Brexit, Today is the Vote!

Satire:

**How ironic that this message of confidence in a post-Brexit future is being voiced

not by our squabbling and largely Remain-supporting political class but by overseas

investors such as Norway’s fund talking with their wallets.**

If Brexit is such a disaster, how come Europe's firms have DOUBLED their stake in the UK?

The political paralysis in Westminster, the calamitous state of the motor industry, and the mortal damage to immediate business confidence caused by Brexit uncertainty.

Yet while there clearly are difficulties, the nation is selling itself short if it believes that this is the only story.
One doesn’t have to be a Brexiteer to recognise that if one looks beyond Brexit, there is much about Britain to inspire confidence in the future. Not least the fact that it is still the most favoured nation among the 28 states of the European Union for direct investment from overseas.

What makes this even more remarkable is that many of those keeping faith in Britain are state-directed sovereign wealth funds, run, owned and managed by foreign countries.
The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway — worth around £740bn as a result of the country’s oil and gas revenues — recently announced it would continue to invest, and even increase investment, in Britain over the next three decades. If ever there was a morale boost in these uncertain times, this is it.

In addition, even as Brussels negotiators are playing hardball with the May government and warning of the calamity of no deal, it’s clear that European investors do not believe Brexit will have a wholly negative impact on Britain. New data this week shows that in the past 12 months, EU businesses ploughed a staggering £23.9bn into the UK in the shape of property deals, corporate acquisitions and buying stakes in UK firms.

The data, collected by an offshoot of the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s, shows there were 553 separate purchases of assets and that investment was up from £16.3bn on the previous 12 months and £10.5bn in the same period of 2016-17. Overall, European businesses have more than doubled the sums they have invested in Britain in the last three years — which is hardly a vote of no confidence.

Britain has been a destination of choice for Norway’s wealth fund ever since its inception and the country holds stakes worth an astonishing £62bn — around 8 per cent of its total investments — in some of Britain’s biggest enterprises. These include HSBC, which is the nation’s most profitable and global bank, the largest oil company, BP, and UK government debt.

There is no greater compliment any foreign state can pay than to invest in the bonds, known in the UK as gilt edged stock, issued by another country.

Far from being deterred by the turbulence caused by Brexit, funds like Norway’s believe it presents an opportunity because it has had an impact on asset prices in the UK.

The continued success of the City makes its skyscrapers a source of constant attraction for overseas investors, from the Gulf states to greater China. Indeed, Britain is now the number one favoured location for investment by Beijing, which has put money into projects ranging from Hinkley Point, the new nuclear plant in Somerset, to Heathrow Airport.

Brexit or not, Britain remains a major target for corporate and sovereign investors. Those in charge of investment funds have revealed that a bigger worry than Brexit is the possibility of a government led by Jeremy Corbyn and his anointed Chancellor John McDonnell rushing to take valuable privately held assets, such as the water companies, back into public ownership.
Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that in 2017 the value of direct foreign investment in the UK rose by £149bn. Our vibrant financial services sector, a pioneer in developing financial technology, pulled in an astonishing £385bn, up 19.5 per cent from 2016 — the year of the referendum.

Among the sovereign wealth funds, along with Norway and China, those most attracted to the UK are the Gulf states of Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
There is an obsession among many UK and American investors about judging investments in shares and other assets by what is likely to happen over the next three months, let alone the next three or even 30 years.

How reassuring it is to know Britain has friends out there confident enough to ignore those who wail about impending disaster because of Brexit — and instead see a land of opportunity.

www.dailymail.co.uk...


Nice to see there are countries out there that have more faith in *Brexit* than the

largely Remain supporting political class's and the doubting Thomas Remainers.

originally posted by: eletheia

**How ironic that this message of confidence in a post-Brexit future is being voiced

not by our squabbling and largely Remain-supporting political class but by overseas

investors such as Norway’s fund talking with their wallets.**

If Brexit is such a disaster, how come Europe's firms have DOUBLED their stake in the UK?

The political paralysis in Westminster, the calamitous state of the motor industry, and the mortal damage to immediate business confidence caused by Brexit uncertainty.

