A Left-Wing Comeback in Mexico's Presidential Elections?

A Left-Wing Comeback in Mexico's Presidential Elections?

www.thenation.com

In an unexpected turn of events, the eruption of a new youth movement has transformed the prospects for Mexico’s July 1 presidential elections. A month ago, the candidate from the old authoritarian Party of the Institutional Revolution (PRI), Enrique Peña Nieto, seemed poised to win easily by a two-digit margin and bring back the ways of the past. But after weeks of student protests against the imposition of Peña Nieto by the dominant television duopoly, as well as a series of corruption scandals that implicate the PRI, leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador has come back within striking distance.

(visit the link for the full news article)

Andrés Manuel López Obrador was the PRD candidate and former mayor of Mexico City who lost to Felipe Calderón in the past national election in so close a race the final vote tally delayed selection more than a month.

In 2006 he scared many moderate voters by directly taking on the powers that be and refusing to accept the official results. Now he has proposed a government of national unity based on principles of “love.” He has not taken up the class-based discourse and statist development policies typical of other Latin American leftist leaders and has publicly stated that “to be on the left today in Mexico is only to be honest and ethical.”

There is a lot at stake in this coming election with the people's dire hopes they will see both less turbulent and more prosperous times. With the encouragement of this student movement Mexico looks to the Left to López Obrador in the hope that he could become the equivalent of Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, who successfully jump-started economic development in Brazil from the left.

Mexico is today more violent, more corrupt and more unequal than it was in the year 2000, when the PRI was pushed out after over seventy years of one-party rule. The twelve years of government by the right-wing Party of National Action (PAN) has only put a new gloss on the same old authoritarian ways of conducting politics.

The bitter failure of the drug war, which has led to more than 60,000 violent deaths over the past five years, is only the most glaring example of the profound institutional weakness of the state, which was inherited from the PRI and has been aggravated by the PAN.

The PAN administrations have also taken the dangerous move of breaking with Mexico’s long tradition of separation between church and state as well as with the post-revolutionary military-civilian pact. Fox first laid out the welcome mat for the church hierarchy by giving priests an unprecedented public voice. He famously bowed before Pope John Paul II and kissed his ring during the Pope’s visit to Mexico City in 2002, demonstrating subordination of the Mexican state to a foreign authority.

Calderón has also opened the door to the military. Mexico historically has stood out for the discipline of its armed forces in a region where violent coups and civil wars have been the norm. After 1946 the PRI successfully kept the military isolated from politics. But this is changing quickly today, as Calderón has empowered the generals politically through his desperate “war on drugs.”

This year PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota, the first woman to run for president of Mexico on a major-party ticket, has polls showing her chances of election are doomed likely by the multiple difficulties of the last twelve years of PAN governments. The Mexican people are looking to brighter future than what they expect either a continuation of the PAN government or a return to the long-held control of the PRI administrations over more than half of the 20th century. The "YouSoy132" student movement has helped cause a shift in public attention once again to Andrés Manuel López Obrador and the PRD party in their hopes for a new direction into the future.

Independently of one’s political views or preferences, and despite López Obrador’s overly bland rhetoric, a victory for the left would bring a much-needed sea change to Mexican politics and renew hope in the future of democracy. In contrast, a victory for Peña Nieto would be cause for alarm. The central question is whether there will be an extension of the rule by the same elites who have dictated Mexican politics since the 1940s, or whether the opposition will finally have the opportunity to try its hand at governing.

www.thenation.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

reply to post by Erongaricuaro


I really feel for the folks in Mexico, I just can't come to grips on how a friend and neighboring nation to the US could be in these desperate times. If there is anyplace that the US should be allocating resources, it's to help Mexico regain control of it's country.

What do you think it would honestly take, to turn the tide and take back Mexico from the terrors that they face daily?

reply to post by Erongaricuaro


Yay. Go Obrador. He would've won last time except for rampant vote fraud and the Supreme Court coming down on the side of Calderon.

Originally posted by JacKatMtn
reply to post by Erongaricuaro

 

What do you think it would honestly take, to turn the tide and take back Mexico from the terrors that they face daily?

