Corona Virus Updates Part 2

Latest update from Chris Martenson (PhD in Pathology & expert), all I can say is WOW! The MSM is attacking him and Wikipedia edited/removed his his bio. The “critics” lied and claimed he is profiting off his reports because he “has 12,000 more ‘paid subscribers’ on YouTube recently. YouTube doesn’t even have paid subscribers for individual channels (or if they do it’s not what they’re claiming in order to defame his character).

ASIDE from the political BS from the MSM and PTB to slander him he’s reporting lots of great facts including an antiviral treatment that is starting to show some promise.

youtu.be...

Muzzle flash if you see this I’d ask you to give the first few minutes of this video a listen... give it a chance (maybe you’ll want to watch The whole thing). Please try to discredit what is being said about the severity of this outbreak

originally posted by: slatesteam
a reply to: CrazeeWorld777

Bruise ship... pardon my gallows humor.

]]

typing in the dark!

a reply to: Advantage

Did we ever hear a reason why the doctor who lead the Japanese quarantine operation killed himself? Obviously I’m not expecting anything and my heart goes out to his family, but come on.

a reply to: jedi_hamster

...”silly game” or “training scenario”

Toh-may-toe, Tuh-mah-to?

In the first thread someone shrewdly speculated that game was just collecting data to allow for best practices in term of global spread... I refuse to play it

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: myselfaswell
a reply to: TheAMEDDDoc

I posted the following yesterday;

Mr. Xi warned officials not to resist orders or to let “bureaucratism” slow government efforts to bring the outbreak under control. “Those who disobey the unified command or shirk off responsibilities will be punished,” Mr. Xi said, the Xinhua news agency reported.

I think what the underlying message here is, is that China is now very draconian, and I mean full medieval, with it's approach in how it deals with it's citizens, in an attempt to get on top of the virus.

that virus is going full medieval on them, so can you really blame them?

silly example, but in the game posted several times in relation to this news, Plague Inc., i had a scenario where USA managed to close it's borders before the virus hit them, preventing the spread there. when the rest of the world was dying and there was still no cure, they somehow got a few cases, in the south i guess? from Mexico? i don't remember. thing is, they've rounded them up and killed them all to prevent the spread of the virus.

now, that's just a silly game, but do you think such scenario isn't possible? the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

What I don't understand, and never will, is how this sneaky little virus avoided Heathrow, Paris-CDG and Frankfurt - infecting dozens. But mainly, Heathrow... man, I don't know the exact numbers but how many people travel through LHR per day? 200k? It's crazy innit... there is something fishy about this Wuhan thing and I don't know what it is. I'm closely watching the markets... something's up. We just haven't been given the permission to know, yet.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose
a reply to: Halfswede

What kind of growth would this be then? If what we have now is exponential?

Go and look up what exponential means before you embarras yourself further.

That is friendly advice.

No, I'm seriously asking, trying to learn more.

If something grows by a fixed percentage per time period it is exponential.

1% growth per day is exponential.
2% growth per day is exponential.
1000% per day is exponential.
100% per year is exponential.

In nature/the real world things do not grow at a fixed rate per day, they fluctuate, so the overall increase can be exponential even though the percent per time period is varying.

That's why you work out an average.

Then you can create a rough model.

I see, but what if we get a lower % every day.... like 29,26, 22, 20, 19,... is it still exponential?

I get that 20% every day would be exponential since the total sum increases every day, and thus 20% of that number is MORE every day. But if the % decreases then idk how it could be exponential.

don't look at the percentages alone.

when the amount of new cases is constant day after day, the growth is linear.
when the percentage is constant, the growth is exponential.
when the percentage is higher, the growth is faster than exponential.

when the percentage goes down, but the number of new cases is still higher than in the previous day, it's between linear and exponential - it's not following exponential curve, but it's still growing, faster than linearly.
when the amount of new cases is lower than in the previous day, the growth is less than linear.

that being said, there are fluctuations. you could try to average the official numbers to smooth out the curve before trying to determine the growth rate, but there's more than one way to do it. personally i would probably use bell curve over a few days window, but then you gotta be careful to normalize the data properly or you'll end up with crap results. it's entirely separate topic.

Hi, thanks for your reply, well explained.