Yet while there clearly are difficulties, the nation is selling itself short if it believes that this is the only story.
One doesn’t have to be a Brexiteer to recognise that if one looks beyond Brexit, there is much about Britain to inspire confidence in the future. Not least the fact that it is still the most favoured nation among the 28 states of the European Union for direct investment from overseas.

What makes this even more remarkable is that many of those keeping faith in Britain are state-directed sovereign wealth funds, run, owned and managed by foreign countries.
The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway — worth around £740bn as a result of the country’s oil and gas revenues — recently announced it would continue to invest, and even increase investment, in Britain over the next three decades. If ever there was a morale boost in these uncertain times, this is it.

In addition, even as Brussels negotiators are playing hardball with the May government and warning of the calamity of no deal, it’s clear that European investors do not believe Brexit will have a wholly negative impact on Britain. New data this week shows that in the past 12 months, EU businesses ploughed a staggering £23.9bn into the UK in the shape of property deals, corporate acquisitions and buying stakes in UK firms.

The data, collected by an offshoot of the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s, shows there were 553 separate purchases of assets and that investment was up from £16.3bn on the previous 12 months and £10.5bn in the same period of 2016-17. Overall, European businesses have more than doubled the sums they have invested in Britain in the last three years — which is hardly a vote of no confidence.

Britain has been a destination of choice for Norway’s wealth fund ever since its inception and the country holds stakes worth an astonishing £62bn — around 8 per cent of its total investments — in some of Britain’s biggest enterprises. These include HSBC, which is the nation’s most profitable and global bank, the largest oil company, BP, and UK government debt.

There is no greater compliment any foreign state can pay than to invest in the bonds, known in the UK as gilt edged stock, issued by another country.

Far from being deterred by the turbulence caused by Brexit, funds like Norway’s believe it presents an opportunity because it has had an impact on asset prices in the UK.

The continued success of the City makes its skyscrapers a source of constant attraction for overseas investors, from the Gulf states to greater China. Indeed, Britain is now the number one favoured location for investment by Beijing, which has put money into projects ranging from Hinkley Point, the new nuclear plant in Somerset, to Heathrow Airport.

Brexit or not, Britain remains a major target for corporate and sovereign investors. Those in charge of investment funds have revealed that a bigger worry than Brexit is the possibility of a government led by Jeremy Corbyn and his anointed Chancellor John McDonnell rushing to take valuable privately held assets, such as the water companies, back into public ownership.
Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that in 2017 the value of direct foreign investment in the UK rose by £149bn. Our vibrant financial services sector, a pioneer in developing financial technology, pulled in an astonishing £385bn, up 19.5 per cent from 2016 — the year of the referendum.

Among the sovereign wealth funds, along with Norway and China, those most attracted to the UK are the Gulf states of Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
There is an obsession among many UK and American investors about judging investments in shares and other assets by what is likely to happen over the next three months, let alone the next three or even 30 years.

How reassuring it is to know Britain has friends out there confident enough to ignore those who wail about impending disaster because of Brexit — and instead see a land of opportunity.

www.dailymail.co.uk...


Nice to see there are countries out there that have more faith in *Brexit* than the

largely Remain supporting political class's and the doubting Thomas Remainers.

Might not be quite as sunshine and rainbows as the Mail like to suggest.

blogs.sussex.ac.uk...

originally posted by: eletheia

**How ironic that this message of confidence in a post-Brexit future is being voiced

not by our squabbling and largely Remain-supporting political class but by overseas

investors such as Norway’s fund talking with their wallets.**

If Brexit is such a disaster, how come Europe's firms have DOUBLED their stake in the UK?

The political paralysis in Westminster, the calamitous state of the motor industry, and the mortal damage to immediate business confidence caused by Brexit uncertainty.

Yet while there clearly are difficulties, the nation is selling itself short if it believes that this is the only story.
One doesn’t have to be a Brexiteer to recognise that if one looks beyond Brexit, there is much about Britain to inspire confidence in the future. Not least the fact that it is still the most favoured nation among the 28 states of the European Union for direct investment from overseas.