I honestly could not begin to predict who or what is going to best suit the Mexican people, nor that as a resident alien in Mexico I am forbidden to involve myself in their partisan politics so must be cautious of offering opinions about this election. Therefore I can really only offer this take from a major published source. So please don't fault me much for not expressing more personal views.

I post this because I am delighted to see another major candidate able to present a challenge to the candidate who has been presumed the shoe-in for most of this cycle. It does please me there is once again a choice to be made by the voters. PRD candidate López had been a very popular choice in the past election but his and his supporters' challenge to the official outcome of the 2006 elections caused him to lose popularity in the view of many moderate voters. How good his chances are now or how he would fare as President are in the hands of the Mexican people and remain to be seen. At least the people now have at least two strong and viable alternatives.

Personally, I believe it would be in Mexico's best interest to continue their economic climb and to stand in cooperation with, but without the aid or direction/misdirection from, other foreign nations. I expect to see Mexico continue advance on the order of Brazil as another one of the world's new rising economic powerhouses. They are hard-working and industrious people who deserve the best of what the world has to offer.

reply to post by Erongaricuaro


Thanks for the honesty, and thanks for respecting your host nation's desire to handle their own politics.

I certainly join you in the glimmer of hope that seems to be rising in this year's elections.

May the true voice of the folks be heard..

I hope for the same back home in the US as well this November..

Hi,

I am just wanting to contribute to the discussion saying that I am a seer, that in the past have proven to be very accurate in political predictions, and I cannot see the big landslide victory that many polls are saying Mexico is going to experience this July 1st 2012.

if you want to read my thread pls check it at:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Thanks,

The Angel of Lightness

Today, 1 July 2012, is election day in Mexico. This could be the most important election day in many years as the party who ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century continuously for over 70 years has been looking well-poised to recapture the presidency, but now in recent weeks experienced a resurgence in a popular and well-liked competitor.

The PAN party of which the past two presidents belonged does not have a strong entry this cycle in large part due to what many consider an enormous failure of the Drug War strategy which created a years-long wave of violence and over 60,000 deaths as a result along with an unholy alliance with Mexico's military to assist in these efforts. This overshadows a 12-year long series of improvements in Mexico's infrastructure which includes many new highways built that have streamlined travel within the country which should have boosted tourism but has instead made Mexico appear too dangerous to travel in.

The PRI party candidate has looked like the heir-apparent to regain the executive seat and resume their leadership role of the 20th century but in large part due to a student and popular movement the PRD party now appears to be within reach of winning today after having just barely missed selection in 2006's very close vote. All neighbors I have spoken to today claim they intend to cast ballot for PRD's candidate today. Their apathy has turned to enthusiasm as PRD party regains its former popularity and standing. We shall see how this goes.

The 2006 elections with PRD's same candidate as in this year's race the popular candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) was not considered the United States' favorite pick and in an election announcement that was delayed more than a month after election day many suspect deals were made to swing the election to Felipe Calderón with a promise for him to elevate the drug war, which now has had disasterous consequences for Mexico and created new avenues for corruption and leaving the PAN party without a viable candidate that could expect a chance to win today. AMLO is once again who many are looking to with great hope to take Mexico into a brighter future.

This election in the view of many represents a journey into the future or a swing back into Mexico's past. Mexico could be poised to become a new power-player in the global economy if it selects the right leadership to guide the way.

The voting is over and a preliminary count indicates a return to Mexico's long-time ruling party. The outgoing PAN party's candidate captured about one-quarter of the votes reflecting an overall disappointment with their 12-year rule, a massive wave of violence and a sluggish economy in the wake. PRD fared much better than polls had predicted but could not quite close the gap. Expectations about what lies ahead for Mexico are mixed.

Although the winner of the election has not been officially announced yet the preliminary count indicates PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto will win with a 6%-point margin over PRD's López Obrador. This is an ample margin, much wider than the 2006 election results, so there should be no contest over the count.

Although there have been a couple irregularities noted in Peña Nieto's campaign which will be examined and perhaps adjusted for if need be it looks like Mexico is once again in the hands of the party that held rule continuously for 71 years from 1939 to 2000. This result has been predicted throughout the election cycle though by a much wider margin. Understandably there are mixed reactions to the news of the return of PRI:

www.latimes.com...

