CDC warns 500,000 will be infected with Ebola by January

500,000 is a lot of people, if they're counting all infected and all that have died already from in with in the year I can see that number. If they're just counting living infected I don't see that happening unless a carrier makes it to another nation and starts a new spread.

The virus will be fine in colder weather so no matter the temp out side your not any safer from it. On the up side due to the drop in temp with winter coming around in my area if it does spread it'll have a harder time. Winter mean less exposed skin almost to full body coverage which will hinder it.

But back at hand, for it to get to a large number such as 500,000 it'll have to find another nation or two to spread too. Maybe someplace with a larger city population to pull it off with in the year. But if it makes it to the number that way we'll have a hard time stopping it without doing something drastic.

a reply to: intrptr

The period for exponential doubling is as short as 2 weeks in some areas.

a reply to: soficrow

More or less. She also states, we are in unknown territory. Chain of transmission in densely populated cities will be fast. We don't have the figures for that yet.

Thats why I brought the ping pong video. At some point the exponential doubling becomes a firestorm, like fission.

zzzzt… all dead. Then it moves on, sneaking its way into a new city, to hide and begin again.

originally posted by: intrptr
a reply to: soficrow

"How can you tell a virus is shedding?"

When they sweat. if tested positive I am pretty sure that sweat is infectious.

So if sweat is infectious, in a hot country in a crowded market if someone brushes up against you that could be it ?

I am not a biologist or doctor, but skin that is not broken or cut might not absorb the virus, but the virus could mingle with the sweat of the uninfected person, and if they wipe that spot and then perhaps are eating. I am really not sure how it could work.

originally posted by: ObjectZero
500,000 is a lot of people, if they're counting all infected and all that have died already from in with in the year I can see that number. If they're just counting living infected I don't see that happening unless a carrier makes it to another nation and starts a new spread.

..........and if it mutates and goes airborn it could kill over 1,000,000
"Rapidly mutating Ebola virus would kill 1.2 million people if it goes airborne, expert predicts"
www.naturalnews.com...

a reply to: intrptr

Thanks for your input too, and I do appreciate your contributions. ...My concern with focusing on the start time of contagion is that it might be a red herring, while the real concern should be modes of transmission, and reservoirs. ....Found a good headline and started a new thread on it: Could the Ebola Outbreak Last Forever?


....really wish I had more time to spend here, sorry if I'm short. Don't mean to be rude.

a reply to: Blue_Jay33

So if sweat is infectious, in a hot country in a crowed market if someone brushes up against you that could be it ?

Potentially, yah. It lives outside on surfaces, too for up to fifty days according to one experimental study that Soficrow brought. It is in this thread and I don't have time to find and link it for you. I am busy this AM, will check back later in the afternoon. Maybe soficrow can get back to you on that earlier.

The article I read this morning said 1.5 million

CDC scientists conclude there may be as many as 21,000 reported and unreported cases in just those two countries as soon as the end of this month, according to a draft version of the report obtained by The Associated Press. They also predict that the two countries could have a staggering 550,000 to 1.4 million cases by late January.

Sorry I can't quote on my phone

a reply to: Royal76

Yes. Eugenics went underground after WW2 and got re-packaged as "genetics." Most everyone with a "higher education," especially in medicine and science, has been indoctrinated. They're wrong of course, as epigenetics is proving now, but it will take another generation to reverse the bad dogma.

a reply to: 727Sky

And they're describing the lockdown as "successful." Wotta joke.

….The majority of the recent deaths recorded at the cemetery were young people — young adults, people in early middle age, or children — with very few elderly people on the list. Several of the deaths also occurred in a concentrated area, sometimes in the same house, suggesting that a virulent infection had struck.

….In one of them, the house of Momoh Lomeh, the residents said that a total of five people who lived there had died of Ebola — yet four of them did not even appear on the cemetery list.

….At another six households on the cemetery supervisor’s list of the dead, residents gave similar accounts. One family said the victim had definitely died of Ebola, while five others described Ebola-like symptoms — vomiting, diarrhea, fever — though none had been given an official cause of death.

…..International health experts here had no explanation for the striking discrepancy between the government’s tally of the dead in the capital and the cemetery crew’s statistics. Several of them noted the general confusion surrounding official statistics here from the beginning, with one leading international health official saying: “We don’t know exactly what is going on.”

originally posted by: Blue_Jay33

originally posted by: intrptr
a reply to: soficrow

"How can you tell a virus is shedding?"

When they sweat. if tested positive I am pretty sure that sweat is infectious.