What makes this even more remarkable is that many of those keeping faith in Britain are state-directed sovereign wealth funds, run, owned and managed by foreign countries.
The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway — worth around £740bn as a result of the country’s oil and gas revenues — recently announced it would continue to invest, and even increase investment, in Britain over the next three decades. If ever there was a morale boost in these uncertain times, this is it.

In addition, even as Brussels negotiators are playing hardball with the May government and warning of the calamity of no deal, it’s clear that European investors do not believe Brexit will have a wholly negative impact on Britain. New data this week shows that in the past 12 months, EU businesses ploughed a staggering £23.9bn into the UK in the shape of property deals, corporate acquisitions and buying stakes in UK firms.

The data, collected by an offshoot of the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s, shows there were 553 separate purchases of assets and that investment was up from £16.3bn on the previous 12 months and £10.5bn in the same period of 2016-17. Overall, European businesses have more than doubled the sums they have invested in Britain in the last three years — which is hardly a vote of no confidence.

Britain has been a destination of choice for Norway’s wealth fund ever since its inception and the country holds stakes worth an astonishing £62bn — around 8 per cent of its total investments — in some of Britain’s biggest enterprises. These include HSBC, which is the nation’s most profitable and global bank, the largest oil company, BP, and UK government debt.

There is no greater compliment any foreign state can pay than to invest in the bonds, known in the UK as gilt edged stock, issued by another country.

Far from being deterred by the turbulence caused by Brexit, funds like Norway’s believe it presents an opportunity because it has had an impact on asset prices in the UK.

The continued success of the City makes its skyscrapers a source of constant attraction for overseas investors, from the Gulf states to greater China. Indeed, Britain is now the number one favoured location for investment by Beijing, which has put money into projects ranging from Hinkley Point, the new nuclear plant in Somerset, to Heathrow Airport.

Brexit or not, Britain remains a major target for corporate and sovereign investors. Those in charge of investment funds have revealed that a bigger worry than Brexit is the possibility of a government led by Jeremy Corbyn and his anointed Chancellor John McDonnell rushing to take valuable privately held assets, such as the water companies, back into public ownership.
Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that in 2017 the value of direct foreign investment in the UK rose by £149bn. Our vibrant financial services sector, a pioneer in developing financial technology, pulled in an astonishing £385bn, up 19.5 per cent from 2016 — the year of the referendum.

Among the sovereign wealth funds, along with Norway and China, those most attracted to the UK are the Gulf states of Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
There is an obsession among many UK and American investors about judging investments in shares and other assets by what is likely to happen over the next three months, let alone the next three or even 30 years.

How reassuring it is to know Britain has friends out there confident enough to ignore those who wail about impending disaster because of Brexit — and instead see a land of opportunity.

www.dailymail.co.uk...


Nice to see there are countries out there that have more faith in *Brexit* than the

largely Remain supporting political class's and the doubting Thomas Remainers.

The hardcore Euro fanatics are not desperate to keep us shackled as they fear we will hurt ourselves. They are desperate to keep us shackled as they know a free UK will succeed and make a mockery of thier whole argument. The argument that future prosperity comes only from giant pan continent centralised bureaucracy.

That's why the EU and the civil service and our own fifth column are desperate for a 'deal' that explicitly prevents us taking competitive advantage.

Freedom cannot be allowed lest it inspires other inmates.

originally posted by: justwokeup

originally posted by: eletheia

**How ironic that this message of confidence in a post-Brexit future is being voiced

not by our squabbling and largely Remain-supporting political class but by overseas

investors such as Norway’s fund talking with their wallets.**

If Brexit is such a disaster, how come Europe's firms have DOUBLED their stake in the UK?

The political paralysis in Westminster, the calamitous state of the motor industry, and the mortal damage to immediate business confidence caused by Brexit uncertainty.

Yet while there clearly are difficulties, the nation is selling itself short if it believes that this is the only story.
One doesn’t have to be a Brexiteer to recognise that if one looks beyond Brexit, there is much about Britain to inspire confidence in the future. Not least the fact that it is still the most favoured nation among the 28 states of the European Union for direct investment from overseas.

