Volcano Watch 2012 !

A new study, Time dependent changes in volcanic inflation rate near Three Sisters, Oregon, revealed by InSAR, offers a clear look at an intriguing and ongoing episode of activity during the last 15 years.

Source

Injection of about 100,000,000 cubic meters of magma would explain it

That is not insubstantial! I have to wonder if they have that right as that is VEI 4 so they are saying a VEI 4 has crept up on them unnoticed over the last 15 years. If that came to the surface there would be hell to pay!

Eyjafjallajökull was a VEI 4, just to remind you.

reply to post by Olivine


Nice little list on the Cascades page

High to Very High Threat Potential 1
Crater Lake
Glacier Peak
Mount Adams
Mount Baker
Mount Hood
Mount Rainier
Mount St. Helens
Newberry
South Sister

All our favourites in one list!!

reply to post by angelchemuel


Hope the following is also very,very,useful;

www.wired.com...-96351

reply to post by steaming


May I ask why you have said this link is "very, very useful" when I posted it in the first place?



Rainbows
Jane

Icelandic volcano Katla could be near to eruption. It was very active during last summer/fall, then activity dropped dramatically. That means new lava found its way to chamber and it was slowly filling up. Now activity has started again, scary thing is that this volcano is already in harmonics phase. Looks like lava is already coming up, that causes small tremors in distinct time interval.

hraun.vedur.is...

reply to post by Thebel

It was very active during last summer/fall, then activity dropped dramatically.

The summer one was I believe a small sub-glacial eruption, and activity dropped sharply after that event. As to the rest it is as it does every late summer and autumn as the colder weather increases the ice cap and the resulting pressure. Then in spring and early summer if starts again as the ice cap melts a bit and the weight is relieved.

scary thing is that this volcano is already in harmonics phase

Really? I don't see anything much on the plot you linked to. Perhaps you could define 'harmonics phase' and point out where you see that. Do you mean that there is harmonic tremor visible. Are you sure this is not volcanic tremor? There is a difference. Not all eruptions exhibit harmonic tremor by any means.

There are just 18 quakes on the current list. I have seen that with way over 100 on it before.

Earthquake tableDate Time Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude Quality Location
Thursday
01.03.2012 06:17:58 63.647 -19.233 1.1 km 2.0 43.59 1.1 km NE of Goðabunga
Thursday
01.03.2012 03:40:14 63.596 -19.294 4.0 km 1.9 32.4 5.3 km SSW of Goðabunga
Wednesday
29.02.2012 14:07:12 63.658 -19.330 0.1 km 1.2 99.0 4.4 km WNW of Goðabunga
Wednesday
29.02.2012 08:46:49 63.660 -19.147 0.4 km 0.7 99.0 5.6 km ENE of Goðabunga
Wednesday
29.02.2012 07:49:32 63.646 -19.146 0.1 km 1.6 99.0 5.2 km E of Goðabunga
Wednesday
29.02.2012 07:46:54 63.648 -19.149 1.3 km 1.7 99.0 5.1 km E of Goðabunga
Wednesday
29.02.2012 07:42:32 63.660 -19.148 1.3 km 0.9 99.0 5.5 km ENE of Goðabunga
Wednesday
29.02.2012 07:41:19 63.710 -19.267 18.0 km 0.9 99.0 7.9 km N of Goðabunga
Wednesday
29.02.2012 03:43:32 63.555 -19.115 0.1 km 0.3 99.0 2.9 km SSW of Hábunga
Tuesday
28.02.2012 18:25:11 63.639 -19.290 6.0 km 0.9 99.0 2.0 km W of Goðabunga
Tuesday
28.02.2012 16:59:19 63.631 -19.164 1.7 km 2.3 99.0 4.4 km ESE of Goðabunga
Tuesday
28.02.2012 14:59:16 63.896 -19.222 0.1 km 0.7 99.0 4.1 km N of Álftavatn
Tuesday
28.02.2012 11:29:11 63.625 -19.204 2.4 km 0.8 99.0 2.8 km SE of Goðabunga
Tuesday
28.02.2012 11:29:10 63.691 -19.124 6.1 km 0.3 35.63 8.4 km NE of Goðabunga
Tuesday
28.02.2012 11:28:05 63.624 -19.198 0.5 km 0.4 99.0 3.1 km SE of Goðabunga
Tuesday
28.02.2012 11:00:54 63.629 -19.203 2.9 km 0.8 99.0 2.6 km ESE of Goðabunga
Tuesday
28.02.2012 11:00:05 63.628 -19.205 2.1 km 1.1 99.0 2.6 km ESE of Goðabunga
Tuesday
28.02.2012 10:58:28 63.625 -19.208 2.5 km 1.8 99.0 2.7 km SE of Goðabunga
Total earthquakes: 18