So if sweat is infectious, in a hot country in a crowded market if someone brushes up against you that could be it ?

I am not a biologist or doctor, but skin that is not broken or cut might not absorb the virus, but the virus could mingle with the sweat of the uninfected person, and if they wipe that spot and then perhaps are eating. I am really not sure how it could work.

If I may,

The finding of EBO virus antigens and virus particles in the skin of EHF patients provides new insights into a possible epidemiologic role for contact transmission and strategies for disease spread and prevention. A study showed that direct physical contact with an infected person during the clinically apparent phase of illness was the most important risk factor for secondary household transmission of EHF during the Kikwit outbreak [49]. Furthermore, even when adjusted for contact with the living patient, touching the cadaver remained an independent risk factor. One possible explanation for the role of direct physical contact in transmission is the presence of abundant virus particles and antigens in the skin in and around sweat glands. 

A Novel Immunohistochemical Assay for the Detection of Ebola Virus in Skin: Implications for Diagnosis, Spread, and Surveillance of Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever

Keep in mind that this is older research and as such may not be as applicable. One thing that is certain, the longer the outbreak continues, the more chances the genetic lottery has...

What pissing me off is all the people traveling to these places and bringing it home...

That should be considered a crime in the same genre as terrorism.
If you go to a Ebola infected country, FINE you just stay there until you are dead or the virus is.

The R nought for Ebola is now 4, by comparison measles max out at 18.

But measles don't have a 50 percent fatality rate.

AIDS is 2-5

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

My concern is not so much that Ebola might mutate to become airborne H2H, but that it already is between pigs, and from pigs to monkeys at least. ALL of the current projections focus exclusively on H2H transmission, and analyses predicting the epidemic will "burn itself out" also assume exclusive H2H transmission.

BUT - Ebola is a zoonosis - it bounces back and forth between animals and people by various means. Everyone is forgetting that.

Please, check out my new thread: Could the Ebola Outbreak Last Forever?



Thanks, sofi

originally posted by: Blue_Jay33
The R nought for Ebola is now 4, by comparison measles max out at 18.

But measles don't have a 50 percent fatality rate.

AIDS is 2-5

Got a link for that R0 of 4 for Ebola now?

I've seen research suggesting it could get as high as 8.5, but most recent published research I find still has it around 2 to 2.5:

The best-fit estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.52 for Guinea, 2.42 for Sierra Leone and 1.65 for Liberia. The model shows that control efforts in Guinea and Sierra Leone were successful in reducing the effective reproduction number below unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates an effective reproduction number of around 1.5 in mid-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Estimating the reproduction number of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa



a reply to: soficrow

BUT - Ebola is a zoonosis - it bounces back and forth between animals and people by various means. Everyone is forgetting that.

Agreed.

Saw your thread and will have something related later today.

In a lighter note, check out my short story entry:

A Turn of the Dial [PAN2014]

a reply to: galadofwarthethird

...i see were you get your number could exponentially grow...

Not my number - teams of damn good researchers around the world are projecting these numbers - and their work is being published in highly respected scientific and medical journals.

...Good thinking overall.

imho - Ebola will end up much like H5N1 bird flu - endemic in the region, and bouncing back and forth between people and animals. What can I say? It's an evolutionary thing and pretty much exactly the way things are supposed to work. Except for the part about human intervention, pollution, contamination and rapidly accelerating viral and microbial evolution as a result of environmental change.

a reply to: intrptr

Too True. ...My big concern is that right now, everyone's focusing on H2H transmission, and ignoring the fact that Ebola is a zoonosis. Just wait.

I expected 500,000 cases to be the upper limit today, not 1.4 freaking million!

And people I know, sheeple, read the headlines today. So they know...and they DON'T CARE.

They are like deer in the headlights.

Some people say they are athiest, but they must believe in God if they think these numbers are nothing to be alarmed about and that it will all take care of itself.

I am so disappointed in my species. What a world.

a reply to: Spacespider

They are in denial. Denial is going to kill so many people.

And I have a sinking suspicion that people who are infected with Ebola, even carriers, are under virus "mind-control" and they subconsciously seek to spread the virus. That's why such people would get on planes to leave where they are from.

Even when I am sick often I go outside for a walk to be around people so that I don't become anxious.

Can you imagine what people who are coming down with Ebola will do?

so would not this thread be more correct??

CDC Predicts 1 Million Ebola Cases by January 2015

www.abovetopsecret.com...

hard too keep track,,up to date,,