What makes this even more remarkable is that many of those keeping faith in Britain are state-directed sovereign wealth funds, run, owned and managed by foreign countries.
The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, Norway — worth around £740bn as a result of the country’s oil and gas revenues — recently announced it would continue to invest, and even increase investment, in Britain over the next three decades. If ever there was a morale boost in these uncertain times, this is it.

In addition, even as Brussels negotiators are playing hardball with the May government and warning of the calamity of no deal, it’s clear that European investors do not believe Brexit will have a wholly negative impact on Britain. New data this week shows that in the past 12 months, EU businesses ploughed a staggering £23.9bn into the UK in the shape of property deals, corporate acquisitions and buying stakes in UK firms.

The data, collected by an offshoot of the credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s, shows there were 553 separate purchases of assets and that investment was up from £16.3bn on the previous 12 months and £10.5bn in the same period of 2016-17. Overall, European businesses have more than doubled the sums they have invested in Britain in the last three years — which is hardly a vote of no confidence.

Britain has been a destination of choice for Norway’s wealth fund ever since its inception and the country holds stakes worth an astonishing £62bn — around 8 per cent of its total investments — in some of Britain’s biggest enterprises. These include HSBC, which is the nation’s most profitable and global bank, the largest oil company, BP, and UK government debt.

There is no greater compliment any foreign state can pay than to invest in the bonds, known in the UK as gilt edged stock, issued by another country.

Far from being deterred by the turbulence caused by Brexit, funds like Norway’s believe it presents an opportunity because it has had an impact on asset prices in the UK.

The continued success of the City makes its skyscrapers a source of constant attraction for overseas investors, from the Gulf states to greater China. Indeed, Britain is now the number one favoured location for investment by Beijing, which has put money into projects ranging from Hinkley Point, the new nuclear plant in Somerset, to Heathrow Airport.

Brexit or not, Britain remains a major target for corporate and sovereign investors. Those in charge of investment funds have revealed that a bigger worry than Brexit is the possibility of a government led by Jeremy Corbyn and his anointed Chancellor John McDonnell rushing to take valuable privately held assets, such as the water companies, back into public ownership.
Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that in 2017 the value of direct foreign investment in the UK rose by £149bn. Our vibrant financial services sector, a pioneer in developing financial technology, pulled in an astonishing £385bn, up 19.5 per cent from 2016 — the year of the referendum.

Among the sovereign wealth funds, along with Norway and China, those most attracted to the UK are the Gulf states of Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
There is an obsession among many UK and American investors about judging investments in shares and other assets by what is likely to happen over the next three months, let alone the next three or even 30 years.

How reassuring it is to know Britain has friends out there confident enough to ignore those who wail about impending disaster because of Brexit — and instead see a land of opportunity.

www.dailymail.co.uk...


Nice to see there are countries out there that have more faith in *Brexit* than the

largely Remain supporting political class's and the doubting Thomas Remainers.

The hardcore Euro fanatics are not desperate to keep us shackled as they fear we will hurt ourselves. They are desperate to keep us shackled as they know a free UK will succeed and make a mockery of thier whole argument. The argument that future prosperity comes only from giant pan continent centralised bureaucracy.

That's why the EU and the civil service and our own fifth column are desperate for a 'deal' that explicitly prevents us taking competitive advantage.

Freedom cannot be allowed lest it inspires other inmates.

The argument is that prosperity is massively helped by unrestricted access to one of the world's largest and wealthiest markets that starts just 30 miles from our border.

a reply to: ScepticScot

The argument is that prosperity is massively helped by unrestricted access to one of the world's largest and wealthiest markets that starts just 30 miles from our border.

I don't think many people would disagree with you.

A Free Trade Association.....that's what we signed up for and there's nothing stopping us entering into such an agreement now.
What we don't want is political union.

It really is that simple.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: ScepticScot

The argument is that prosperity is massively helped by unrestricted access to one of the world's largest and wealthiest markets that starts just 30 miles from our border.

I don't think many people would disagree with you.

A Free Trade Association.....that's what we signed up for and there's nothing stopping us entering into such an agreement now.
What we don't want is political union.

It really is that simple.

The problem with that is if we want full access we have to accept all the rules of single market/customs union.