Source

As Jon Frimann puts it:

But it is also important not to overlay broad interpret the data in the favor of an eruption taking place. As it is impossible to know for sure when Katla volcano erupts, and then how big. All we might get is an new small eruption like in July 2011. As Katla volcano can also have small eruptions like big ones.

If you read his article you will see that it is not easy due to wind to interpret 'harmonic' tremor (I believe he also misuses this term like so many do).

We are having strong winds here in Ireland and if we are having weather Iceland probably is as well as we seem to share our weather with them, although we give them the best (worst) of it.

Strong gale (more than 20 m/s) is expected in the west side of Iceland tonight and until late tomorrow evening.

en.vedur.is...

Expect more tremors on the plots!

I would just say that possibly like you I have a vested interest in keeping an eye on Iceland as ash fallout from a really big eruption would probably affect me being only 800 miles away. I am also confident that the Icelandic Met Office takes it's volcano watching seriously and I am very sure that they would issue appropriate warnings if they felt something was happening or about to happen.

There's nothing going on at Katla at the moment.

No harmonic tremor
No volcanic tremor

Nothing, nada.

And the seismic activity around there is just normal, so not even a 3+ quake to get me "excited".

Not sure if this has been up yet, but I'd like to know what you guys think? This is like fracking central.
Apologies if it's a repeat.

nantai volcano

active.

Me.

reply to post by Aircooled


Could you please explain this for the people like myself trying to learn this stuff? I can't for the life of me figure out what that is supposed to be. I really had no idea that there was a volcano on the New Madrid.

Any explanation would be greatly appreciated. If there is sound to this video I am not hearing it.

reply to post by Aircooled


I think Dutchsinse did a little blip on the matter a day or two ago.....Man alive, that looks like pretty good evidence that something may be going on at those DORMANT or EXTINCT volcanoes.

My opinion is(way uneducated)that once she blows once, she can always blow again.

Hello ATS Volcano Watchers!

I ran across this report, and I was hoping perhaps some of you could help me out and give me some perspective on whether this is as newsworthy as it appears to a volcano noob.

Tuesday, 06 March, 2012 at 04:02 (04:02 AM) UTC
n Kamchatka, in the Russian Far East, the Unnamed Volcano has been assigned the highest aviation danger code of "red." The ash and gases that are being spewed from the crater can seriously damage aircraft systems. The volcano is also showing high seismic activity and signs that it may possibly erupt. On average the Unnamed Volcano emits ash and gases 1-2 times a year. Previously the most powerful emissions were in 1956.

hisz.rsoe.hu...

