is simply trying to contextualise the situation.

They were doing some spraying near the beginning of this, and someone from Asia said this is not atypical - they often would spray like this for mosquitoes and things. Now.. the above video has a whole bunch of trucks.. so I wonder if -that- is normal.

Lets hope that after today we settle on the maths classes a little and get actual facts from source (as if). Yes the numbers are tricky, I’ve never been blessed with a genius maths gene but is the following correct; can 0% mean %100 at the same time?

If yesterday’s total = let’s say 2,000, and the increase today was 2,000, it means there was a 0% increase in the figure for yesterday. Yet this = 100% increase overall as now there are 4,000 cases. Is that right or do I need to just walk right on in to school when I take my kids in tomorrow? Be gentle.

a reply to: liejunkie01

Very similar was done in Miami to combat Zika virus.

www.youtube.com...