Quake Watch 2014

a reply to: muzzy
That was a lot of nice work Muzzy. It makes it very easy to zoom into a region and get the large quake history. Kudos, sir! I also really like the time-line graphs.



My hunch with the solar-activity/earthquakes is that it is hit-or-miss. There may be some tenuous connection, but solar activity doesn't precede every large earthquake--therefore, it isn't particularly useful for prediction.
(There was one more x-class flare about 6 hours ago--3 total now)

**************************************

After a relatively quiet period of seismic activity in the Los Angeles area, the last five months have been marked by five earthquakes larger than 4.0. That hasn't occurred since 1994, the year of the destructive Northridge earthquake that produced 53 such temblors.

LA Times

Make that a total of (6) Mag 4.0 or greater for the year in the Los Angeles area: this morning.

A light earthquake occurred at 2:38:05 AM (PDT) on Wednesday, June 11, 2014.
The magnitude 4.0 event occurred 16 km (10 miles) NE (37 degrees) of Barstow, CA.
The hypocentral depth is 2 km ( 1 mile).

data from SCEC

Mag 4.0 is small, but it seems strange to me that this Barstow quake hasn't produced a single aftershock.

More quotes from Lucy Jones, USGS go-to spokesperson, found in the Los Angeles Times article linked above:

Earthquake experts said 2014 is clearly a year of increased seismic activity, but they said it's hard to know whether the recent string of quakes suggests that a larger one is on the way.

"Every earthquake makes another earthquake more likely."

"That's definitely way more than the long-term average," Jones said. "Is that something to worry about? If we knew that, we'd be predicting earthquakes."

I don't know what this is. I've checked the other seismos and they are not showing anything similar. I've been watching at least a month or more and haven't seen anything like it on this particular seismo. At first I thought was just wind. But I looked at the weather maps and satellite maps and found nothing. So, I'm just going with electrical transmission issue or such. Yellowstone has the LKWY which does something like it. Maybe it's the air conditioner? I don't know.




Oh by the way it's Momotombo.

a reply to: Olivine
thanks for taking a look at it.

but wait ............that's not all

what about the TTNT energy released?
it looks a bit different. dl.dropboxusercontent.com...
although obviously the M8's jump off the graph, 1997 was interesting as its stands out, that was a couple of big quakes South of the Kermadec Is. a 7.11 (foreshock) and a 7.87 (mainshock)
2007 had that 7.66 between Kermadecs and Tonga, which we felt here in Kapiti (a Sunday afternoon watching TV, the whole Australian Plate seemed to be wobbling) and a 7.3 down at the Auckland Islands (which we didn't feel here)
2009 is the 7.8 Dusky Sound, which is the biggest recorded quake (apart from the M8's) on land in NZ.
Until Christchurch 2010/2011, the Murchison 7.3 of 1929 and the 1931 Napier 7.4 and 7.3 Hawke Bay were the most destructive, and the TTNT graph shows this. There were others offshore of higher magnitude, mostly Kermadecs or Auckland Islands in other years.

a reply to: Olivine

Full Moon tomorrow,
as good a day for a big one as any.
Lets hope not too big.

a reply to: ericblair4891

Strange, the seismogram you show is not anything like what is current on the site

Click the image to enlarge

Maybe they have a problem with the instrument of the transmission? All that is shown on your version has gone.

a reply to: Olivine

So, the data seems to show that there is no correlation between solar activity and earthquakes.

However that does not mean there is no relationship between the Sun and earthquakes. The solar system barycentre I believe has much to do with things and the apparent 55/56 year cycle of great earthquakes needs some explaining.

I agree that solar flares and earthquakes do not show much correlation but there are definite cycles. Maybe it is just the stress build up that gives a cyclical look to these things stress-bust-stress-bust-stress-bust-stress-bust etc.

Whether it's the sun, the moon, the magnetosphere, the plates, the growing earth, the 55/56 cycle, or just stress, the common denominator no matter other source, will be water. Water is the most dynamic thing of all is water. We are nothing without it. Deep within the earth, there is water. Does the inner earth's ocean react to tidal forces?

Those that know me, know I am obsessed with water. Here's a report that states that there is confirmation, using seismology, to show there is water in the crust...

www.theweathernetwork.com...

I know I posted this before, but now it seems proven.

It's quiet, yes. Tidal lock. The problem with studying a correlation with the moon is that it is consistent. Often I notice that at the time of a full moon, or new moon, sometimes it's quieter than normal. Then, a few days after, we can have a global surge. Other times, the clusters come at the time of the full moon. I think the difficulty in studying it is that the moon and it's cycles are not one step. It's a series, and the activity comes at different times depending on different conditions. It is not a single cycle. Think of it as an engine. Maybe a four stroke engine as opposed to a two stroke. Anyway, there's water in the crust.