Cesar Santiago, wearing a red hard hat adorned with a PRI sticker, said a Peña Nieto win would bring improvements to the country's lethargic economy and reduce violence. "It was a failure," Santiago said of the drug war. "It should have been better planned, with a better strategy."

Santiago said the PRI had changed since last time it ruled, a reign infamous for corruption and, occasionally, strong-arm tactics to maintain its almost complete dominance over Mexican life. "The PRI-istas who are there now are young. They really want Mexico to improve."

But a few rows away were signs of the old, coercive PRI. Four young women sat gripping rolled-up PRI flags. They said they were required by bosses at Pemex to attend the PRI party. "If we don't come, we don't go back to work," said one of the women, who declined to give her name to avoid being punished by the company. She said she voted for Lopez Obrador.

"It's like the '60s," she said, referring to coercive PRI tactics of the past. "It hasn't gone away."

reply to post by Erongaricuaro


rule continuously for 71 years from 1939 to 2000.
will the Catholic Church be back?

ie,,1939-60's.?

Originally posted by BobAthome
reply to post by Erongaricuaro

 

rule continuously for 71 years from 1939 to 2000.
will the Catholic Church be back?

ie,,1939-60's.?

A better question may be, "Is it going away again?"

The Catholic Church has been a long-time tradition in the culture since the Spanish Conquest. However it has not always been welcomed in Mexican government. Indeed, you bring up a topic that many may find surprising in regards to Mexican life and politics:

en.wikipedia.org...

For most of the country's nearly 300 years as a Spanish colony, the Catholic Church involved itself heavily in politics. In the early national period, the Church's vast wealth and political influence spurred a powerful anti-clerical movement, which found political expression in the Liberal party. The Catholic Church supported rebel Conservatives in the mid-19th century and later welcomed the country's occupation by a French army. Robert Haberman of the Mexican Labour Party writes:

"By the year 1854, The Church gained possession of about two-thirds of all the lands of Mexico, almost every bank, and every large business. The rest of the country was mortgaged to the Church. Then came the revolution of 1854, led by Benito Juárez. It culminated in the Constitution of 1857, which secularised the schools and confiscated Church property. All the churches were nationalised, many of them were turned into schools, hospitals, and orphan asylums. Civil marriages were obligatory. Pope Pius IX immediately issued a mandate against the Constitution and called upon all Catholics of Mexico to disobey it. Ever since then, the clergy has been fighting to regain its lost temporal power and wealth."

Turn of the 19th to 20th century collaboration with Porfirio Diaz earned the Church the enmity of the victors in the Mexican Revolution. Consequently, severe restrictions on the Church were written into the country's present constitution, the Constitution of 1917.

The 1917 Constitution outlawed teaching by clergy even in private schools, gave control over Church matters to the state, put all Church property at the disposal of the state, outlawed religious orders, outlawed foreign born priests, gave states the power to limit or eliminate priests in their territory, deprived priests of the civil rights to vote or hold office, prohibited Catholic organizations which advocated public policy, prohibited religious publications from commenting on public policy, prohibited clergy from religious celebrations and from wearing clerical garb outside of a church and deprived citizens of the right to a trial for violations of these provisions.

The Federal Government's attempt to enforce the restrictions of the 1917 Constitution in the 1920s led to violent repression and an open revolt by Catholic peasants in the Cristero Rebellion (1926–29). Tensions between the Church and the State eased after 1940, but constitutional restrictions were maintained even as enforcement became progressively lax over the ensuing decades.

From 1940 to 1960 about 70% of Mexican Catholics attended church weekly while in 1982 only 54 percent partook of Mass once a week or more, and 21 percent claimed monthly attendance. Recent surveys have shown that only around 3% of Catholics attend church daily, however 47% percent of them attend church services weekly and, according to INEGI, the number of atheists grows annually by 5.2%, while the number of Catholics grows by 1.7%.

When Vicente Fox took power in 2000 many people feared the secularism in the country would be damaged as it was the first time in decades that Mexico had an avowedly Catholic president.

(bold emphasis added)

If you are interested in this topic there is plenty of reading to be found. It is not as clear-cut as it may appear on the surface. I just posted a long quote but chopped it down in an attempt to be as brief as possible.