"when the amount of new cases is lower than in the previous day, the growth is less than linear."

^^This, sir, is all I and our fellow members here needed to hear, and basically what I have been screaming all along.
Thanks!

Not only has the exponential growth stopped, it's decaying so fast it's not even linear as the number of cases added today is LOWER than the number of cases added yesterday. I understand fluctuations and all that, we'll see the next day, if tomorrow's number's are lower than today's numbers, then the growth is in decay.

IF tomorrow's numbers are lower.

nice attempt at distorting what i've said just to confirm your biased views to "prove" you're "right", but kindly take off your f..king blinders. it's getting tiresome, as you're clearly immune to logic.

or did you not notice the part about FLUCTUATIONS? of course you did. you're just pretending to search for the truth, just to get back to trolling few moments later.

how's your ego? can you both fit together in a single armchair?

f..king disgusting.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

bnonews.com...

There are currently 28,276 confirmed cases worldwide, including 565 fatalities.

Three more locally transmitted coronavirus cases in Singapore, including 6-month-old baby

www.straitstimes.com...



Loved this prayer from Salt & Light out of Singapore

Let us also continue to pray that the spread of this coronavirus will be curbed. In particular, let us pray
• that God will bless the efforts of the researchers seeking to discover diagnostic tools, vaccines and treatments
• that God will grant wisdom and insight to governments and organisations managing the current outbreak
• that God will pour his healing grace upon all who have been taken ill
• that God will comfort the relatives and friends of those who have died, and
• that God will grant us the physical, mental and emotional strength to cope with the challenges posed by this disease.

saltandlight.sg...

originally posted by: firesnake
a reply to: Advantage

Did we ever hear a reason why the doctor who lead the Japanese quarantine operation killed himself? Obviously I’m not expecting anything and my heart goes out to his family, but come on.

Ive not heard anything. Maybe assisted suicide.

originally posted by: EndtheMadnessNow
a reply to: Advantage

Lysol. What I was pointing to is it's not unusual for spraying to clean or kill whatever. No idea what is being sprayed in China but whatever it is probably has some side effect.

I understand what you’re saying , but I just don’t think they are completely the same . one you are spraying for the carriers of a virus, like a bug or larvae . The other they are spraying for a virus. One you can see with your eyes, the other is measured in nanometers.

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose
a reply to: Halfswede

What kind of growth would this be then? If what we have now is exponential?

Go and look up what exponential means before you embarras yourself further.

That is friendly advice.

No, I'm seriously asking, trying to learn more.

If something grows by a fixed percentage per time period it is exponential.

1% growth per day is exponential.
2% growth per day is exponential.
1000% per day is exponential.
100% per year is exponential.

In nature/the real world things do not grow at a fixed rate per day, they fluctuate, so the overall increase can be exponential even though the percent per time period is varying.

That's why you work out an average.

Then you can create a rough model.

I see, but what if we get a lower % every day.... like 29,26, 22, 20, 19,... is it still exponential?

I get that 20% every day would be exponential since the total sum increases every day, and thus 20% of that number is MORE every day. But if the % decreases then idk how it could be exponential.

don't look at the percentages alone.

when the amount of new cases is constant day after day, the growth is linear.
when the percentage is constant, the growth is exponential.
when the percentage is higher, the growth is faster than exponential.

when the percentage goes down, but the number of new cases is still higher than in the previous day, it's between linear and exponential - it's not following exponential curve, but it's still growing, faster than linearly.
when the amount of new cases is lower than in the previous day, the growth is less than linear.

that being said, there are fluctuations. you could try to average the official numbers to smooth out the curve before trying to determine the growth rate, but there's more than one way to do it. personally i would probably use bell curve over a few days window, but then you gotta be careful to normalize the data properly or you'll end up with crap results. it's entirely separate topic.

Hi, thanks for your reply, well explained.

"when the amount of new cases is lower than in the previous day, the growth is less than linear."

^^This, sir, is all I and our fellow members here needed to hear, and basically what I have been screaming all along.
Thanks!

Not only has the exponential growth stopped, it's decaying so fast it's not even linear as the number of cases added today is LOWER than the number of cases added yesterday. I understand fluctuations and all that, we'll see the next day, if tomorrow's number's are lower than today's numbers, then the growth is in decay.

