CDC warns 500,000 will be infected with Ebola by January

originally posted by: makemap
Don't listen that you need more doctors in one area, its a freaking trap. All the Doctors are just going to be murdered by the one mad person.

#1 Here is how to get rid of Ebola, shut border.
#2 Find the Source (which no one does anymore)
#3 Cremate/Disinfect starting from the Source.
#4 Recycle Water to be clean again.

In an ideal world, your outlined suggestions might work. The problem is that west Africa is far from being ideal in any respects related to your specified points.

#1. Shutting the border/s (there are several around infected regions) is not going to work. In many places, the borders are just lines on a map and local people cross from region to region with no great regard to such things. Also, there aren't the resources to effectively guard and police miles and miles of borders. And even if they tried, it won't stop people moving around, nor will it stop the animal vectors (like bats) that may carry the disease.

#2. With thousands of people already (officially) infected across several countries, trying to identify and isolate the various sources may now be beyond the abilities of the personnel they have available. They can't keep up with the case load now, let alone do detailed follow-ups on possible sources.

#3. If you mean cremating the deceased who have died from Ebola, there is a problem. It's a religious/cultural one. For example in Sierra Leone, more than half the population is Muslim. Muslims do not cremate their dead; it is forbidden. They must bury them. The govts in this part of the world know this and so they will not enforce cremation to dispose of the dead.

As for disinfecting, you are right to make the point that it would be useful. But it's reality versus the ideal here: it's nigh on impossible in many places to disinfect effectively. People are living in very poor, squalid conditions. Dirt floors in their huts. No sanitation, even no running water. Open sewers. The infrastructure just isn't there and these poor countries don't have the resources to fix these problems in the short term. And in Sierra Leone this weekend, they have been handing out soap, because a lot of people simply didn't have any. Poor people buy food first and anything else after -- if they have any money left. Many are so poor that buying soap would be a luxury they could not afford.

#4. I guess you mean water treatment and filtration plants and the like. Again, it's desperately needed and you're quite right to point this out. But the problem is as I mentioned above. They don't have good infrastructure in many areas. Water sources are often poor to begin with.

a reply to: intrptr

Personally I am amazed we haven't done ourselves in already. Whats taking so long? Who's protecting the garden from its destruction?

It's that exponential thing again. We just haven't quite hit the last hour of the last day.

a reply to: rickymouse

But I think it's good to stay healthy - just do NOT try and treat a cytokine storm by boosting your immune system. Bad idea that.


Disclaimer: Seek medical attention when sick. However, if hospitals are over-run, under-staffed, over-flowing -and you know you or a loved one has Ebola- treat the inflammation and do NOT take herbs or anything that boosts or generates cytokine production.

If it gets to 500,000 mathematically there is nothing really that can be done to stop it from spreading
No border can withstand the will and determination of the multitudes who may be unknowingly infected but want to survive.
And because of this,one could surmise a dis-information protocol is underway for just such an outbreak, with the goal of keeping these poor people from jumping borders

be informed
en.wikipedia.org...
www.webmd.com...

originally posted by: crazyewok

originally posted by: ATF1886
S&F as always yea im stocking up on nano silver vitamin c oregeno oil

Dont buy the snake oil BS

That wont but a dent in a Ebola infection.

Before you write things of, EDUCATE yourself, read up on Robert Cathcart and Ebola. If you want to stay safe from Ebola, his advice on vitamin C, massive doses, could save your life.

originally posted by: vaibow123

I think what frightens me, is the quiet time/incubation period.

If it can be contracted and carried for a few weeks before signs even show, then this is where the repercussions are serious - as everyone is saying.

If a terrorist group, whether it be home grown or over seas really wanted to do some damage - all they need is one person to come in contact with an infected individual then spend the next fortnight on as much public transport/places as they can - that would do more damage than any suicide bombing. Frightening.

No. That's an urban myth. Ebola is not infectious until symptoms appear - once symptoms appear, the 'host' gets bloody sick incredibly fast. Too sick to walk around a lot, and definitely sick enough that everyone will avoid him. Even if they just think he's falling down drunk.

Just clink on the linkie and read this one:

Boneheaded ISIS Threat: We Will Infect U.S. With Ebola

Here's one terror threat you can ignore

….Unless ISIS recruits an expert from the Centers for Disease Control, we’re fine.

investmentwatchblog.com..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow">http:// investmentwatchblog.com...

a reply to: ATF1886
ATF, there's a coding glitch in your link. Just "quote" my post and copy the following link and edit it into your post.

