CDC warns 500,000 will be infected with Ebola by January

originally posted by: JustMike
a reply to: ATF1886
ATF, there's a coding glitch in your link. Just "quote" my post and copy the following link and edit it into your post.

Scientif ic Evidence Proves Ebola Is Airborne and Our Liberian Bound Troops Are Walking Into a Death Trap

 

 

Just thinking about the situation if the number of infected gets to 500,000 -- or frankly, anywhere near a six-figure number. Those are frightening numbers. And for the people who live in the affected regions, even more so.

Frightened people can't always be expected to act or think in the most reasoned way. And if they hear of infected cases reaching many tens of thousands (or even worse), that fear will take hold and guide their actions. Not just in the affected regions themselves, but others around. Many of these people are so poor that they have little to lose by moving away. Their lives (and those of their children!) trump all other considerations anyway. So we'll see more and more "Ebola refugees" and also more situations where people in other regions may act to stop them entering. They are not likely to welcomed, put it that way.

The social implications alone are staggering.

investmentwatchblog.com...

One of my military sources has suggested that this is Obama’s way of covertly building up our troop presence in Africa in preparation for fighting against the Chinese troops. He contends that in actuality, only a small part of Liberian contingent will be put in harms way. The bulk of the troops will be preparing for World War III on the African continent.

Always a hidden agenda in order out of chaos....

a reply to: galadofwarthethird

....the numbers of those actually infected seem to be staying pretty much the same or not spreading exponentially

Problem is, it's already spreading exponentially, and has been for a while now. That's how they got the big numbers.

The analysis examines the local rates of exponential rise to estimate how the reproduction number of cases appears to be changing over time.

If effective control measures are not put in place, and the current rate of exponential rise of new cases continues, we predict 4400 new Ebola cases in West Africa during the last half of the month of September, with an upper 95% confidence level of 6800 new cases.

I know local quarantine is pointless but I do think stopping all non essential flights is a step that needs taking. And denying entry to any travellers with passports from said country's (to stop those getting around quarantine by hoping to a another country)

Fact is with the Sahara desert to the north and the jungles of central Africa surrounding the west African nations it will make it pretty dam hard for any infected persons to break that quarantine and get to the west within the 3 weeks of incubation.

originally posted by: thebtheb


Before you write things of, EDUCATE yourself,

I dont need to I hold a number of relevant qualifications in the area and have worked a good number of years in a micro lab.

What are your qualifications?

originally posted by: thebtheb
read up on Robert Cathcart and Ebola.

I have and he is a BS snake oil salesman.


His whole premise is based on false pseudo science.

originally posted by: thebtheb
If you want to stay safe from Ebola, his advice on vitamin C, massive doses, could save your life.

No it wont. EBOLA IS NOT DAMMED SCURVY!!!!! Vit C will do bloody little to stop it!

a reply to: crazyewok

Most commercial flights have been stopped for a good while now - that's why supplies and personnel can't get in, and why West Africans are starving. ....You'll notice the situation has worsened, not improved.

And btw - if you want to quarantine Africa, you'd best do it forever 'cuz the virus is endemic and well-entrenched in the bat and animal populations if not the soil. So it will never be "safe" to go back for the gold, diamonds, iron ore, uranium, bauxite and the rest of it. In fact, leaving the virus to cruise unhindered through millions of human hosts simply will guarantee the emergence of new mutations, virus evolution and better adaptation for human infection.

originally posted by: soficrow
Commercial flights have been stopped for a good while now

There were still some airlines going in last I checked I thought? I could be wrong?

originally posted by: soficrow
- that's why supplies and personnel can't get in, and why West Africans are starving

Hate to sound heartless but when is that not the case? I dont really care as long as Ebola stays 4000 + miles from me.

I dont see why non essential travel cant be banned but aid flights continue? Not my problem if inept officials in government cant handle the distinction.

originally posted by: soficrow
. ....You'll notice the situation has worsened, not improved.