Only doing it from outside the EU means we have no say on what those rules are.

originally posted by: ScepticScot
The argument is that prosperity is massively helped by unrestricted access to one of the world's largest and wealthiest markets that starts just 30 miles from our border.

Not really unrestricted for services, which is the basis of the UK economy. Great for Germany to sell manufactured goods to the Greeks. The EU internal marketplace is undoubtedly a good thing, but blindly thinking it's been good for all those countries in the EU is swallowing the propaganda hook, line and sinker. Same with the Euro - Good for Germany and co., but not so good for the countries in southern Europe who have stagnated.

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: ScepticScot
The argument is that prosperity is massively helped by unrestricted access to one of the world's largest and wealthiest markets that starts just 30 miles from our border.

Not really unrestricted for services, which is the basis of the UK economy. Great for Germany to sell manufactured goods to the Greeks. The EU internal marketplace is undoubtedly a good thing, but blindly thinking it's been good for all those countries in the EU is swallowing the propaganda hook, line and sinker. Same with the Euro - Good for Germany and co., but not so good for the countries in southern Europe who have stagnated.

Pretty much every serious economist agrees that membership of the single market/customs union is good for the UK. That's not propaganda.

There are of course a mix of benefits and drawbacks but the general consensus is that membership is a strong net economic benefit.

You won't get any argument from me about the Euro which is terribly designed and a massive weight on the economic recovery of many EU states.

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: ScepticScot
The argument is that prosperity is massively helped by unrestricted access to one of the world's largest and wealthiest markets that starts just 30 miles from our border.

Not really unrestricted for services, which is the basis of the UK economy. Great for Germany to sell manufactured goods to the Greeks. The EU internal marketplace is undoubtedly a good thing, but blindly thinking it's been good for all those countries in the EU is swallowing the propaganda hook, line and sinker. Same with the Euro - Good for Germany and co., but not so good for the countries in southern Europe who have stagnated.

Sorry forgot to mention services.

While you are right its not as developed as the market for goods there certainly are major advantages to service sector from single market membership.

a reply to: ScepticScot

The problem with that is if we want full access we have to accept all the rules of single market/customs union.

And therein lies the problem; we don't want political union and will never accept political union.

The UK voted for membership of a Common Market - a Free Trade Association.
We never wanted any part of political union....and hopefully never will.

Any agreement would require compromise on both sides....seems to me the EU expect the UK to be the only one's compromising, typical bully boy tactics.

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Might not be quite as sunshine and rainbows as the Mail like to suggest.

blogs.sussex.ac.uk...

And the Eurozone is not going to be a picnic ..... I for one don't want

to be there when it implodes, which in my view is only a matter of time

makes me feel like what it must feel like on death row.....

**THE THREAT OF A EUROZONE RECESSION**

**The European Parliament elections are less than four months away. Pro-European forces need to campaign for a coordinated effort to counter the cyclical slowdown and– most importantly – for a cohesive and aggressive policy to address Europe’s long-term structural problems. Should they fail, the prospect of a parliament dominated by populist forces will become a reality. And this could mark the beginning of a slow process of European disintegration.

National statistical offices and international organizations are busy revising down their growth forecasts for Europe this year and next. Although they are doing the same for the rest of the world as well, and for China in particular, a slowdown in Europe may have nasty political consequences, in addition to economic costs.

Faced with this deteriorating outlook, eurozone policymakers should ask themselves three questions. The first is whether the eurozone slowdown is temporary, or persistent enough to lead to a possible recession. The second is what kind of recession might occur, and what policymakers can do to counter it. And the third is what Europe must do to address its longer-term structural economic problems.
Regarding the first question, GDP growth forecasts that look more than one quarter ahead are notoriously unreliable. We must therefore get a good grip on the current situation and analyze revisions to growth forecasts over the past year to judge the persistence of bad news.

My company, Now-Casting Economics, first detected a slowdown in the eurozone at the beginning of 2018. We now know that this deceleration started in the third quarter of 2017 and has affected all major eurozone economies, particularly Germany and Italy. This runs contrary to the widely held view of the eurozone as comprising a core of successful countries – especially Germany – and a debt-ridden, slow-growth periphery.