IF tomorrow's numbers are lower.

nice attempt at distorting what i've said just to confirm your biased views to "prove" you're "right", but kindly take off your f..king blinders. it's getting tiresome, as you're clearly immune to logic.

or did you not notice the part about FLUCTUATIONS? of course you did. you're just pretending to search for the truth, just to get back to trolling few moments later.

how's your ego? can you both fit together in a single armchair?

f..king disgusting.

No worries, I clarified I understand we need more datapoints/more days to conclude the trend is in decay. So we'll just wait and see... no trolling, nobody is calling anyone names, just waiting for the damn numbers.

originally posted by: Advantage


Did we ever hear a reason why the doctor who lead the Japanese quarantine operation killed himself? Obviously I’m not expecting anything and my heart goes out to his family, but come on.

source please, couldn't find anything online in English

Maybe this is the stuff they are spraying, I can't find anything concrete, I'm really curious:

Disinfectant against Coronavirus / China 2019-nCoV

SAFETY DATA SHEET

Not as bad as chlorine dioxide, wish I knew what they were actually spraying. Still not the best stuff to inhale.

They also have a stronger version:

Sanosil S015 (Aerosol)

originally posted by: Necrose
Not only has the exponential growth stopped, it's decaying so fast it's not even linear as the number of cases added today is LOWER than the number of cases added yesterday. I understand fluctuations and all that

oh, do you now...

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose
a reply to: Halfswede

What kind of growth would this be then? If what we have now is exponential?

Go and look up what exponential means before you embarras yourself further.

That is friendly advice.

No, I'm seriously asking, trying to learn more.

If something grows by a fixed percentage per time period it is exponential.

1% growth per day is exponential.
2% growth per day is exponential.
1000% per day is exponential.
100% per year is exponential.

In nature/the real world things do not grow at a fixed rate per day, they fluctuate, so the overall increase can be exponential even though the percent per time period is varying.

That's why you work out an average.

Then you can create a rough model.

I see, but what if we get a lower % every day.... like 29,26, 22, 20, 19,... is it still exponential?

I get that 20% every day would be exponential since the total sum increases every day, and thus 20% of that number is MORE every day. But if the % decreases then idk how it could be exponential.

don't look at the percentages alone.

when the amount of new cases is constant day after day, the growth is linear.
when the percentage is constant, the growth is exponential.
when the percentage is higher, the growth is faster than exponential.

when the percentage goes down, but the number of new cases is still higher than in the previous day, it's between linear and exponential - it's not following exponential curve, but it's still growing, faster than linearly.
when the amount of new cases is lower than in the previous day, the growth is less than linear.

that being said, there are fluctuations. you could try to average the official numbers to smooth out the curve before trying to determine the growth rate, but there's more than one way to do it. personally i would probably use bell curve over a few days window, but then you gotta be careful to normalize the data properly or you'll end up with crap results. it's entirely separate topic.

Hi, thanks for your reply, well explained.

"when the amount of new cases is lower than in the previous day, the growth is less than linear."

^^This, sir, is all I and our fellow members here needed to hear, and basically what I have been screaming all along.
Thanks!

Not only has the exponential growth stopped, it's decaying so fast it's not even linear as the number of cases added today is LOWER than the number of cases added yesterday. I understand fluctuations and all that, we'll see the next day, if tomorrow's number's are lower than today's numbers, then the growth is in decay.

IF tomorrow's numbers are lower.

nice attempt at distorting what i've said just to confirm your biased views to "prove" you're "right", but kindly take off your f..king blinders. it's getting tiresome, as you're clearly immune to logic.

or did you not notice the part about FLUCTUATIONS? of course you did. you're just pretending to search for the truth, just to get back to trolling few moments later.

how's your ego? can you both fit together in a single armchair?

f..king disgusting.