If I remember correctly, the RSOE site is not considered as a "most reliable" source, so I did check the USGS report. To my (untrained) eye, this appeared to be the same volcano listed as Bezymianny , which listed KVERT (Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team) as the source for their information. Since the latest update on the USGS site that I could find is dated 22 February-28 February 2012, showing Bezymianny as an aviation yellow alert, I took a look at the KVERT site and found this:

Volcanic Activity Summary: Activity of the volcano continuously increases. Seismic activity began to grow on February 12 and increases till now: about 7-19 weak seismic events were registering each day till February 29; about 25-40 weak seismic events and episodes volcanic tremor were recorded each day on March 01-05. Probably an extrude of lava blocks at the top of the dome occur, that prepares a strong explosive eruption of the volcano. According to satellite data, a size and a brightness of a thermal anomaly abrupt increased on March 02. Density clouds obscured the volcano on March 02-05.

KVERT Status Alert 3/5/12

Bezymianny Profile Info

USGS Report 22 February-28 February 2012

Any perspective you experienced volcano watchers can give me is much appreciated! And for anyone who wants to take a webcam peek, here is a link I found which purports to be a webcam of the volcano in question - however I couldn't confirm that it is working at the time of posting due to the nighttime hour.

Bezymianny Webcam

reply to post by Open2Truth


The cam link I have is slightly different to your but appears to be working OK

data.emsd.iks.ru...

It does not seem to be doing much!!

The last report I have is:

KVERT reported high levels of seismic activity at Bezymianny during 17-24 February and a thermal anomaly that was detected daily in satellite images. Two short volcanic tremor episodes were reported on 15 and 22 February. Gas-and-steam plumes, observed in satellite images, drifted NE on 20 and 22 February. The Aviation Color Code remained at Orange.
Source: Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT)

ETA: Looks like the same one you have.

From your link:

Geologic Summary. Prior to its noted 1955-56 eruption, Bezymianny volcano had been considered extinct. Three periods of intensified activity have occurred during the past 3,000 years. The latest period, which was preceded by a 1,000-year quiescence, began with the dramatic 1955-56 eruption. That eruption, similar to the 1980 event at Mount St. Helens, produced a large horseshoe-shaped crater that was formed by collapse of the summit and an associated lateral blast. Subsequent episodic but ongoing lava-dome growth, accompanied by intermittent explosive activity and pyroclastic flows, has largely filled the 1956 crater.

Maybe RSOE are getting a little excited? Sounds as if this is the one they are talking about but I see no red alert.

reply to post by PuterMan


Thank you so much for the info. One follow up question. In looking at the USGS info for this volcano, it said the info was supplied by KVERT. So then going to the KVERT link, I found the information about the red alert in an update dated 3/6/12.

www.kscnet.ru...

So I'm assuming then that maybe the USGS reviews the info, but may not agree and therefore the discrepancy?

I really appreciate your patience with helping me understand.

reply to post by Open2Truth


yup

"The remote Bezymianny volcano in Kamchatka might be close to an eruption, as its seismic activity is continuously increasing, the Russian Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (KVERT) reported yesterday. Strong ash explosions up to 42,640 ft (13 km) a.s.l. are possible at any time. Ongoing activity could affect international and low-flying aircraft.Seismic activity began to increase on February 12, when about 7-19 weak seismic events were registered each day until 29 Feb. During 1-5 March, this number increased to about 25-43 weak seismic events and episodes of volcanic tremor. KVERT warns that the activity might signal a buildup towards a larger eruption. According to satellite data, both size and brightness of a thermal anomaly (a growing lava dome) at the summit abruptly increased on 2 March and continues to increase."

best volcano predictor is Tsaur over on Etna Thread,,has best record,,,

Me.

reply to post by Open2Truth


From KVERT

Probably there is a preparation of a strong explosive eruption of the volcano. According to satellite data, a size and a brightness of a thermal anomaly abrupt increased on March 02, and continues to increase.

Volcanic cloud height: No ash cloud produced at present.

Other volcanic cloud information: No ash cloud produced at present.

NO ASH CLOUD and yet I have seen blogs with pictures of a massive eruption. Look at the web can link I gave. No eruption yet.

AVO have a repeat of the KVERT pages

www.avo.alaska.edu...