Scientif ic Evidence Proves Ebola Is Airborne and Our Liberian Bound Troops Are Walking Into a Death Trap




Just thinking about the situation if the number of infected gets to 500,000 -- or frankly, anywhere near a six-figure number. Those are frightening numbers. And for the people who live in the affected regions, even more so.

Frightened people can't always be expected to act or think in the most reasoned way. And if they hear of infected cases reaching many tens of thousands (or even worse), that fear will take hold and guide their actions. Not just in the affected regions themselves, but others around. Many of these people are so poor that they have little to lose by moving away. Their lives (and those of their children!) trump all other considerations anyway. So we'll see more and more "Ebola refugees" and also more situations where people in other regions may act to stop them entering. They are not likely to welcomed, put it that way.

The social implications alone are staggering.

They said Aids would kill us off.
look at how much Ebola has NOT done?
its been going on for a year!
and we dont have that many death.

Ebola is a Fail at mass kill offs.
they have, are still messing up stoping it.

The Only way it could become a mass out break.
it that it has a great deal of help.

The film Contagion pretty much is becoming art imitating life.

Ebola has already been in the state far before it was announced.
This particular strain is straight up a manmade altered design. Tuskegee Experiment 3.0.
There will be strains that target people with certain genes, like AIDS.
This will hit certain sectors of the population with certain lifestyle habits first, then miracuously mutate and spread to others.

Looks to be a great way for the government to get martial law, kill off minorities demanding for government dole because the government failed them, and those pesky illegal Mexicans that breed like roaches.

Yep. It could be like AIDS with Europe developing a cure first, then blackballed from releasing it.

America is as gutter dirty as you can get. #hopeandchange

originally posted by: Wirral Bagpuss
Now might be a good time to watch BBC Survivors and Twelve Monkeys. They both dealt with the threat of a plague/disease that would wipe out mankind. Survivors is excellent. It shows what happens when most of the world's population is dead and global population is only a few million or so. No government, nothing.

I always thought it would be a reoccurrence of the 1918 flu that would be the end of us. Now it seems Ebola could well become the most serious threat to date. Heck if it came to it I would stock up on food and water etc and isolate myself if it became an epidemic here. I would either go and hide in the Scottish Highlands and islands or the most rural part of Wales. I do have a bolt away in a very remote place that I can get to for when things get out of control.

Sorry to have to tell you, but there are LOTS of biological threats running around - and that's just counting the currently evolving, mutating and adapting ones. ....If you want the list, just let me know.

But yes, Ebola is the disease du jour. And we'd best stop that epidemic before it mutates much more.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: Char-Lee

We should be afraid. We are contaminating our planet with nearly 100,000 synthetic chemicals that can combine into an infinite number of new never-seen-before chemical compounds. We're messing with the nano-structures of our world along with molecules. Of course microbes, viruses and fungi are mutating - they need to adapt and evolve to survive in the new environment we have created. and fyi - so do we - this is NOT the Earth we evolved to live and thrive on. ...A big part of the evolutionary process is disease. Sucks, but true.


I agree on the big picture..

a reply to: soficrow

Thats a good example of mathematical progression but thats not reflected in the real world. For instance, the Bubonic plague stopped and so did the Influenza after WWI.

Populations have not doubled to exponential levels yet because something culls then once in a while. War famine disease, "natural" disaster . The four horseman of the apocalypse rings a bell.

Ebola would sustain exponential growth in a city but burn itself out as victims die and others flee. Like a city that is being shelled, people evacuate and the killing stops or slows, until the next city and the next. Jumping oceans adds more delay.

Rather than the mathematical 1,2,4,8 progression i prefer the comparison to uncontrolled chain reaction of fission or… Ping Pong balls and mouse traps:

a reply to: soficrow

No. That's an urban myth. Ebola is not infectious until symptoms appear -

I keep hearing that.

More correctly, Ebola is less infectious before symptoms appear. Once symptoms appear it is easier to get it from a host because they are exuding hot snot, sneezes, whatever. It is transmissible from as little as one to ten virus particles.

You could prove that by receiving a transfusion from someone who tests positive but its not yet showing symptoms. You will probably contract it as a result.

Less infectious just means there are less virus in the body and less potential to get it. The more virus the more potential to spread it. What matters more is the closeness of contact with the host, no matter what stage they are in.

a reply to: intrptr

It's not about how "much" or little virus is in the body - it's about when the viruses start "shedding." ....