Had to add. So, it's quiet again. This will not last. And it's always exciting to see how the next big ones unfold. I just checked Volcano Watch and I think Puterman's number show what I had already suspected. The volcanoes are also fairly quiet. I'm in a snit because the Ubinas camera isn't working. But it's not my imagination. Last week there were a couple of blasts, but the last few days have been so boring. ? No predictions. I'm still waiting on a big one up in Alaska.

a reply to: ericblair4891

Often I notice that at the time of a full moon, or new moon, sometimes it's quieter than normal

Yes, I think we can discount the Moon Cycle/Phase Points as having any direct influence on earthquakes, in 2014 at least
Hopefully this timeline graph makes sense

(click image for larger version, opens in new tab/window)

I have marked the Moon Cycle along the top of the graph, different shades in the markers for each type, Perigee(close), Apogee (far) , Full, New
M6+ events are marked within the two axis magnitude versus time (redish markers)
Of 73 events so far in 2014;
Only 7 co-inside directly with a cycle point (Pink shaded line connecting the two points)
Only 1 on a Full Moon (1.4%)
Only 1 on a New Moon (1.4%)
2 on Perigee (close in) (2.7%)
3 on Apogee (far away) (4.1%)
of those
1 on New Moon/Perigee (close in)
Between New and Apogee (Green shaded areas) we have 20 events (27%), incl the biggest 8.2 (off Chile)

Between Perigee - Apogee (going away from the Earth) (Grey Shaded areas), 28 events (38%) incl the biggest 8.2

(click image for larger version, opens in new tab/window)

Between Apogee - Perigee (coming in towards Earth) (Blue shaded areas), we have 39 events (53%), but not incl the biggest 8.2

(click image for larger version, opens in new tab/window)

So it seems the chances of a M6+ would be higher either when the Moon is coming in towards Earth or is at its most distant.
And the chances of a M6 falling NOT directly on one of the Perigee, Apogee, Full, New is 90.4%
Thats just 2014 though, might be different other years, might be worth a look.

www.fourmilab.ch...

The earthquakes just SE of Wrightwood, CA, on the southern section of the San Andreas fault, have my eyebrow raised.

Courtesy of the USGS

The action began earlier today with this magnitude 3.5, located almost 13 kms down.
If you look at the focal mechanism, the most likely solution is the nodal plane striking 293° with a 62° dip.

The SAF from the "big bend" southward, has a configuration similar to an airplane propeller.

"It dips to the southwest south of Bakersfield, goes up to vertical through the northern San Gabriel Mountains, then flips over to dip northeast from San Bernardino all the way down to the Salton Sea."

Livescience article, 2012

This sequence of quakes looks to be centered near where the SAF changes from vertical to NE dipping, just SE of the "LARSE I" location on the image above.

I hope the most recent mag 2.5 @ 20:31 UTC is the end of the shaking...small, but in a spot with a lot of built up stress.

M6.4 - South Indian Ocean 2014-06-14 11:11:00 UTC

Location

10.056°S 91.056°E depth=7.1km (4.4mi)
Nearby Cities

671km (417mi) WNW of West Island, Cocos Islands
1418km (881mi) WSW of Bengkulu, Indonesia
1439km (894mi) SW of Padang, Indonesia
1442km (896mi) SW of Sungaipenuh, Indonesia
671km (417mi) WNW of West Island, Cocos Islands

earthquake.usgs.gov...

A Good Morning shake up to help people wake up!

c(_)

*sip*

a reply to: The Coffee Monster

A Good Morning shake up to help people wake up!

Or afternoon (just) in my part of the world.

The spell is broken - that was a fairly long run of no mag 6 and it is getting heavily overdue for a mag 7 now. Somehow I don't think it would be reasonable to blame this one on the full moon.

Magnitude 6.2 off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra Sunday, May 18, 2014 @ 01:02:29 UTC has been DOWNGRADED to a mag 6.0

earthquake.usgs.gov...

a reply to: Olivine

Great work. Thx.

Fascinating.

Any implications discussed?

Any other similarly twisted faults known?

Seems to me that the Salton Sea end is destined to end up flooded big time at some point.

M 6.4 - South Indian Ocean


Time
2014-06-14 06:11:00 UTC-05:00
Location
10.056°S 91.056°E
Depth
7.1km

USGS

a reply to: PuterMan

Somehow I don't think it would be reasonable to blame this one on the full moon.

No, but it falls in the between the Apogee - Perigee phase points (coming in towards Earth) by one day and based on 2013 data there was a 49% chance of this occurring ............ somewhere.
I'm just doing loading the 2013 graphs now

further to post by: muzzy

Thats just 2014 though, might be different other years, might be worth a look.