My views on travels bans are not to improve the situation in west Africa but to reduce the risk to my own fat western arse


Im all for aid flights and sending in doctors and support, I have even contributed to doctors without borders. But I do prefer my Ebola 4000 miles away from me.

a reply to: soficrow

My statement stands. People with Ebola are less infectious before symptoms but testing positive is testing positive. They will be isolated not told, "Come back when symptoms appear, you aren't contagious until then". Not sure it matters anyway. This AM on RT.

Turning infected people away…

I said the world is losing the battle against Ebola - it’s the fact that we’ve been working in the West Africa for the last 6 months, we’ve been opening Ebola-management centers, we have 5 of them, we have 2000 staff on the ground, and every day, for the last many weeks, we have to turn back home the patients that have Ebola, because we don’t have enough isolation beds in our centers. Everyday we are picking up dead bodies at our doorsteps, because the families are coming and leaving their loved ones at our doorsteps, because they want us to care safely about their bodies. This is why we say we’re losing the battle. This should not happen.

The thing that I know is the fact that if we don’t deploy right now, more assets, more workforce, and more isolation beds for infected patients - we will not be able to control and contain this epidemic. Every day that we wait it’s lost lives, but in addition it complexities in terms of how we need to deploy in response. We know that every 3 weeks, more or less, the number of cases are doubling, so it’s exponential.

In deference to what you say about transmissibility? Health workers working directly with infected people in isolation wards:

A. someone is not infected until he has symptoms, and B. it’s contagious via body fluids, meaning that you’re not in contact with anybody’s fluids, you will not get the illness. So, when we talk about the body fluids, we talk about if someone has some ejection from the body, vomit, diarrhea or sweat…

So not shaking hands with anyone, got it. "HI, sweaty palms, put er there." And not touching door knobs, flush handles or salt shakers, either. Health workers have suits on, ordinary people don't. "Someone is not infected until they have symptoms is not the same as "someone is not infect-ious until they have symptoms". Maybe thats how that rumor got started. Ebola can be in someones sweat before symptoms show and wiped on any number of surfaces. You replied to be in another post how it can dry on glass and still be virulent for up to fifty days.

Sophie and Co on RT

a reply to: crazyewok

...I dont see why non essential travel cant be banned but aid flights continue? Not my problem if inept officials in government cant handle the distinction.

What aid flights? Seems the US has promised transport amongst other things, but don't think much has materialized yet. You may not know but...

The WHO doesn't have a giant SWAT team of disease-fighting soldiers ready to swoop into a beleaguered area on an agency-owned transport jet, armed with lifesaving drugs and vaccines. In reality, the WHO begs airlines for tickets in coach, pleads with drug companies and protective gear manufacturers for free handouts, and has only the expertise on hand that governments are prepared to payroll and donate, such as scientists from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Experts advise against Ebola travel ban

There should be no general ban on travel or trade with countries reeling from the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, independent health advisers to the World Health Organisation (WHO) have assessed.

Some airlines have stopped flights to affected areas and WHO and other agencies have said on Monday that this has hampered aid efforts and the ability of experts to reach victims of the world's worst ever outbreak of the hemorrhagic fever.

...."Flight cancellations and other travel restrictions continue to isolate affected countries, resulting in detrimental economic consequences, and hinder relief and response efforts risking further international spread," the statement said.

"The Committee strongly reiterated that there should be no general ban on international travel or trade..."

a reply to: soficrow
Its just my opinion but I think the USA+EU should concentrate on minimising the Ebola risk to us first.

African Economy is very low on my list of priority's.


As for lack of commercial flights restricting aid? Well that's a dam shame but really a issue for those with the logistic capability's.

Fact is I don't want people from these infected country's coming to MY country.

a reply to: intrptr

..."Someone is not infected until they have symptoms is not the same as "someone is not infect-ious until they have symptoms".

You're right, it's not the same - English is not Lui's first language - she used the wrong word. fyi - It's just basic science that viral diseases are not infectious til they start shedding - so the question is, "How can you tell a virus is shedding?" [Hint: The patient becomes symptomatic.] ...There was something much more important to discuss at the end of my post - hopefully you can get to it eventually. More from your source:

My take on this is that I think there’s going to be other biological diseases that are highly infectious that probably will spread to other countries in the future, and getting a know-how on how to deal with that is paramount.