I know little about Mexico either than ancient history and what I get on ATS. I'm not sure what divisions there are in Mex. here they are provinces, not states. I have read here that there are actually 2 different aspects to Mex. The south is beautiful and peaceful. The north controlled by the drug trade. Is this in error? Secondly, if this is correct do you think the rest of the country and a new government could challenge the drug people?

reply to post by intrepid


government could challenge the drug people?

no one challenges the drug people,,but they do negotiate.
Make Hemp,,Marijuana Legal, as a crop and a legally obtainainable, drug,
it wasnt prohabition that cured alcoholism,,,,,it was temperance.

and a lot of pissed off women.

reply to post by Erongaricuaro


There was a lot of Missionary work that was done during the Mex/U.S disagreement,,ie around the time of the Alamo.
Funny how time really does not change but for the players.

Originally posted by intrepid
I know little about Mexico either than ancient history and what I get on ATS. I'm not sure what divisions there are in Mex. here they are provinces, not states. I have read here that there are actually 2 different aspects to Mex. The south is beautiful and peaceful. The north controlled by the drug trade. Is this in error? Secondly, if this is correct do you think the rest of the country and a new government could challenge the drug people?

Mexico has 31 states plus a Federal District. Mexico City is largely located in the Federal District but parts of it are located within the State of Mexico whose capital is Toluca. The Federal District is not entirely Mexico City either and there are some smaller towns within the Federal District. Mexico is a popular nickname for the country whose proper name is Estados Unidos Mexicanos in much the same way as its northern neighbor in the local language would be Estados Unidos Americanos.

The northern part of the country is largely made up of the Sonoran Desert whereas the southern areas might largely be considered jungle. I live in the central highlands in the city of Morelia, capital of the State of Michoacán de Ocampo. While our city occupies the Guayangareo Valley it is at an altitude of around 6300 feet it is surrounded by pine forests tapering off into plains areas and is largely an agricultural state. Among other crops grown here it is largely popular for avocados (City of Uruapan known as the avocado capital of the world), strawberries, melons, watermelons, potatoes, bananas, and mangos.

I have lived in the high desert of California and in Las Vegas, Nevada so know the beauty and diversity of the desert but by many standards forests and jungles are considered prettier than desert. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I am convinced though that the Spaniards latched onto the prime real estate when coming to the Americas. My city has spring-like weather year-around and although has cold and hot snaps at times almost no one has either air conditioning nor central heating. We do like to make biscuits and breakfast pizza on many winter mornings though, any excuse to fire up the oven.

The worst of the Drug War violence has been experienced in the border areas of the north though outbreaks have been known to happen throughout the country, and likewise there is some drug activity throughout the entire country. This really has only been troublesome during this past presidential administration when violence has skyrocketed as Felipe Calderón has pursued an all-out war on drugs. It is commonly speculated that Calderón made a deal with the devil, so to speak, in order to swing an election to his favor that was too close to call and perhaps had to promise to pursue that crackdown that has led to many uprisings. He has stated his regrets a number of times.

Here we begin to tread into areas that many would rather leave untrodden and dangerous as an ATS member to tred, however it is a subject that hits close to home. The Drug War has never been about stopping drug traffic but rather controlling drug traffic. A new government could certainly challenge "the drug people" but their identity is misleading by design. The closest parallel I could draw would be the invasion of Afghanistan to drive out the Taliban government who had put a stop to poppy growing so that those fields could again flourish and are guarded by allied troops. So lucrative is the global illicit drug trade and its value as an undocumented revenue so recognized by "elite" powers that one is damned if they do and damned if they don't. It is beyond the Mexican government to wage an effective "war" at this time due to foreign "advisors" that are now involved. I believe this is part of the regret Calderón has lamented for entering into this arrangement to take part in this convoluted conflict.

Gee, I wish I could go further but whole conflict is corrupt convoluted in the extreme. Mexico is a very beautiful country with some of the most gorgeous beaches anywhere in the world. Its indigenous people were not wiped out nor put aside on reservations but absorbed and morphed into the society and their cultural traditions are celebated colorfully around the calendar, many of them masked or compromised to fit with the demands and expectations of the Spaniards. Be it known, though, that the Spaniards and other foreigners who have settled here have absorbed and been changed by that culture as well. As a native American born in the USA who has come to this land to live I can tell you I have been changed by this experience, all for th better.