The German economy expanded by 2.2% in 2017, but growth probably slowed to 1.4% in 2018. Quarter-on-quarter growth turned negative in the third quarter of 2018 and is likely to have been close to zero in the final three months of the year. Data releases from Germany have consistently conveyed bad news. Initial signals from surveys, which are timely but volatile, have more recently been confirmed by hard data such as industrial orders, turnover, and new car registrations.
The trend is similar in Italy, where the problem is magnified by the country’s lower potential growth rate. This implies that a slowdown there has a higher chance of leading to a technical recession, normally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
If this flow of bad news is confirmed – and the global slowdown, political uncertainty, and trade disputes suggest that it will be – then the eurozone may fall into a new recession by the end of 2019, just over five years after the end of the last one.

Slow trend growth is particularly problematic in the eurozone, because it makes cooperation among its members harder to achieve. Countries know that it is in their strategic interest to stick together, but doing so will become increasingly difficult if the European project continues to fail to deliver on its promise of economic growth and jobs.

www.project-syndicate.org...

**Recession Risk Rising In Europe**
While many bullish (optimistic) investors were attempting to shrug off the European economic slowdown several months ago, including the ECB, claiming a rebound was just around the corner in 2019,the data is here to refute that claim.

The economic data across the Eurozone has deteriorated at an accelerated pace in 2019 as the probability that the entire Euro Area falls into a recession is rising. While Italy is the only country that is in an officially declared recession at this point, the data is suggestive that Germany, France, and the broader EU are not far behind.

For more....
seekingalpha.com...

originally posted by: ScepticScot

The argument is that prosperity is massively helped by unrestricted access to one of the world's largest and wealthiest markets that starts just 30 miles from our border.

^^^^^see my post above^^^^^

originally posted by: ScepticScot

Pretty much every serious economist agrees that membership of the single market/customs union is good for the UK. That's not propaganda.

REALLY

If that were true I doubt the majority would have voted for Brexit......


Oh wait..... It was only the stupid majority who voted Brexit.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: ScepticScot

The problem with that is if we want full access we have to accept all the rules of single market/customs union.

And therein lies the problem; we don't want political union and will never accept political union.

The UK voted for membership of a Common Market - a Free Trade Association.
We never wanted any part of political union....and hopefully never will.

Any agreement would require compromise on both sides....seems to me the EU expect the UK to be the only one's compromising, typical bully boy tactics.

On the contrary I think the EU has bent over backwards to give the UK an acceptable way out.

Put simply however three main options.

Stay in EU and accept that involves some degree of political union to work.

Stay in single market/customs union and accept that means agreeing to EU trade rules without having a real say in them.

Leave completely and accept that we lose benefits of being in the single market.

There isn't really any other option that is going to materialise no matter how much May & co prevaricate & delay.

originally posted by: eletheia

originally posted by: ScepticScot

Pretty much every serious economist agrees that membership of the single market/customs union is good for the UK. That's not propaganda.

REALLY

If that were true I doubt the majority would have voted for Brexit......


Oh wait..... It was only the stupid majority who voted Brexit.

You don't have to be stupid to have voted for brexit.

Denying that could be any possible consequences from brexit on the other hand.

originally posted by: eletheia

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Might not be quite as sunshine and rainbows as the Mail like to suggest.

blogs.sussex.ac.uk...

And the Eurozone is not going to be a picnic ..... I for one don't want

to be there when it implodes, which in my view is only a matter of time

makes me feel like what it must feel like on death row.....

**THE THREAT OF A EUROZONE RECESSION**

**The European Parliament elections are less than four months away. Pro-European forces need to campaign for a coordinated effort to counter the cyclical slowdown and– most importantly – for a cohesive and aggressive policy to address Europe’s long-term structural problems. Should they fail, the prospect of a parliament dominated by populist forces will become a reality. And this could mark the beginning of a slow process of European disintegration.

National statistical offices and international organizations are busy revising down their growth forecasts for Europe this year and next. Although they are doing the same for the rest of the world as well, and for China in particular, a slowdown in Europe may have nasty political consequences, in addition to economic costs.