No worries, I clarified I understand we need more datapoints/more days to conclude the trend is in decay. So we'll just wait and see... no trolling, nobody is calling anyone names, just waiting for the damn numbers.

point is, you're just jumping to conclusions based on a single data point. that's NOT how it works.

when you'll see a decline over a week, then we can take it seriously. otherwise, it's nothing but a fluctuation.

and with your attitude of screaming left and right that you're right and you won and it's going down yadda yadda, what reaction did you expect? you're not being reasonable. the fact that today, assuming those numbers are even correct, the growth is less than linear, means exactly nothing. it did happen before, and look how it went up since then. it's the average that matters.

originally posted by: lostsock
www.wjhl.com...
Two of the passengers on The Diamond Princess, part of the Princess Cruise Line fleet who’ve been told to stay in their rooms for the next two weeks are from my neighboring town are on board. News Channel 11 made contact with Dr. Arnold and Jeanie Hopland Wednesday afternoon by phone. Im sure Dr. Hopland is going to be very busy these next 2 weeks as I doubt he will stay in his room if they need more Dr.'s on board.

How does keeping infected guests in their rooms help if they Rent taking major precautions with ventilation, air filtration, etc? I bet it’s circulating through the vents stilll (or already has)

a reply to: Necrose

That was from me, I’ll try and find it.

originally posted by: TheAMEDDDoc
Maybe this is the stuff they are spraying, I can't find anything concrete, I'm really curious:

Disinfectant against Coronavirus / China 2019-nCoV

SAFETY DATA SHEET

Not as bad as chlorine dioxide, wish I knew what they were actually spraying. Still not the best stuff to inhale.

They also have a stronger version:

Sanosil S015 (Aerosol)

And spraying it all willy nilly outdoors does what? Not much Id bet. Particularly since supposedly it lives under 5 min on surfaces.. its not spread by a vector ( mosquito,flea,skyfish) and running behind a cart with a fogger doesnt allow it to settle anywhere.

a reply to: Necrose

What i don’t understand is all this infighting here.
ATS should be about discussion of CTs. This particular thread and it’s protege were for updates on a possible pandemic. I don’t care for “linear, exponential, maths”, or the name-calling and insults really. I think we all agree we are ALL trying to assess this in Real Time.

Having that said let me point out 2 (that’s two with an “ooh”) things.

A. China isn’t up to par nor snuff with their #s because they have limited testing capabilities. It almost seems we agree that those starving in their homes are not counted, nor are the toe tags claiming “pneumonia”....
(This ALSO discounts that in some cases it takes 3-4 tests to confirm)

B. There is CLEARLY an effective stifling of info both from China and Western MSM. Like drip goes the faucet shutoff

So we can banter and bandy about “Ks” all day, but real people are dying and our governments are doing a great job of keeping a lid on this.

Do carry on with graphs, lines, and personal attacks....

I will hope that God blesses my sense of humor in the face of this disturbing and distressing situation.

All jokes aside, I’m feelin for the Chinese people.
This is awful and tragic.

originally posted by: FamCore
Latest update from Chris Martenson (PhD in Pathology & expert), all I can say is WOW! The MSM is attacking him and Wikipedia edited/removed his his bio. The “critics” lied and claimed he is profiting off his reports because he “has 12,000 more ‘paid subscribers’ on YouTube recently. YouTube doesn’t even have paid subscribers for individual channels (or if they do it’s not what they’re claiming in order to defame his character).

ASIDE from the political BS from the MSM and PTB to slander him he’s reporting lots of great facts including an antiviral treatment that is starting to show some promise.

youtu.be...

Muzzle flash if you see this I’d ask you to give the first few minutes of this video a listen... give it a chance (maybe you’ll want to watch The whole thing). Please try to discredit what is being said about the severity of this outbreak

NOT trynig to be political here. I take Wikipedia is a joke since feminist said a few years ago that Wikipedia is biased and not correct because most of the contributors are men and according to them Wikipedia was denying women to contribute (yea right, anyone can create an account, even contribute anonymously), and the founder agreed.... Since then I stopped editing and fixing stuff there. Can't take it serious if facts are incorrect just because most of the contributors are men, same thing goes if they said the reverse statement. (The original post was modified after a lot contributors complained about what they were saying, it was on an International Women's day from a few years ago). Wikipedia has become a "SJW-pedia".

Anyways, only his data in the English wikipedia was taken down, in the Spanish one it is still there, seems they forgot about that: es.wikipedia.org...

a reply to: Advantage

Are skyfish tasty?