I look forward to this next six years with our new Presidente Enrique Peña Nieto. ¡Viva México!

Originally posted by BobAthome
reply to post by intrepid

 

government could challenge the drug people?

Does Government, any government, challenge the Federal Reserve or the IMF? I believe the question being asked here is, can government challenge an entity that supersedes the power of any government? We fight wars for them. We make up excuses to fight a war and sell it to the citizenry. We make war so they can make money. It is as simple as that; be it a turf war, holy war, drug war, or what have you.

reply to post by Erongaricuaro


there is always a door,, that i do believe,, just dont see it yet,,
although with the fast&furious thing,,war against arming the drug cartels might be over.
its a start.

reply to post by BobAthome


My fear is that Mexico is beyond being saved from being a Narco-State. I hope that I'm proven wrong. Mexico still is blessed with many resources, and as said here, and hard-working, industrious population. They deserve to live in peace and prosperity.

reply to post by Zhenyghi

Narco-State,,ya but does that one STATE, in theFEDERATION OF MEXICAN States,,have too be on the freeking border????????????
, ya everyone knows it goes on,,

going too America for a check/cash,,etc,,is the same as going to B.C for work for a Canadian.
trafficing people across the border is slavery, always has been,,always will be,,
drugs trafficking across the border?,,,what happened too, planes in Kansas ,,only because its flat,,,
hey it was quiet and built the drug empire,but no its ak47 shoot outs and beheadings,,bad for business,,and the people of MEXICO.
its a lose /lose propposition.

Originally posted by Zhenyghi

 

My fear is that Mexico is beyond being saved from being a Narco-State. I hope that I'm proven wrong. Mexico still is blessed with many resources, and as said here, and hard-working, industrious population. They deserve to live in peace and prosperity.

If you do not understand what this Drug War is all about don't feel alone, it is not intended that people understand it for what it is but for what it is purported to be by the media and by its perpetrators. I don't think Felipe Calderón was wise to the scam either but I believe he has a much better idea about it now, much to the chagrin of his PAN party which has fallen from grace because of it.

The old PRI administrations probably understood the game as well as anyone and didn't let foreign Drug War advisors get a foot in the door, aside from accepting a few free helicopters and some armament and promising to play their game. That was easy, throw out a bunch of hemp seeds then go looking for the plants a few months later with the new choppers. Find a field of hemp plants, send the army out with news reporters in tow to pull up the plants and burn them, then declare it as a victory in the war on drugs plastered all over the newspapers and video on the morning news. They could make a few other arrests against people who would not play the game to their satisfaction and everyone is happy. The crackdowns keep the prices high and all the players profit big.

As far as Mexico being a "Narco-State" it will be whatever "they" want it to be. The best thing Mexico can do is get all the foreign interests out of their territory and not let them back in, though past administration has let them get a foothold that it might take a tough PRI leadership to get rid of. Who is "they" you may ask? Who are the secret members of the Federal Reserve? You're not supposed to know. It's a big secret and nobody is supposed to know their names, it's just that I would not be in the least bit surprised if the names of the Federal Reserve board were disclosed that some of them or their close family would not also be part of the "they" that are behind the big deals and profiting from the global illicit drug trade.

These "they" are likely part of the same family and circle of wheeler-dealers that have been in this racket since the East India Trading Company was smuggling opium into China centuries ago along with a few newer upstarts that played the game very well and got on the inside, or at least found positions of power in the public game of government and foreign affairs. It's OK to go after Mexican "kingpins", it's all part of the strategy of killing several birds with the same stone. You saw how Fast and Furious gun-running to cartel members was supposed to help kill the US 2nd Amendment. If that didn't work well enough it at least painted Mexico in a bad light and might b an excuse to invade, for our own good of course, and hand our government back to us on a silver platter after dipping into those resources you mention and slathering on the gravy. Oh the games people play.

We really do deserve to live in peace. I expect prosperity will follow. I hope our newly elected leader will be a bit more savvy. At least he got elected on his own accord. ¡Viva México!