Faced with this deteriorating outlook, eurozone policymakers should ask themselves three questions. The first is whether the eurozone slowdown is temporary, or persistent enough to lead to a possible recession. The second is what kind of recession might occur, and what policymakers can do to counter it. And the third is what Europe must do to address its longer-term structural economic problems.
Regarding the first question, GDP growth forecasts that look more than one quarter ahead are notoriously unreliable. We must therefore get a good grip on the current situation and analyze revisions to growth forecasts over the past year to judge the persistence of bad news.

My company, Now-Casting Economics, first detected a slowdown in the eurozone at the beginning of 2018. We now know that this deceleration started in the third quarter of 2017 and has affected all major eurozone economies, particularly Germany and Italy. This runs contrary to the widely held view of the eurozone as comprising a core of successful countries – especially Germany – and a debt-ridden, slow-growth periphery.

The German economy expanded by 2.2% in 2017, but growth probably slowed to 1.4% in 2018. Quarter-on-quarter growth turned negative in the third quarter of 2018 and is likely to have been close to zero in the final three months of the year. Data releases from Germany have consistently conveyed bad news. Initial signals from surveys, which are timely but volatile, have more recently been confirmed by hard data such as industrial orders, turnover, and new car registrations.
The trend is similar in Italy, where the problem is magnified by the country’s lower potential growth rate. This implies that a slowdown there has a higher chance of leading to a technical recession, normally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
If this flow of bad news is confirmed – and the global slowdown, political uncertainty, and trade disputes suggest that it will be – then the eurozone may fall into a new recession by the end of 2019, just over five years after the end of the last one.

Slow trend growth is particularly problematic in the eurozone, because it makes cooperation among its members harder to achieve. Countries know that it is in their strategic interest to stick together, but doing so will become increasingly difficult if the European project continues to fail to deliver on its promise of economic growth and jobs.

www.project-syndicate.org...

**Recession Risk Rising In Europe**
While many bullish (optimistic) investors were attempting to shrug off the European economic slowdown several months ago, including the ECB, claiming a rebound was just around the corner in 2019,the data is here to refute that claim.

The economic data across the Eurozone has deteriorated at an accelerated pace in 2019 as the probability that the entire Euro Area falls into a recession is rising. While Italy is the only country that is in an officially declared recession at this point, the data is suggestive that Germany, France, and the broader EU are not far behind.

For more....
seekingalpha.com...

We are not in the Eurozone and in the event of a major european recession being out with the single market is not going to insulate us from the affects and may well make things worse.

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Put simply however three main options.

Stay in EU and accept that involves some degree of political union to work.

Stay in single market/customs union and accept that means agreeing to EU trade rules without having a real say in them.

Leave completely and accept that we lose benefits of being in the single market.

I say option 3, where do I put my cross? Oh I already did, in the June 2016 referendum.
Option 1 was in the referendum and it lost. Option 2 wasn't an option and why would it, it is a stupid idea and results in even less democracy than the system we voted against.

originally posted by: ScepticScot

Put simply however three main options.

Stay in EU and accept that involves some degree of political union to work.

Stay in single market/customs union and accept that means agreeing to EU trade rules without having a real say in them.

Leave completely and accept that we lose benefits of being in the single market.

There isn't really any other option that is going to materialise no matter how much May & co prevaricate & delay.

So many pundits, commentators etc seem to think they all have a super majic crystal ball and can predict exactly how the outcome of any of the possibilities will support their own viewpoint.

However the govt enacts the EU Withdrawal Act and it's statutory instruments, the UK will immediately be vulnerable to the domestic and foreign vultures currently circling.

originally posted by: 83Liberty

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Put simply however three main options.

Stay in EU and accept that involves some degree of political union to work.

Stay in single market/customs union and accept that means agreeing to EU trade rules without having a real say in them.

Leave completely and accept that we lose benefits of being in the single market.

I say option 3, where do I put my cross? Oh I already did, in the June 2016 referendum.
Option 1 was in the referendum and it lost. Option 2 wasn't an option and why would it, it is a stupid idea and results in even less democracy than the system we voted against.

Yes, option three all the way. Leave and pay nothing. Remaining is unacceptable. Being bound by our opponents is unacceptable.