Lets have a look at 2013, again I have marked the Moon Cycle along the top of the graph, different shades in the markers for each type, Perigee(close), Apogee (far) , Full, New
M6+ events are marked within the two axis magnitude versus time (reddish markers)
2013 had 175 events of M6>
5 on Apogee (2.9%)
3 on Perigee (1.7%)
2 onNew (1.1%)
4 on Full (2.3%)
That leaves 161 NOT directly on one of the phase ponts, or (92%)

Between Perigee - Apogee (going away from the Earth) (Grey Shaded areas), 51 events (29.1%) incl. the 8.0, but not incl the biggest 8.3

(click image for larger version, opens in new tab/window)

Between Apogee - Perigee (coming in towards Earth) (Blue shaded areas), we have 86 events (49.1%), incl the 8.0 and the 8.3

(click image for larger version, opens in new tab/window)
here is a table showing the calculations all together


Is 49% enough to make predictions on though?
I don't think so,
all we can say there is a bigger chance (49%) of a M6+ when the Moon is coming in towards the Earth than when it is moving away (29%).
Although this may vary year to year ......... 2014 (half time) was 53.4% vs 38.4%
need to check another year or 2 ...............

Swarm in RotoVegas city (Rotorua, NZ) on Friday night

goo.gl...
nothing big but a friend of ours who just moved up there said they felt them.

fairly shallow 7-24km, geyser and mud pool country
NZST - MAG - DEPTH
13/06/2014 18:57:22 - M2.34 - 9.51km
13/06/2014 19:11:39 - M2.14 - 8.46km
13/06/2014 19:14:05 - M1.63 - 7.99km
13/06/2014 19:20:34 - M2.21 - 12.38km
13/06/2014 19:25:23 - M2.79 - 9.72km
13/06/2014 19:29:41 - M1.92 - 9.86km
13/06/2014 19:32:37 - M1.98 - 24.22km
13/06/2014 19:33:46 - M1.96 - 10.92km
13/06/2014 19:35:32 - M1.33 - 7.23km
13/06/2014 19:37:40 - M1.49 - 8.57km
13/06/2014 19:38:26 - M2.29 - 9.22km
13/06/2014 19:40:25 - M2.41 - 9.54km
13/06/2014 19:42:16 - M2.03 - 9.45km
13/06/2014 19:45:14 - M1.56 - 7.52km
13/06/2014 19:55:47 - M1.58 - 9.57km
13/06/2014 19:56:56 - M2.76 - 9.51km
13/06/2014 20:02:53 - M1.37 - 21.52km
13/06/2014 20:07:07 - M1.59 - 8.81km
13/06/2014 20:20:56 - M1.60 - 9.10km
13/06/2014 20:23:08 - M2.29 - 9.95km
13/06/2014 20:28:54 - M1.48 - 13.79km
13/06/2014 20:31:04 - M1.45 - 8.22km
13/06/2014 20:39:09 - M2.06 - 13.67km
13/06/2014 21:06:38 - M1.82 - 9.34km
13/06/2014 21:55:35 - M1.59 - 11.68km

Hanamaki, Iwate Prefecture, Japan 6.0ML(5.5Mw) aftershocks map
not many, 24 so far, largest 3.4ML
Prelinimary Data from NIED

a reply to: muzzy

Once again a great piece of work Muzzy and continuing proof that the incidence of earthquakes is NOT statistically connected to the phases of the Moon or it's proximity to Earth.

This despite the fact that the Moon has such an effect on the planet in terms of volumes of water heaped up and even volumes of rock moved daily by as much as 55mm. It is, as always, a fascinating subject and a major part of the hunt for the Grail of Earthquakes - "The Accurate Prediction"

Forgot to add by the way:

Is 49% enough to make predictions on though?

It is not actually 49% because that covers the full period of travel from apogee to perigee, against the on day of apogee or perigee so in order to give a true figure the value would have to be weighted. In terms of calendar months your 49 percent relates to ~14 days so whilst you can't treat percentages like this at best on any one day there is 49/14% or a 3.5% chance of a mag 6.

When you compare that to the percentages for apogee and perigee and the full and new moons there is so small a difference that it is not in my opinion statistically significant except to say that what this probably proves is that the moon affects earthquakes not at all or all the time in roughly equal proportion.

In addition the full moon cycle is about 14 lunations but the period of apogee and perigee is about 2 days less than a lunar month and the whole shebang had a nine year cycle blah blah blah etc which means that you would have to look at at least 30 years to get any pattern emerging.


PPS I look forward to the 30 year report when you have rainy afternoon this winter!

I an linking your original post to my geophysical report this week.

a reply to: muzzy

2013 had 175 events of M6

From whence comes this figure my muzzy friend. ANSS reports 139 for 2013. Now I know that may not be everything reported but the graphs are comparing to ANSS are they not??