25% chance of M-class Flare over next 48 hours

Just thought I'd give a heads up that theres a massive sunspot coming in line with earth. The actual sunspot is twice the width of the earth and there is a higher than usual probability for an M-class flare

As we all know, there has been comparisons linking these sunpots to earthquakes and several other phenomenon. Please keep your eyes open for any events in the next 48 hours that might relate to this sunspot

Also, a solar wind stream, coming from the sun is due to hit on the 21st.

I am fairly confident we will have some effect, to what degree is unknown.

www.spaceweather.com...

reply to post by ADUB77




Wow, that is one huge sunspot!! Class M sounds serious, but 25% chance must not be too serious or we would here more about it maybe? Not sure, Phage will probably break it down for perspective, but thanks for the post

spec

reply to post by ADUB77


Hi there! Thanks for the heads up! Sorry if I sound like a noob but how strong is a M-class Flare and what it reallys means if it actually comes through!
Again thanks for sharing.

Regards,

ringht_n_wrong

reply to post by ringht_n_wrong

A M-class flare is of moderate intensity. The only noticeable effects may be intermittent disruption of radio communications.

While sunspot No. 1108 is one of the largest we've seen in the current solar cycle, it is far from being considered "massive". Here is 1108:


Here is a big 'un.

reply to post by Phage

Phage, I was wondering if sun activity is in any way predictable and if so, are there any future dates where an X class flare is expected, one that could face us? Can there be multiple flares occurring simultaneously, as in 2 or more M's going on at the same time? My guess it there is constant flares going on but I'm not sure. Just curious, thanks.

spec

reply to post by speculativeoptimist

We don't really have any way to predict solar activity more than a day or so in advance (but there is some progress being made). Even then, like predicting the weather, it depends on observations of existing conditions and is a matter of probabilities rather than certainties.

Yes, there can be multiple flares occurring at the same time (from different locations on the Sun). But for now 1108 seems to be the only area likely to produce much of anything.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by ringht_n_wrong

 

Here is a big 'un.

Hey buddy...thx for quick explanation! So I'm assuming that a big sun spot means we're in trouble? What would be the implications of a sun spot that was 10% of the Suns mass? Just asking!
Thanks for taking the time to answer those....really appreciate it!

Regards,

ringht_n_wrong

reply to post by ringht_n_wrong

A large sunspot generally indicates more activity but size isn't everything. The characteristics of the magnetic fields within the sunspot are really more important.

I saw this sunspot using software that I created that downloads and views live images of the sun from NASA. I didn't think to save the image to my hard-drive though. Here's a photograph of it as of today, September 18, 2010.

Phage, Ive seen around the net that some talk about an Y class flare, can you tell if that is the Case or not ?
I think it isnt the case, but thought I'd ask...
What is the highest X-Class ?

reply to post by ChemBreather

C, B, and M class flares each go up to level 9. The X-class is open ended. The greatest recorded being an X20, on April 2, 2001. No Y class.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by ChemBreather

 

. The greatest recorded being an X20, on April 2, 2001. No Y class.

edit on 9/18/2010 by Phage because: (no reason given)

And what damage this X20 cause on earth back then? I seriously can't recall anything terribly bad happening around then besides my ex-girlfriend breaking up with me right around that time!

Regards,

ringht_n_wrong

I am more interested to see what events transpire from now untill Sept. 21st, which is the indicated date of the solar stream arrival. And more specifically, the next 48 hours, to see what, if any, effects happen if a sudden burst does happen.

As well Sept 21st is United Nations international day of peace...but that is just a coincidence, right?

reply to post by ADUB77

The probability of an M class flare has been lowered to 10%. There are very low chances (1%, they never say 0%) of a geomagnetic storm in the next three days.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

We have a combination of Jupiter's proximity, a cornonal hole, and a giant sunspot. You're right that the probability is low, but that is when only considering one factor

reply to post by ADUB77

Jupiter's proximity? Jupiter is 4 times farther away from us than the Sun is. Exactly what influence do you think that would have?

A moderately sized sunspot (not a "giant sunspot") which has a 10% chance of producing a moderate flare. What effect do you think an M class flare may have?

A coronal hole which is probably producing a fast solar wind. What effect do you think that may have when it reaches Earth?

An "and why" can be appropriately added to all of the above questions.

Thanks for all the great info - Phage you have no idea how much you have helped me along in my interest of the suns activity. I will forward all info to my Ham radio friends - they like to know when to expect possible interuptions.

reply to post by Phage


As I said earlier, I am interested in seeing what transpires from these events. What I think will happen is irrelevant.

As you know, Jupiter is as close to earth at is has been in 50 years. "Coincidentally" as msm will say, Uranus is also very close to us right now.


Do these planets proximity to the earth correlate with weather phenomonen on earth? I'm not sure.

But I will be watching I tell you that much

As above, so below

The next conjunction – on September 18th -- is in Pisces, as both Uranus-Jupiter retrograde back to the last sign of the Zodiac. This causes sparks to fly in the collective imagination. The global heart and its shared emotional experiences are awakened to its own power. This is a time of phenomenal growth for the artist, dreamer and mystic in you.

reply to post by ADUB77

Astrology? I thought Fragile Earth was a science forum. Yup, sure enough.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

When you believe in things that you don't understand,
then you suffer.

Superstition ain't the way.

-S. Wonder