At the end of the day it has been doing this since 1955 so it is no great shakes unless something radically different happens.

This from John Seach's Volcano News at Volcanolive.com -

Sunday 11th March 2012
Lamongan Volcano, Indonesia
Lamongan volcano in Indonesia has shown signs of unrest. The normal background seismicity is about 3 volcanic earthquakes per month. Between 23-29 February 2012 there were 69 volcanic earthquakes. Between 1-7 March 2012, 77 volcanic earthquakes were recorded, this increased to 135 earthquakes in 12 hours on 8th March. On 9th March 112 volcanic earthquakes occurred in an 11 hour period and continuous tremor was recorded. On 9th March the alert status for Lamongan volcano was raised from level 1 to level 2 (out of a maximum 4. The last confirmed eruptions of Lamongan volcano were in 1933.
...

Ijen volcano (East Java, Indonesia): eruption warning due to increased seismic and degassing activity Monday Mar 12, 2012 15:45 PM | Age: 13 hrs BY: TOMPFEIFFER The official alert level for Ijen volcano in East Java, Indonesia, has been raised again to 3 ("alert") due to an increase in activity, our Indonesian correspondant Andi reports.

A new 10 m wide gas vent, which erupted buring gasses, was observed on 10 March at 17 m distance from the shore. Thick steaming, larger than usual, forming a thick white column of sulfur steam 200 m high was already noted since 3 March. Measurements of the lake water temperature at 5 m depth had also shown increased values of 42.70 deg C. On 10 March, the lake surface was 2 meters higher than normal, although this could be attributed to heavy recent rain fall.

Another sign of increased activity is that many leaves of trees and other plants around the crater have died recently, suggesting higher than normal SO2 levels.

Seismic activity has been rising as well. Since 22 Feb, a near contiuous tremor signal has been being recorded. In the interval 22-31 Feb, there were 52 harmonic tremor periods lasting up to 20 minutes, as well as 17 2 low-frequency earthquakes, 38 mostly shallow volcanic quakes. This number increased to 306 tremor episodes lasting up to 25 minutes, 27 low frequency, and 125 mostly shallow volcanic earthquakes during the latest observation period between 1-10 March.

source(www.volcanodiscovery.com... ing-activity.html

The volcano has already had over 300 eruptions this year

Sakurajima, Japan (CBS) -- Sakurajima continued its second day of violent eruptions on Tuesday, spewing hot rocks and ash, but there was no major damage in the vicinity, the Japanese Meteorological Agency said. The agency said Monday's powerful eruption was the most forceful since 2009.

The volcano is located in the southern prefecture of Kagoshima.

The Meteorological Agency added that the volcano has been erupting steadily for the last two years, but the eruption on Monday turned violent, throwing 50-centimetre (1 foot 6 inches) rocks nearly 1.2 miles away, the furthest since 2009. In response, the Meteorological agency extended the eruption warning to residents living further away from the mouth of the volcano. The volcano has already had over 300 eruptions this year.

source(www.digtriad.com...

Poas volcano (Costa Rica), activity summary Feb 2012: high-temperature fumarolic activity and sporadic small phreatic explosions

During February, Poás activity consisted in strong high-temperature fumarolic activity and sporadic small phreatic explosions, reported by park rangers.

The latest monthly bulletin of Costa Rica's volcano observatory OBSICORI published a more detailed summary of Poás' activity during February summarized as follows: The ultra-acid crater lake had a greenish-gray color with sporadic convection cells visible in the central part carrying sulfur in suspension.

Lake temperature were measured at 44° C, which is a value significantly lower than those measured during most of 2009-2011. The pH value of the lake water was measured at 0.01, slightly "less" acidic than during November 2011 (pH -0.4). The lake volume continued to decrease and its level dropped by 1.16 m between 25 Jan and 24 Feb. Concentrations of sulphate and chlorine increased.

source(www.volcanodiscovery.com... vity-and-sporadic-s.html