....The thing that I know is the fact that if we don’t deploy right now, more assets, more workforce, and more isolation beds for infected patients - we will not be able to control and contain this epidemic. Every day that we wait it’s lost lives, but in addition it complexifies in terms of how we need to deploy in response. We know that every 3 weeks, more or less, the number of cases are doubling, so it’s exponential.

a reply to: crazyewok

I don't want people from these infected country's coming to MY country.

Are you lobbying to prevent private business flights? You know, all those Execs from mining compamnies, oil consortiums and the like? 'Cuz they account for WAY more international traffic in and out of West Africa than the beleaguered poor. And just so you know, private flights are not subject to the same controls as commercial ones.

Maybe start with these:

* Goodyear (which has huge rubber operations in Liberia)

* Rio Tinto (mining in Guinea)

* Titanium Resources Group (Sierra Leone)

* Shell (Nigeria)

* Bristish Petroleum (Nigeria)

....and there are more.

a reply to: soficrow

We know that every 3 weeks, more or less, the number of cases are doubling, so it’s exponential.

Yah, I bolded that in my post reply to you.

That interview is surely compelling and full of current info from the director (boots on ground) in the Hot Zone.

May we all rest in peaces.

a reply to: soficrow

"How can you tell a virus is shedding?"

When they sweat. if tested positive I am pretty sure that sweat is infectious.

a reply to: intrptr

You keep missing the point - and the important info - 'cuz you did not read to the end of my post. If you want to keep arguing basic science, you'll lose.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: crazyewok

I don't want people from these infected country's coming to MY country.

Are you lobbying to prevent private business flights? You know, all those Execs from mining compamnies, oil consortiums and the like? 'Cuz they account for WAY more international traffic in and out of West Africa than the beleaguered poor. And just so you know, private flights are not subject to the same controls as commercial ones.

Maybe start with these:

* Goodyear (which has huge rubber operations in Liberia)

* Rio Tinto (mining in Guinea)

* Titanium Resources Group (Sierra Leone)

* Shell (Nigeria)

* Bristish Petroleum (Nigeria)

....and there are more.

Yup but we both know its never going to happen

a reply to: soficrow

You keep missing the point - and the important info - 'cuz you did not read to the end of my post. If you want to keep arguing basic science, you'll lose.

The point I am trying to get you to back off making is that it is not transmissible until symptoms show. it is erroneous and misleading.

If you got it, you can give it.

Pretty certain that the 500k figure is well within the range predicted by ikonoklast in his excellent thread titled,Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data, more specifically in this post wherein he begins giving a range or projection for infections as shown here:

Click the graphic for a larger version.

Regards the phrase "exponential growth:"

Due to the R0 factor, it was exponential from patient zero through today; and on into the future until and unless interventions begin to bring the R0 to less than one.

Epidemiological modelling based on the data from previous EBOV outbreaks has produced a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.7 with a 95% confidence range of 1.9 to 4.1 (Legrand et al., 2007). This R0 is comparable to influenza (Mills et al., 2004) and would seem to be comfortably within the range required to generate an EVD pandemic. In answer to the question of why this has not already occurred in human history, perhaps the most persuasive response is that EVD very fortunately only emerged into human populations around the time of its discovery in the mid-1970s (Walsh et al., 2005), by which time we were fairly equipped to deal with it in remote low population density settings. Whether we can contain it within a large city, should the necessity to do so arise, remains to be seen.

The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in west Africa

Regards mode of transmission and when a patirnt can infect others, I have been posting about the dangers of indirect transmission and the seeming ease at which it appears to have been happening. This is especially important in light of the fact of the high number of the leading doctors researching and fighting this that have contracted the virus.

Following the introduction of Ebola virus in the human population through animal-to-human transmission, person-to-person transmission by direct contact bodily fluids/secretions of infected persons is considered the principal mode of transmission. Indirect contact with environment and fomites soiled with contaminated bodily fluids (e.g. needles) may also occur. Airborne transmission has not been documented during previous EVD outbreaks.