Viral shedding refers to the expulsion and release of virus progeny following successful reproduction during a host-cell infection. Once replication has been completed and the host cell is exhausted of all resources in making viral progeny, the viruses may begin to leave the cell by several methods.[1]

The term is used to refer to shedding from a single cell, shedding from one part of the body into another part of the body,[2] and shedding from bodies into the environment where the viruses may infect other bodies.[3]

Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Virus Transmission from Bodily Fluids and Fomites

....the shedding of EBOV in saliva corresponded almost exactly to the period of viremia, with the last positive saliva specimen noted at day 8 after disease onset.

....The isolation of virus from breast milk in one case even after clearance from the blood suggests that transmission may occur even during convalescence. It is possible that the mammary gland, like the gonads [5] and chambers of the eye [13, 14], is an immunologically protected site in which clearance of virus is delayed. However, we cannot rule out that the finding simply represents residual EBOV secreted into the milk during the period of viremia but not expressed until some days later...

....The isolation of EBOV from semen 40 days after the onset of illness underscores the risk of sexual transmission of the filoviruses during convalescence. Zaire EBOV has been detected in the semen of convalescent patients by virus isolation (82 days) and RT-PCR (91 days) after disease onset [5, 14].

....The absence of EBOV infection in multiple tested urine specimens suggests that the virus may not be efficiently filtered in the kidney. Consequently, exposure to urine appears to be of low risk during both acute illness and convalescence. The absence of EBOV in the urine, low prevalence on the skin, and rapid clearance from the saliva in surviving patients provides some reassurance that the risk of secondary transmission from casual contacts, fomites, or the sharing of toilet facilities in the home after discharge from the hospital is minimal. This conclusion is supported by previous empirical observations [5, 6].

....Other than in samples grossly contaminated with blood, EBOV was not found by any method on environmental surfaces and by RT-PCR on the skin of only 1 patient. These results suggest that environmental contamination and fomites are not frequent modes of transmission, at least in an isolation ward.

....Taken together, our results support the conventional assumptions and field observations that most EBOV transmission comes from direct contact with blood or bodily fluids of an infected patient during the acute phase of illness. The risk of casual contacts with the skin, such as shaking hands, is likely to be low. Environmental contamination and fomites do not appear to pose a significant risk when currently recommended infection control guidelines for the viral hemorrhagic fevers are followed.

And then there's this...

Replication, Pathogenicity, Shedding, and Transmission of Zaire ebolavirus in Pigs

....Results. Following mucosal exposure, pigs replicated ZEBOV to high titers (reaching 107 median tissue culture infective doses/mL), mainly in the respiratory tract, and developed severe lung pathology. Shedding from the oronasal mucosa was detected for up to 14 days after infection, and transmission was confirmed in all naive pigs cohabiting with inoculated animals.

Conclusions. These results shed light on the susceptibility of pigs to ZEBOV infection and identify an unexpected site of virus amplification and shedding linked to transmission of infectious virus.

Discussion
.........There is increasing experimental evidence indicating that the Ebola virus glycoprotein can mediate entry from the apical side into intact airway epithelia of mouse, nonhuman primate, or human origin [28, 30–32]. The presence of Ebola antigens was also detected in the respiratory mucosa, alveoli, and pulmonary lymphatic tissue of nonhuman primates following aerosolized Ebola challenge, demonstrating that the virus can infect nonhuman primates through mucosal exposure with ebolavirus [33].

.....These studies underline some differences in the pathology induced by ZEBOV in pigs, compared with nonhuman primates and humans. In contrast to the severe systemic syndrome often leading to shock and death in primates, pigs developed a respiratory syndrome that could be mistaken for other porcine respiratory diseases.

....These data also have implications for the management of human outbreaks following accidental or hypothetically intentional exposure of pigs to Ebola virus.(!)

wow - great reply - thanks a reply to: rickymouse

great reply - thanks

a reply to: soficrow

a reply to: BobAthome
OK dude. My bad. It would suck big time and blow big chunks, I mean it would really not be a fun time at all. If what this thread purposes to be true actually is and comes to pass. Somebody should like get on it or something, to bad we cant like just you know punch Ebola in the face till it goes away.

But in all, lets look at this simple fact that while numbers of would be cases of people which can be infected seems to be going up, but all while the numbers of those actually infected seem to be staying pretty much the same or not spreading exponentially. Or at least so far. But hey its not January yet, so while precautions are necessary and people and governments should do everything necessary for themselfs, or those who are exposed to it, and do everything necessary withing there power for this thing to not spread.

So lets not jump the gun that its a mass epidemic and possibly the zombie apocalypse in the making, and come January or before that month we will see what happens. Who knows maybe it really will spread like wildfire and 500,000 people would be infected and dying...That would not be gnarly at all, nope not at all.