There is no risk of transmission during the incubation period.

Ebola virus disease (EVD), implications of introduction in the Americas

I don't think it is "no risk of transmission," rather I think it is low risk; nonzero:

A pregnant woman who went for her usual check up at the First Consultant Hospital Obalande – same hospital that Patrick Sawyer was admitted – tested positive of the virus on Friday. She got infected after being treated by the same nurse, Obi Justina Ejelonu, who attended to the Liberian carrier, Patrick Sawyer.

Recall that two nurses came in direct contact with Mr. Sawyer and one of them died last week – the other nurse, Justina is still alive. The pregnant woman has since been quarantined at the mainland hospital where there is an isolation emergency centre for Ebola virus victims.

source

If she (the infected nurse) was showing symptoms, how is it that she was able to perform her duties?

How many other people did she infect?

From the nurse:

“I never contacted his fluids.i checked his Vitals,helped him with his food.(he was too weak)…..i basically touched where his hands touched and dats d only contact.not directly wt his fluids.@a stage,he yanked off his infusion and we had blood everywhere on his bed…..but d ward maids took care of that and changed his linens with great precaution.everypatient is treated as high risk …..if it were airborne,by now wahala for dey.i still thank God.”

“Friends,upto our uniforms n all linens were burnt off.we r on surveillance n off work till 11th. Our samples v long bn taken by WHO n so far we v been fine. For me,kudos to my hospital managt cos we work proffessionally wt every patient considered risk cos thats d training.had it been its a hospital where they manage ordinar gloves lik Govt hospital n some janjaweed private hosp..:lol….wahala for dey o.i must also thank Lagos Govt….infact! Even fed govt sef….all been supportive.im good n so r the others in d hosp…..”

link
The Case Fatality Rate is substantially less than in prior outbreaks and there is also significant genetic differences from the Old ZEBOV. I firmly believe that the virus has evolved according to the trade-off hypothesis:

The trade-off hypothesis suggests that there is a trade off between how long the virus or other pathogen is able to persist in its host and the rate at which the virus or other pathogen can be transmitted. The trade off hypothesis suggests that virulence will evolve to a level at which virulence and transmission is balanced so as to maximize the spread of the virus.

Virulence Evolution


Folks, this is serious.

To Crazy Ewok,

Vitamin C, when absorbed through the cell acts as an RNA replication suppressor. If you can get the VitC to the cells directly (either through mega-doses, or Liposomal ingestion) it would prevent any virus from replicating within the living cell. Although not a cure by definition, stopping the virus from replicating would prevent the virus from overtaking the host.

Silver Solutions would also provide some protection, as Silver molecules are natural UV emitters, UV light can kill a wide spectrum of viruses (think UV cleaning wands for kitchen surfaces), silver can easily bond with hemoglobin in place of the 2 oxygen molecules and be transported throughout the body, bring UV emitters to every inch of your body (in low enough doses to cause no harm to ourselves, but enough to kill the virus).

I understand you are not a fan of the systems, and view them as "snake oil", others reading this tread might not be so fast to shrug them off as you have, and for their sake I wanted to add this post.

None of the things written above are "false", weather you believe they work as intended is a valid concern, but to disregard what could be the answer to an ever evolving/adapting killer would be foolish as well one would think.

Both of these "snake oil" solutions would be successful whether Ebola mutates or not (virus can't replicate it dies, UV light kills this virus), none of the solutions you are supporting would remain valid after a mutation occurred.

I think rather than attempting to find the anti-virus to an ever changing virus it might make more sense to kill it (silvers solution) and prevent it from replication (VitC), using inexpensive items we already can have access to worldwide. But this is just my opinion.

God Bless,

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Outstanding post JAS, puts my stuff to shame. Yes the fight in a big city will be the first time for Ebola. Up until now Ebola has broken in more rural environments and the hypothesis is that is why it was easier to contain there. A big city with millions of people is a different matter.

Options to contain the spread beyond the city limits will depend on a great host of factors, but seem unlikely to succeed since so far they haven't worked elsewhere in smaller population centers.